12-29-13

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NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

RATING 5 NEW ORLEANS (-12½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 4 WASHINGTON (+3½) over NY Giants
RATING 3 CINCINNATI (-5½) over Baltimore
RATING 2 ARIZONA (+3) over San Francisco
RATING 1 CLEVELAND (+7) over Pittsburgh

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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

It's the final week of the NFL season which means there are some teams playing for their postseason lives and some teams that are out but enjoy playing the role of spoiler.

We talk with an oddsmaker from online sportsbook BetDSI about the action coming in on some of Sunday's games.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +7, Move: +6

A win and the Panthers can clinch the NFC South crown and a first-round bye. They can get the same result with a New Orleans Saints loss but taking care of their own business will be top priority. At 9-5-1 ATS, the Panthers have been one of the best bets all season.

"Bet count is currently 2-to-1 favoring the Panthers," the oddsmaker tells Covers. "However, there is sharp money backing the Falcons at the +7 value creating a 2-to-1 money wagered condition favoring the Falcons."

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - Open: -7.5, Move: -9, Move: -7.5

The math is simple for the Patriots: Win and enjoy a first-round bye. Losses by both the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts will also ensure the Pats secure a bye, but if they trump the Bills Sunday, it will be mission accomplished.

"Both sharp and public bettors are lining up on the Pats this week and the number is currently sitting at 9 and probably will see more movement before kick off," our contact said. "Sharps backed the Pats at the -7.5 value and the public is still piling on at the -9 value."

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Open: -3

These two bitter NFC North rivals have everything to play for Sunday. A win and Green Bay takes the division while a win or a tie will earn the Bears the division crown. Bettors have lined up for this one but results are almost equally divided.

"This game of course has huge implications and has huge volume to back that fact and has had no overwhelming public favorite," the oddsmaker said. "The sharp betting contingency is backing the Packers at -3."

Meanwhile, despite some typically frigid December conditions in the Windy City, the betting public has piled on the Over here.

"The Over has been getting murdered moving from 51.5 to 53.5 based on pure public betting volume."

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers - Open: -10, Move: -9

It will take a lot for the Chargers to slip into the playoffs as they need a win along with losses from the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Since the Chiefs are in, limited snaps from the starters seems to be in the cards as the squad prepares for the playoffs.

"Despite rumors of limited play from the starting KC squad combined with San Diego needing a win to get to the playoffs, Sharp money is backing the Chiefs at the +10 value," says the oddsmaker. "Public money is behind San Diego based on their win or go home scenario."

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CHASE DIAMOMD
9* NFL ROAD WARRIOR
Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
Point Spread: +12/-110 Tampa Bay

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Ben Burns is 19-23-4 with NFL totals this season so far. The bet below is his first 'over' selection.

St. Louis vs. Seattle - December 29, 2013 - 4:25 PM

Pick: Your pick will be graded at pinnacle @ Over 43 106
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Dec 29 - 4:25 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on St. Louis and Seattle to finish OVER the total. I won with both the Rams and the "under" when these teams met back in October. Seattle won that game by a score of 14-9. I'm expecting a much different style of game here though.

When I played on the "under" in the previous matchup, the Hawks were off a game in which they allowed 22 points. I'd noticed that the only previous time that they allowed more than 20 points, they'd responded with a 20-13 win. (The Under would finish 3-0 after they allowed more than 20 points in their previous game.)

This is different though. As you know, the Seahawks were upset by Arizona last week. Not only was it their first loss, it was also their lowest scoring output of the season. Seattle would manage only 10 points.

Rather than emphasize an improved defensive effort, this time I expect the Hawks to look to get the offense back on track.

Even with last week's result, the Hawks are still averaging more than 29 points per game here.

As for the Rams, they've scored 50 points over the last two games, 27 and 23. In the seven games since they faced the Hawks, they've totaled 174, an average of 24.9 per game.


The Rams have seen the OVER go 2-0 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Going back a little further finds the OVER at 9-5 the past 14 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss.

The last time that the Hawks were held to 14 or less, they won 27-24 the next week, a game which finished comfortably above the total. I look for more of the same here. 10*

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KILLER SPORTS
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
3-STAR Chicago +13, Tennessee -1.5
Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
4-STAR Baltimore +16.5, New England -0.5, Seattle pk
MTi’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR NY Jets +6.5 over MIAMI
MTi’s Newsletter Total
4-STAR Baltimore at Cincinnati - UNDER 44.5
SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS
SBB’s Newsletter Total
4-STAR Denver and Oakland - Over

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Ats Insiders club

Jets +6
Jacksonville /Indy under 45.5
Seattle -11.5

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Prediction machine

SIDES:

(LOCK) 321 Buffalo over N E 61.7%
315 Philadelphia over Dallas 57.9%
317 Jets over Miamai 57.3%

2nd tier game: 309 Wash over NYG 55.8%


TOTALS:

Top play: 328 SF @ Arizona under 43 38.2 for 58.6%

2nd tier: 318 Jets @ Miami under 41 37.7 for 56.5%
312 Balt @ Cinc under 44.5 41.1 for 55.8%
330 KC @ SD over 45 48.2 for 55.4%

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Arizona Cardinals +1 over the San Francisco 49ers (Spread Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 4:25 PM

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K&B Sports

Washington
Jacksonville
Buffalo
San Francisco
San Diego

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Team Underground

Oakland Raiders +10.5
Carolina Panthers -6
Cleveland Browns +7
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
San Diego Chargers -9

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RxPops69
40-21-4



02:00 Buffalo +8 (814)
03:00 Morgan State +24.5 (872)
03:05 Missouri State -7.5 (850)
03:30 Miami OH -3 (820)
07:00 Cal Poly +13.5 (822)
11:00 Quinnipiac +6.5 (860)

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CHRIS JORDAN

300* Eagles/Cowboys over

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Al DeMarco

15 Dimer:

New Orleans Saints

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Jimmy Boyd (college hoops):

4* College of Charlston -8
3* Missouri State -7.5

Since Dec 17:
5* 1-2
4* 5-1
3* 5-8

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Goodfella

3* Cardinals -2.5