12-14-13

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Navy 31 - Army 17—This streaky rivalry series dates back to 1890 and has lately been dominated by Navy. The Midshipmen have won 11 straight by an average margin of 22 pts. and are 13-5 against the number last 18 against Army. These service academies have both relied on execution of option rush attacks to compete on the FBS stage for several years, and this season is no exception. Led by RB Terry Baggett (1072 YR, 8.2 ypc), Army ranks 2nd in rushing at 324 ypg. With QB Keenan Reynolds running for 1124 yds. and distributing the ball to 7 other backs who gained at least 226 yards, Navy is 3rd in rushing at 320 ypg. The Midshipmen have a more useful passing game, as Reynolds threw for 1028 yds. (9 per attempt) and posted an 8-2 TD-int. ratio. Bowl-bound Navy has won its last 3 this season by an average margin of 16 ppg while scoring 47 ppg.
The Middies figure to extend their winning streak against a Black Knight squad that’s just 3-8 SU and has some deficiencies on defense Navy should exploit. Army’s stop unit has faded in the 2nd half of the season, as it’s yielded 239 ypg rushing (5.6 ypc) over the last 6 games. Soph QB A.J. Schurr replaced Angel Santiago in the second half for Army against Hawaii and scored 3 TDs, threw for 122 yards, and rallied West Point back to tie the game at 28 after trailing 28-7 at halftime of an eventual 49-42 loss in Honolulu.
Schurr’s heroics, however, couldn’t make up for the fading defense, yielding 608 total yards to a then-winless Rainbow Warrior team. Speculation is rising that Army HC Rich Ellerson could be on the way out, as the Cadets are just 8-27 the last 3 seasons, and bringing in four new assistants this season did nothing to improve the team’s fortunes. Note that the last 7 in series went “under” the posted total. at Lincoln Financial field, Philadelphia, PA TV—CBS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CKO

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

11 NAVY over Army
Late Score Forecast:
10 NAVY 38 - Army 16
(at Lincoln Financial Field,
Philadelphia, PA)
Navy has dominated this venerable rivalry of service academies, winning the last 11 meetings vs. Army by an average of 22 ppg. The Midshipmen have a 13-5 spread record against the Cadets in the last 18 in the series, and that dominance should continue this season. The Navy has a powerful running game, featuring clever, athletic QB Keenan Reynolds, who rushed for 1124 yards and threw for 1028 more with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio. Reynolds is a clever ball distributor, and the deep Navy backfield boasts seven players who gained at least 226 yards this season. Army has a similar option attack, ranking second in the country in rushing behind RB Terry Baggett (1072 YR), but the Cadets don’t have much of an aerial diversion, as they are last in passing yardage. Bowl-bound Navy gathered momentum in the second half of the season behind respected HC Ken Niumatalolo, winning 4 of its last 5 SU and covering 5 of its last 6 (3-1 TY laying 7 pts. or more). The Middies won their last 3 by an average of
16 points, while scoring 47 ppg. Conversely, Army won just 3 of its first 11 games, as the Cadet defense failed down the stretch, yielding 239 ypg rushing (5.6 ypc) in its last 6 games. That doesn’t bode well facing a Navy side that runs well and can collect sole possession of the Commander in Chief’s Trophy for a third straight season with a victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Navy 31 - Army 27 - (3:00 - CBS - @ Philadelphia) -- We began last year's
analysis of this contest with the following, which is worth repeating: "Dec 1, 2001:
the date of the last time that the Cadets of Army prevailed on the field in this
Military Classic". Well, a year ago, that streak should have been snapped, but a
botched exchange on 1st down at the Middie 14 in the final minute resulted in a
fumble that killed a 70-yd Cadet (+7) drive, in 17-14 loss, despite a 370-167 RY
edge. Army has outrushed & outstatted Navy past 3 yrs. Again, both are among
the overland elites (2nd & 3rd). Knights' Baggett became first Army player in its
123-yd history to rush for 300 yds (304 vs EMich), & Mids' Reynolds became first
QB ever to rush for 7 TDs in a game (SanJoseSt). Navy just a 1-7 ATS DD fav,
(2-9 overall chalk slide). Army 4-15 ATS away, but is 3-0 ATS in series. Cadets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GREEN SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Navy (-11) Army (55) 2:00 PM
At Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Navy is already locked into the Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth in late
December playing against Middle Tennessee State. There will be no
postseason for Army and since they lost to Air Force this season they don’t
have a shot at taking the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for the first time
since 1996. It is an honor Navy has held nine of the last 11 seasons and
they will at worst retain the trophy this season. Army has covered as an
underdog in three of the last four meetings in this series with very close
games the last two years. Army actually has out-gained Navy in three
straight seasons in this rivalry though they have not won S/U since 2001.
While Rich Ellerson has not been able to sustain the mild success Army
had with a bowl trip in 2010 there does not appear to be any plans for a
change and Ellerson is one of the lowest paid FBS coaches. While Navy
does have a great defense by any stretch, the defensive edge in this
matchup appears to be dramatic. Navy has been fortunate this season with
the fewest turnovers at the FBS level however. Navy has poor numbers in
the heavy favorite role but Army simply has not been able to keep up on
offense this season, held to 20 or fewer points in five of the last 10 games.
Navy has scored 42 or more in four of the last six. NAVY BY 14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, December 14

VCU beat Northern Iowa 77-68 in Bracket Buster game couple of years ago; this is return game. Rams are 2-0 in true road games, winning by 3 at Virginia, 13 at Belmont. VCU forces turnovers 27.3% of time, #2 in US. UNI is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, blowing 18-point second half lead in OT oss to good Iowa State team on neutral floor-- best team they've beaten is #110 LaSalle. Panthers' other top 100 loss was by 14 to Maryland.

Arizona is 10-0, beating Drexel/Duke in NYC, winning at San Diego St. by 9 in only true road game; four of Wildcats' 10 wins are against teams in top 100, with #19 Duke only top 25 foe. Michigan is 1-3 vs top 100 teams but none of those games were at home- they're 3-0 at home, but vs stiffs. Michigan's only win vs top 200 team was in OT vs Florida State.

Tennessee outscored Wichita State 29-12 on foul line in 69-60 win LY in game they were down 5 with 11:05 left; Vols lost by 4 at Xavier in only true road game- they won two of three neutral court games, avenging loss to Xavier in process. Shockers are 9-0, beating BYU by 13, Saint Louis by 5 in only top 100 tilts. Vols rebound 45.3% of own misses, #2 in US.

Louisiana Tech is good mid-major that'll be heard from in March- they're 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13 at St Mary's, 9 to UL-Lafayette at home. Tech has couple of road wins vs stiffs- they force turnovers 24% of time, #11 in US. First game in eight days for 8-1 Oklahoma State team that split pair with #16 Memphis; they've got six wins by 21+ points.

Indiana beat Notre Dame 79-58 on neutral floor couple years ago, teams' only meeting in last four years; Hoosiers are 8-2, but best team they beat is Stony Brook. IU lost to UConn/Syracuse, only top 100 teams they've played. Notre Dame lost by 5 at Iowa in only true road game- they lost last game at home to North Dakota State- their best win was Delaware.

North Carolina beat Louisville/Michigan State, lost to Belmont/UAB, so they're tough to figure; Tar Heels shoot 29.5% from arc, 61.8% on line, but they also force turnovers 21.6% of time (#36 in US). UNC is 7-2 in last three games vs Kentucky, with home side winning last three, which were decided by total of five points. This is Kentucky's first true road game- they lost to Baylor in Dallas last week.

Boise State was +11 in turnovers but lost by 15 at Kentucky Tuesday, as Wildcats (67.6%) dominated paint; Broncos beat Utah 69-67 for best home win. This is first road game for 7-0 St Mary's whose best wins are over #74 la Tech, #76 North Dakota State, both by 13. Boise coach Rice is an old Gonzaga assistant, so he knows Gaels well. Mountain West home favorites are 17-14 vs spread.

Purdue lost by hoop to Butler in last meeting two years ago; Boilers are 8-2, but BC is best team they've beaten and they're not so good. Butler lost couple of 2-point games in Florida; best team they beat is Princeton by 3- they also beat Vandy/Wazzu, decent teams. Big East neutral court favorites are 5-9 vs spread. Big Dozen neutral underdogs are 3-5.

7-1 New Mexico has lot of height/experience; their only loss was by 16 to quick UMass, though UAB had them beat before Lobos squeezed out an OT win. Lobos won at New Mexico State in only true road game this year- this isn't a true road game. Kansas lost three of last four games but hasn't played in Lawrence in 22 days- they're 1-3 vs teams in top 75.

West Virginia won six of last seven games vs Marshall, beating Hard last two years by 16-10 points; this is bigger game for Marshall, which plays in smaller league. WVU lost three of last four games after Gonzaga beat them at home Tuesday; they're 6-0 vs teams ranked outside the top 100, with all wins by 13+. Marshall lost last three games, by 10-2-13 points.

Xavier won four of last six games vs city rival Cincinnati; game is played at neutral downtown arena after they had brawl at campus arena. Xavier lost by 15 to Bearcats LY; they're 1-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair with Tennessee, losing by 3 to Iowa. Bearcats forves turnovers 27% of time, #3 in country; they lost at New Mexico last week, their first road game this year. In last decade, Cincy hasn't beaten Xavier twice in row.

9-1 Illinois lost by 3 at #85 Ga Tech. only team they've played ranked above #114; they've won at UNLV, beat Auburn on neutral floor, held foes to 40.2% inside arc. Oregon has quality wins over Georgetown, Ole Miss; they're making 40.4% from arc, 57.5% inside arc, have #3 eFG% in country. This is Ducks' last game before they get PG Artis back.

BYU won last seven games with in-state rival Utah; they beat Utes by 3 LY in brickfest (teams were 13-49 from arc), won last three visits here by 20-25-19 points. Cougars won 112-103 at Stanford in only true road game; they're 2-2 on neutral floors, losing at UMass last week. Utah has played 3rd-easiest schedule so far, losing 69-67 at Boise State, the only top 150 team they've played this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Boston at Vancouver

The Bruins travel to Vancouver tonight and look to improve on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games versus Pacific Division opponents. Boston is the pick ( +100) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Los Angeles at Ottawa (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.614; Ottawa 12.518 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Over

Game 3-4: Calgary at Buffalo (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.361; Buffalo 12.660 Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-110); Under

Game 5-6: Dallas at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.695; Winnipeg 12.083 Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-120); Under

Game 7-8: Tampa Bay at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.024; New Jersey 11.077 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Over

Game 9-10: Chicago at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.450; Toronto 12.638 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 6 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Over

Game 11-12: St. Louis at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.270; Columbus 11.097 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 13-14: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.475; Detroit 12.907 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Under

Game 15-16: Montreal at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.782; NY Islanders 11.606 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+130); Over

Game 17-18: Carolina at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.276; Phoenix 12.780 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-160); Under

Game 19-20: San Jose at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.400; Nashville 11.305 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+140); Over

Game 21-22: Minnesota at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.735; Colorado 12.422 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under

Game 23-24: Boston at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.435; Vancouver 11.526 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, December 14

Keep an eye on these early-season NCAAB giant killers

Upsets always reign supreme in college basketball, but which teams will prove to be giant killers this season? Here’s a look at four mid-major schools that have already – and should continue – to make some noise leading up to tournament time.

St. Mary’s Gaels (WCC, 7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS)

The Gaels may not be the biggest name in the West Coast Conference, but they do own first place following Gonzaga’s loss to Dayton in the Maui Invitational. Junior forward Brad Waldow has been the key, emerging as the team’s leader in scoring (18.6 ppg), rebounding (7.1 rpg) and blocked shots (2.0 bpg). St. Mary’s could be poised for upset wins at Boise State (MWC, 8-1) and at home to South Carolina (SEC, 2-3) in December.


Charlotte 49ers (C-USA, 7-2 SU, 6-1 ATS)

It’s been a solid start for the Niners, highlighted by an unexpected win over then 14th-ranked Michigan to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off back on Nov. 24. An OT home loss to Davidson last week notwithstanding, Charlotte has benefitted from balanced scoring with no less than five players averaging double-digits per night. Two big games vs. two solid ACC teams later this month – at Florida State Dec. 17 and vs. Georgia Tech Dec. 29 – may provide a gold rush.


Belmont Bruins (Ohio Valley, 8-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Impressive wins over Indiana State and at Chapel Hill early on not only vaulted Belmont into top spot in the Ohio Valley Conference but into the national spotlight (they received a program-best 31 votes in the AP poll after knocking off North Carolina). If the Bruins are serious about cracking the Top 25, a win in Lexington against the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats on Dec. 21 would certainly do the trick. Having made the NCAA tournament six times in the past 10 years, an upset by Belmont against a top-ranked team isn’t completely out of the question.


Indiana State Sycamores (Missouri Valley, 6-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Indiana State continues to make a name for itself as a giant killer, long after Larry Bird’s departure. Last season, the Sycamores defeated the likes of Miami, Mississippi, Creighton and Wichita State before an end-of-season funk cost them a chance to qualify for the big dance. This year, it’s tournament or bust. But after two crushing one-point losses, they’ll need to exact revenge against Belmont and come up big vs. Saint Louis (8-2) later this month. It’s kinda what they do.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, December 14

Hot teams
-- Clippers are 6-2 this season in game following a loss.
-- Cavaliers won five of their last six games.
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Blazers won six of last seven games, are 9-2 vs spread on road.
-- Spurs won last three games, are 7-4 vs spread on road. Jazz lost last three home games, by 9-10-11 points; they won last two games, but both were on road.

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost six of last nine games. Lakers lost four of their last five.
-- Washington lost last three games, all by point or in OT.
-- Miami is 3-7 vs spread in its last ten home games.
-- New York lost three of last four games, are 5-6 vs spread on road.
-- Raptors lost six of their last eight games. Chicago lost five of seven.
-- Philly lost its last five games; they're 5-8 vs spread at home.
-- Dallas is 4-6 in last ten games, 5-6 vs spread at home. Bucks lost five of last seven games; they're 8-15 vs spread.

Totals
-- Five of last six Laker games went over the total.
-- Last five Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Cleveland games went over total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Portland games went over total.
-- Three of last four Milwaukee games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio games went over total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona at Michigan: What bettors need to know

Arizona Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)

Arizona didn’t miss a beat in its first game at No. 1 and the level of competition gets raised a few notches when it visits No. 25 Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats hammered New Mexico State 74-48 on Wednesday, but they face a Michigan team that has won 20 straight games at home against non-conference opponents and had a week to prepare for them. The key battle could be inside between Arizona’s 6-9 freshman Aaron Gordon and 6-10 sophomore Mitch McGary of Michigan.

The Wolverines followed up a loss at Duke by beating Houston Baptist by 54 last Saturday, recording a season-high 26 assists in the process. Michigan’s only two upperclassmen play up front and Arizona is young in the backcourt as well, except for their leading scorer, junior Nick Johnson. Michigan is averaging more than 80 points and the Wildcats have held six of 10 opponents under 60, beating San Diego State 69-60 in their only true road game.

TV: Noon ET, CBS

ABOUT ARIZONA (10-0): The Wildcats have dominated inside, boasting a plus-14.3 rebounding margin and 29 more blocks than their opponents while shooting 50.2 percent from the field and allowing 36.4 percent by the opposition. Johnson averages 15.7 points and shoots 50 percent from the field and 6-8 forward Brandon Ashley is contributing 12.3 points and making 61 percent for his shots. Gordon, one of the most heralded first-year players in the country, has scored in double figures each of the last eight games with four double-doubles.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (6-3): The Wolverines will have to continue their production from behind the 3-point line, where they have averaged 9.44 made 3s per contest on 38.6 percent shooting. McGary, who struggled with a back injury earlier this season, is averaging 10.6 points and 10.4 rebounds over the last five contests and matched a career high with six assists against Houston Baptist. Nik Stauskas leads Michigan at 18.9 points per game while draining half of his 48 attempts from 3-point range.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Wildcats last six overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Wolverines last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

TIP-INS:

1. The only place Arizona has struggled is at the free-throw line, where it has made only 66 percent.

2. Michigan is 24-0 when scoring 80 points or more since John Beilein took over as coach in 2007-08.

3. Arizona leads the all time series 6-2 and has not played in a Big Ten venue since visiting Michigan State in 2001.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Metric Sports

VCU -5
Loyola Marymount
Penn State -5.5
Tennessee +7
Jacksonville State +8
Middle Tennessee +8
Belmont -4
Nebraska-Omaha +4
Marshall +12
UC Davis +23
Wisconsin-Green Bay +5
New Mexico State +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL BOSTON at VANCOUVER
Play On - Any team against the money line (VANCOUVER) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
86-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 74.1% 49.5 units )
12-1 this year. ( 92.3% 11.5 units )

NHL CHICAGO at TORONTO
Play Against - Any team against the money line (TORONTO) after allowing 6 goals or more against opponent after a blowout win by 4 goals or more
39-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.0% 27.7 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.9 units )

NHL LOS ANGELES at OTTAWA
Play On - A underdog against the money line (OTTAWA) good power play team - scoring on more than 17.5% of their chances, hot offensive team - 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal
60-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.2% 42.2 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 1.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS vs NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
Power Rating: Navy 35-22 (edge: Navy BY 3)
Out Play Factor: Navy 28-15 (edge: Navy BY 3)
GAME BREAKDOWN
Navy is working on an 11-game winning streak (7-4 ATS) in the series, the longest ever in the history of this storied rivalry. Both teams are among the nations best in rushing offense army is second (324 YPG) and navy is third (320 YPG) and they are the two worst passing offenses among FBS teams (army ranks last with 80 YPG while navy averages 99 YPG). The Knights are 10-30 ATS (25%) after a bye week since 1992. The Midshipmen are set to play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl on dec. 29 in San Francisco. The Midshipmen come into this one having scored at least 42 points in each of its last three games, thanks in large part to quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The sophomore matched an ncaa record with seven rushing touchdowns in a 59-52 triple-overtime win against San Jose State on nov. 22.

Statfox Team Power Trends:
Ken Niumatalolo is 10-0 UNDER away after a bye week as coach of NAVY.
NAVY is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 75 or less passing yards in last game over the L2 seasons.
NAVY is 10-1 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the L3 seasons.

STATFOX FORECASTER
Army Black Knights 26
Navy Midshipmen 35

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Army + Navy OVER 51.5
(System Record: 44-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 44-43-1

Hockey Crusher
Phoenix Coyotes -155 over Carolina Hurricanes
(System Record: 41-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 41-23

Basketball Crusher
Northern Iowa +5 over Virginia CommonWealth
(System Record: 21-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 21-26-1

Soccer Crusher
Admira Wacker Modling + Wacker Innsbruck OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Austria
(System Record: 494-18, won last 6 games and a push)
Overall Record: 494-426-73

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC on Fox 9 betting: Benavidez out for revenge
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Demetrious Johnson (-140) vs Joseph Benavidez (+100)

UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson (-140)

Profile: Since losing to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz in October, 2011, Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (18-2-1) has taken over the UFC’s flyweight division with relative ease. Granted, when the UFC created its four-man flyweight tournament, Mighty Mouse and Ian McCall went to a draw, as Johnson faded at the end of a tough fight. He defeated McCall in the rematch, then at UFC 152 Mighty Mouse defeated Joseph Benavidez for the inaugural flyweight championship. Since that win, he’s defended his flyweight belt in two incredibly entertaining fights, taking a decision over John Dodson in January, and then armbarring John Moraga in July.

UFC Flyweight Joseph Benavidez (+100)

Profile: Joseph Benavidez (19-3) has won three impressive fights in a row since coming off a split-decision loss to flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight title at UFC 152. He is 6-1 in the UFC and earned Knockout of the Night honors in his flyweight semifinal win over Yasuhiro Urushitani at UFC on FX 2, but this wrestler and member of Team Alpha Male has come into his own since Duane Ludwig took over coaching duties at the diminutive camp in 2011. Benavidez is far more of a complete threat now, rather than the pure wrestler with good ground and pound in the WEC. Like the last fight with Mighty Mouse, this should be an exciting war.

Opening UFC Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Johnson a slight -140 betting favorite, while Benavidez opened as a +100 underdog at 5Dimes Sportsbook. This is an absolutely outstanding battle between two of the very best pound-for-pound fighters in the world and I’m super excited to see it play out. Obviously, it’s a rematch, and in the first fight Johnson won via split decision. But since that time, Benavidez has made tremendous improvements in his game, and with Duane Ludwig in his corner, he has looked unstoppable. Credit has to be given to the champion as well, as he has also improved quite a bit, but with the way these two match up, don’t be surprised if we see a new king of the flyweight division crowned after these two go to war in Benavidez’s native Sacramento next weekend.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Fresno St +13.5

Our systems say "GO" here in backing the visitors and the play was close to becoming a 4 Unit Diamond play. Cal is 7-3 on the season while Fresno comes into the game at 6-4. but neither team really has a "quality" win on their resume, so it's not like Cal is some world beater. One area of this game where there is a statistical mismatch is on the glass, where Cal out rebounds Fresno St by nine boards per game. However, Fresno St. shoots almost 48% from the field as a team, so if they can make some shots to keep close to Cal, we really think the Golden Bears will have a difficult time covering this number. Fresno St is also the better FT shooting team, in case we need some at the end. Fresno St is 22-11 ATS in road games over the past 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. We think this game is close, well within the number,