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NBA
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons (-6) 7:35 ET
5* Brooklyn Nets (+6)
We bring down much of our profit in the NBA by following short term momentum. That is exactly what is happening with each of these teams. After a brief run up, Detroit enters at 0-3 SU with a defense that has allowed 114/49 in that timeframe. With no fewer than 5 injured players, the Nets were struggling at the beginning of the week with recent streaks of 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS. The return of D. Will, Pierce and Garnett means that only Terry and Kirilenko were missing from the Nets lineup. As a result, Brooklyn enters tonight on a 3 game win streak, including last nights victory at home 102-93 vs. the Clippers. Must reduce this rating a bit, however, with the knowledge that key cog Lopez injured his ankle last night, making his availability and efficiency a major question mark for tonights contest.
OK, we know these teams get up and down the floor and score some points, but we really think this number is too inflated in this spot. This is obviously a very intense rivalry in many cases, that means teams tighten up a bit, especially in the first half. Both of these teams are exceptionally good rebounding teams (as well as FG% shooting), so if we can avoid one or both teams just shooting the lights out, then we are expecting to see limited second-chance opportunities in the game. Iowa ended a three-game losing streak to the Cyclones last year with an 80-71 home victory last December. Please note, however, that Iowa State has won the last five meetings at Ames. We think this is a really nice spot for the Under, so the Sharps say....
2-Unit Play Take 'Over' 209.0 L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City (8 p.m., Friday, Dec. 13)
I think that this is going to be a street game. The Lakers don't play any defense. And the Thunder are going to be running up and down the floor, too busy scoring to worry about playing defense. The spread suggests that this game is going to be a one-sided blowout. And I tend to agree. But I think that the total is going to be easier to exploit than the side on this one. I can see the Thunder putting up 115 or 118 all by themselves. And I think that the Lakers, with their system, will find between 98-105 points. So even on the low end this one is going to get 'over'.
3-Unit Play Take #821 Utah (+11) over Denver (9 p.m., Friday, Dec. 13)
I will take the points in this one. Utah has looked better their last two games. They just won at Sacramento by over 20 points and the offense is clicking. Utah has won four times as an underdog over their last nine games. The books have been off on this team. The Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and Denver is overrated at home. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and just 5-13 ATS when they face a team below .500.
4-Unit Play Take #824 Phoenix (-6) over Sacramento (9 p.m., Friday, Dec. 13)
I will go with the home team in this one. A lot of people don't realize that the Suns are playing very well right now. They have won three straight and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Kings were just blown out at home by the Kings. They have made some trades but are still a bad team. The Suns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 times hosting the Kings and I think that this one will be another blowout.
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