Tweet
-
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 17:
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 45.5)
Redskins’ first-half defense vs. Giants’ slow starts
A big part of the Redskins’ downfall this season was the early holes the team dug itself. Washington’s defense couldn’t stop opponents from jumping out a quick led, putting pressure on Robert Griffin III to air it out and taking the bite out of a running game that ranks among the best in the NFL. The Redskins allowed opponents an average of over 17 points in the first half and that’s been even worse recently, giving up an average of 23 points in the first two frames the past three outings.
However, the Giants may let the Redskins off the hook in Week 17. New York takes a while to get things going on offense, scoring only 8.4 first-half points per game on the year – lowest in the NFL. Turnover troubles have snuffed out plenty of scoring drives for Eli Manning & Co. The G-Men did manage to put 13 points on the board in the first 30 minutes versus Detroit last week but are averaging 4.3 first-half points the last three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)
Bucs’ offensive penalties vs. Superdome crowd
The Saints are a completely different team in the Big Easy and a lot of that has to do with the environment. The Superdome crowds are not only giving New Orleans some extra energy on offense but have helped the defense limit opponents to just 15.4 points per home game – third lowest – compared to 22.4 points per road game.
The Superdome faithful narrowly missed the record for the loudest indoor crowd earlier this month and will be a bug in the ear of Bucs’ rookie QB Mike Glennon all game. Tampa Bay has been one of the least disciplined offensive lines in the NFL, getting flagged for delay of game nine times – tied for most in the NFL – for a total of 40 yards lost this season. The Buccaneers have also been whistled for 15 false starts and 23 holds equaling 227 yards lost – second most in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 45)
Chiefs’ bench vs. Chargers’ playoff push
Andy Reid is toying with the idea of resting his starters against the Chargers in Week 17, and by the looks of this spread, oddsmakers are expecting the Chiefs head coach to do just that. Reid told the media he could play his backups Sunday, much like he did when he was on the sidelines in Philadelphia. With Kansas City inked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, there is no need to risk injury in the finale.
The Bolts, on the other hand, are hoping for a Xmas miracle. San Diego can make the postseason cut with a win over Kansas City and losses to the Ravens and Dolphins. However, those games kickoff at 1 p.m. ET and the Chargers could know their fate ahead to this 4:25 p.m. ET start. San Diego already has a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead, stealing a 41-38 victory on a TD in the dying moments back in November.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 52.5)
Eagles’ run defense vs. Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray
The Eagles may have dodged a bullet with the back injury to Dallas QB Tony Romo heading into this win-and-in NFC East showdown. But, on the other hand, Philadelphia may face a caged beast in the form of Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray. Murray is pissed with his role in the Dallas offense, after watching his dominant first-half efforts go to waste due to careless play calling in the second half. He’s second in the NFL in yards per carry - 5.4 ypc – and is 10th in the NFL in total yards on the ground despite sitting 19th in rushing attempts.
Sure, Murray has taken advantage of all the space Romo creates but he will be going up against an Eagles defense that ranks 30th in the league - 392.7 yards against per game. Philadelphia has been bullied by runners in its six losses this season, including giving up three rushing TDs to the Vikings’ third-stringer two weeks ago. Murray will get plenty of touches and could take a season’s worth of frustration out on the Eagles Sunday night. -
NFL Prop Shop: Week 17's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY
It's the final week of the NFL schedule, which makes handicapping spreads and totals very difficult. Why not give yourself a break and bet player props in Week 17? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this Sunday's action:
Most passing yards
Chad Henne (Jacksonvile Jaguars) vs. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
I'll take a shot with Henne at an underdog price in this matchup. The Jaguars offense has been stuck in neutral for much of the season, but Henne actually hasn't been all that bad, completing over 60% of his passes for just shy of 3,000 yards since taking over for Blaine Gabbert. There's little reason to expect the Jags to hold anything back in their 2013 swan song.
Meanwhile, the Colts will be trying their best to get through this one unscathed before returning to the playoffs for the second consecutive year.
Take: Henne
Kirk Cousins (Washington Redskins) vs. Eli Manning (New York Giants)
I have little faith in the Giants offense these days and I don't think I'm in the minority. Last week, New York had a win gift-wrapped by the Lions in Detroit. Eli Manning wasn't awful in that game, but he wasn't great either, throwing for 256 yards, but needing 42 pass attempts to get there.
Kirk Cousins has certainly shown the ability to move the Redskins offense, throwing for 381 yards just two weeks ago in Atlanta. He's essentially auditioning for a starting job next year, and should be given every opportunity to shine against a division rival at the tail-end of the season.
Take: Cousins
Most rushing yards
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona Cardinals)
This is a game where I can see the 49ers playing the conservative card, and handing the ball off early and often to RB Frank Gore. Gore has quietly been rounding into form lately, rushing for 110, 86, and 97 yards over his last three games. He's also garnered 43 carries over the last two weeks, and should see a heavy workload again this Sunday.
The 49ers are allowing just 3.6 yards per rush on the road this season, and shouldn't have much trouble keeping Rashard Mendenhall - who has run for 76 yards or fewer in each and every game this season - in check.
Take: Gore
Most pass receptions
Josh Gordon (Cleveland Browns) vs. Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Even though he's rounding out another outstanding season, I'm still not sure that Steelers WR Antonio Brown is given enough credit. We can expect the Steelers to throw everything they've got at the Browns on Sunday, as they try to force their way into the postseason. That means plenty of targets - and catches - for Brown.
Speaking of targets, Josh Gordon had 16 of them last week, but could only haul in six catches. After making 24 catches in Weeks 12 and 13 combined, he's been held to just 16 over the last three games.
Take: BrownComment
-
NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
By MONIQUE VÁG
When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 17.
Tony Gonzalez, WR, Atlanta Falcons (Questionable, toe).
Despite having a 4-11-0 record, the Falcons are ranked 6th in total passing yards averaging 267.5 and 12th in total yards averaging 345.5. Of the Falcons 35 offensive touchdowns, 24 have come through the air. There's no surprise one of quarterback Matt Ryan's favorite targets has been Tony Gonzalez with 39 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs. The Falcons host a Panthers team with a defense ranked 7th against the pass, 2nd against the rush and allow the fewest points per game with 14.7. Atlanta will likely struggle putting up points while the Panthers look to clinch the NFC South and get a first-round bye.
Atlanta is a 6-point home underdog against the Panthers. The total is 45.5.
Dennis Johnson, RB, Houston Texans (Questionable, hip).
With three running backs already on injured reserve (Ben Tate Arian Foster, and Deji Karim) the Texans find themselves in trouble at the running back position. Running back Dennis Johnson is questionable with a hip injury which may leave him on the Texans sideline alongside many others. If Johnson does not start, Jonathan Grimes and rookies Ray Graham and Toben Opurum will be the Texans backs. This may not be such a meaningless game for Houston with players competing for starting jobs and roster spots in 2014 and rookies trying to prove their worth.
The Texans are 7-point road underdogs against Tennessee. The total is 43.5.
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (Questionable, hamstring).
The defending Superbowl Champion Ravens find their playoff hopes still alive but almost all of it rests on a victory in Week 17 against the Bengals. The Ravens are ranked 26th in points averaging 20.2, 29th in total yards with 313.1 and 28th in rushing yards with 85.4. One part of the Ravens' offensive struggles has been the battle of injuries all year especially at the wide receiver position. In 2013 Smith has 62 receptions for 1101 yards and 4 TDs. Baltimore will likely struggle to run the ball against a Bengals team ranked 6th against the run allowing only 99.8 yards per game.
The Ravens are 6-point road underdogs against the Bengals. The total is 44.5.
Cullen Jenkins, DT, New York Giants, (Questionable, shin/quad).
The New York Giants defense has been the saving grace of a team that has played so poorly all season. The Giants defense have allowed 337.7 total yards, good for 12th, 227.5 passing yards (13th) and 110.1 rushing yards ranking 15th. One aspect the Giants have struggled with defensively is pressuring the quarterback. The Giants are tied for 25th in total sacks with 31.0. With their tackle Jenkins out, the Giants may have difficulty with the Redskins who are ranked 5th in rushing yards with 138.2 and 9th in total yards with 377.6. With both teams having pride and jobs to play for, the Giants will feel the defensive presence of Jenkins missed.
The Giants are 3.5-point home favorites against the Redskins. The total is 45.5.Comment
-
Sunday's NFL Week 17 betting cheat sheet: Early action
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 45)
Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley's first year in Jacksonville has to be considered a moderate success - at least the second half of it. After losing their first eight games by an average of 22.2 points, the Jaguars won four of five after their bye week. The defense has been hit with key injuries late in the season, which has contributed to the Jaguars allowing 380 rushing yards over their past two games - both losses.
Indianapolis has been fairly balanced on offense, but the ground game is a bellwether for its success - the Colts are 9-1 when rushing for over 100 yards, including their past two games. Colts QB Andrew Luck (7,914) needs seven passing yards to surpass Cam Newton for the most by an NFL player in his first two seasons. The Colts have forced 10 turnovers in their last three wins and have been especially tough against the pass in recent weeks.
ODDS: Indianapolis is listed as a 10.5-point fave, down a point from an 11.5-point open. Over/under is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+5.5) + Indianapolis (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10.5
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC.
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. divisional opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)
Much-maligned Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith took his lumps in the first meeting with the Dolphins before getting benched at halftime. Running back Chris Ivory can help avoid a repeat performance for Smith by making some hay in the ground game against Miami's 25th-ranked rush defense. Ivory ran for 109 yards last week against Cleveland, but mustered just 61 in the first meeting versus Miami.
Miami QB Ryan Tannehill, who sits 291 yards away from 4,000, threw for a season-high 331 yards and two touchdowns earlier this month versus New York. Brian Hartline reeled in nine receptions for a campaign-best 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but dropped three passes last week. Hartline is 22 yards shy of amassing back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
ODDS: Miami is a 5.5-point fave after opening at -6.5. The over/under is up a half-point to 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.8) + Miami (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -6.8
TRENDS:
* Jets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 December games.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 51.5)
Stud wide receiver Calvin Johnson was limited to part-time duty last week due to knee and ankle injuries, but needs eight yards to become the first receiver in league history to reach 1,500 yards in three consecutive seasons. QB Matt Stafford is 67 yards shy of reaching 4.500 for the third straight season. He has thrown multiple interceptions in four of the past five games - 11 overall - during a late-season swoon.
Vikings QB Matt Cassel, who will make his sixth start of the season, amassed 382 yards in a 48-30 upset of Philadelphia on Dec. 15 before throwing three picks in last week's 42-14 drubbing in Cincinnati. Minnesota has also been hindered by injuries star running back Adrian Peterson, who is third in the league in rushing with 1,266 yards but has played in two of the last three and managed only a combined 58 yards on 18 carries.
ODDS: Minnesota is a 3-point fave, with the over/under down a half-point to 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (+1.0) + Minnesota (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -0.5
TRENDS:
* Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 43.5)
Receiver Andre Johnson has tied the NFL record of five 100-catch seasons (shared by Wes Welker) and is one of the few bright spots in a dismal season. Johnson ranks second in the NFL with 103 receptions and fifth with 1,358 receiving yards. Texans DE J.J. Watt has 9.5 sacks, less than half of his 2012 total (20.5) when he was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Running back Chris Johnson has experienced a lukewarm campaign but is just 50 yards away from posting his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season. Johnson had a 96-yard outing against Houston in September but that output is his second-highest of the campaign and he has rushed for 46 yards or fewer seven times. Tennessee has dropped five home games in a row.
ODDS: Tennessee opened at -6.5, but the line has been bet up one point. The total is down a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+7.5) - Tennessee (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -8.5
TRENDS:
* Texans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
* Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Tennessee.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)
Josh Gordon, whose 1,564 receiving yards are the most in a single season in team history, needs one touchdown catch to join Gary Collins, Braylon Edwards and Paul Warfield as the only Browns to reach double digits in a season. Gordon is 10 receptions away from breaking Ozzie Newsome's single-season record of 89, which the Hall of Fame tight end recorded three times. Cleveland has lost each of its last nine visits to Pittsburgh.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has dominated the Browns over his career, winning 16-of-17 starts - including all eight at home. The veteran has posted a quarterback rating of 100 with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions against Cleveland. Roethlisberger, who thrown 14 TD passes and only two picks over his last six overall games, is 247 yards away from breaking his own franchise record of 4,328 set in 2009.
ODDS: Pittsburgh is a 7-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with showers in the forecast.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) + Pittsburgh (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -10
TRENDS:
* Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 46)
The Redskins will be attempting to snap a seven-game slide when they visit the Giants in the season finale on Sunday.Redskins linebacker London Fletcher could be playing the final game of his career while extending his NFL record for linebackers to 256 straight games played. Running back Alfred Morris has gone over 100 yards in each of his first three career games against New York.
Giants quarterback Eli Manning is suffering through the worst regular season of his career with 17 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and seven fumbles. He overcame a five-INT disaster in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 to throw for 256 yards and one pick in an overtime victory last week. Wide receiver Victor Cruz is expected to miss the game with a knee injury.
ODDS: The Giants have held as a 3.5-point fave, with the total climbing a half-point to 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with rain expected and winds blowing across the width of the field at 11 mph later in the game.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+7.0) - New York (+3.3) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.7
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)
The Ravens, who fell 41-7 to New England last week, have won their last nine games following double-digits setbacks. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games, has struggled at Cincinnati, where he has four scores and six picks through the air in his last four full games at Paul Brown Stadium. Baltimore had three turnovers and totaled 189 yards in the overtime win against Cincinnati earlier this season.
Cincinnati, which locked up that division crown while crushing Minnesota, 42-14, still has something to play for, as it can attain a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Patriots, who are hosting Buffalo. Bengals QB Andy Dalton (4,015 yards) needs 117 yards to surpass Carson Palmer's franchise mark for a season, set in 2007.
ODDS: The Bengals are 6.5-point faves after opening at -5. The total is holding at 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+0.5) + Cincinnati (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -7.5
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last eight visits to Cincinnati.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5, 45.5)
Carolina has won 10 of its last 11 games primarily on the strength of a strong run game and a dominant defense. The defense was as tough as ever against the Saints, sacking Drew Brees six times and forcing two turnovers as star linebacker Luke Kuechly racked up 24 tackles. With Newton nursing an ankle injury that might limit his role in the running game, running back DeAngelo Williams (810 yards, 3 TDs) is likely to carry the bulk of the load.
Atlanta doesn't have any postseason motivation, but the Falcons would like to send off tight end Tony Gonzalez on a high note as he wraps up what he says will be his final season. Gonzalez has caught a pass in 210 consecutive games - the second-longest streak in NFL history - and already has gone over 800 receiving yards for the 13th time in his career.
ODDS: Atlanta is a 5.5-point dog, down from an open of +7. The total is up a half-point to 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Atlanta (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -6.5
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven divisional games.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Comment
-
Sunday Night Football betting: Eagles at Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 52.5)
With Tony Romo likely watching from the sideline, the Dallas Cowboys will try to save their season Sunday night when they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a winner-take-all showdown for the NFC East title. The final game of the NFL regular season will probably feature veteran backup Kyle Orton and the Cowboys taking on second-year stud Nick Foles and the explosive Eagles offense, with the winner earning a home playoff game next weekend. Philadelphia is relatively healthy and coming off arguably its best game of the season, while Dallas had lost four of six prior to last week's dramatic win over Washington.
"I think the guys have got a lot of confidence in me. I've got a lot of confidence in myself," said Orton, who has started 69 games in his career. "I can fall back on my experience. I've played a lot of games in this league. I don't feel I have to do too much with the ball, just get it to 29 (DeMarco Murray), 82 (Jason Witten) and 88 (Dez Bryant)." Bryant tweaked a back injury in practice this week, but the star wide receiver expects to play, unlike standout linebacker Sean Lee, who will miss his fifth game with a neck injury. "We're prepared to get the Cowboys' absolute best no matter who is the quarterback," said Philadelphia defensive coordinator Billy Davis, "and they are going to get our best."
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: Dallas opened +1.5 and now sit +6.5. The total opened 55.5 and is down to 52.5.
WEATHER: N/A
ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-6): Philadelphia owns the rare distinction of having the NFL's leader in passer rating (Foles, 118.8) and the league's top rusher (LeSean McCoy, 1,476), not to mention electric receiver DeSean Jackson and his career-high 79 catches for 1,304 yards. McCoy needs 37 yards to break the franchise's single-season rushing record (Wilbert Montgomery, 1512 yards in 1979), even though he has received more than 20 carries only four times all season. Foles completed 84 percent of his passes last week in a 54-11 trouncing of Chicago and threw two touchdown passes with no interceptions to improve his numbers to 25 TDs and two INTs.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-7): Orton has not started a game since the final day of the 2011 season - with Kansas City - and the 31-year-old has thrown only five passes this season and just 15 total passes the last two years. Without Romo (back), the Cowboys' offense will likely rely on Murray, who has rushed for 439 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games. The Dallas defense actually might be the team's biggest problem at the moment, however, as the team has allowed at least 21 points in every game since the first matchup with Philadelphia - a 17-3 road victory on Oct. 20.
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Eagles last eight road games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Cowboys have signed 41-year-old QB Jon Kitna to serve as a backup on Sunday. Kitna, who made nine starts for an injured Romo in 2010, last played in the NFL in 2011.
2. Only two wide receivers in the NFL average more yards per reception than Eagles WR Riley Cooper (18.1).
3. Philadelphia has allowed 21 points or fewer in 10 of its last 11 games.Comment
-
English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
Sunday's fixture list features some of the best matchups of the weekend as all clubs in action find themselves in the top 12.
Newcastle United v Arsenal (+280, +260, +105)
Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies have three wins and one draw in their last four games overall and a 5-1 thrashing of Stoke on Boxing Day proves they show no signs of slowing down. They have 18 points from nine matches - including just one loss - at St. James' Park.
Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor
Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners got back to their winning ways with a 3-1 win at Upton Park against a dismal West Ham side. The news is mixed for Arsenal as Aaron Ramsey picked up a knock against the Hammers, but Jack Wilshere will make his return from suspension.
Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Aaron Ramsey
2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 1
Key betting note: The Gunners have bagged at least three goals in their previous three away games.
Everton v Southampton (-118, +270, +375)
Why bet Everton: Everton will be without a couple of key players as keeper Tim Howard and CM Gareth Barry will miss out with suspension. Still, the Toffees are deep enough to field a strong side and will look to keep their place in the top five. A Boxing Day loss to Sunderland should light a fire under the club to get back in the winning column.
Key players out/doubtful: Tim Howard, Gareth Barry, Darron Gibson, Arouna Koné, Gerard Deulofeu
Why bet Southampton: After a rough run of form, Southampton finally collected three points with a 3-0 win over Cardiff. If the Saints want to compete for European spots in the table, they'll have to do it starting with solid defending, which they exhibited against the Welsh club. Maintaining that will be tough at Goodison Park, but if they can recapture the magic they had earlier in the season, they could be poised for an upset.
Key players out/doubtful: Morgan Schneiderlin, Guly, Artur Boruc, Victor Wanyama, Daniel Fox
2012-13 fixture result: Everton 3, Southampton 1
Key betting note: Everton has lost just three of its last 37 Premier League matches at Goodison Park.
Chelsea v Liverpool (+120, +250, +250)
Why bet Chelsea: The Blues sit third in the table, but have yet to make a statement to the rest of the league that shows they are a serious contender. The side has been winning, but no performance has displayed the dominance we've come to expect from the London club. A home win against a dangerous Liverpool side could be the signature win and statement performance that the Blues need.
Key players out/doubtful: Ramires, Ryan Bertrand, Marco van Ginkel
Why bet Liverpool: After a stunning display during their four-match winning streak, the Reds dropped their Boxing Day tilt with Manchester City by a score of 2-1. No harm in the loss as it's near impossible to win at the Etihad. They had the lead as Coutinho opened the scoring, but the City juggernaut was just too much. Chelsea is just one point above Liverpool in the table and the Reds will battle hard to both leapfrog Chelsea and continue their quest for Champions League football.
Key players out/doubtful: Steven Gerrard, Daniel Sturridge, Jon Flanagan, José Enrique
2012-13 fixture result: Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
Key betting note: Chelsea has conceded just seven goals in nine matches at Stamford Bridge this season.
Tottenham Hotspur v Stoke (-200, +333, +700)
Why bet Tottenham: Spurs earned one point after a 1-1 draw with West Brom on Boxing Day as the home woes continue. The club needed a nice run during the busy holiday schedule and three points versus a tough Stoke team becomes more important if Spurs want European football next season. Danish star Christian Eriksen scored a brilliant free kick to put Spurs on the board before allowing the equalizer not long after. History is on their side, however, as they've lost just two of the previous 38 matches with Stoke on home soil.
Key players out/doubtful: Kyle Walker, Sandro, Andros Townsend, Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul
Why bet Stoke: Stoke had gone four matches without a loss before getting hammered 5-1 by Newcastle last time out. They will be a depleted side as Glenn Whelan and Marc Wilson will both miss this game as they picked up red cards against Newcastle and Asmir Begovic and Robert Huth are injured. Manager Mark Hughes has called for his club to take out its frustrations on Tottenham and told Sky Sports, "We are exasperated by the events of Boxing Day, but we have another game coming our way very quickly, which I think is a good thing for us."
Key players out/doubtful: Marc Wilson, Glenn Whelan, Robert Huth, Asmir Begovic
2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 0, Stoke 0
Key betting note: Stoke hasn't won any of its last seven Premier League matches away from home.Comment
-
Heat at Trail Blazers: What bettors need to know
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5, 208.5)
The Portland Trail Blazers get a chance to display they are indeed one of the NBA’s top clubs when they host the Miami Heat in a Saturday night showdown. Portland is tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the league’s top record at 24-5 record after winning just 33 games all last season. Miami had a six-game winning streak halted by the Sacramento Kings on Friday and forward LeBron James suffered a groin injury during the contest.
James had 33 points, eight rebounds and eight assists against the Kings and was noncommittal when asked about his status for the Portland game. “It ain’t feeling too good right now,” James said. The two-time defending champion Heat had a four-point lead late in regulation before getting outplayed by the lowly Kings and falling 108-103 in overtime. The rise of the Trail Blazers is mostly because of the star tandem of forward LaMarcus Aldridge and guard Damian Lillard but the supporting cast is solid and Portland has scored 100 or more points in 16 consecutive games.
TV: 10 p.m. ET, Sun Sports (Miami), KGW (Portland)
ABOUT THE HEAT (22-7): Guards Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen were held out of the Sacramento contest to rest their ailing knees and forward Chris Andersen (back) also missed the game. Allen’s status for Portland is questionable, while Wade was rested due to it being the first night of a back-to-back and the Heat preferring to have him against the Trail Blazers as opposed to the Kings. “We met about it and decided that it was best for the three of them to continue to get rest,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said before the Sacramento game. “We feel fortunate for the depth we have. We feel like that is one of the biggest strengths of our team.”
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (24-5): Aldridge has already had a season’s worth of stellar efforts, so the 32-point, 10-rebound performance against the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday doesn’t stand out as anything special. But it picks up in significance when you factor in he had his wisdom teeth removed on Sunday and hadn’t had any solid food. “I’ve had nothing but soup for the last four days,” Aldridge revealed afterward. “So I was a little worried about my energy levels.” The Portland standout was strong throughout while playing 40 minutes and had all three of his team’s field goals in the overtime.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Portland.
* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero days rest.
* Trail Blazers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 16-5-1 in Trail Blazers last 22 vs. Eastern Conference.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Miami had won 19 consecutive regular-season games against Western Conference squads prior to Friday’s loss.
2. The Heat are 18-3 when Wade plays – and 4-4 when he sits out.
3. Portland C Robin Lopez had 11 points and 15 rebounds against Los Angeles for his 12th double-double of the campaign.Comment
-
NFL betting: Thad Lewis to start again for Bills
Buffalo Bills backup quarterback Thad Lewis will make his second straight start and fifth start of the season for the Bills Sunday when they visit the New England Patriots.
Bills first-round draft pick E.J. Manuel is likely done for the season with a sprained LCL in his left knee. Manuel missed three games earlier in the season with a sprained right knee.
The Bills (8-7 ATS) are currently 8-point road dogs against the home side Patriots (7-8 ATS), who are still trying to wrap up a first-round bye and if the cards fall right, home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Bills are 2-2 (3-1 ATS) with Lewis as their starter. He completed 15 of 25 passes for 193 yards and an interception in last week's 19-0 victory over the Miami Dolphins.Comment
-
NFL Week 17 road map Games that matter
As the NFL reaches the final week of the regular season, more than half the teams in the league still have something to play for.
Whether it's a playoff spot, a first-round bye or home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, teams have a variety of motivations entering Week 17. Some control their own fate, while others need a little - or a lot - of help to realize their postseason dreams.
Here's a look at the games that matter as the season winds down Sunday:
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)
The Bengals have already clinched the AFC North title, but have a first-round bye in their sights. To land one, they'll need a home victory against the Ravens, combined with a New England Patriots loss in their season finale against Buffalo. The Ravens face a more harrowing path to the playoffs; they need either a win combined with a San Diego or Miami loss, or defeats by the Chargers, Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers if they fall in Cincinnati.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 45)
The Panthers face a wide range of outcomes. A victory or a New Orleans loss against Tampa Bay would secure the NFC South championship. Carolina also has an outside shot at the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl, but would need a win over the visiting Falcons combined with losses by the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41)
Miami doesn't control its destiny in its season finale. The Dolphins need to beat the Jets at home, but can't reach the playoffs unless they also get a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, or a San Diego victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami may benefit from playing a Jets team with nothing on the line, which may prompt them to give some second and third-stringers an audition.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)
The Steelers have the longest odds of any team still alive in the playoff hunt. Pittsburgh faces a must-win scenario at home against Cleveland, but that's only the beginning, it also needs Miami, Baltimore and San Diego to all lose. That would leave all four teams in a tie at 8-8, with Pittsburgh owning the tiebreaker in that scenario based on 4-2 NFC North record and the best conference record (6-6) of the remaining teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, 45.5)
Indianapolis has already secured the AFC South championship, but has a first-round bye in its sights. The Colts can secure the extra week of rest with a home victory over Jacksonville and a loss by both New England and Cincinnati. Indianapolis has the benefit of facing a Jaguars team with nothing to play for, a threadbare receiving corps and an expected time split between running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Jordan Todman.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8, 47)
With the AFC East division already wrapped up, the Patriots find themselves in a great spot to improve their position entering the postseason. The Patriots will lock up a first-round by with a victory over the Bills; even if they lose, they'll get an extra week off if Cincinnati and Indianapolis both lose. New England also has a shot at the top seed in the conference, but will need a win combined with a Denver loss.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11.5, 53.5)
Led by one of the most historically proficient offenses in NFL history, the Broncos are in position to enjoy a home-field edge throughout the AFC playoffs. If Denver earns a victory or tie in Oakland, or if New England loses to or ties Buffalo, Denver will have the top seed in the conference. Expect Peyton Manning and Co. to pile up the points against a Raiders defense that ranks among the worst in the league.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11, 43)
The Seahawks find themselves in a similar situation as the Broncos. Seattle can clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a home victory in its season finale against division rival St. Louis. The Seahawks will also earn the No. 1 seed if San Francisco drops its last game in Arizona. Seattle fell 17-10 to the Cardinals on Sunday for its first home loss in 15 games.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (OFF)
The NFC North Division title is at stake when the Packers visit the Bears at Soldier Field. Chicago holds a half-game lead over Green Bay, and can secure the division championship with either a win or a tie versus the Packers. Green Bay will have their MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers back under center for the first time since Nov. 4 when he broke his collarbone.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Pick'em, 42)
Last week's home loss by the Seahawks opened the door for San Francisco to seize the division title. But it will need to dispatch the tricky Cardinals and hope Seattle loses at home to St. Louis. San Francisco can add home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to its resume with a victory, a Seattle loss and a Carolina loss. Arizona advances with a win or tie and a New Orleans loss - a result the Cardinals will already know come game time.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.4, 45)
The Chargers have the most interesting afternoon ahead of them, as they'll already have a good idea of their playoff future going into the game against the visiting Chiefs. San Diego can only earn an AFC wild-card berth if both Miami and Baltimore lose their early games and the Chargers go on to beat a Kansas City club that has already clinched the No. 5 seed and will be resting its starters.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 52.5)
The final game of the NFL's regular season will decide who emerges from the mediocre NFC East. The Eagles own a slight edge over the host Cowboys, meaning they can clinch the division championship with a win or tie. Dallas needs to win outright - and faces an uphill battle a quarterback Tony Romo deals with a back injury. Neither team is eligible for a first-round bye.Comment
-
Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan
Week 17 is that oddly shaped gift at the back of the tree that rattles like a tin can stuffed with marbles.
What the hell could it be?
NFL bettors don’t know what they’re tearing into when it comes to the regular season finale. Could it be a PS4 or an easy pointspread cover? Or is it a cheesy holiday-themed sweater or a team giving up on the year?
Needless to say, Week 17 gives us plenty to ponder with numerous head-scratching spreads to round of the schedule. Here are a few NFL lines making bettors go hmmm…
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)
This AFC North matchup holds a ton of playoff weight with the Ravens trying to get into the postseason and the Bengals attempting to improve their seeding. It opened at the always brow-furrowing 5.5-point spread and has since jumped to Bengals -6.
This number seems a little low – even with all things considered. Baltimore is on the road after getting coal stuffed in its stocking versus the Patriots in front of its home crowd while Cincinnati is playing some of its best football of the season down the stretch. The Ravens edged the Bengals in overtime back in Week 10 but Cincy is 4-1 in the five games since, with quality wins over San Diego and Indianapolis.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+13, 53.5)
The Broncos do need to win this game to keep the No. 1 seed safe and won’t rest their starters – at least not until they run up the score early and coast on a comfortable lead. This 53.5 point total could be a tall task with the Broncos playing it safe in the final 30 minutes.
With many key players limping into the playoffs and star pass rusher Von Miller out for the year, Denver will likely hit the Silver and Black with everything it has for two quarters before turning the offense over to backup QB Brock Osweiler and the running game.
Oakland is putting Terrellle Pryor back under center, which means more runs keeping the clock ticking. The Raiders were one of the top rushing teams in the league with the dual-threat breaking off gains with his legs and are 3-5 O/U with Pryor taking the snaps this season.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 45.5)
The Redskins have nothing left to give. Well, maybe Mike Shanahan's pink slip, but that's it. Washington played the Cowboys tough last Sunday, trying to spoil their rival’s playoff chances. And it looked like they were going to do it before Dallas scored the go-ahead TD on a fourth-down conversion in the dying minutes.
If the Redskins had any heart left, that loss ripped those leftovers out of their chests.
Enter the Giants who, after posting a goose egg through the first six games of the schedule, have been a solid 6-3 since with those losses coming to Dallas, Seattle and San Diego. New York knows how to finish strong as well, going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine Week 17 contests.Comment
-
NFL's biggest betting mismatches Week 17
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 17:
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 45.5)
Redskins’ first-half defense vs. Giants’ slow starts
A big part of the Redskins’ downfall this season was the early holes the team dug itself. Washington’s defense couldn’t stop opponents from jumping out a quick led, putting pressure on Robert Griffin III to air it out and taking the bite out of a running game that ranks among the best in the NFL. The Redskins allowed opponents an average of over 17 points in the first half and that’s been even worse recently, giving up an average of 23 points in the first two frames the past three outings.
However, the Giants may let the Redskins off the hook in Week 17. New York takes a while to get things going on offense, scoring only 8.4 first-half points per game on the year – lowest in the NFL. Turnover troubles have snuffed out plenty of scoring drives for Eli Manning & Co. The G-Men did manage to put 13 points on the board in the first 30 minutes versus Detroit last week but are averaging 4.3 first-half points the last three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)
Bucs’ offensive penalties vs. Superdome crowd
The Saints are a completely different team in the Big Easy and a lot of that has to do with the environment. The Superdome crowds are not only giving New Orleans some extra energy on offense but have helped the defense limit opponents to just 15.4 points per home game – third lowest – compared to 22.4 points per road game.
The Superdome faithful narrowly missed the record for the loudest indoor crowd earlier this month and will be a bug in the ear of Bucs’ rookie QB Mike Glennon all game. Tampa Bay has been one of the least disciplined offensive lines in the NFL, getting flagged for delay of game nine times – tied for most in the NFL – for a total of 40 yards lost this season. The Buccaneers have also been whistled for 15 false starts and 23 holds equaling 227 yards lost – second most in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 45)
Chiefs’ bench vs. Chargers’ playoff push
Andy Reid is toying with the idea of resting his starters against the Chargers in Week 17, and by the looks of this spread, oddsmakers are expecting the Chiefs head coach to do just that. Reid told the media he could play his backups Sunday, much like he did when he was on the sidelines in Philadelphia. With Kansas City inked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, there is no need to risk injury in the finale.
The Bolts, on the other hand, are hoping for a Xmas miracle. San Diego can make the postseason cut with a win over Kansas City and losses to the Ravens and Dolphins. However, those games kickoff at 1 p.m. ET and the Chargers could know their fate ahead to this 4:25 p.m. ET start. San Diego already has a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead, stealing a 41-38 victory on a TD in the dying moments back in November.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 52.5)
Eagles’ run defense vs. Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray
The Eagles may have dodged a bullet with the back injury to Dallas QB Tony Romo heading into this win-and-in NFC East showdown. But, on the other hand, Philadelphia may face a caged beast in the form of Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray. Murray is pissed with his role in the Dallas offense, after watching his dominant first-half efforts go to waste due to careless play calling in the second half. He’s second in the NFL in yards per carry - 5.4 ypc – and is 10th in the NFL in total yards on the ground despite sitting 19th in rushing attempts.
Sure, Murray has taken advantage of all the space Romo creates but he will be going up against an Eagles defense that ranks 30th in the league - 392.7 yards against per game. Philadelphia has been bullied by runners in its six losses this season, including giving up three rushing TDs to the Vikings’ third-stringer two weeks ago. Murray will get plenty of touches and could take a season’s worth of frustration out on the Eagles Sunday night.Comment
-
StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
NFL WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points
121-66 since 1997. ( 64.7% 48.4 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )
NFL DETROIT at MINNESOTA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after allowing 35 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points
93-55 since 1997. ( 62.8% 0.0 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% 0.0 units )
NFL BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (BUFFALO) after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a losing record
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )Comment
-
River City Sharps
It certainly appears that the end of the Mike Shanahan era in Washington is coming to an end after this Sunday's matchup with the Giants. While the season has also been a disappointment for the Giants, they have quietly won 6 of their last 10 games and played better during the second half of the season. A win would send them out with a good taste in their mouth and the Redskins organization is simply a disaster at this point. Even though the Giants offense has sputtered at times this season and been cursed by turovers, they are actually averaging 365 ypg in their division games and the Redskins porous defense is allowing teams to throw at a 67% clip this year. Manning and the Giants pick this defense apart to end their year. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)Comment
-
Chicago Syndicate
NFL
Game of the Month Vikings (ML)
Under Panthers
Over Bears
Giants
Ravens
Saints
CowboysComment
Comment