12-15-13

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358283

    #16
    English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

    League leaders Arsenal were shellacked 6-3 to Manchester City and the gap at the top of the table has shrunk. Sunday's fixture list is highlighted by a pair of clubs that will look to move closer to the Gunners as seventh-placed Tottenham host fifth-placed Liverpool.

    We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's hottest fixtures.

    Norwich v Swansea (+180, +230, +175)

    Why bet Norwich: With the way they have played, it's hard to believe that a win versus Swansea could put the Canaries in the top 10 (depending on Aston Villa's result). The side has been playing reasonably well and is coming off a very good 2-0 away-victory over West Brom.

    Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett, Robert Snodgrass, Alexander Tettey, Anthony Pilkington

    Why bet Swansea: With seven points in their last four matches, we are beginning to see the Swans play up to the standard we've expected the past couple of seasons. They currently sit 10th in the table but are the top club in terms of possession. The Swans hold the ball at a fantastic rate of 59.7 percent.

    Key players out/doubtful: Angel Rangel, Leon Britton, Álvaro

    2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 2, Swansea 2

    Key betting note: Swansea and Norwich have played over the 2.5 goal total in their last five meetings (all competitions).


    Aston Villa v Manchester United (+375, +275, -120)

    Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains were playing well, but suffered an embarrassing 2-0 loss to Fulham at Craven Cottage last time out. The side has been erratic from the outset, but still sit just three points behind Sunday's opponent. History is certainly not on their side, however, as Villa has won just once in the last 35 league matches with the Red Devils.

    Key players out/doubtful: Fabian Delph, Charles N'Zogbia, Jores Okore

    Why bet Manchester United: Wayne Rooney is back after a suspension, but Robin Van Persie will miss about one month with a thigh injury. Rooney has excelled playing in the slot behind the striker, but will more than likely lead the line for United here. Shinji Kagawa could feature in the No. 10 role, but if United is to collect three points, it will be Rooney who is key.

    Key players out/doubtful: Robin van Persie, Michael Carrick, Darren Fletcher

    2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 2, Manchester United 3

    Key betting note: United have scored at least two goals in its last four Premier League matches away from Old Trafford.

    Where the action is: "The pressure on David Moyes is showing, and he finds himself having to defend all sorts of criticism, but this is the job he took, and this is the reality of a big club like Man United’s expectations. At the prices, its hard to see how Man United are odds on faves, however, many would look to the adage that United have only ever lost 3 games in a row in the prem 3 times, and not since 2001, so most are taking the view that backing Unitedd is worthy given that stat. Action is largely two-way, with Villa seeing some good support at +375, but United is seeing more than six times that at -120. Rooney leads the First Goalscorer market at +350, and To Score Anytime at +105, with Christian Benteke priced at +600 and +188 respectively. Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals sees mostly over action at -118."


    Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool (+145, +250, +200)

    Why bet Tottenham: Spurs are back in decent form after posting back-to-back losses to Newcastle and Manchester City. They've drawn one and won twice in their last three matches and this matchup versus the Reds at White Hart Lane could tell us just what this Spurs team is all about. They seemingly have Liverpool's number at the Lane recently, posting six victories in seven matches on home turf.

    Key players out/doubtful: Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul, Emmanuel Adebayor

    Why be Liverpool: After Man City, nobody scores more than the Reds. They've won their last two games by a combined scoreline of 9-2 and superstar Luis Suárez is playing some of the best football on the planet. The Uruguayan has 15 goals in just 10 Premier League appearances this season and each goal seems to be of the highest quality. The Reds will be well rested with no European football this season and despite Tottenham's success versus the Reds at White Hart Lane, Spurs are not very good at home this season. They have just 11 points from seven home games on the campaign.

    Key players out/doubtful: José Enrique, Steven Gerrard, Daniel Sturridge

    2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 2, Liverpool 1

    Key betting note: 17 of Liverpool's previous 20 away matches have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

    Where the action is: "The day's marquee game sees a Spurs side who were struggling somewhat a few weeks ago, but have since had a good draw against Man United and wins at both Fulham and Sunderland to put them back in the race for the top 4. Action is pretty split down the middle for either side to win, with bits and pieces on the Draw. Goalscorer markets are firmly siding with Suarez to continue his amazing 15 goal tally from only 10 Premier League games, although Liverpool are underdogs for the match, Suarez is leading the betting to be First Goalscorer at +450 and To Score Anytime at 13/10. For Spurs, with his recent Hat Trick, Roberto Soldado also sees action at +500 First and +150 Anytime."
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358283

      #17
      Mark Lawrence NFL

      4* Pittsburgh
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358283

        #18
        Indian Cowboy
        7-Unit Play. #305. Take Washington Redskins +7 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est).

        3-Unit Play. #316. Take Cleveland Browns +1.5 over Chicago Bears (Sunday @ 1pm est).

        3-Unit Play. #334. Take Detroit Lions -6 over Baltimore Ravens (Monday @ 8:40pm est).
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358283

          #19
          IveyWalters

          Best Bet for Sunday

          3% Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-120)
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358283

            #20
            NFL Weather Report Sunday's Forecasts

            Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

            *** Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+6.5, 41.5)

            There will be a 25 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-30s.

            *** Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 44)

            There is a 47 percent chance of snow in the forecast with temperatures in the mid-20s. Wind will blow toward the NE endzone at 16 mph.

            *** Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 43)

            There is an 89 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 11 mph.

            *** New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

            Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

            *** San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 41)

            Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 52 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

            *** Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (41.5, 4.5)

            Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

            *** New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11, 40.5)

            Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 7 mph.

            *** Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 41.5)

            Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies.

            *** Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 41.5)

            Temperatures will be in the low-20s with a 22 percent chance of snow. Wind will whip across the field at 13 mph.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358283

              #21
              Seahawks at Giants What bettors need to know

              Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+6.5, 41.5)

              The Seattle Seahawks take a second stab at wrapping up the NFC West crown when they visit the New York Giants on Sunday. Seattle had a seven-game winning streak snapped by division rival San Francisco last weekend and can also move closer to clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Giants. New York is a disappointing 5-8 and was eliminated from playoff contention when it was routed by San Diego last Sunday.

              Giants defensive end Justin Tuck has seven sacks over the past three games and is insisting he and his teammates won’t be wallowing in despair with nothing to play for against the Seahawks. “The last thing you want to be is embarrassed,” Tuck said after Wednesday’s practice. “And this is a team that, if you’re not ready to play, they will embarrass you … and then laugh at you about it.” Seattle will be missing a couple key defensive pieces as linebacker K.J. Wright broke his right foot in the loss to the 49ers and cornerback Brandon Browner (groin) will sit out for the fourth consecutive game.

              TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

              LINE: Seattle opened as a 7-point road fave and is now -6.5. The total opened 41.5.

              WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph.

              ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-2): Seattle was hoping receiver Percy Harvin (hip) might play for the second time this season but it is looking unlikely. “He just hasn’t quite gotten over the hump,” coach Pete Carroll said on Wednesday. “He has a lot of new movement in that hip that he hasn’t had before and he’s trying to become accustomed to that.” Quarterback Russell Wilson (23 touchdowns, seven interceptions) is excelling and standout running back Marshawn Lynch ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,042 yards. Star cornerback Richard Sherman (four interceptions) hasn’t picked off a pass since Oct. 28 against St. Louis.

              ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-8): Quarterback Eli Manning (3,254 yards, 16 touchdowns) shares the NFL interception lead of 20 with rookie Geno Smith of the Jets and has gone eight consecutive games without reaching 300 yards. He’s also painfully aware that his struggles are a big part of the reason why New York will miss out on the postseason for the second straight campaign. “I thought we were prepared to have a big year and do some good things,” Manning said. “It was just tough. We had some opportunities to win some games that we didn’t – that were very close and definitely within reach in the fourth quarter and we didn’t take advantage of those opportunities.”

              TRENDS:
              * Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
              * Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
              * Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC.
              * Over is 6-2 in Giants last eight home games.

              EXTRA POINTS:
              1. Seattle is tied for second with 28 takeaways, while New York has committed an NFL-high 34 turnovers.

              2. Giants WR Victor Cruz had eight receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in 2011 – a game the Seahawks won 36-25.

              3. The Seahawks rank first in total defense (287.1) and second in scoring defense (15.8).
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358283

                #22
                Patriots at Dolphins What bettors need to know

                New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

                The New England Patriots will begin life without Rob Gronkowski for the second time this season as they attempt to clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title and 10th in 11 years on Sunday when they visit the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots have rallied in each of their last three contests to post a dramatic victory - including last week's stirring 27-26 triumph over Cleveland despite seeing their star tight end suffer a gruesome season-ending knee injury. New England also played the comeback card in the first meeting with Miami, overcoming a two-touchdown halftime deficit en route to a 27-17 victory on Oct. 27.

                The lone hiccup in the Patriots' divisional dominance came in 2008, when the Dolphins seized the title. Fast forward to the present, Miami has won two in a row and four of six to keep pace with Baltimore (7-6) for the AFC's final postseason berth - although the Ravens won a head-to-head contest earlier in the season. The Dolphins eclipsed the 30-point plateau for the first time in last week's 34-28 victory over Pittsburgh.

                TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

                LINE: Miami opened +2.5 and is now +1. The total opened 45.5.

                WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain.

                ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-3): Coach Bill Belichick was matter of fact when discussing the loss of Gronkowski, saying that "We've played a lot more of this season without him than with him." New England's offense sputtered a bit as it adjusted to his initial absence, which lasted the first six weeks of the campaign following offseason surgeries on his forearm and back. Tom Brady will likely need to continue to lean on wideout Julian Edelman (team-leading 76 receptions) as well as Shane Vereen and the running game to counteract the loss of his Pro Bowl tight end.

                ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (7-6): Despite being sacked a league-high 47 times, Ryan Tannehill has steadily improved and matched a career best with three touchdown passes last week versus the Steelers. Versatile tight end Charles Clay reeled in two to extend his team lead to seven in that department and has seven catches in each of the last two contests. Clay, who had five receptions against New England in the first meeting, has 678 yards receiving for the second-best total by a Miami tight end since Randy McMichael (791, 2004).

                TRENDS:
                * Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
                * Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
                * Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
                * Under is 5-1 in Patriots last six vs. AFC East.

                EXTRA POINTS:
                1. Miami RB Lamar Miller cleared the league's concussion protocol and is line to play versus New England. Miller rolled up 89 yards on 18 carries in the teams' first meeting.

                2. The Patriots have won seven straight against the Dolphins, but just seven of their last 13 meetings in South Beach under Belichick's watch.

                3. Miami speedy WR Mike Wallace will likely be matched up with New England CB Aqib Talib, who is nursing a hip injury.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358283

                  #23
                  Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 15 of NFL football

                  We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

                  - Seattle's ballhawking defense will be licking its chops Sunday. The Seahawks are tied for second in the league with 28 takeaways, while their opponent - the New York Giants - lead the league with 34 turnovers.

                  - The Chicago Bears have troubles traveling to Cleveland. They've lost their last four visits at the Browns.

                  - In his last four games, Browns WR Josh Gordon has registered a mind-boggling 774 yards receiving.

                  - The Indianapolis Colts will look to keep the tradition of beating the Houston Texans at home. The Colts have are 11-0 all time against the Texans.

                  - Wade Phillips tipped Case Keenum to start versus Indy despite being pulled against the Jags. Keenum threw for a career-high 350 yards and three TDs versus the Colts in the previous meeting.

                  - The Jacksonville Jaguars have won three-straight games and have stopped turning the ball over. The Jags were minus-7 in the turnover department during their 0-8 start but are plus-five over the last five games.

                  - Courtesy of @ATSstats - When the Buffalo Bills played as a road fave in the month of December, they are 8-2 SU since 1996. Buffalo is -2.5 at Jacksonville Sunday.

                  - The Patriots have won seven straight against the Dolphins, but just seven of their last 13 meetings in South Beach under Belichick's watch.

                  - Dolphins RB Lamar Miller has struggled all season long, but had one of his best games in the first meeting with New England. jiller rushed for 89 yards on 18 carries in the 27-17 loss.

                  - Sunday's matchup between the Eagles and Vikings features two of the most talented backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy. Peterson (who is questionable) rushed for only 13 yards before exiting the game versus the Ravens last week, while McCoy rumbled in the snow for 217 in the 34-20 win over the Lions.

                  - Kirk Cousins will start at QB for the Redskins. The second-year pro is 12-of-25 for 107 yards and two picks in two appearances this season.

                  - Falcons QB Matt Ryan should look to TE Tony Gonzalez Sunday. Gonzalez had 13 catches for 123 yards and TD in last years meeting with the Redskins.

                  - The 49ers have cashed in for bettors while on the road this season. The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games (5-1 ATS on the road this season). San Fran is a 5-point road fave at Tampa Bay Sunday.

                  - Bucs linebacker Lavonte David is the only player in the league with at least 100 tackles, five interceptions and five sacks.

                  - The Oakland Raiders have the best rushing attack in the AFC with 134.4 yards per game.

                  - The Raiders host the Chiefs Sunday, where the Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Sunday's total is currently 41.5.

                  - Carolina's defense is tough. But at home is on another level. The Panthers have allowed just five touchdowns in six home games this season.

                  - Such stats do not bode well for the poor New York Jets and QB Geno Smith. Smith has thrown for a combined 230 yards and five interceptions in his last two road games.

                  - Since Oct 1., Packers RB Eddie Lacy ranks third in the NFL with 836 rushing yards.

                  - The Cowboys are 11-4 in the last 15 matchups with the Green Bay Packers and are 6.5-point faves at home Sunday.

                  - New Orleans averages just 18.8 points on the road compared to 32.9 at home. Saints are 6.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday.

                  - The Rams offense has been feeble of late, scoring just 23 points during a two-game losing skid.

                  - The Arizona Cardinals are tied for the best ATS record in the NFL at 9-4. They are tied with fellow NFC West teams Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

                  - The Titans are looking to avoid their first five-game home losing streak since 1996, when the franchise was still based in Houston.

                  - Bengals QB Andy Dalton has a QB rating of just 67.8 in five games versus the Steelers.

                  - The Steelers are 3-1 ATS against AFC North teams this season. They are 1.5-point home dogs against Cincy Sunday night.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358283

                    #24
                    Bio Sports Picks

                    NFL
                    3* Dolphins (pk)
                    3* Steelers +2
                    4* Ravens +6 (Monday)
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358283

                      #25
                      Today's NFL Picks

                      SUNDAY, DECEMBER 15
                      Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/12)
                      Game 305-306: Washington at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.047; Atlanta 126.751
                      Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 58
                      Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 51
                      Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over
                      Game 307-308: San Francisco at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.470; Tampa Bay 131.314
                      Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11; 37
                      Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 41
                      Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under
                      Game 309-310: Arizona at Tennessee (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.556; Tennessee 132.635
                      Dunkel Line: Even; 46
                      Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Over
                      Game 311-312: New Orleans at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.416; St. Louis 140.301
                      Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 51
                      Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6; 47
                      Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Over
                      Game 313-314: Seattle at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 142.642; NY Giants 130.535
                      Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 36
                      Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 41 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under
                      Game 315-316: Chicago at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.426; Cleveland 126.851
                      Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 49
                      Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 45
                      Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1); Over
                      Game 317-318: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.312; Indianapolis 131.029
                      Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 42
                      Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Under
                      Game 319-320: Buffalo at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.571; Jacksonville 128.856
                      Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 47
                      Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2; 43
                      Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+2); Over
                      Game 321-322: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.322; Miami 134.553
                      Dunkel Line: New England by 5; 42
                      Vegas Line: New England by 2; 45 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: New England (-2); Under
                      Game 323-324: Philadelphia at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.210; Minnesota 127.647
                      Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10 1/2; 46
                      Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 51
                      Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4 1/2); Under
                      Game 325-326: NY Jets at Carolina (4:05 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.040; Carolina 134.622
                      Dunkel Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 44
                      Vegas Line: Carolina by 11 1/2; 40 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+11 1/2); Over
                      Game 327-328: Kansas City at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 136.353; Oakland 124.880
                      Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 11 1/2;
                      Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; 41
                      Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4);
                      Game 329-330: Green Bay at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 125.583; Dallas 130.491
                      Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5; 54
                      Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 49
                      Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7); Over
                      Game 331-332: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 138.329; Pittsburgh 134.436
                      Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 36
                      Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 41
                      Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Under
                      MONDAY, DECEMBER 16
                      Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/12)
                      Game 333-334: Baltimore at Detroit (8:40 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.418; Detroit 133.189
                      Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 53
                      Vegas Line: Detroit by 6; 48
                      Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+6); Over
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358283

                        #26
                        Prediction Machine
                        Indy -6 58.3
                        Cle -1 57.7
                        Phi -4.5 57.3

                        Oak o41 57.7
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358283

                          #27
                          Sixth Sense

                          Chargers +10
                          Texans +6
                          Vikings +4.5
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358283

                            #28
                            Pointspreadpros
                            Week 15 TOP Plays (12-7-1 last 8 weeks, 20-22-1 YTD)


                            CAROLINA -11
                            Baltimore +6
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358283

                              #29
                              NC Power Sweep Newsletter selections:


                              College
                              2* under Army/Navy


                              NFL
                              4* Kansas City by 13 over OAKLAND
                              3* CAROLINA by 17 over New York Jets
                              2* Arizona by 7 over TENNESSEE


                              Power Rating Play - INDIANAPOLIS over Houston
                              Angle Plays (all 3 angles) - San Francisco, ATLANTA, CAROLINA, INDIANAPOLIS


                              Totals:
                              3* over Washington/ATLANTA
                              3* under New York Jets/CAROLINA
                              3* over Arizona/TENNESSEE
                              2* under Seattle/ NY GIANTS
                              2* under Kansas City/OAKLAND


                              Note: CAPITAL letters indicate home team
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 358283

                                #30
                                Alex Smart

                                San Fran-5
                                Houston/Indy over 45.5
                                Jacksonville+2
                                Kansas City-3.5
                                Arizona/Tennessee over 41.5
                                Cinci/Pittsburgh over 40.5
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