11-30-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
NBA Basketball 24-26-1 (-8.45u)

Over Wizards 195.5 -110 (B)

NCAA Basketball 12-21-2 (-7.96u)

#721 San Diego +14.0 -105 (A)
#745 UTEP +12.0 -110 (C)

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Friends of Mike Lee:

• Hawks +3.5 ****
• Bulls -3.5 ***
• Celtics -2 ***
• Rockets/Spurs ↑205.5 ***
• North Carolina State -9.5 ****
• Pittsburgh -18.5 ***
• Nebraska -17 ***
• South Alabama +8 ***

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J Clifton Sports

CBB
Pitt
Nebraska
So Alabama
NC State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Week 14 of the college football schedule is a biggie. Several of the most heated, storied and best rivalries will have new chapters written in stadiums from coast to coast.

We talk to oddsmakers about the biggest line moves on Saturday’s NCAAF board:

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers - Open: +11, Move: +10.5, Move: +11

The Iron Bowl. Despite the past four winners going on to be crowned National Champs, this year's version could be the most important in some time. The Tide opened as 10.5-point faves at most outlets and action seems to be split down the middle.

"We opened Alabama -11, but most of the initial action was on the dog so we dropped it down to 10.5," says Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "At 10.5, we booked sharp action on the favorite and moved it back to 11 and that’s our current number. We’ve booked this game pretty even, but I suspect more of our recreational players are going to take the points with Auburn."

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks - Open: -5, Move: -3

Despite being 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings with their bitter in-state rivals, action has come in and backed Clemson trimming the spread all week. The Tigers have been hot recently, however. They've won four-straight games SU and covered the spread in their last three.

"We opened South Carolina -5 and all the early money was on the dog, so we quickly went to 4.5 and eventually 4," Childs says. "We then booked sharp action on Clemson so we basically skipped going to 3.5 and went straight to South Carolina -3. Over 75 percent of the action is on Clemson but since going to 3, we’re seeing quite a bit of money starting to show on South Carolina."

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines - Open: +12, Move: +16

Since opening, the line has moved towards the favored Buckeyes. Ohio State is still in contention but needs a loss from one of the programs above them. Sill, they need to take care of their own business against the hated Wolverines.

"This line has been creeping further and further to Ohio State, and action has gone with them from 12.5 to 15.5 at about a 3-to-1 ATS clip," says Aron Black of Bet365. "Michigan can play spoiler to Ohio State's BCS aspirations, but they are in tough against a very good Buckeyes team."

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs - Open: +13, Move: +15

Childs confirms that this matchup will be one of the biggest decisions for his book as Baylor backers have come fast and furious supplying 90 percent of the action. The Bears were throttled by Oklahoma State one week ago, but are a dynamite 8-2 ATS on the season.

"We opened Baylor -13 and all the money so far has been on Baylor," says Childs. "We went to 13.5, then 13.5 -115 and -13.5 -120, before going to that key number of -14. But that didn’t stop the bleeding and we eventually went to 14.5 and just this morning we went to Baylor -15."

Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators - Open: +27.5, Move: +27.5

The Gators would love to play spoiler to their in-state rival, but are coming off a terrible defeat at the hands of FCS Georgia Southern. The loss is basically the icing on the Gators' awful season, but history is on their side for this annual meeting as they've won seven of the last nine. Despite that, Gator backers have been quiet all week.

"Action doesn’t seem to give the Gators much of a chance with the line going past the key number 28 to 28.5, and has loved the Seminoles by about a 4-to-1 clip ATS," says Black. "With Florida State scoring at will and keeping teams off the scoresheet, the line should stay upwards of 28."

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal - Open: -14, Move: -16.5

The Irish might be one of the most supported programs at betting windows, but that's not the case this week. The Cardinal have bee backed all week and rightly so. They have covered the last three meetings between the two programs.

"We opened Stanford -14 and all the early action was on the favorite. It didn’t take us long to get to 14.5, but that really didn’t stop the money coming in on Stanford, so we went to 15, 15.5, 16 to now we’re dealing Stanford -16.5," said Childs. "I can’t see us going much higher than 16.5 because we feel if we go to 17, wiseguys will hammer Notre Dame at that inflated number and we’d be pretty exposed to getting middle or sided."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root


Pinnacle - UCLA
Perfect Play - North Carolina
Inner Circle - Texas A&M
No Limit TCU
Millionaire South Carolina
Contrarian - UNLV
Invincible - Georgia
Upset Play - Notre Dame

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Sportsboss college foots

Colorado
Ga Tech
NW
NM St.

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Doc CBB

#720 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers -17 over Northern Illinois Huskies (1 pm)

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Wayne Root


Pinnacle: UCLA


Perfect: North Carolina
South Carolina
TCU
UNLV
Georgia

upset play= Notre Dame

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Teddy Covers

20* Middle Tennessee State

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Erin Rynning

20* Notre Dame

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NCAAB

Saturday, November 30

Washington came to NY and got beat twice, then struggled to win by 4 over Montana last game; teams are shooting 58.6% inside arc against the Huskies, very bad. Long Beach is 0-6 vs D-I teams, overscheduled once again; they're making just 27.4% on arc, 57.7% on line, while turning it over 20.6% of time. Big West road underdogs are 8-13 against spread.

Cleveland State won 69-63 at Ball State LY after trailing 18-6 at start of game; Vikings lost 68-61 at Kentucky Monday after leading by 11 with 14:17 left to play; they were outscored 27-14 on foul line- an assistant at CSU tweeted about "being cheated" by refs. Ball State lost by 19 at Utah Wednesday after losing by 1 to Butler. Horizon home faves: 4-5.

George Mason lost last two games by 16-5 points after winning its first four games; Patriots are turning ball over 23.3% of time; they're 3-0 at home, winning by 3-6-12 points. URI is 6-2 but hasn't beat anyone in top 250; they lost by 31-28 in two games against teams in top 100. The teams are both in Atlantic-13 but this isn't a conference game.

Home side won last six Utah State-BYU games; Aggies lost last three in Provo by 2-6-13 points. BYU lost two of last three games after its 4-0 start; they're 2-2 vs top 75 teams, beating Stanford/Texas. State is 5-0 with wins at UCSB/Weber State; they're making 45% from arc, 76% on line. WCC home favorites are 17-7 vs spread. MW road dogs are 7-6.

Manhattan beat Hofstra last two years, by 11-9 points; Jaspers are 3-2 after bad loss to Fordham last game. Jaspers shot 67% inside arc in LY's Hofstra game, 7-28 outside it- they're 3-0 on road, with double OT win at LaSalle. Hofstra is 2-4 with no wins over a top 240 team; they're 0-3 vs teams in top 120, losing by 28-11-10 points. MAAC favorites: 3-6.

Harvard made 21-25 from foul line in pulling away from Green Bay in Alaska semis last night; they played last two nites, TCU had Thursday off after winning Wednesday. TCU also play D-II UAA in first round- they've won last four games after 0-2 start. Crimson os shooting 28.2% on arc but is forcing turnovers 22.4% of time. Ivy favorites are 5-2.

Wake Forest is 6-1 with 87-78 loss to Kansas, but #161 USC is its only win over top 200 team; Deacons played four subs 10+ minutes, so they shouldn't be tired here. Tennessee is grabbing 46.8% of its own misses (#3 in US); they whacked Xavier by 15 after getting upset by UTEP in first round. ACC underdogs are 8-4 on neutral court. SEC favorites: 5-4

Kansas got upset in brickfest with Villanova Friday, making 2-11 on arc 15-25 on line; Jayhawks' five wins are all by 9+ points- they're shooting 58.7% inside arc. UTEP upset Tennessee in first round, then got waxed by 36 by Iowa last night; Miners are 2-3 vs D-I teams, getting swept by rival New Mexico State by 13-9 points. Big X neutral favorites are 3-8.

Can Villanova get back up after upsetting Kansas last night? Wildcats are 6-0; they're making 56% inside arc, 29.9% outside it- other than Kansas, their best win is #87 Delaware. Iowa pounded UTEP by 36 Friday, after winning in OT vs Xavier when they never led inm regulation; Hawkeyes are forcing turnovers 22% of time,, holding teams to 18.5% from arc.

Henderson had 15 points in 27:00 off bench as Ole Miss led Ga Tech by 14 at half in 77-67 win; only one Rebel played 30+ minutes in their first win over top 200 team. Penn State beat St John's in OT, with four guys playing 32:00+, two playing 40-45 minutes. Lions led by 15 with 10:47 left- they outscored Johnnies 29-7 on foul line (Frazier was 17-20).

St John's got beat basically at home (Brooklyn) last night; they're 1-2 vs teams in top 100, beating Bucknell by 4. Red Storm are making 28.6% on arc, Georgia Tech 29.2%- they're 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing both games by 10; they were down 14 at half Friday. Big East home favorites are 10-9 against spread. ACC underdogs are 11-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road.

Virginia is 6-1 with five wins over teams ranked #178 or worse; they hit 10-14 from arc in 76-73 win over SMU last night, also making 26-36 on foul line. 6-0 Missouri State is forcing turnovers 14.5% of time- they've got two neutral/road wins (ODU/A&M); Bears held A&M to 2-16 on arc last nite. MVC away underdogs are 10-9. ACC neutral faves: 12-4.

SMU is 5-2, with best win over #179 URI; Virginia made 10-14 on arc in 3-point win last night. Mustangs are holding teams to 37.2% inside arc (#1 in US) but are turning ball over 22.3% of time. Texas A&M was 6-0 vs stiffs before getting upset by Mo State Friday; Aggies are #1 in US, making 61% of shots inside arc, but only 30% of 3's. SEC dogs are 6-10.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, November 30

First Post

Hot teams
-- Wizards won five of their last seven games.
-- Grizzlies won five of last seven games, but are 1-6 vs spread at home.
-- Rockets won/covered seven of their last eight games. Spurs won 12 of last 13 games, covered four of last five.
-- Suns won four of last five games; they're 12-3-1 vs spread.
-- Celtics won three of last four games, are 7-3 vs spread on road.

Cold Teams
-- Hawks lost three of their last four games.
-- Cleveland lost eight of last nine games, covered once in last five. Bulls lost four of their last five games.
-- Nets lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six games. Mavericks three of last four.
-- Jazz is 2-15 SU, but covered six of last eight.
-- Bucks lost last 11 games (0-8 vs spread in last eight).

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Brooklyn games.
-- Six of last Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six San Antonio games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

lenny stevens
(20*)north carolina
(20*)missouri
(10*)virginia tech
(10*)southern california

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Arthur Ralph Blue Ribbons :
Stanford -14, Ohio State -16, Boston College - 2 1/2, Missouri -4, INDIANA -21

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teddy covers
20* big ticket: Middle tennessee state -22.5
10* tcu +13
10* clemson +4.5
10* unlv +3