12-15-13

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NBA PORTLAND at DETROIT
Play Against - Home underdogs (DETROIT) after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NBA MINNESOTA at MEMPHIS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
143-66 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 55.1 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% -1.1 units )

NBA GOLDEN STATE at PHOENIX
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

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River City Sharps (47-29-1/62% YTD)

4 Unit Diamond Play Philadelphia Eagles -5
3 Units Indianapolis Colts -5
3 Units Cincinnati Bengals -1
3 Units Chicago Bears Pick

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL EDMONTON at ANAHEIM
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (EDMONTON) vs. division opponents, off a road loss against a division rival
198-185 since 1997. ( 51.7% 91.4 units )
4-11 this year. ( 26.7% -5.2 units )

NHL LOS ANGELES at CHICAGO
Play On - Home teams against the money line (CHICAGO) after allowing 4 goals or more against opponent after 4 straight wins by 2 goals or more
22-9 since 1997. ( 71.0% 20.4 units )

NHL LOS ANGELES at CHICAGO
Play Against - Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (CHICAGO) very good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game, after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored
51-28 since 1997. ( 64.6% 30.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -0.8 units )

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ATS football lock club

7u KC -5
7u Pitt +2-
7u Az -2-

1u round robin parlay the previous 3 back.

6u Jville +3

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS
- NFL WEEK #15 - Free Member Play

15-UNIT "ZAXXON-HYDRA"
PANTHERS -9.5 (-120) vs jets (10am)

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Intpicks

2* Miami+1
1* Indiana -5
1* Philadelphia -6
1* Carolina -10
1* Arizona/Tennessee Over 41
1* Pittsburgh +2.5
1* Syracuse -4
1* Golden State/Phoenix Over 209.5

Free Pick
Washington/Atlanta Over 49.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY

4* BEST BET = PITTSBURGH
3* = MIAMI
2* = TAMPA BAY
2* = ST. LOUIS
2* = DETROIT (Monday Night)

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* CFB Customer Special
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
Point Spread: +7/-115 Minnesota

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Panthers favored heavily over Jets on Sunday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Carolina -11, Total: 40.5

After being beaten soundly last week, the Panthers look for a big bounce-back effort Sunday versus the Jets.

New York scored a season-high 37 points in a 10-point win versus Oakland last week, but is just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) on the road this year, where it has been outscored by an average of 31 to 13. Carolina fell 31-13 in New Orleans last Sunday night, but has destroyed its past five visitors by an average score of 31 to 10, outgaining them by 431 total yards with a +8 turnover margin. The Jets have the worst turnover margin in the NFL at minus-18 with rookie QB Geno Smith producing 24 miscues (20 INT, 4 FL). New York holds a 3-2 SU edge all-time in this series, but the Panthers are 3-0 ATS at home versus the Jets. Most of the betting trends points towards Carolina, like its 9-1 ATS record (90%) in the past two seasons after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games, or its 55-22 ATS mark (71%) versus bad defenses (24+ PPG allowed) since 1992. But New York is 3-1 ATS (75%) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points over the past three seasons, including 2-0 ATS this year. The Jets could be missing both top CB Antonio Cromartie (concussion, questionable) and WR Stephen Hill (knee, doubtful), while the Panthers will be missing RB Jonathan Stewart (knee).

The Jets' offense has been pretty miserable with the league's second-fewest points (17.4 PPG) and third-fewest yards (308 YPG). Their inefficiency in both the red zone (47% touchdown rate, 28th in NFL) and on third down (35%, 24th in league) has not helped the cause. QB Geno Smith has had a few strong games in his rookie year, but still has more than twice as many interceptions (20) as touchdowns (9), completing only 55% of his passes for 2,475 yards (7.0 YPA). He's also been sacked 39 times, but has been able to score four rushing touchdowns. In his six road games, Smith has thrown for only 1,091 yards (182 YPG, 6.7 YPA) with 4 TD and 12 INT, while taking 23 sacks. No New York receiver has scored more than three touchdowns through the air, and WR Jeremy Kerley's pedestrian numbers lead the team in both receptions (32) and receiving yards (388). The Jets have stayed in the playoff hunt due to a quality ground game that ranks 11th in the league in rushing yards (126 YPG) and 13th in yards per carry (4.3 YPC). Smith ran for 50 of the team's 143 yards last week on just five carries, while bruising RB Chris Ivory picked up 76 yards on 18 attempts (4.2 YPC) with a touchdown. Ivory (639 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 3 TD) has been more effective than speedier RB Bilal Powell (530 rush yards, 3.8 YPC, 1 TD) which is why he gets the bulk of the rushing workload. Although New York's defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (T-23rd in NFL), a lot of that is due to poor field position that the turnover-prone offense has put the unit in. The Jets rank 11th in the league in total defense (338 YPG) and 10th in yards per play (5.1), and have been nasty to opposing ball carriers with 83 rushing YPG allowed (2nd in league) on an NFL-best 3.1 YPC allowed. They have also gotten key stops in both the red zone (49% touchdown rate, T-5th in league) and on third down (35%, 8th in NFL). New York has done this despite forcing only 10 turnovers for the season (2nd-fewest in league).

Carolina has been excellent at home, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) and outscoring opponents by a hefty 16.2 PPG, with 26.7 PPG scored and just 10.5 PPG allowed. But overall, the offense hasn't been great, ranking 29th in passing offense (192 YPG), 27th in yards per play (5.0) and 26th in total offense (321 YPG). But the Panthers have been able to score a respectable 22.9 PPG (17th in NFL) because they rank fourth in the league in both red-zone efficiency (63% touchdown rate) and on third downs (46%). QB Cam Newton has posted average passing numbers (62% completions, 2,776 yards, 6.9 YPA, 20 TD, 11 INT), but has been able to make big plays with his legs all year, helping his team control the football for 33:06 (2nd in NFL). His 495 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and six touchdowns have contributed greatly to his team's 129 rushing YPG (T-8th in league). With RB Jonathan Stewart (180 rush yards, 3.8 YPC) out, the bulk of the rushing workload will go to RB DeAngelo Williams (662 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 2 TD) and bruising RB Mike Tolbert (313 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 4 TD). This ground-heavy attack has kept turnovers to a minimum, as the team has committed only seven giveaways in its past nine games. The Panthers defense didn't have many answers for Drew Brees and the Saints last week, but this unit is still among the best in the NFL, leading the league in scoring defense (14.5 PPG allowed), rushing defense (79 YPG) and first downs allowed (16.8 per game). It is also tied for first in red-zone defense (39% touchdown rate), second in total defense (296 YPG) and fifth in both third-down defense (34%) and passing defense (217 YPG). This unit has also been effective in taking the football away, forcing multiple turnovers in nine of 13 games this season.

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
★★★Syracuse 76 - ST. JOHN’S 60—It’s too bad this is no longer a Big
East game, but at least the rivalry lives. While Steve Lavin is still searching for
the right lineup combinations at St. John’s, Jim Boeheim’s ‘Cuse shifted gears
in the recent Maui Classic, with the emergence of frosh G Tyler Ennis (scored
17 ppg over a 4-game stretch before encountering foul problems against
Binghamton on Dec. 7) sparking the ascent. Now that jr. G Trevor Cooney (15.3
ppg & 49% triples) has assumed the designated gunner role that graduated
James Southerland filled a year ago, the Orange are now spacing the floor and
allowing more room for nimble F C.J. Fair (17.3 ppg) to do his thing. At only
32.8% beyond the arc, Lavin’s Red Storm will have its usual problems vs. the
Boeheim zone. 12-SYR -13' 77-58

Wright St. over MIAMI-OHIO by 5 to 7—12-WSU -7' 67-59

VILLANOVA 81 - La Salle 60—Payback for ‘Nova vs. Big Five rival La Salle
after the Explorers scored a 77-74 win last season at Tom Gola Arena. That was
a better La Salle side, however, as this season’s Explorers seem to be missing
the contributions of graduated G Ramon Galloway, not only a prolific scorer but
also the sort of 3-point threat that La Salle (a subpar 29.5% from tripleville)
currently lacks. Situation might be better for Jay Wright’s Wildcats, especially
since Rice transfer Dylan Ennis (10.3 ppg) is smoothly adjusting to his role as
a “Villanova guard,” complementing on-court pilot Ryan Arcidiacono and
explosive 6-6 James Bell (17.8 ppg). 12-LAS -3' 77-74 (OT)

UC Santa Barbara over SAN DIEGO by 1 to 3—12-UCSB -3 57-39

★★★Troy 71 - KANSAS ST. 73-—We’ll admit we’re not a big fan of KSU’s
second-year mentor Bruce Weber, who has a way of sometimes squelching his
squad’s offensive rhythm & flow. And with the Wildcats (only 10 of 20 vs. South
Dakota on Tuesday) shaky from the FT line, the high price is worth taking with
gritty, senior-laden Troy, playing tougher on the stop end for 1st-year HC Phil
Cunningham (12-year assistant at Miss. State before spending LY at Western
Kentucky) than it did for predecessor Don Maestri in his final few terms. With
the Trojans’ 6-8 juco F Kevin Thomas (Canadian was a former Texas signee;
12.9 ppg, 9.0 rpg) doing business down low and with sr. G duo of Antoine Myers
(13.6 ppg, 3.7 apg) & Hunter Williams (10.1 ppg, 3.7 apg) dishing and scoring,
Troy adds to its 9-2 vs. spread its last 11 as an underdog away from home,
including DD covers at Ole Miss & UAB in November. 12-DNP

MISSOURI over Western Michigan by 5 to 7—12-DNP CABLE TV—
ESPNU

WASHINGTON ST. 66 - Pepperdine 63—Pep has been a bit erratic, but its
best efforts suggest the Waves can hang around in the Palouse. The
emergence of frosh G Jermey Major (15 ppg last five games) and juco
backcourt mate Malcolm Brooks (scored 16 in recent win over UCI) providing a
nice complement to frontline workhorse 6-6 soph PF Stacy Davis (16.2 ppg &
57% from floor). Meanwhile, Pac-12 sources report that Wazzu HC Ken Bone
is still trying to shore up a PG position that was depleted when expected starter
juco Danny Lawhorn left the team in preseason practice. The Cougs (only one
cover their first five on the board) now relying heavily upon G DaVonte Lacy
(21.8 ppg), the only Wazzu player scoring more than 10 ppg. In their current
state, not sure revenge angle for last year’s 2-point OT loss in Malibu is enough
reason to support the Cougs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Syracuse over St. John’s* by 2
Steve Lavin rebuilds St. John’s brick, by brick, by brick. Oh, that 100-point game by
St. John’s vs. Fordham? Ha-ha. Won’t see that again this season. But don’t take our
word for it. Take Lavin’s word for it: "I doubt we'll play a game like this the rest of the
year." There you go. Actually, expect both sides to be less than stellar offensively
because Syracuse’s only serious perimeter threat has been Trevor Cooney. No more
‘neutral’ refs, with Syracuse in the ACC. Look out, Orange.
SYRACUSE, 56-54.

***BEST BET
Wright State over Miami-OH* by 22
The Raiders of Wright State complete a stretch of four consecutive road games. But
it’s not really a stretch. The first three were out of state, five days apart. They lost all
three. Big deal. This is in-state, 35 miles apart, with a week between games. They beat
Miami-OH home last season despite shooting only 34% from the field, and they’d like
to do it again. Miami-OH has played only 6 games. They’re 1-5, scoring only 65 ppg.
Wright State has played 11 games. Their current leading scorer, 6’10”, 245 center A.J.
Pacher, did not play in last season’s win. He’s no superstar and probably won’t be their
leading scorer two months from now, but he is a guy with size who can help them do
even better in the rebounding battle than they did in last year’s game (38-24).
WRIGHT STATE, 78-56.

Villanova* over Lasalle by 25
Villanova is peaking in December!

VILLANOVA, 86-61.

San Diego* over Cal-Santa Barbara by 7
UCSB’s 6’7” forward Alan Williams could be the best post player on the West Coast.
But true road games bring the possibility of foul trouble for Williams, and stagnated
offense for the Gauchos.
SAN DIEGO, 74-67.

Kansas State* over Troy by 17

Missouri* over Western Michigan by 20

Washington* over Pepperdine by 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

PRO BASKETBALL

Houston 117 - SACRAMENTO 105—High-scoring Houston leads the
league in scoring, and Sacramento has rarely been accused of spending too
much of its energy on defense the past few seasons. However, the Kings have
covered 3 straight as a home dog. Interestingly, newly acquired King F Rudy
Gay scored 29 points for the Raptors when they lost a double-OT decisions
against Houston earlier this season. The punch line is he made just 11 of 37
shots. Rockets have won and covered 9 of last 11 against the Kings (5-1 at the
Sleep Train Arena). 12-SAC +6' 117-111 (218), Hou -4 112-102 (218), HOU -
10' 121-100 (218)

MEMPHIS 103 - Minnesota 95—First meeting this season in a series
dominated by Memphis. The Grizzlies have won 11 straight against the Twolves,
covering 9 of those meetings. Memphis has been extremely
disappointing at home this season, however, dropping 10 of 13 pointspread
decisions at the FedEx Forum. Minny similarly disappointing on the road of late,
with a 2-5 spread mark last 7 as a visitor. Only 3 teams shoot worse than the
Timberwolves, and don’t think Minny C Nikola Pekovic will get the best 7-0
Greek C Kosta Koufos inside. 12-MEM -9 105-88 (184), MEM -13 92-77 (183),
Mem -4 99-86 (184)

Portland 107 - DETROIT 98—Detroit lost and failed to cover 7 of last 10
home games prior to hosting Brooklyn on Friday, and Pistons’ defense went
south as they yielded 114 ppg in their last 3 through Dec. 12. Portland has been
a high-percentage play, logging 18-3 SU & 16-5 spread marks since dropping its
opener. Blazers played last night, but Portland covered 5 of 6 games when
unrested this season. Blazers more reliable choice, especially considering
Pistons haven’t covered as a home dog this season (0-3). 13-POR -4' 109-103
(199); 12-DET +1 108-101 (192), POR -10' 112-101 (200)

OKLAHOMA CITY 113 - Orlando 94—This will be a real challenge for
Orlando side that’s 1-7 SU last 8 on the road and has scored just 87 ppg in its
last 4 away from home. Explosive Oklahoma City (105 ppg at Chesapeake
Energy Arena this season and 108 ppg there LY) has been a solid winner at
home, with a 33-18 spread mark the last 1+ seasons. Orlando SF Arron Afflalo
is the go-to scorer for the Magic, but he can’t measure up to Kevin Durant
(literally, as he is 4 inches shorter than Durant, who’s 6-9 and extra-long). 12-
OKC -17 117-104 (207), Okc -13' 97-89 (208)

DENVER 106 - New Orleans 104—The home team has won and covered 5
straight when these two play, but this might be the spot to look for a reversal in
that string. New Orleans has covered 3 of 4 as a road dog, and Denver has had
a very sluggish start laying points at the Pepsi Center (1-4 as home chalk). First
chance N.O. PG Jrue Holiday has to square off against Ty Lawson since
Holiday moved to the Pelicans from Philly. N.O. F Ryan Anderson, who’s
having his best season (22 ppg) scored 20 ppg and shot 46% on his triples
against the Nuggets last season. 12-DEN -10 102-84 (194), DEN -7 113-98
(204), NO +7 110-86 (197)

Golden St. 110 - PHOENIX 102—Golden State has won the last 6 against
Phoenix, covering 5 of those meetings. Phoenix started 4-0 SU and against the
points at US Airways Arena this season, but Suns have dipped 2-3 in last 5 and
are going to have a bit of a matchup problem in backcourt. Not sure if Sun Gs
Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe can keep a lid on counterparts Stephen Curry
and Klay Thompson, and Warrior frontline featuring rugged F David Lee and
underrated SF youngster Harrison Barnes (15 ppg last 10) will be an issue as
well for Channing Frye and P.J. Tucker. And clock might’ve struck 12 on Sun
C Miles Plumlee (8 ppg, 7 rpg last 5 after averaging a double-double in first 8
games). 12-Gs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

Houston over *Sacramento by 3
Sacramento was just 3-9 ATS at home through last Sunday, but it's difficult to lay
many points with the Rockets on the road when Dwight Howard isn't blocking shots
and there's a cluster injury problem.
HOUSTON 109-106.

***BEST BET
*Memphis over Minnesota by 15
Minnesota has yet to get over the hurdle of beating the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves
have dropped 11 straight to Memphis, losing by an of 15 points during three
matchups last season. After a fast start, Minnesota had failed to cover seven of its last
nine games through this past Monday. Memphis has held four of its last six foes to
under 98 points through last Sunday.
MEMPHIS 102-87.

Portland over *Detroit by 4
The Pistons became the first team to hold LaMarcus Aldridge under 20 points, but
still lost 109-103 at Portland on Nov. 11.
PORTLAND 106-102.

*Oklahoma City over Orlando by 8
Oklahoma entered the first weekend of this month on a 62-win game pace, but so far
haven't dominated like last season. The Thunder were covering just 40 percent when
laying six or more points through this past Monday.
OKLAHOMA CITY 105-97.

*Denver over New Orleans by 5
With Al-Farouq Aminu filling in nicely, the Hornets have been sailing under-the-radar
since losing their best player, Anthony Davis, beating the 76ers, Knicks and Bulls in
their last three road contests. This is the beginning of a five-game road swing for the
Pelicans.
DENVER 107-102.

Golden State over *Phoenix by 2
While the Warriors have a number of name players such as Stephen Curry, David Lee
and Andrew Bogut, the scrappy Suns were ranking among the best teams against the
spread going 14-5-1 through their first 20 games. Golden State, though, went 4-0
against the Suns last season, although three of the games were tight.
GOLDEN STATE 105-103.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

NFL
TRIPLE PLAY:
San Francisco -5 Tampa Bay

DOUBLE PLAYS
Carolina -11 NY Jets
Miami +1 New England
Detroit -6 Baltimore

SINGLE PLAYS
Atlanta -7 Washington
Arizona -3 Tennessee
Seattle -7 NY Giants
Indy -5 1/2 Houston
Jacksonville +2 Buffalo
Cincy -2 1/2 Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

| NFL Total Sun, 12/15/13 - 4:25 PM
double-dime bet ARI / 310 TEN Over 41.5 Bookmaker.com