12-2-13

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Dave Cokin's Pick Pack
NFL Monday Picks

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New Orleans at Seattle
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Seattle (-4.5 -105)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: December 2, 2013 @ 9:02:41 AM EST

There have been some real dud matchups on Monday nights this NFL season, but that's sure not the case tonight. The Saints-Seahawks hookup is pure dynamite, and the sports books here in Las Vegas should be SRO tonight. From an analytical standpoint, I don't think this is all that tough. Seattle is now the number one DVOA metric team in the league. They're also the most dominant home team in the NFL. In a game where there's so much at stake, I actually give even more weight to that home field advantage. The scant Saints edge on offense could well be compromised by all the noise that we know has been impactful in the past. The Saints have improved a great deal defensively under Rob Ryan, but Seattle is still the better stop unit. Also, don't discount the special teams aspect, which definitely favors the Seahawks. In the end, I expect a very exciting game, but one that will be won and covered by the better football team. My data says that's the Seahawks, so I'll be laying the points tonight.

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Ed Meyer's Pick Pack
NFL Monday Picks

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New Orleans at Seattle
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Over (47.0 -110)
Line Source: Wynn
Posted on: December 2, 2013 @ 8:31:53 AM EST

Sean Peyton is no dummy, he knows he had a MUCH better chance of winning an air war than a ground battle. He has the best set of offensive skill players in the league. He will test the back-ups in the Seahawks’ secondary with all manner of screens, and movement in which the running backs and tight ends line up as wide receivers. He will run the ball only when the Seahawks are expecting pass. The fact that the Saints were turnover-free last week and that this is on artificial turf points to a high-scoring game here.
Since Sean Peyton took over as their head coach in 2006, New Orleans is 8-0 OU (+9.1 ppg) as a dog on artificial turf after a win, as long as they are not undefeated on the season. The SDQL text is:
team=Saints and D and surface=artificial and p:W and NB and losses>0 and season>=2006
Yes, the Saints have gone under two straight, scoring only 23 and 17 points respectively. However, this is a BIG revenge game for Sean Peyton and the Saints, as Seattle knocked them out of the playoffs in 2010 as a double-digit underdog. It is clear to us that he had this one circled since the schedule came out and is fully aware of the noise factor in Seattle. The trends indicate that the Saints are 11-0 OU (+9.91 ppg) as a dog when they scored fewer points than expected in each of the past two weeks as long as they were not a TD-plus favorite in BOTH games. The SDQL text is:
team=Saints and D and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and (p:line>-7 or pp:line>-7) and date>=19991224
Also, New Orleans is 6-0 OU off any game in which they were turnover-free and did not suffer four-plus sacks. The SDQL text is:
team=Saints and p:TO=0 and po:sacks<4 and date>=20111218
The Seahawks have great defensive numbers, but their opponents this season have included then offensively challenged: Jaguars, Texans, Titans, Cardinals, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Vikings. The fact that they has a good defensive performance last week against the Vikings actually points to the OVER here, as they are 10-0 OU after a home game in which they had a pick-six and held their opponent to fewer than 300 passing yards. The SDQL text is:
team=Seahawks and p:interception touchdowns>0 and p:H and po:PY<300
The last time the Saints faced a decent passing attack, they allowed 34 points in Indianapolis. We expect the over-confident Seahawks to take risks on defense and this will lead to scores on both sides of the ball. The OVER is the play.
MTi’s FORECAST: New Orleans 34 SEATTLE 24

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Diamond Dog Sports

Plays 12/2

NBA Basketball 25-28-1 (-9.65u)
Under Wizards 195.0 -110 (A)

NCAA Basketball 14-22-2 (-6.51u)
#717 Vanderbilt +7.0 -110 (A)

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Charlie Sports
500
Triple Lock
seattle-4
seattle- under 48
NBA- Utah +18

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Paul Leiner


100* Jazz/Rockets Over 201


100* Western Kentucky -1.5


50* Vanderbilt +7.5

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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
SEATTLE by 17 over New Orleans

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SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over *SEATTLE by 7

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WINNING POINTS
PRO FOOTBALL
*Seattle over New Orleans by 4

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River City Sharps
CBB
Florida at UConn
3 UNITS - FLORIDA GATORS (+4.5)

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL

NEW ORLEANS (SU: 9-2, ATS: 6-5) at (450) SEATTLE (SU: 10-1, ATS: 7-4)
Game Breakdown: A pair of NFC powerhouses collide when the Saints visit the Seahawks on
Monday night. New Orleans improved to 7-0 SU versus NFC teams this year with a narrow 17-13
win in Atlanta last Thursday, marking its third straight victory (1-2 ATS). Seattle has won six
straight games (3-3 ATS) since its lone loss of the season, but will be without two top
cornerbacks in Walter Thurmond (suspension) and Brandon Browner (groin). This should give a
boost to Saints QB Drew Brees (332 passing YPG, 28 TD, 8 INT this year), but the Saints are just
1-4 ATS on the road with 21.2 PPG. Seattle has won its five home games by 17.0 PPG.

Betting System:
Home teams against the total - excellent passing team (>=7.3 YPA) vs. average passing defense
(5.9-6.7 YPA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8+ YPA in 2 straight games (42-14 Under).
Play = Under the total

Series history – Last 5 Seasons:
SEATTLE is 1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) vs. NEW ORLEANS (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.)

StatFox Six Pack:
• NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 OVER away vs. teams scoring 27+ PPG in the second half of season since
1992.
• NEW ORLEANS is 40-20 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
• NEW ORLEANS is 32-14 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since
1992.
• SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/attempt over the L3
seasons.
• SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS after a bye week since 1992.
• SEATTLE is 16-1 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the L-3
seasons.

STATFOX FORECASTER
New Orleans 20
Seattle 25

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NFL Football Play of the Day December 02, 2013 6:03 AM by GT Staff

New Orleans Saints +4½ at Seattle Seahawks at 5:40 p.m. PST

The best Monday Night game of the year as we get two very good teams fighting it out for home field throughout the playoffs. with a Saints win they will be tied with the best record, with a Seahawk win, well then it will be theirs to lose. The Saints have won nine straight Monday games and Drew Brees has gone 5-0 SU and ATS in his last five appearances in the spotlight on Monday.

449 New Orleans Saints +4½

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GamingToday's Consensus Picks December 02, 2013 5:56 AM by GT Staff

NFL Monday Night Football

449 New Orleans Saints / 450 Seattle Seahawks UNDER 47½: It will be very hard to pass in this game with the crowd noise and we see both teams playing close to the belt early in this huge game for both teams. We may see these two teams again in the playoffs but right now the are battling for home field advantage. In what will be a hard fought battle in the trenches we will play the under in what looks to be a field goal game.

NBA Basketball

709 Indiana Pacers -4 or less: Both the Pacers who have the best record in the NBA 16-1 and the Trailblazers who have surprised even their fans starting off at 13-3 played last night and both won tough road games. The play though will be Indiana to stay on a roll laying two hoops or less.

NHL Hockey

5 Philadelphia Flyers +130: Phily looks to be a real good road dog in this spot as they skate into Minnie with a two game win streak while the Wild have lost four straight games.

College Basketball

714 Iowa State -18: The 5-0 Cyclones have started the season in style going 5-0 and out scoring their opponents an average of 26 points.

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 12/2
NFL Football





New Orleans Saints +6 over the Seattle Seahawks
(Spread Bet)Overall Record: 179-156

(System Record: 179-6, Won last game)

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ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take #715 Western Kentucky (-1.5) over Bowling Green (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 2)
Bowling Green is just not a very good basketball team right now. They are absolutely brutal on
offense at the moment and they don't have a go-to guy or anything respectable on the
perimeter. Their only two wins so far this year have come against a D-II school and No. 350
Presbyterian. They just haven't proven that they can win just yet, but have lost to two teams
(South Florida and Oral Roberts) in the same neighborhood of Western Kentucky. The Toppers
have been to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments and they are much healthier and much more
cohesive this year at this point than the have been in either of the past two Novembers. Two
years ago their coach was on his way to a mid-season firing and last year half their team was on
the mend. This team played Wichita State tough on the road this year (ignore the final score;
that was a decent little game) so I don't know that playing at Bowling Green is going to rattle
them. WKU is the much better team here.

2-Unit Play. Take #721 Loyola-Marymount (-2.5) over UC-Riverside (10 p.m., Monday, Dec.
2)
In Anthony Ireland I trust. The bottom line is that Riverside is one of the worst programs in
college basketball. They are really a fringe D-I team at best. LMU's point guard is a future
professional (not an NBA player; but a pro). Marymount is the better team from the better
conference and they are going to be able to outscore Riverside in what will probably be a very
ugly game. Marymount already won a true road game at Long Beach State. LBSU is a much, much, much, much better Big West team and program than Riverside, so if the Lions can earn that
'W' they can take this one down. I expect this spread to nearly double by game time because the
public is all over LMU. But they are the right side.

1-Unit Play. Take #728 Arkansas State (-8.5) over Niagara (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 2)
Arkansas State is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games. That streak just can't continue. Not when you
are a team with the talent that the Red Wolves have. It was going to take ASU some time to get
things together. They had three starters back from the team that won the West last year. But
they added three dynamic transfers, who are now the team's three leading scorers, and it was
going to take some time for this team to come together. I think they are and that they will
continue to improve. Niagara has one guy: Antoine Mason. He's averaging over 31 points per
game - and that's not a typo. But he is a gunner. Niagara doesn't play any defense and most of
the time they just stand around and watch Mason fire away. Outside of one fluke rivalry win over
Buffalo this team has been pretty bad this year. They won't be excited - at all - for a trip down
to Arkansas coming out of a holiday break. This one has mail-it-in written all over it. Should be a
blowout.

1-Unit Play. Take #732 Oklahoma (-8.5) over Mercer (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 2)
I really, really like Oklahoma's guards. And I think that they are going to be too much for Mercer
here. Mercer is a Top 100 team in the rankings, but that is really kind of manipulating the
numbers. They have lost to teams like Ohio and Valpo, who have good RPI numbers but are
rebuilding and are not as talented as they have been. Mercer has two wins over D-II schools and
they are getting a lot of mileage out of a win over Seton Hall. Well, Seton Hall just lost to Farleigh
Dickinson as an 18-point favorite so that takes the air out of Mercer's "big win". Lon Kruger was
always good at beating down teams when he was at UNLV. He finally has a roster that looks like
those UNLV teams and I expect a similar result here. OU has a pair of 20-point home wins and a
13-point home win this year. I expect more of the same.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #728 Arkansas State (-3.5) over Niagara (8 p.m.) AND Take #732
Oklahoma (-3.5) over Mercer (9 p.m.)

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Maddux NFL

10* Seahawks -4.5