12-8-13

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Sunday's NFL Week 14 Betting Cheat Sheet


Late Action


Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)


Tennessee, which is playing its third straight road game, had its AFC South title hopes all but dashed in last week's 22-14 loss at Indianapolis and has little margin for error in the clustered playoff race. The Titans will need a big game out of running back Chris Johnson - who has only one 100-yard game this season - to keep the ball out of the hands of Manning. The Titans are desperate for a victory, trailing Baltimore and Miami by one game for the AFC's sixth seed.


The Denver Broncos have a chance to celebrate head coach John Fox's return to the sideline by clinching a playoff berth. Peyton Manning carved up the Chiefs for 403 yards and five touchdown passes - four to Eric Decker - in last week's come-from-behind victory, pushing his season totals to 41 scoring passes against only nine interceptions.


LINE: The Broncos opened -13 and are now -12. The total opened 50.5 and is now 48.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.5) - Denver (-7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Denver -13.0


TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.


St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)


St. Louis has proved to be up to the challenge against top competition, knocking off Indianapolis and Chicago in back-to-back games before falling 23-13 at San Francisco last week. Quarterback Kellen Clemens is completing only 51.7 percent of his passes since taking over for the injured Sam Bradford and could be without center Scott Wells (broken ankle) and left tackle Jake Long (head).


The Cardinals will look to continue their wild-card push at the expense of the Rams when they host their division foe on Sunday. Arizona is a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald caught two TD passes in the first meeting and has at least one TD reception in three straight games.


LINE: The Cards opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total has held at 41.5.


WEATHER: N/A


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+3.0) - Arizona (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona -8.0


TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)


The Seattle Seahawks are trying to wrap up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are three games up on the 49ers in the division with four games left and is coming off its most impressive performance yet in the 34-7 triumph over the Saints.


San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick is not having such an easy go of it in his second year as a starter and leads a passing attack that ranks 31st in the league with an average of 180.3 yards. Kaepernick is starting to come around in the last two weeks, however, with a total of 510 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back wins.


LINE: The Niners opened -2.5. The total is currently 41.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -1.5


TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.


New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)


Justin Tuck collected a career-best four sacks versus the Redskins to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Tuck's increased workload came in the absence of fellow defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who is in line to miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. New York has experienced production from its 26th-ranked running game as Andre Brown scored twice last week and has reeled in at least three receptions in each of the last three contests.


The Chargers have dropped four of their last five and committed three turnovers in last week's 17-10 setback to Cincinnati to fall one game behind Baltimore for the coveted sixth seed in the AFC. While San Diego veteran TE Antonio Gates often receives the fanfare, backup Ladarius Green has seen his snaps increase and scored in consecutive games.


LINE: The Chargers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total has held at 47.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + San Diego (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -3.0


TRENDS:
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 road games.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 46)


The Panthers surged into a tie for the division lead on the heels of an eight-game winning streak in which they have allowed only one opponent to score 20 points. Cam Newton has directed Carolina to four road victories during the eight-game run and will try to hand New Orleans it first home loss.


New Orleans' high-powered offense was limited to 188 total yards in the 34-7 drubbing in Seattle - the lowest total since Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. Brees was held to 147 yards passing last week but has eclipsed 300 yards in each of the six home games this season.


LINE: The Saints opened -4 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point from the opening 45.5.


WEATHER: N/A


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-5.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5


TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New Orleans.
* Under is 7-1 in Saints last eight vs. NFC.

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 14

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 14:

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 44.5)

Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge vs. Ruined Redskins

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows more about the NFC East than most outside the division, having waddled the sidelines in Philadelphia for 13 seasons. That inside info has shown in the Chiefs record versus NFC East teams this season, with Kansas City going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against Dallas, New York and Philadelphia.

Washington has fallen far from the class of the NFC East in just one season, lugging a 3-9 record into Week 14. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is no longer a dual-threat dynamo, having been put on a short leash as a pocket passer to protect his wonky knees. The Redskins have done a terrible job protecting him and have allowed RG3 to be sacked 15 times in the past three games - all loses SU and ATS. The Chiefs pass rush isn’t as potent as earlier in the season but still has teeth, especially with Reid exploiting Washington’s weakness.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-2.5, 40)

Raiders’ fast starts vs. Jets’ failure to launch

The Raiders don’t waste any time finding the end zone. Oakland ranks second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring – 7.2 points per opening frame – and sits eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters. The Raiders have outscored opponents 86-41 in the first 15 minutes before suffering a power outage following halftime.

If Oakland gets out to another strong start versus the Jets, a poor second half may not matter. New York has dropped three in a row, scoring a combined 18 points in those games. A QB shuffle hasn’t helped the offense at all, and Gang Green could finally be giving up on head coach Rex Ryan. New York averages just 2.6 points per first quarter – worst in the NFL – and has mustered only three total first-half points during this losing skid.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Cardinals’ QB Carson Palmer

The high point in a low season for the Rams has been the play of their front four. St. Louis has been able to bring a dominant pass rush with just its defensive linemen, especially DE Robert Quinn who is second in the NFL with 13 sacks. Quinn has three sacks on Arizona QB Carson Palmer in Week 1, helping the Rams edge the Cardinals 27-24 as 3-point home underdogs. On the season, St. Louis has 37 sacks – tied for fifth in the league.

Palmer doesn’t respond well to pressure. The aging passer runs like he’s stuck in mud and has a bad habit of relieving that pressure by throwing away interceptions. Palmer was sacked five times and threw two INTs in the loss to Philadelphia last weekend and has been crushed 11 times in the past three games. To make matters worse, RB Andre Ellington is out of action, taking away one of Palmer’s favorite check downs when things get hot.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 45.5)

Panthers’ time of possession vs. Saints’ Superdome offense

The Seahawks may have laid the blueprint for locking down the Saints during last Monday’s squash, but Carolina coach Ron Rivera may not even look to his defense to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense Sunday night. The Panthers offense can do that. Carolina tops the league in time of possession, chewing up more than 33 minutes per game, and has limited opponents to an average of 58.7 plays per game – fewest in the NFL.

New Orleans defense is improved but the backbone of the Big Easy is Brees and that potent pass game. The Saints sit second in time of possession this season - 32:30 – but held on to the football for only 26:22 in the loss to Seattle. Opponents have been trying to kill the clock in recent meetings with New Orleans, limiting it to an average of only 29:05 TOP and just over two touchdowns in the Saints last three games. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in the span.

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NFL Prop Shop

Week 14's Best Player Prop Bets

Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 14.

Most passing yards

Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)

The Chiefs have opened up their offense over the last couple of weeks, with Alex Smith passing for just shy of 600 yards. There's little reason to expect anything different this week, as they should come out aggressively against a down-trodden Redskins defense.

The Washington offense is broken. I don't think I'm the only one that holds that opinion. Last Sunday, we saw the 'Skins orchestrate a nice opening drive, but after scoring a touchdown early in the second quarter, they were lifeless the rest of the way. RGIII has been off his game all season, and his supporting cast hasn't been much better. With the Chiefs in line for a strong bounce-back performance defensively, look for Griffin's struggles to continue.

Take: Smith

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

The Colts have done everything they can to prove they can be a physical, ground-oriented offensive team this season, but it's come at the expense of Andrew Luck's numbers. Luck threw for nearly 4,400 yards last season. He's reached only 2,793 passing yards this year, with his yards per pass average dropping from 7.0 to 6.7.

Cincinnati's aerial attack has been inconsistent at best this season, but with Andy Dalton coming off back-to-back poor outings, I look for a positive response against the Colts. Note that Dalton has still thrown for over 270 yards in five of his last seven games. He and A.J. Green should be in for a big day against a Colts defense that gives up 12.5 yards per pass completion.

Take: Dalton

Most rushing yards

C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

C.J. Spiller returned to form last week against Atlanta, running for 149 yards on 15 carries in Toronto. With that being said, 77 of those yards came on a single rush. He also suffered an ankle injury in that contest, and while he should be good to go this Sunday, I don't expect him to have another big day on the ground.

Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been bright spot in an otherwise dismal season, busting out with over 300 yards rushing over his last four games. The last time we saw the Bucs play here at home, they leaned heavily on Rainey, as he carried the ball 30 times for 163 yards. They should employ a similar gameplan against a Bills defense that has given up 4.9 yards per rush over their last three contests.

Take: Rainey

Most pass receptions

Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) vs. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)

The Eagles offense has been flying high under the guidance of QB Nick Foles, and DeSean Jackson has obviously played a major role as well. With that said, I'm going to go contrarian with this play, and back Nate Burleson in his third game back from injury.

Burleson wasn't a factor in last week's win over Green Bay, but remember, just two weeks ago, he caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. The Packers keyed on him last week, but I don't expect to see him garner quite as much attention from the Eagles secondary on Sunday.

For all of the yardage, not to mention seven touchdowns, DeSean Jackson has racked up this season, he's actually been held to only 11 catches over the last three games.

Take: Burleson

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Sixth Sense
car
oak
minn

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Maddux ADDED

10* Raiders/Jets under 40
10* Cincy -6.5

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Ben Burns

Burns NFL PHI at DET PickPack Under 54
Burns NFL CIN at IND PickPack Under 43.5
Burns NFL DEN at TEN PickPack Under 49.5

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NFL Weather Report

Sunday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

*** Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with frozen rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

*** Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with frozen rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

*** Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 42)

Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the N end zone at 6 mph.

*** Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 10 mph. There is a 66 percent chance of snow.

*** Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 52)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with a 76 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

*** Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with snow and/or freezing rain. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

*** Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10, 47)

Temperatures will be in the low-30s under partly cloudy skies.

*** Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3, 40)

Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a 47 percent chance of snow.

*** Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 44)

Forecasts are calling for an 84 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be in the mid-teens.

*** Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 4 mph.

*** Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

*** New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)

Temperatures will be in the low-50s with calm conditions.

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Football Crusher

Philadelphia Eagles -140 over Detroit Lions

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Hockey Crusher

Minnesota Wild +114 over San Jose Sharks

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Basketball Crusher

Siena +7 over Canisius

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Soccer Crusher

Tigre + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina

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Northcoast

Total pow - Tennessee/Denver Under 49

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JB SPORTS wise guy contest pick CHARGERS

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Johnny Totals

100* Bengals / Colts Over 43

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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

2 UNIT = St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - RAMS +6 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
The St Louis Rams enter this Week 14 match up at 5-7 and 2-4 on the road, while the Cardinals are 7-5 on the year and 5-1 at home. These two teams met back on September 8th in St Louis with the Rams winning 27-24. St Louis has won three straight meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons, including winning outright as small underdogs in both meetings last season. Both teams are coming off hard fought losses against good teams. The Rams lost 23-13 against a very good 49ers team in San Francisco last week that broke up a 2 game winning streak, and the Cardinals lost 24-21 to Philadelphia to break up their 4 game winning streak. You can look at some of these two teams common opponents this season and see they aren't too far of one another. Both recently beat the Colts by around 30 points, the Rams lost to Seattle by 5 points at home while the Cardinals lost to them by 12 points at home, the Rams lost @SF by 10 last week and the Cards lost @SF by 12 earlier in the year, both teams took care of Houston and Jacksonville. In what should be an entertaining division game I think 6 points is too many for this Cardinals team to be giving up. The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 divisional games. Also note when these two teams meet the underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 and the road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Take the Rams with the points.