12-22-13

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)

Arizona’s defense ranks seventh in total defense (322.3) and eighth in scoring defense (20.8), and veteran linebacker John Abraham is having a standout campaign with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is expected to play against the Seahawks despite suffering a concussion last week. Cardinals WR Michael Floyd’s last 24 receptions have all gone for first downs.

Marshawn Lynch is over 1,000 yards for the third straight season and fifth time in his career and rushed for a solid 91 yards in the first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona leads the NFL in rushing defense (83.2) so yards could be tough to come by in the rematch with the Cardinals, who desperately need a victory. The Seahawks forced eight turnovers while trouncing the Cardinals 58-0 in last season’s meeting in Seattle.

LINE: Seattle opened at -10 but has been bet up a half-point, while the total has dropped two points to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-3.0) + Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -8
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.


New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Eli Manning's trainwreck of a season reached its nadir when he threw a career-high five interceptions against Seattle, boosting his total to a league-worst 25 and matching his career high from 2010. His passer rating of 69.7 is his lowest since his rookie campaign and doesn't figure to get any better with leading receiver Victor Cruz dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee that will cause him to miss Sunday's game.

Manning is not the only QB who has been a turnover machine - Detroit's Matt Stafford has picked been off 10 times and lost two fumbles in the past five games. Three more interceptions by Stafford in last week's 18-16 loss at Baltimore continued the Lions' inability to protect a fourth-quarter lead, which has occurred in each of their last four defeats. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is second in the league with 1.449 yards.

LINE: The Lions opened at -10 while the total has held steady at 49.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Detroit (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -9
TRENDS:

* Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)

Quarterback Matt McGloin had his worst performance since taking over the starting job, tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in the debacle against the Chiefs. Oft-injured running back Darren McFadden returned to practice and could be back in the lineup, but Oakland has received solid production from backup Rashad Jennings, who rushed for 91 yards last week and recorded his second straight two-touchdown game.

Even though San Diego's postseason hopes appear remote, quarterback Philip Rivers guided the team to its biggest upset of the season by throwing a pair of touchdown passes in a 27-20 win at Denver last week. Running back Ryan Mathews has his own checkered injury history, but he tied his season high with 127 yards and went over 100 yards for the fifth time in the past nine games.

LINE: San Diego is steady as a 10-point fave, with the total up one point to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) + San Diego (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -10.3
TRENDS:

* Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 45)

Pittsburgh has rallied in the second half of the season but can't help but kick itself for four losses by a touchdown or less, including a 34-28 setback against Miami two weeks ago that would have dramatically improved its playoff chances. Ben Roethlisberger will try to channel his performance from his only previous regular-season meeting with the Packers in which he threw for a career-best 503 yards and three TDs.

The Packers will be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't cleared this week despite returning to practice as he continues his recovery from a collarbone injury. Green Bay came back from a 26-3 halftime deficit to beat Dallas last week and revived its playoff hopes in the process. The Packers have won their final regular-season home game in eight straight seasons and 20 of the last 21.

LINE: The Packers opened -2.5 but are now -1.5. The total is set at 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 93 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the length of the field at 15 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0.0) + Green Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Steelers -1
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 45)

Tom Brady, whose completion percentage is his lowest since 2004, needs one win to match Dan Marino (147) for fourth place on the all-time list. The future Hall of Famer threw a late interception to seal last week's 24-20 loss to the Dolphins - the Patriots' first game since losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.

Baltimore's four-game winning streak is tied for the NFL's longest with San Francisco - the team it beat to win last season's Super Bowl - and the Ravens' last two wins have come in dramatic fashion. Justin Tucker's 61-yard field goal in the final minute stunned Detroit on Monday night, one week after Joe Flacco capped a back-and-forth thriller against Minnesota with the game-winning touchdown pass with four seconds left.

LINE: Baltimore opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, with the total down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-4.8) - Baltimore (-0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.3
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous outing.
* Ravens are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.


Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)

Chicago would like to keep some distance between itself and the Packers, who visit the Bears in the regular-season finale. The offense is humming right along no matter who is under center but the defense is an issue, surrendering an average of 31 points over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL against the run. Chicago RB Matt Forte has gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games.

Philadelphia will be scoreboard-watching early in the day, needing a loss by the Cowboys to make a win over the Bears a division-clincher. The Eagles will also be looking for more out of a pass defense that is ranked 31st in the league. Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week but has thrown an interception in each of the last two games after going his first seven starts without a pick.

LINE: Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point fave, but has been bet down to -3. The total is up one point to 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 53 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Over is 17-4 in Chicago's last 21 games following a SU win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 12 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph. There is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph. There is a 54 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)

Forecasts are calling for rain with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)

There is an 81 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 53.5)

There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)

Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)

The forecast is calling for snow in Green Bay with temperatures in the low-20s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 12 mph.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 45)

There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)

There is a 53 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saints at Panthers: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)

The NFL postseason officially doesn't begin for two more weeks, but Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera considers Sunday's rematch against the visiting New Orleans Saints his team's first playoff game. "The next two games as far as I'm concerned are exactly that," Rivera told reporters. "There's a lot of importance to this game because of the importance going forward. This is about as big as it gets." The Saints can clinch the NFC South title and a first-round bye with a win, while a Panthers victory would clinch a playoff spot and put Carolina in position to claim the division and the No. 2 seed with a win next week at Atlanta.

The Saints, who were sloppy in a 27-16 loss at St. Louis last week, will try to duplicate their performance from a 31-13 home win over Carolina two weeks ago, while the Panthers have studied New Orleans' last two losses in search of wrinkles that could help reverse the result. "There were some mistakes in that game, some things that we didn't do very well and that we have to do better," Rivera told reporters. "We'll have to take a real good look at (the two losses) and see which of those things mesh well with what we do and maybe try to incorporate those things." New Orleans has won five of the past seven meetings but lost 35-27 in its most recent trip to Carolina last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Carolina opened -3. The total is up one point from the opener of 45.5.

WEATHER: There is an 81 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4): Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago. The defense continues to impress statistically, ranking fifth in total yards and points allowed, but the recent lack of takeaways is alarming with just two in the past seven games.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (10-4): The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams (743 yards, two TDs) and quarterback Cam Newton (507 yards, six TDs) lead a powerful running game, but the Panthers likely will need to get the passing game going to outscore Brees and the Saints.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.
* Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Panthers last four vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has six 100-yard games, tied for the most in a season by a tight end in NFL history.

2. Newton's 89 total touchdowns (61 passing, 28 rushing) are the second-most for an NFL player in his first three seasons, trailing only Dan Marino (100).

3. The Saints cut K Garrett Hartley and signed Shayne Graham. Hartley was 22-of-30 on field goals this season, including two misses last week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colts at Chiefs: What bettors need to know

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs are already locked into the playoffs, but where they're seeded is still in doubt as they square off Sunday in Kansas City. The Colts have clinched the AFC South but could still be seeded anywhere from first to fourth, while the Chiefs will get at least a wild card but likely need two more wins - and at least one Denver loss - to win the AFC West. It's an incredibly even matchup on paper, as the teams' season averages are separated by 3.9 yards of total offense and 2.6 yards of total defense.

The teams could meet again in Indianapolis in two weeks in the playoffs, but Kansas City coach Andy Reid says that won't affect either club's approach Sunday. "I think you prepare yourself the same way. … You go get yourself ready to play four quarters of good football," Reid told reporters. "If you play them again, you get yourself ready again. We're far along into the season where … you're not going to run out of plays." The Colts have won in four of their last five trips to Kansas City, including a 20-13 victory in Week 16 last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -6.5 and are now -7. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (9-5): Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson. The defense gives up a lot of yards but also wreaks its share of havoc with Robert Mathis (16.5 sacks, six forced fumbles) and Darius Butler (four interceptions) leading the way.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-3): Kansas City's defense led the way during its 9-0 start - the Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21 - but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles is the catalyst, leading the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City's 11 wins are tied with the 2008 Miami Dolphins and the 2012 Colts for the most victories in NFL history by a team that won two or fewer games the previous season.

2. Luck needs 248 passing yards to pass Cam Newton (7,920) for the most by an NFL quarterback in his first two seasons, and he needs 77 rushing yards to pass Mike Pagel (441) for the most in a season by a Colts quarterback.

3. Smith (384) needs three rushing yards to pass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.

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NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
By MONIQUE VÁG

When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 16:

Peyton Hillis, RB, New York Giants (Out, concussion)

While the Giants have been mathematically eliminated, the Lions still have a fighting chance to make the post-season. While Detroit needs tons of help, it is still necessary to win their remaining two games. Wide receiver Victor Cruz and running back Peyton Hillis have been ruled out for Sunday for injury related reasons. Offensive lineman David Diehl and wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan are questionable for Sunday. The 30th ranked scoring offense will definitely struggle scoring more than their averaged 17.9 points. The Giants play the fourth ranked rushing defense allowing an average of 98.6 yards per game. The Lions actually have something to play for and will likely show up Sunday at home.

The Giants are 9-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. The total is 49.

Chris Clemons, DE, Seattle Seahawks (Probable, elbow)

Seattle plays the top-ranked rushing defense in the Cardinals who are allowing an average of 83.2 yards per game. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in sacks with 41.0 and are ranked fifth overall with 19 interceptions. With wide receiver Percy Harvin still questionable and running back Robert Turbin questionable, the Seahawks might not put up as many points as some expect. The Cardinals saw wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Carson Palmer returning to practice Thursday and are now listed as questionable for Sunday. With these two key players returning, the Cardinals will attempt to make the post-season and improve on their 9-5 record. The Cards may be more competitive than they are given credit for.

The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Seattle, with the total 43.0.

Aaron Williams, S, Buffalo Bills (Out, ribs)

The Bills host the 8-6 Dolphins who are competing for the sixth seed in the AFC. The Bills will be without wide receiver Steve Johnson (personal reasons) and hope to have Fred Jackson healthy (probable) after nursing a rib injury. The Bills will attempt to put up points without quarterback EJ Manuel. All season, the Bills have struggled only completing 34 percent of their third-down passes ranking them fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side with Aaron Williams out, the Bills will likely continue to give up big yardage plays - something they have struggled with all year. The Bills have given up 13 passes of 40 or more yards and give up the most rushes of 20 or more yards.

The Bills are 2.5-point home favorite against Miami. The total is 42.5.

Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, hamstring)

While the word "playoffs" and "Jaguars" never go in the same sentence, the Jaguars did put up four wins this season which is better than most predicted. The Jags are running out of healthy offensive players with running back Maurice Jones-Drew questionable, tight end Marcedes Lewis questionable, WR Cecil Shorts on IR, guard Will Rackley on IR and their backup guard Austin Pasztor also questionable Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked dead-last in the league in points scored (15.8) and are 30th or worse in total yards and rushing yards. The Jaguars have only completed 32 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. The Titans travel to Jacksonville looking for their first division win of the year and revenge over their 29-27 loss to the Jaguars earlier in 2013.

The Titans are 5-point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The total is 44.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 16 betting road map: Three pitfalls to avoid Sunday
By CHASE RUTTIG

The final weeks of the NFL season are some of the hardest to handicap. From bad weather, tanking teams, possible spoilers, and franchises fighting for the playoffs, there are plenty of traps along the way for bettors in late December. However if you can find the right angle, there is more than enough value to go around.

Here’s a NFL Week 16 road map, plotting a course through those pitfalls Sunday.

Tanking team

Jacksonville is in the midst of a race with the St. Louis Rams (who have Washington's pick) and the Oakland Raiders for a Top-3 pick in the NFL draft. With both the Raiders and the Jaguars sitting at 4-10, both teams can't really afford to win another game, especially Jacksonville.

The team has problems filling the stadium thanks to a string of losing seasons in the small Florida market and desperately needs a franchise player to draw crowds. The Jaguars are 5-point home underdogs hosting Tennessee Sunday.

Playing for coach

The Raiders might be a prime tanking candidate if not for the recent rumors that respected head coach Dennis Allen is on the hot seat. With the Raiders 4-2-1 ATS away from the Oakland Coliseum and already posting an upset win over the Chargers early in the season, Oakland’s added motivation could make this a close game with their California rivals.

It’s a good value spot for the Raiders when you throw in the travelling army of Silver and Black fans that invade San Diego and rookie QB Matt McGloin trying to earn a chance in 2014 against a soft Chargers secondary.

Spoiler alert

Buffalo will be looking to upset the Miami Dolphins in a big way at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday. The Bills can't really tank at 5-9 and are a stellar 5-1 ATS in the friendly confines of upstate New York this season.

The Bills pass rush, led by Mario Williams, should give a Dolphins team, well noted for its offensive line issues, serious troubles. Miami has been playing well and has worked its way into the playoff picture after upsetting the Patriots at home. But Buffalo is a very good home team that matches up well with the Fins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know

East Carolina Pirates vs. Ohio Bobcats (+14, 62)

BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Two experienced, productive quarterbacks bring high-octane offenses to the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. on Monday, Dec. 23. Junior Shane Carden threw 55 touchdown passes – 19 to standout junior receiver Justin Hardy -- in the last two seasons for East Carolina, which averaged 40.4 points this season. Ohio senior Tyler Tettleton recorded 66 scoring strikes in three years at the helm and the Bobcats scored 38 or more five times in the last nine games.

2. One key will be which team can get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. The Pirates have registered 35 sacks, tied for 14th in the nation, and allowed 28 while Ohio boasts 34 sacks and has given up 16.

3. East Carolina is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in bowls while trying to improve an 8-10 overall record. Ohio plays in its fifth straight bowl and has won the last two, including 45-14 over Louisiana-Monroe at the Independence Bowl in 2012.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: East Carolina opened -12.5 and is now -14. The total opened 61.5 and is up to 62.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (9-3, 6-2 Conference-USA): Hardy averaged 8.8 receptions – fifth in the nation -- for 1,218 yards and eight scores and is only 19 receiving yards shy of 3,000 in his career. If Ohio decides to devote extra attention to Hardy, receiver Isaiah Jones (54 receptions, 556 yards) or running back Vintavious Cooper (995 rushing yards, 11 TDs) can hurt the Bobcats. East Carolina, which owns victories over North Carolina and North Carolina State, is led on defense by senior LB Derrell Johnson (7.5 sacks).

ABOUT OHIO (7-5, 4-4 Mid-American): The Bobcats snapped a three-game losing streak by totaling 461 yards in a 51-23 home victory over Massachusetts in the regular-season finale. Tettleton has completed 33-of-48 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his two bowl outings, and he'll look often for Donte Foster, who has 63 catches and 858 yards this season. Beau Blankenship, who ran for four touchdowns and 104 yards in last year’s bowl game, totaled 844 yards this season – 124 versus UMass – and owns 24 career rushing TDs.

TRENDS:

* Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. CUSA.
* Over is 4-1 in Pirates last five Bowl games.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last eight neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Four intriguing clubs take the pitch in Premier League action Sunday. Tottenham Hotspur will play its first league match after the dismissal of manager Andre Villas-Boas following an humiliating 5-0 loss at home to Liverpool one week ago. Meanwhile, Everton will look to extend a nine match unbeaten streak in the league.

Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur (+150, +240, +200)

Why bet Southampton: The Saints have been sinking like a stone following a sparkling start to the campaign. They sit ninth - three points behind Sunday's opponent - and have left a rotten three-match losing skid behind them as they've mustered a pair of draws in their last two efforts. Both of those draws were in tough fixtures - home to Manchester City and away to Newcastle. The Saints will be licking their chops to get a piece of a Tottenham Hotspur side that has had a very rough week. Spurs are riddled with injuries and were knocked out of the League Cup by West Ham midweek.

Key players out/doubtful: Artur Boruc, Victor Wanyama, Guly

Why bet Tottenham Hotspur: The sacking of AVB means that the hunt for a new manager is on in North London. For the time being, however, U-21 boss Tim Sherwood takes over. Sherwood sent out a 4-4-2 formation in the Cup loss to West Ham earlier this week and for a good portion of the game, Spurs looked motivated going forward. A new boss means new tactics and it can usually spark a struggling club. Spurs are a much better side away from White Hart Lane with 16 points from eight matches to show for their efforts on the road.

Key players out/doubtful: Paulinho, Andros Townsend, Sandro, Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul

2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, Tottenham 2

Key betting note: Spurs have won their last two Premier League matches away from home.


Swansea v Everton (+200, +240, +150)

Why bet Swansea: Things are getting much better for the Welsh outfit which lost four of its opening seven matches to the season. The Swans have just one loss in their previous six Premier League games. A 3-0 thumping of a very good Newcastle side highlights a decent run of form for the club. They haven't been very good at home, however, and sit 14th in the table in home form with just 10 points from eight matches. A lot was expected from Swansea this season, with manager Michael Laudrup a hot commodity in the managerial ranks. A home victory over Everton will do wonders for this side heading into the busy holiday footy season. News is not good, however, as star player Michu could face up to three months out with an ankle injury.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Leon Britton

Why bet Everton: The Toffees are still hanging with the big boys in the League and sit fifth in the table on 31 points. They've lost just once in the league, which is the lowest of any club. Manager Roberto Martinez proved at Wigan he was a star-manager in the making and he has fulfilled that promise this season. Star striker Romelu Lukaku is as feared as any in the league and is a handful for any defense. Star LB Leighton Baines could return to the starting XI, but if not, Bryan Oviedo has filled in admirably and the Toffees have not missed a beat.

Key players out/doubtful: Gerard Deulofeu, Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 0, Everton 3

Key betting note: Swansea hasn't scored in any of its four Premier League clashes with Everton.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2013 1:00PM
101 MIA -2.5(-120) vs 102 BUF double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

7 Unit Play. #109 Take Over 55.5 - Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30p.m., Sunday, Dec 22 NBC)
(TOTAL Game of the Year)
I'm hoping playoff implications equals tons of points in Philly Sunday night! Yes this total is high and no this game does NOT have Peyton Manning as a QB but both 'D' are giving up points at will. Last Sunday the Bears let the Cleveland Browns score 31 points on the Monsters of the Midway Bears defense so what will the Eagles high power offense do? Lets go with the Eagles defense now! Philadelphia let the Vikings offense score 48 points last week and Adrian Peterson didn't even play. Even though the Eagles got crushed last week but the Eagles offense still produced 475 total yards and WR DeSean Jackson had a big game. The Philly defense has trouble stopping the pass and wow what a shock last in the league and with Cutler, Marshall, Forte, and surprise Jeffery will have a field day on offense and threw the air. Both teams can score as the Bears offense is averaging 41.5ppg in their last 2 games and the Eagles offense is averaging 32ppg in their last 2 games. Bottom line here is that both ?D's? are going to give up points and I'm shocked this total didn't move to 57-58. I see both teams hitting the 30 mark and this total flies over Sunday night. Chicago is 17-4 O/U following a SU win amd the Bears are also 11-3 O/U in their last 14 road games. The Eagles are 6-2 O/U following a SU loss and Philly is also 5-1 O/U in the month of December.

3 Unit Play. #104 Take Carolina -3 over New Orleans (1:00p.m., Sunday, Dec 22)
Monday Night Football December 8 the Saints beat the Panthers in New Orleans 31-13 but sorry Saints fans this game is in Carolina. The Saints have dropped 2-STRAIGHT road games and the Saints offense was nowhere to be found. Seattle beat the Saints Dec. 2 34-7 and last week the Rams beat the Saints 27-16. Yes I said the Rams! Look for Carolina to put pressure on Drew Brees in this game and if Carolina can score first and get the crowd in early I see another road loss to the Saints. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last home games. Carolina is also 6-1 ATS against NFC teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOCS SPORTS

6 Unit Play. #120 Take Over 44 - Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1 pm CBS)
Top NFL Game of the Week.
Both of these teams played over the posted total last week, and expect a similar result on Sunday. These teams are not going to be involved in postseason play, and the Titans will likely be making a coaching change at the end of the season. Thus, the game tends to be more open, and teams are not afraid to take numerous chances with big plays down the field. Jacksonville has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games. Tennessee has gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 8 games played on grass (1 push). Tennessee has given up 44 points per game over the last two outings, and expect them to struggle on defense yet again on Sunday.

4 Unit Play. #114 Take Over 45 - Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Chiefs lit up the scoreboard last week against Oakland, and they have scored 101 points the last two weeks. Expect that trend to continue this Sunday against a team that has been getting blown out by good teams of late. Believe it or not, Oakland actually outgained Kansas City by 77 yards but were blown out because they committed 7 turnovers. The Kansas City defense is not what it was earlier in the season, and if Matt McGloin can move the football on them, you can be sure Andrew Luck can do just as much damage. The Chiefs have gone over the posted total in 4 straight games. The Colts have gone over the posted total in 4 straight road games.

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NFL betting: Giants' Cruz out for season

New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz, will miss the remainder of the regular season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee Thursday.

Cruz injured his knee late in the third quarter of Sunday's loss against the Seattle Seahawks, when he went up high to catch a pass.

The Giants (5-9 ATS) are currently 9.5-point dogs when take on the Lions (6-8) in Detroit this weekend and will miss the playoffs for the second straight season.

Cruz will end the season with 73 receptions for 998 yards, just two yards shy of his third consecutive 1,000 yard season.


NFL betting: Welker to miss final two regular season games

Peyton Manning will be without one of his favorite targets for the final two regular season games as wide receiver Wes Welker will be held out as he recovers from a concussion.

Welker is taking part in light practices, but the team will rest him as they face the Houston Texans this week and the regular-season finale against the Oakland Raiders next week. Welker left the teams' games in both Week 11 and Week 14 with concussions.

The receiver has 73 catches for 778 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season.

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Today's NFL Picks

Chicago at Philadelphia

The Eagles host a Chicago team that is coming off a 38-31 win over Cleveland and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/18)

Game 101-102: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.068; Buffalo 126.204 Dunkel Line: Miami by 10; 38 Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.869; Carolina 139.379 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 50 Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 105-106: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 126.021; Washington 127.785 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 58 Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 53 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.314; St. Louis 139.210 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 11; 39 Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-4 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.960; Philadelphia 141.210 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 13 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 56 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 111-112: Cleveland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.027; NY Jets 123.904 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 44 Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.212; Kansas City 133.717 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over

Game 115-116: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.450; Cincinnati 141.329 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15; 43 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 48 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 117-118: Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Houston 122.900 Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.915; Jacksonville 128.856 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 49 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+5 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: Arizona at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 139.612; Seattle 145.022 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Seattle by 11; 44 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 123-124: NY Giants at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.987; Detroit 136.522 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 49 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.966; San Diego 141.817 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 22; 47 Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Under

Game 127-128: Pittsburgh at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.968; Green Bay 127.815 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 49 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 129-130: New England at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 134.129; Baltimore 138.618 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 23 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/18)

Game 131-132: Atlanta at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.779; San Francisco 139.849 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10; 49 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 45 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Over

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Sports Insights

TOP PLAYS

102 Miami/Buffalo under 43: Buffalo has played over in 9 of 14 including 23-21 game earlier this season against Miami. Buffalo pass defense is really good. And Miami’s defense has advantage over the Buffalo pass game. The YPP portion of the model has this in the mid-30’s.

116 Minnesota/Cincinnati under 47.5: Favorable math and some trends that point to Bengals bouncing back after a couple bad defensive showings. Probably going to be rainy and windy here too.

122 Arizona/Seattle under 43: Football Outsiders has these two as the best defenses in the league. Should be a lot of running the ball the ball here and less than 125 plays, yet the total is lined barely below league average.

129 New England +2.5 over Baltimore: Road underdog off road loss angle. Belichik off loss. Ravens short week off close win. Math says it’s off.

Leans: 103 New Orleans +3 over Carolina, 118 Houston +10 over Denver, 124 NY Giants/Detroit under 48.5, 130 New England/Baltimore under 44