12-8-13

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Doc Sports
CBB
#821 Take Washington Huskies +13 over San Diego State Aztecs (3 pm CBSSN)

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RAS

MOST RECENT RELEASE
Rotation 821 Washington (+14) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/08/13 12:00pm PST Released at: 12/08 8:04am PST


PREVIOUS RELEASES
Rotation 847 E. Washington (+17) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 12/08/13 05:30pm PST Released at: 12/08 8:01am PST

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Arlon Sports 12/8

1* Maryland
1* Boston College

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Sharp Moves - Week 14
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

Washington +3 – No team is sharper than this. Most assume that the 9-3 Chiefs are going to be able to go on the road and take care of business against the 3-9 Redskins. It might be a good assumption, but it certainly isn't a safe one. Kansas City has dropped three games in a row, and its defensive numbers have been staggeringly bad. Remember, these Chiefs are still only a year removed from going 2-14, and they probably aren't nearly as good as 9-3 suggests they are, even after becoming the first team in NFL history to start 9-0 and then lose three straight games. There's a reason this line hasn't moved at all even with the insane quantity of bets coming in on KC.

Opening Line: Washington +3
Current Line: Washington +3
Public Betting Percentage: 81% on Kansas City

Buffalo +2.5 – It's not the sharpest play on the board in the world, but there are definitely some big hitters coming in on Buffalo this week. The Bills probably have the better of these two teams, knowing that they would have a much better record had they had QB EJ Manuel for the full season. Tampa Bay has played better ball in the third quarter of the season than it did in the first two quarters, but that doesn't mean it is justified to be favored against much of anyone right now. The fact that this one has never gotten up to a full field goal tells us that the oddsmakers are begging you to bet on the Bucs.

Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on Tampa Bay

Tennessee +12 – When you get up into these numbers beyond 10.5, it doesn't take a heck of a lot to swing the pendulum from 11 to 13. It's almost like four, five, and six in the lower numbers. The fact that the Broncos are garnering 70% of the betting action and haven't moved from this 12 number (and in some cases, have actually come down from 12.5) tells us that there are some big bets backing the Titans. From a football standpoint, it really makes some sense when you think about it. The Titans have a gritty defense, and they can run the football. Denver is coming off of the high of playing against KC, New England, and KC again. A letdown could be in order.

Opening Line: Tennessee +12
Current Line: Tennessee +12
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Denver

Carolina +3 – The Panthers are definitely a nice team to look at this weekend, especially if you believe in the power of the sharp play. The Saints are coming off of a short week of preparation and a long flight from Seattle; there's no way they practiced before Wednesday this week. Carolina has been on fire, and though most assume it is the worse of these two teams, we don't think so. There's a reason that the Panthers swept this series last season both SU and ATS.

Opening Line: Carolina +3.5
Current Line: Carolina +3
Public Betting Percentage: 60% on New Orleans

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Week 14 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Colts at Bengals (-6½, 43)

Indianapolis: 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Cincinnati: 8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS

Last week's results: Both these teams are destined to win their respective divisions, as each squad picked up a victory during Thanksgiving weekend. The Colts held off the Titans for the second time this season in a 22-14 home triumph as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' Indianapolis has now alternated wins and losses in each of the last five weeks. Cincinnati grabbed a crucial victory in a 17-10 win at San Diego, the second in a row following consecutive overtime losses.

Previous meeting result: The Bengals cruised past the Colts, 27-17 in 2011 as five-point favorites. Of course this was the awful Indianapolis club that finished 2-14 with no consistent quarterback play, but the Colts were down by three points with two minutes left until a fumble recovery by Cincinnati was returned for a touchdown to grab the cover.

Betting notes: Last week's 'under' against the Titans ended a five-game 'over' streak for the Colts, but Indianapolis has cashed three straight 'overs' on the highway. The Bengals own a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record at Paul Brown Stadium this season, while scoring a combined 90 points in its last two home blowouts.

Lions at Eagles (-3, 54)

Detroit: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS

Last week's results: The Lions snapped their nine-game Thanksgiving losing skid with a 40-10 blowout of the Packers as seven-point home favorites. The victory also ended a two-game losing streak, as Detroit took over first place in the NFC North. The Eagles held off the Cardinals, 24-21 to capture their fourth consecutive win, while picking up only their second home victory of the season.

Previous meeting result: Detroit rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to stun Philadelphia in overtime, 26-23 last October. The Lions cashed outright as 3 ½-point road 'dogs, while Matt Stafford torched the Philadelphia defense for 311 yards passing.

Betting notes: For only the second time this season, the Lions are listed in the underdog role, as Detroit was blown out at Green Bay as 10-point 'dogs, 22-9 back in Week 5. The Eagles failed to cover in the win against Arizona, as Philadelphia owns a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark at Lincoln Financial Field this season.

Dolphins at Steelers (-3½, 40½)

Miami: 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Pittsburgh: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS

Last week's results: The Dolphins continue to be a roller-coaster ride this season after dominating the Jets last Sunday, 23-3 at Met Life Stadium. Miami has alternated wins and losses in the last six games, but the Dolphins have covered four of the past five contests. The Steelers were tripped up by the Ravens on Thanksgiving night, 22-20, but managed a cover as three-point road underdogs, the fourth straight ATS win for Pittsburgh.

Previous meeting result: The Dolphins are making just their third visit to Pittsburgh since 1995, as Miami is looking to avenge a one-point defeat to Pittsburgh three seasons ago. The Steelers edged the Dolphins, 23-22 with a disputed fumble at the goal line in the closing minutes that was ruled dead. Pittsburgh kicked the go-ahead field goal, but Miami cashed as three-point home 'dogs.

Betting notes: The Steelers have won three straight home games since dropping their first two at Heinz Field this season. The Dolphins have covered three consecutive contests in the underdog role, but are just 1-3 SU/ATS the last four games played away from South Florida.

Rams at Cardinals (-6, 41½)

St. Louis: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Arizona: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS

Last week's results: The Rams saw their modest two-game winning streak come to a close in a 23-13 defeat at San Francisco. St. Louis was held to below 15 points for the fifth time this season, while cashing the 'under' for just the third time in 12 games. Arizona's rally fell short at Philadelphia, but the Cardinals grabbed a backdoor cover as 3½-point 'dogs in a 24-21 defeat. The loss was the first for Arizona since mid-October, a span of six weeks.

Previous meeting result: Arizona built a 24-13 lead in the season opener at St. Louis, but the Rams came back to stun the Cardinals, 27-24. The Rams failed to cover as 3½-point favorites, while St. Louis beat Arizona for the third straight time.

Betting notes: The Cardinals have won five of six games at University of Phoenix Stadium this season, while topping the 27-point mark in each of the last three. Since beating Arizona in Week 1, the Rams have lost each of the last three divisional contests, but St. Louis is 3-1 ATS the last four road games against NFC West opponents since 2012.

Seahawks at 49ers (-2½, 41½)

Seattle: 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS
San Francisco: 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Seahawks made a bold statement against the Saints in a potential NFC Championship preview as Seattle blasted New Orleans, 34-7 as 6½-point home favorites. Seattle has won 14 straight home contests, while winning 13 consecutive regular season games against NFC opponents. San Francisco won its second game in less than a week with a 23-13 home triumph over St. Louis, pulling off a season sweep of the Rams.

Previous meeting result: After building a 5-0 halftime lead in Week 2, the Seahawks scored 17 points in the final quarter to rout the Niners, 29-3 at CenturyLink Field. Seattle easily cashed as three-point favorites, while intercepting Colin Kaepernick three times. However, the Niners have won four consecutive meetings with the Seahawks at Candlestick Park.

Betting notes: Seattle is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record on the highway. San Francisco's defense has stepped up lately, resulting in four straight 'unders.' The Niners are the hottest team against the number recently by cashing in eight of the last nine contests.

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play #821 Take Washington Huskies +13 over San Diego State Aztecs (3 pm CBSSN) San Diego State lost their two main scorers from the last few years and they are still a strong defensive team but do not light up the scoreboard on a consistent basis. I really believe CJ Wilcox can keep the Huskies in the game by himself. These teams have met two times before and Washington has won both of them straight-up. I expect this game to be played in the sixties and thus we will take the points. SDSU is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games following a victory.

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

3 Unit Play Take #830 USC -1 over Boston College (7:00p.m., Sunday, Dec 8)
The Trojans are a perfect 4-0 at home this young season and the Trojans are coming off a big win over Xavier last Saturday. Boston College is coming off a big road loss as the Boilermakers beat BC 67-88. USC will need to step up their defense tonight and if the shoot like they did against Xavier the Trojans will still be perfect at home. Boston College is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and the Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.

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JASON SHARPE

3 Unit Play Take #832 Rutgers -2 over Seton Hall (8:00pm est):
Seton Hall has really struggled this season as many had high hopes for the Pirates. They not only lost to one of the worst teams in CBB last Sunday dropping a home game to Fairleigh Dickinson, now they have lost one of their top players in Fuquan Edwin to injury in this contest.

Rutgers also hasn't lived up to expectations to begin their year but come in off one of their better games last time out, going toe to toe on the road against George Washington. This is a team with a new coach but a ton of experienced guys who are just getting the hand of things it looks.

Take Rutgers here.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

5-Unit Play Take #831 Seton Hall (+2.5) over Rutgers (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)
I think the wrong team is favored here. Seton Hall is going to win this game. Rutgers has won just one time in its last four games. That game was against Stillman College. Rutgers shouldn't be laying points in this matchup. Seton Hall is coming off a nice win over Long Island. They have won two of three. This team will be without leader Fuquan Edwin today. But Texas transfer Sterling Gibbs is the team's leading scorer. He will pick up the slack. I like the Pirates to win a close one.

3-Unit Play Take #816 Detroit (-4.5) over Rhode Island (2 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)
This is a great game for Detroit. The Titans are at home. And they are facing a Rhode Island team that is right off a rivalry game. Rhode Island played against rival Providence this week. That was a tough, emotional game. Now the Rams have to travel and I don't think they will be good. Rhode Island is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games. Detroit is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight against the Atlantic 10. Lay the points before the sharps bet this one up.

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ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play Take #832 Rutgers (-2) over Seton Hall (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)

1-Unit Play Take #829 Boston College (+1) over USC (7 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)

1-Unit Play Take #821 Washington (+14) over San Diego State (3 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)

1-Unit Play Take #833 Iona (-6) over Fairfield (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aaron's Analysis


141 Carolina Panthers plus 3 1/2 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS



The Carolina Panthers (9-3) travel to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints (9-3) on Sunday Night Football. The Panthers will be going for their ninth straight victory, and their fifth straight on the road. They are coming off of a 27-6 dismantling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, outgaining them 426-206 and holding them to just ten first downs. As for the Saints, they are coming off of a 34-7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Their seven points and 188 yards were their least output since Sean Payton took over the reins back in 2006. Not only will they be playing on a short week entering this one, their charter flight home was delayed for about twelve hours. Despite their poor performance on Monday, beating the Saints in New Orleans is always a tall order. The last time they were beaten there was on December 30 of last year. Coincidentally, that was a 44-38 loss to the Carolina Panthers. A few months prior, the Panthers knocked off the Saints 35-27 in Charlotte. Unlike that game last December which left both teams with records of just 7-9, both teams enter this game with 9-3 records. The Panthers allow just 13.1 points per game ranking them #1 in the league, and their 289.8 yards per game allowed rank them #2. They are also #2 versus the rush, allowing just 80.3 yards per game. The Saints should struggle on the ground versus the tough rush defense of the Panthers, as they come into this one averaging just 93.3 yards per game, ranking them #23. If the Saints are unable to get anything done on the ground, their offense will become one dimensional, leaving it all up to the arm of QB Drew Brees. The Panthers could be bringing the heat on Brees as a result. Brees has been sacked 24 times this season, and the Panthers with their 39 sacks should be able to bring pressure. Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy has seven sacks, and the Panthers could get back defensive end Charles Johnson (knee) and his eight and a half sacks back for this one. The Panthers are pretty solid versus the pass as well, allowing 209.6 yards per game, ranking them #6 to counter Brees and the Saints passing offense. The Saints defense ranks just #23 versus the run, allowing 113.2 yards per game, yielding 127 yards to the Seahawks last week. The Panthers have done well on the ground, compiling 299 yards over the last two games, and their 129.3 yards per game ranks them #9. Although the Panthers are banged up in the backfield, they could be getting DeAngelo Williams (quadriceps) back for this one. Williams has gained 770 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs this season. He rushed for 210 yards and 2 TDs in the December game versus the Saints last year. Both Mike Tolbert (knee) and Jonathan Stewart (ankle) are hobbling as well, but there appears to be optimism in their status for Sunday. Tolbert scored 4 TDs versus the Saints in two games last year. He has rushed for 446 yards from scrimmage this season to go along with 6 TDs, including 89 yards versus Tampa Bay last week. Stewart has contributed 192 yards. Contributing 447 rushing yards and 6 TDs is the leader of their offense, QB Cam Newton. Rushing aside, Newton has passed for 2,616 yards, with 61.7% completions and a decent 19 to 11 TD to INT ratio. He is coming off of a 18 for 29 for 263 yards and 2 TD performance versus the Bucs. In two games versus the Saints last year, he passed for a combined 501 yards and 105 yards rushing, accounting for 2 TDs. His talented receiving corps include Steve Smith (54 catches for 632 yards and 3 TDs), tight end Greg Olsen (50 catches for 611 yards and 5 TDs), Brandon LaFell (43 catches for 531 yards and 5 TDs) and Ted Ginn (29 catches for 469 yards and 4 TDs). Although the Saints rank #4 versus the pass (206.7 yards per game allowed), they’ve showed signs of vulnerability over the last two weeks, allowing a combined 566 yards. In the two games last season, Smith combined for 6 catches and 177 yards and LaFell, 11 catches for 152 yards. Although Brees and tight end Jimmy Graham could very well put up their share of yards in this one, the Panthers with Newton and their solid defense should be able to get the job done on the road.


PANTHERS 27-21 (3 Units)

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Wayne Root

Pinnacle: San Francisco 49er's

Perfect Play: Green Bay

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Oklahoma at George Mason (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: George Mason +6 (-105) at 5Dimes

Oklahoma likes to run, but George Mason is all about defense and slowing the pace down. George Mason has allowed 54 and 68 points the last two games. George Mason has a tough one-two punch with 6-8 Marko Gujanicic and Sherrod Wright, holding South Florida to 41% shooting the last game. The Patriots are a strong bounce back team, 19-7 ATS following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma will want to run, but this game is at a neutral site and their offense is far better at home. And the Sooners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games, plus 1-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning SU record. Play George Mason.

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Strike Point Sports
7* Take #140 Cincinnati (-6) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)
7-Unit Play. Take #140 Cincinnati (-6) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 8)
Cincy has destroyed the last two teams they have played at their home field and Indianapolis is not as good as they were at the beginning of the season. The Bengals are 5-0 at home this season with wins over Pittsburgh, New England, and Green bay on their resume. I am actually quite glad that the Colts came back to beat the Titans last weekend as it kept this line below a touchdown. Do I think this point is going to come in handy in this game? No, as I see the Bengals winning by double figures, but in gambling any point helps. With just a two game lead over the Baltimore Ravens and a three game lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their division the Bengals know that every game counts and that they cannot look ahead at any point this season. This Colts team just isn't as good without Reggie Wayne and they won't be able to move the ball well versus one of the better defenses in the NFL. There is also news of bad weather in Cincinnati which doesn't help the Colts, as their running game isn't that solid, 20th in the NFL, and they are going up against the 8th best rush defense in the league. The Colts being without Wayne in bad weather simplifies their offense to an extreme that just won't get the job done. The Bengals meanwhile have a dynamic playmaker, in AJ Green, who can get open in any kind of weather, and a running game that has rushed for nearly 400 yards in their last three games. A huge stat to keep an eye on in this contest is time of possession. If a team can move the chains in bad weather they typically win and cover. The Bengals are 5th in the NFL in time of possession at nearly 33 minutes per game, while the Colts are 31st in the NFL at under 28 minutes per game. Indianapolis is just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning home record, while the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams and in this contest the favorite is just a better team. I know that the record suggests that both teams are 8-4 but the Colts are just 3-2 with wins over Houston and Tennessee (twice). When the Colts played against a team that is excellent at stopping the run (after the Wayne injury) they struggled. Arizona (4th versus the run) beat the Colts by 29 and St. Louis (15th versus the run) beat the Colts by 30. As we said before, Cincy is 8th versus the run and will easily cover this line. This has game has a 24-10 or 27-13 type feel all over it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Pipeline

20* Super Play NFC South GOY --- Saints

15* NFC South GOM --- 49ers

10* Lions