11-24-13

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Carolina at Miami (Sunday 11/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -4 (-110) at bookmaker

Four weeks ago, sitting at 3-3, I stated on ESPN that the Carolina Panthers were solidly a top 10 team. Since then they have won four straight games both straight-up and against the spread but amazingly they are still under the radar. Some claimed that their wins came against weak teams, but the last two weeks they added San Francisco and New England to their victims list. Yet still the respect is low. If other big name NFL teams had reeled off six straight wins SU and ATS, they would be posted as a much bigger favorite here. Yet, we get one of the best teams in the league facing a bad team and laying less than a touchdown. That's value you don't often see in the NFL. Carolina has played consistent defense all season, but what they have added now is a consistent offense. That has been even more true when they face a team that is .500 or worse, like the Dolphins. Carolina's last five games vs. a .500 or less team has seen them produce 34, 31, 30, 35 and 28 points - an average of 31.6 points per game. Miami started the season 3-0, but have not been the same team since, as they are just 2-5 in their last seven games. The Carolina offense should have no problems doing what they have done against pedestrian teams, as Miami has allowed 20 or more points to eight of their last nine opponents. Carolina is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. Make the play on Carolina.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

4.5* on TENNESSEE

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goodfella

new england

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Northcoast

Total Pow - Cowboys / Giants Over 45.5

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Nelly's Football - NFL Sunday, Nov. 24
#215 San Diego Chargers +5 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CT1*
#218 Miami Dolphins +4.5 over Carolina Panthers 12:00 PM CT1*
#222 St. Louis Rams -1 over Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CT

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BEST Football - NFL Sunday, Nov. 24

10* #225 Tennessee Titans PK over Oakland Raider

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CFL Grey Cup: What bettors need to know

Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (-6.5, 52.5)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Saskatchewan Roughriders took very different routes to Sunday’s 101st Grey Cup final. Hamilton began its season plagued by injuries and uncertainty but is 11-4 since the end of July as veteran quarterback Henry Burris tries for his third Grey Cup championship. The Roughriders jumped out to a franchise-best 8-1 start before losing control of the West Division with some late-season stumbles, but recovered for two hard-fought playoff victories as they try to become the third consecutive team to win a Grey Cup at home.

The Tiger-Cats are making their first Grey Cup appearance since 1999, when they beat Calgary 32-21 for their eighth championship. Saskatchewan is making its fourth Grey Cup final appearance in seven seasons after losing back-to-back finals in 2009 and 2010. The Roughriders last won the Cup in 2007, when they were coached by Kent Austin, who returned to the CFL this season to coach Hamilton and has led the Tiger-Cats to a decisive matchup against his old team.

TV: 6 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE: The Riders opened -5 and are now -6.5. The total opened 54 and is down to 52.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (12-8): Burris led the league in passing yards this season in part because of his deep and talented receiving corps, including Andy Fantuz, who had 114 yards on 11 catches against Toronto in the East final. Bakari Grant and Greg Ellingson have also been reliable targets for Burris, while rookie running back C.J. Gable has proven a capable receiver with 598 yards in the regular season. Linebackers Jamall Johnson, Brandon Isaac and Simoni Lawrence have gelled over the season to form the core of a versatile defense that appears ready for any challenge.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (13-7): Durant and running back Kory Sheets have been in top form through the first two playoff games, with Durant completing 43-of-53 passes for 550 yards and five touchdowns (while also scrambling for 115 yards on 10 carries) and Sheets rushing for 245 yards and a touchdown. Chris Getzlaf caught a touchdown in the West final despite playing with a knee injury, while Weston Dressler had 116 yards and a touchdown on five catches and Taj Smith added 60 receiving yards. Defensive end Ricky Foley has Saskatchewan’s only sack of the playoffs, while defensive tackle Jermaine McElveen caught a rare interception in the West final.

TRENDS:

* Tiger-Cats are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in Roughriders last eight games overall.
* Tiger-Cats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Roughriders are 2-0-2 ATS in their last four playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Austin won Grey Cups with Saskatchewan as a player (in 1989) and a coach (2007).

2. Durant was on the sideline as a backup when the Roughriders won the 2007 Grey Cup.

3. Saskatchewan swept Hamilton in a home-and-home series early in the regular season.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 12's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 12.

Most passing yards

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)

Cam Newton threw for 209 yards and three touchdowns in Monday's win over the Patriots, needing to complete just shy of 68 percent of his passes to do so. I can't help but feel that's as much as we can expect from him in terms of the passing game in this conservative offense.

Ryan Tannehill has a little more responsibility lately as the Dolphins’ ground game remains stuck in neutral. Tannehill has thrown for over 200 yards in three straight and eight of 10 games overall this season. The Panthers’ pass defense has been stout, but I expect that Tannehill will be given more than enough opportunity in terms of play-calling to outgun Newton.

Take: Tannehill

Josh McCown (Chicago Bears) vs. Kellen Clemens (St. Louis Rams)

The Bears eked out an overtime win over the Ravens last Sunday and while Josh McCown didn't make too many mistakes, he was only asked to be a game manager in poor weather conditions. This week, the conditions will be much more favorable under the dome in St. Louis, but I'm not sure McCown will fare much better in terms of passing yardage. I expect McCown to be under pressure much of the day, as the Rams defense, particularly up front, remains an underrated unit.

Believe it or not, the big play has returned to the Rams offense in the absence of injured QB Sam Bradford. Kellen Clemens has filled in admirably, throwing for 457 yards over the last two games combined. The Bears defense may be opportunistic, but it's not dominant by any means. Clemens won't have a monster day, but he'll do enough through the air to cash this prop.

Take: Clemens

Most rushing yards

Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) vs. Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)

Adrian Peterson continues to play hurt and with a weak supporting cast around him, he's finding no relief from opposing defenses. Over the last two games, Peterson has gained only 140 yards on 41 carries. While the Packers defense has been inconsistent, I expect them to rise to the occasion off three straight losses.

Like Peterson, Eddie Lacy is also coming off a poor performance last Sunday. Given how well he's performed at home this season, I'm counting on a strong bounce-back performance here. The Packers will certainly lean on Lacy with Aaron Rodgers expected to miss at least one more game. While the Vikings have been tough against the run, you have to question whether they've lost their will following another blowout loss and playing on the road for the second straight week.

Take: Lacy

Most pass receptions

T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)

The Colts defense has suffered steady regression in recent weeks and I'm not convinced that an extended week of preparation will have served as the cure for what ails them.

Larry Fitzgerald may be mired in another down year by his standards, but that doesn't mean he won't continue to play a prominent role in the Cardinals offense moving forward. He had nine pass targets last Sunday and I really like the way he matches up against the Colts down-trodden secondary.

After back-to-back monster performances, T.Y. Hilton came back to Earth in last week's game against the Titans, hauling in only five catches. That's been the norm this season. He's made five catches or less in seven of 10 games. Against a strong Cardinals secondary, I don't envision him finding much open field.

Take: Fitzgerald

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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Several football teams will be looking to strengthen their cause for a playoff spot in Week 12 of the NFL schedule. We talk to Aron Black of bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where the lines could close come kickoff:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - Open: -9.5, Move: -8

The Lions are coming off a very disappointing loss last week with a big concern being the performance of the offense. Matthew Stafford and the offense struggled in the loss to the Steelers and could not put a point on the board in the third and fourth quarters.

"Tampa Bay has been resurgent in the last couple of weeks with better defense and a much more established running game, which will be in for a big test against a stingy Lions run defense," says Black. "Action has been going more with the Bucs + points at about a 2-to-1 clip, with Detroit seeing more action as a SU parlay banker."

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders - Open: -1.5, Move: +1

Though it may not seem like it, considering the teams featured, this game could be an important one for the AFC playoff picture with the loser probably destined for the golf course come playoff time. Raiders QB Matt McGloin played quite well in his debut and could be under center once again for the silver and black.

"One factor that will sway the line in Oakland's favor is if Terrelle Pryor can suit up," Black tells Covers. "He's reported to be the backup, and may possibly see the field in certain scenarios, or take the field if McGloin struggles. Given the injuries on both sides, it's a game that isn't getting any sustained action but so far it's pretty split. I expect that we will see Oakland action as the game draws closer."

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The subplot here is Cardinals coach Bruce Arians facing the team he served as interim coach when Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia. The Colts are facing some injury concerns and it's the Cards that have been a popular play among bettors since this line opened.

"Action has been loving the Cards by about a 3-to-1 clip, but SU sees more Indy action as the road dog," Black said. "The total has creeped up and sees Over play, as most non-conference games do."

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Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

Pittsburgh is riding a resurgent Ben Roethlisberger, who was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 367 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Roethlisberger is 15-1 as a starter against the Browns and has 24 TDs and 10 interceptions against them. The defense has played inconsistently, holding six opponents under 300 total yards and giving up 393 or more in its other four games.

Cleveland has won three of its last four home games but stumbled on the road last week, committing four turnovers in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati. The defense has kept the Browns competitive, ranking fifth in total yards (306.5) and in the top eight against both the run and the pass. It's another story on offense, where Brandon Weeden's ineffectiveness and Brian Hoyer's knee injury have forced the Browns to turn to veteran Jason Campbell.
LINE: Cleveland opened -2 but has been bet down to -1. The total is down from 41.5 to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 40 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -2
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48.5)

While Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdowns (11), Tampa Bay believes cornerback Darrelle Revis is more than up to the task of guarding him. The two All-Pros have tangled once before, with Revis limiting Johnson to one catch for 13 yards in a meeting four years ago. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season.

Reggie Bush fumbled twice - losing one - to find himself on the bench before receiving limited work when backup Joique Bell suffered an Achilles injury. Bush struggled on Sunday - as he has in all four of the team's losses - and has combined for at least 100 yards rushing and receiving in all of Detroit's wins. Bush, who still has the confidence of head coach Jim Schwartz, has since promised he won't fumble again this season.

LINE: Detroit opened -10 but has been bet down to -9.5. The total has held steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+5.0) + Detroit (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -11
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Detroit's previous 26 games following an ATS loss.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)

Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.

Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.

LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5
TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards

Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).

LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1, 45)

McCown's emergence is in line with an emerging theme in Chicago - a number of key players have been lost to injury but Marc Trestman's squad remains in the thick of the playoff race. Star linebacker Lance Briggs remains out with a shoulder injury but defensive end Shea McClellin (hamstring) went through a full practice on Thursday. Fellow defensive linemen Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea are expected to miss Sunday's game.

The Rams still have faint hopes of getting into the wild-card mix, although they will need lots of help and some upsets in a stretch run that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and a home game against New Orleans. That makes the meeting with the Bears a virtual must-win, and to find success St. Louis may lean heavily on standout rookie running back Zac Stacy, who has averaged 107.7 yards in the last three games.

LINE: Game opened as a pick before being bet up to St. Louis -1. The total is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + St. Louis (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)

New York is the first team to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games of the season and is due for a victory if that pattern holds. The Jets have been outscored by 85 points - worse than every AFC team except the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars - and have recorded each of their five wins by a touchdown or fewer thanks to a strong running game on offense and a strong defense against the run on the other side.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl hangover is threatening to knock it out of the playoff hunt and tight losses have been the biggest concern. The Ravens dropped a 23-20 overtime decision at Chicago last week and their last five losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. Joe Flacco has much more experience than Jets counterpart Geno Smith, but he is looking just as lost recently with four interceptions in the last two games.

LINE: Ravens have held as 3.5-point faves. The total is down one point to 39.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.5) - Baltimore (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -3.5
TRENDS:

* Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

LINE: Chiefs opened -5 but have dropped to -4. The total is up a half-point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+1.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -7.5
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.
* Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC West.
* Under is 13-3 in Kansas City's last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)

Carolina's defense has quietly had a terrific season, allowing 24 points or less in all 10 games and yielding 12.8 points on average during the six-game winning streak. That said, standout defensive end Charles Johnson got leg-whipped against the Patriots and could be unavailable for Sunday's contest. One player who will definitely be healthy is wideout Steve Smith, who has 257 yards and four touchdowns in his last two matchups with Miami.

Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season. Signed to a five-year, $60 million deal during the offseason, Mike Wallace only has one touchdown on the year and has totaled eight catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks. Miami has allowed 18.3 points over its last three contests.

LINE: Panthers opened at -3.5 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Miami (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -5
TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Carolina's last 10 games on grass.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)

Fitzpatrick has compiled a passer rating of 111.0-plus in each of his last two starts, completing 44-of-61 for 486 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson continues to display a maddening inconsistency, failing to surpass 39 yards rushing in five of the last seven but putting together a pair of two-TD performances in two of the past three contests.

McGloin, an undrafted free agent out of Penn State, was 18-of-32 for 197 yards in subbing for Terrelle Pryor, who was out with a knee injury. McGloin isn't the only backup to come up big for Oakland - running back Rashad Jennings rushed for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown against Houston and has piled up 340 yards on the ground over the past three games in filling in for oft-injured Darren McFadden (hamstring).

LINE: Titans opened -1.5 but have been bet down to -1. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.0) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -1.5
TRENDS:

* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 5-0 in Oakland's last five home games vs. teams with losing road records.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 45)

Indianapolis holds a three-game lead over the Tennessee Titans in one of the least-competitive division races going. The Colts have done well against the top of the NFC West, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, but were embarrassed 38-8 at home by the St. Louis Rams in Week 10. Indianapolis bounced back from that with a 30-27 road triumph at Tennessee as Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards and a pair of scores.

Arizona has won three straight to put itself back on the wild-card map and is rolling as Carson Palmer takes better care of the football. The veteran quarterback has thrown for six touchdowns and two interceptions during the winning streak and passed for 419 yards without throwing a pick in last week’s 27-14 win at Jacksonville. Cardinals OLB John Abraham has seven sacks in the last four contests.

LINE: The Cards opened -1 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-3.5) + Arizona (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5
TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
* Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-2 in Indianapolis' last nine games on grass.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)

A defense that was carved up by New Orleans and Detroit will be under the gun due to the absence of injured linebackers Sean Lee and Jason Durant. Quarterback Tony Romo is routinely a lightning rod for criticism, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns versus only six interceptions and has played exceptionally well against the Giants with 12 TD passes and a 117.7 rating in his last four meetings.

Eli Manning threw three interceptions and New York committed six turnovers in a 36-31 season-opening loss but still managed to make it a game as Victor Cruz caught three touchdown passes. Manning leads the league with 17 interceptions, although he has thrown only two in the past four games and finally has a semblance of a ground game with the return of running back Andre Brown from a broken leg.

LINE: Giants holding at -1. The total is down 1.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 18 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-2.0) - New York (0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -1
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 12.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 14-2 in New York's last 16 games following an ATS win.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches).

New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola.

LINE: Broncos have held at -1. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 15 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) + New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.5
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* Broncos are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 12 of NFL football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Browns CB Joe Haden will be lined up against Steelers WR Antonio Brown Sunday. Haden held Bengals star-WR A.J. Green to two catches and seven yards last week.

- Pittsburgh is beginning to pick up the tempo on offense. The Steelers are averaging 71 plays per game over their last three games. For the season, they are averaging 64.8.

- Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season - and two in four of his last six. Glennon will face Detroit's 30th-ranked pass defense on Sunday.

- Detroit's offense struggled mightily in the second half of last week's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will welcome the (probable) return of WR Nate Burleson to the huddle. It will, at the very least, alleviate some of the pressure that Calvin Johnson has seen from opposing secondaries.

- An NFC North rivalry pits the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers Sunday. The Vikes are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Lambeau Field.

- The Packers have lost back-to-back games at home and haven't lost three straight since 2006.

- Jacksonville QB Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans in last season’s game. The Jags are currently 10-point road dogs Sunday.

- The Houston Texans have scored just two rushing touchdowns all season.

- New York Jets WR Jeremy Kerley has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

- The Baltimore Ravens have won seven-straight games SU versus the New York Jets and are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

- The top Covers consensus ATS pick is Kansas City (-4) over the San Diego Chargers (67.37 percent).

- The Kansas City Chiefs defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

- The Bears have not fared well ATS versus NFC opposition. They are 3-13 against the spread in the last 16 matchups versus teams within the same conference.

- The St. Louis Rams have been a hot Over play in recent weeks. The Rams are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games overall. At 8-2 O/U on the season, they are tied with Denver and Minnesota for the best O/U marks.

- With last week's win versus the New England Patriots, the Carolina Panthers extended their SU and ATS winning streak to six games.

- Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season.

- Colts QB Andrew Luck has completed just 56.25 percent of his passes since Reggie Wayne went down with an injury.

- The Arizona Cardinals have won three-straight games and QB Carson Palmer has tossed six TDs and just two picks during that stretch.

- The fave is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Titans and Raiders. Tennessee is currently a 1-point road fave.

- The top Covers consensus Totals pick is the Over 45 in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants (75.60 percent).

- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant hasn't scored a TD in his last four games versus the Giants.

- Tom Brady leads the all-time matchup versus Peyton Manning 9-4 SU and 6-5-2 ATS.

- The Pats have allowed teams to score touchdowns in 70 percent of their trips in the red zone over the last three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

There is a 43 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 19 mph.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 43.5)

Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-teens with partly cloudy skies.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)

Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 16 mph. There is a small chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-30s.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)

There is a 40 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)

Temperatures will be in the high-20s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 17 mph.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

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English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Sunday has a pair of games on the board and a few marquee clubs being featured. After Southampton's loss to Arsenal Saturday, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Manchester City will look for three points and try to get in the top four.

Manchester City v Tottenham (-143, +280, +475)

Why bet Manchester City: The Citizens will look to avenge an embarrassing loss to Sunderland prior to the international break. The club has won three and lost three in its last six matches and needs to hit a run of consistency to get itself back into the title picture.

Key players out/doubtful: Vincent Kompany, Stevan Jovetic, David Silva

Why bet Spurs: Spurs received some bad news as playmaker Christian Eriksen will be sidelined for about a month with an ankle injury. That means Lewis Holtby will probably slot behind Roberto Soldado in the No. 10 role. Which isn't such a bad thing as Holtby has played well in his time on the pitch. One of the better defensive sides in the league will be tested by City's attack, but they are certainly up to the challenge.

Key players out/doubtful: Christian Eriksen, Danny Rose, Emmanuel Adebayor

2012-13 fixture result: City 2, Spurs 1

Key betting note: Spurs have played under the 2.5 goal total in 10 of their 11 matches this season.

Cardiff v Manchester United (+500, +300, -154)

Why bet Cardiff: They only have three wins on the season, but Cardiff has beaten Man City so they are capable of pulling an upset. The Blue Birds lost to Aston Villa before the break, but a fairly solid back four is certainly capable of playing well enough to keep them in the game.

Key players out/doubtful: Andreas Cornelius

Why bet Manchester United: Following a rough start to the season, the Red Devils have gotten themselves in order. They've won three straight and four of five heading into this one and will be determined to climb back into the top four. Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney have 12 of the side's 18 goals and have played spectacularly of late.

Key players out/doubtful: Michael Carrick, Danny Welbeck, Phil Jones, Darren Fletcher

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Four of United's five away matches have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

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NFL betting: Top 5 key Week 12 injuries

With the last of the bye weeks upon us, teams are officially out of additional rest time - and judging by the Week 12 injury list, some rosters could use plenty more.

The Minnesota Vikings will have a hobbled superstar in the lineup this week, while the Washington Redskins will be missing one of their top playmakers. And the San Francisco 49ers may be on the verge of getting back one of the key members of their NFC championship team from a season ago.

Here's a look at five of the most important injuries heading into Week 12:

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (PUP, Achilles)

There's some thought that Crabtree might be activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list as early as this week after he made an appearance at practice on Thursday. The 49ers remain mum about a timetable for the standout wide receiver, who hasn't played all season after suffering an Achilles injury over the summer. It may be a stretch to expect him back Monday night - but Crabtree could be back in Week 13, a development that would greatly bolster a pass attack that ranks last in the league in yards per game (168).

San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite for the Monday nighter against the Redskins. The total is set at 47.

Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins (out, concussion)

While San Francisco goes into its tilt with Washington having known that Crabtree wouldn't be ready for Week 12, the Redskins face a key absence that is no less significant but slightly more of a surprise. Washington had hoped that Reed would be able to pass his concussion protocol in time for the game, but he remains in limbo and hasn't practiced all week. Reed has been one of quarterback Robert Griffin III's favorite targets to date - racking up 499 yards and three touchdowns - and leaves Pierre Garcon as the only pass-catching asset in Washington's arsenal.

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)

The week's most highly anticipated showdown - Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, Chapter 14 - may be missing one of the Broncos' key contributors. Thomas was limited in practice throughout the week, and interim head coach Jack Del Rio offered little information to reporters about the tight end's availability for the showdown in New England. Joel Dreessen would step into the starting role if Thomas couldn't go; the roster move would give Manning one fewer reliable option in his aerial attack, but Denver has plenty of other weapons where that is concerned.

The Broncos come into the Sunday nighter at New England as a 1-point favorite, with the total at 53.5.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (questionable, groin)

Last year's most dynamic offensive player hasn't been nearly as explosive so far in 2013 - and a nagging groin injury will likely hamper him even further. Peterson sat out Thursday's practice but returned to the field the following day and assured reporters that the ailment wouldn't keep him out of action. While the injury may have had a hand in limiting the defending rushing champion to just 140 yards on 42 carries over back-to-back weeks, he'll be facing a Green Bay defense that allows more than four yards per carry.

Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog in Green Bay on Sunday. The total is set at 43.5.

Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (probable, hamstring)

The Cowboys will have a full complement of healthy receiving options for the first time since Week 3 as Austin makes his return from a nagging hamstring injury. After it was thought that he might be ready to return as soon as Week 10, Austin was a full participant in practice this week and declared himself close to 100 percent. Austin is expected to slide into the No. 2 receiver slot opposite Dez Bryant, though he and rookie Terrance Williams will both see plenty of targets - and may provide Bryant with a break from the weekly double-teams he has faced.

Dallas is installed as a one-point underdog against the host New York Giants. The total is 45.