11-21-13

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358442

    #76
    Where the action is: Books rooting for Falcons

    It's an NFC South battle as the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints in Thursday Night Football. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with Carbonsports.ag about the action coming in on this primetime matchup and where the odds could end up come kickoff Thursday night.

    New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +8, Move: +10

    This week's Thursday night game is all about two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. The rivals opened the season against one another with the Saints winning 23-17 at home and covering as 3.5-point faves.

    Depending on the wagering outlet, the Saints opened anywhere from -7 to -9.5 and action had come flooding in on the road fave.

    According to Stewart, even saying "flooding in" is a bit of an understatement.

    "Literally every single bet wrote at 8 was on the Saints and we quickly went to 8.5, which really didn't stop the bleeding so early Monday morning we went to Saints -9," Stewart told Covers. "At that price we started to see a bit of Falcons money but certainly not enough to overcome our liability on the Saints."

    Sharps have come in to take the points at the current number, but according to Stewart, 70 percent of the action coming in is on the Saints.

    "There's no way we'll go to 10.5 in this game as we'd really open ourselves up to being middled," Stewart says. "I'm sure our sharper bettors are waiting for that but it's not going to happen."

    Stewart and his book opened the total at 53.5, which has produced solid two-way action.

    "We literally can't lose money on the total at this point," Stewart said. "We've written a ton of Saints to over parlays, so if that's the result tonight then we're going to get crushed. But as it stands this morning, we're going to be rooting hard for the Falcons to stay within a TD of the Saints tonight."
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358442

      #77
      al demarco

      5 dime - central florida
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358442

        #78
        Ed Meyer's Pick Pack
        NFL Thursday Picks

        Guaranteed Plays
        Matchup: New Orleans at Atlanta
        Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
        Play: Over (52.5 -105)
        Line Source: 5Dimes
        Posted on: November 21, 2013 @ 7:41:46 AM EST

        The key to handicapping this total is the degree to which the Falcons will put up a fight. Are the going to adopt the strategy of running the ball in an attempt to minimize the time that the Saints’ offense is on the field or are they going to throw the ball in an attempt to outscore the Saints? If the coaching staff is smart, they should realize that their best chance of winning is taking risks. We like the OVER.
        Atlanta ran for 152 yards and had 420 yards of offense last week against the Bucs. They had 24 first downs and converted only ONE third down. This means that they were moving the ball down the field quickly with chunks of yardage, moving the chains on first and second down. Nine different Falcons caught passes, although Roddy White only had three for a total of 36 yards. Their rushing stat qualifies them for a nice system that states, “Home dogs are 71-30 OU in the history of the database when they are off a loss in which they rushed for 150-plus yards. The SDQL is a compact:
        HD and p:L and p:RY>=150
        This system is 5-1 OU this season with the lone loss the Dolphins – Bengals game that finished at 22-20 on a safety in overtime with the OU line at 43.
        As a team, Atlanta is 6-0 OU (+11.17 ppg) as a home dog when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays season-to-date and 8-0 OU as a dog after road game in which they allowed at least 8 points more than their season-to-date average.
        It is also worth mentioning that the Falcons are 7-0 OU after a game in which Roddy White didn't have reception for more than 20 yards, going over by an average of 11.2 ppg. The SDQL text is:
        Roddy White:p:longest reception<=20 and date>=20130101
        The Saints are 6-0 OU (+13.25 ppg) after beating the 49ers and 8-0 OU after a home game in which Darren Sproles had positive receiving yardage, but did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for the latter of these two is:
        Darren Sproles:p:longest reception<20 and p:H and Darren Sproles:p:receiving yards>0 and date>=20111030
        Note that the length of Sproles’ longest catch at home in their previous game has been a perfect predictor of the Saints’ OU result, as the Saints are 0-7 OU (-9.36 ppg) after a home game in which Darren Sproles had a reception of MORE than 20 yards. The SDQL for this one is:
        Darren Sproles:p:longest reception>20 and p:H and Darren Sproles:p:receiving yards>0 and date>=20111030
        Note the reversed greater than/less than symbol in the first query.
        If the Falcons lose here, they will go down fighting by throwing the ball aggressively. They might fake a punt, go for it on fourth down, try a flea-flicker. Their defense has allowed 34, 33 and 41 over the past three weeks to the Panthers, Seahawks and Bucs and they were on the field a long time last week. Atlanta is allowing an NFC worst 67.1% completion rate and they are dead last in the entire league in scores per possession, allowing their opponents to score points on 54.55% of their possessions! They can’t possibly be thinking that they are going to hold the Saints to something like 24 points. Atlanta must be aggressive on every offensive possession and this should get it over this number.
        MTi’s FORECAST: New Orleans 35 ATLANTA 31
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358442

          #79
          BANKROLL SPORTS

          Today's Premium Member Releases
          (All Game Times Are Listed In Eastern Standard Time)
          Note: Date of Releases Noted in Top Right Panel of Page
          10* Saints @ Falccons Under 53 (NFL) 8:25pm ET
          Current Line @ 5dimes - Get an Exclusive 50% Free Play Bonus By Clicking Here!
          (5 Dimes Sportsbook & Casino Been Accepting High Limits & Making Fast Payments)
          5* Central Florida Golden Knights -17.5 (CFB)
          4* Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (NBA)
          4* Florida Gators -13 (CBB)
          4* Washington Huskies +8 (CBB)
          3* Florida State Seminoles +7.5 (CBB)
          2* Niagara Purple Eagles +4 (CBB)
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358442

            #80
            LV wiseguys

            UNLV 3.5
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358442

              #81
              CKO Newsletter
              Top Play C.Fla. 42 to 15
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358442

                #82
                Ecks and Bacon

                Ben lee lost on Wednesday with the Flames -$118/Blue Jackets.

                For Thursday E&B like Central Florida -17/Rutgers.

                Ecks and Bacon is 0-4 -$214 for the week and 11-18-2 -$373.

                All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358442

                  #83
                  Alex Smart


                  CBB-

                  ADDED:
                  9* Middle Tennesse State+11.5 -110


                  CFB-

                  ADDED: 9* UNLV/Air Force under 60 -105
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358442

                    #84
                    Sports Junke

                    NBA: Bulls vs Denver (10:30 pm est.)

                    $500 NBA Play: Denver +1 (5dimes) vs Bulls
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358442

                      #85
                      Gold sheet Newsletter

                      New Orleans 36
                      Atlanta 20

                      C.Fla 42
                      Rt 17

                      Rice 48 to 23

                      A.F44 to 38
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358442

                        #86
                        SBP Original NBA

                        10:30 PM

                        703. Chicago Bulls -1
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358442

                          #87
                          Joey Cassano

                          Falcons +8.5
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358442

                            #88
                            SabertStxVii 2013 CFB Picks – Week 13

                            .5* Units, UNLV ML +120 vs Air Force
                            .5* Units, UNLV/Air Force OVER 60
                            3* Units, Duke -5.5 vs Wake
                            1.5* Units, Wyoming -6.5 vs Hawaii
                            More to come…

                            .5* Units, UNLV ML vs Air Force
                            .5* Units, UNLV/Air Force OVER 60
                            Don’t have much to say about this one. 2 of the worst defense in NCAA so this one is going over. UNLV is used to playing the option from their New Mexico game. Air Force is just bad. Don’t think they have a win in them, and UNLV is playing for bowl eligibility the next two games. I think that the cold could be bad for the Vegas boys, but I see them pulling out a win here.
                            Final Score
                            UNLV 41, AF 31
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358442

                              #89
                              Pezgordo 2013 College Football Picks – YTD: 32-26 (+4.18 units)
                              114 UNLV – Air Force OVER 60 (0.50 units)
                              Will attempt to make up our bad beat MAC loss from Tuesday. Two of the worst D’s in the MWC will face each other in Colorado Springs tonight. UNLV is allowing 42, 37, 38, 22, 34 & 38 in MWC play (36.78 ppg overall vs teams that avg 30.17 ppg = +6.60)
                              Air Force is allowing 52, 42, 56, 45, 27 & 45 in MWC play (40.89 ppg overall vs teams that avg 30.16 ppg = +10.73.
                              If offense wins the day tonight, both of these teams will score in the mid to upper – 30′s. Cold and light snow are in the forecast, and 59 is a key number, so I will keep this one a 1/2 unit wager and hope we can enter the weekend 1-1 .
                              Air Force 37, UNLV 35
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 358442

                                #90
                                GoSooners CFB Picks Week 13 YTD: 37-30 (+4.00 Units)
                                1 Unit UCF/Rutgers over 57.5 (-110)
                                UCF/Rutgers over 57.5
                                The best total that I’ve seen in these weekday games. UCF giving up a little over 24 ppg against their BCS competition. Rutgers averaging a little over 29 ppg on offense. Granted they’ve had their share of injuries this season, but it seems to be affecting their defense more than their offense, where they are still averaging a little over 400 total ypg in their last 3 games. They scored 17 on Cincy last week. And keep in mind that Cincy is now just about 100% healthy on defense, and other than Louisville is probably now better than any team in the conference on that side of the ball. I expect Rutgers to have more success moving the ball this week. Nova should have plenty of success against a UCF defense giving 240 ypg passing. And UCF should have no problem moving the ball against a depleted Rutgers pass D giving up a whopping 361 YPG. UCF coming back home with a short 5 day rest after playing a full 60 minute highlight reel game against Temple in which they gave up 518 yards on defense. I’ll be surprised if they can follow that game up with a strong defensive effort tonight . I look for a mini-shootout 38-24 ish type of game.
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