12-31-13

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Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose

AdvoCare v100 Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles

Opening Line: Arizona -7.5

We hope you like running the ball, because this game is going to feature a heck of a lot of it. The Wildcats' RB Ka'Deem Carey is one of the best pro prospects in the NFL Draft this year at the tailback position, and he is going against RB Andre Williams, who was one of the Heisman Trophy finalists. This is the second straight season in which Arizona has taken on a team with the nation's leading rusher, as it beat the Nevada Wolf Pack in a stunning come from behind victory in last year's New Mexico Bowl.

Sun Bowl - Virginia Tech Hokies vs. UCLA Bruins

Opening Line: UCLA -7

Here's another case where the Pac-12 is favored over the ACC in a big time way, as QB Brett Hundley, who struggled mightily in the second half of the season this year, goes against one of the best defenses in America from Virginia Tech. The Hokies have maxed out at 24 points in five of their last six bowl games, and they might have a tough time getting past the three and a half TD mark again in this one.

Liberty Bowl - Rice Owls vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Opening Line: Mississippi State -7

This is where we are going to find out whether the Owls were really capable of playing against SEC teams this year or not. They might have won 10 games, but they are getting no respect here against an MSU team which only barely squeaked into a bowl. Head Coach Dan Mullen has a good history in these bowl games, but this is the first time we have seen the Bulldogs play against a team of this caliber in quite some time.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Opening Line: Texas A&M -11.5

The Dookies have had no troubles going against the big boys in the nation this year, and though they have mostly failed in those situations, they are going to come at this game full of gusto for sure. It's tremendous exposure for a program which is playing in consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history and for a team which hasn't won a bowl game in over a half century. The Aggies are seeing QB Johnny Manziel go to the NFL after this one is over in all likelihood, and they're hoping for one last great performance to lead the way like he did when they destroyed the Oklahoma Sooners in the Cotton Bowl last year.

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H&H Sports

CFB

Triple Dime Duke

Double Dime Arizona

Dime Plays UCLA, Rice

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Dave Cokin:

Best Bet Two Units 239 Boston College +7.5

245 Duke +12.5

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Dave Essler

CFB Side Tue, 12/31/13 - 8:00 PM
triple-dime bet 245 Duke

CFB Side - Tuesday, Dec 31 2013 4:00PM
244 Rice 7.0(-110) vs 243 Mississippi St double-dime bet

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The San Diego Chargers were the team of destiny in Week 17. The Football Gods smiled upon the Bolts, handing losses to the Ravens and Dolphins while guiding a 36-yard Nick Novak field goal between the uprights in overtime to defeat the Chiefs and punch San Diego’s ticket to the tournament.

The Chargers are peaking at the right time, winning four in a row to make the playoff cut, but what goes up comes crashing down. San Diego is primed for a letdown spot after a crazy final week of the schedule in Cincinnati, where books have tabbed the Bolts as touchdown underdogs. The extended forecast in Cincy is calling for a 46 percent chance of rain and snow and temperatures in the mid 30s.

Lookahead spot

The Golden State Warriors cross the country for an East Coast road run this week, looking to pick apart the weak Eastern Conference competition. Golden State nearly got caught going easy on the Cavaliers Sunday night, needing overtime to steal a 108-104 road win and are staring down a potential lookahead spot in Orlando Tuesday.

The Warriors take on the Magic on New Year’s Eve – a dangerous spot in itself. Not only does Golden State run the risk of looking past Orlando to their Florida party plans Tuesday night but could also be ignoring Orlando with the NBA champion Miami Heat on the schedule Thursday. Orlando is coming off back-to-back home wins – SU and ATS.

Schedule spot

The Philadelphia Flyers are currently in the midst of a six-game road trip, taking the Flyers to the opposite side of the map. Philadelphia needed a shootout to edge Edmonton Saturday and take on the Canucks Monday, opening a stretch of three games in four nights that spans New Year’s Day.

Philadelphia takes on Vancouver and Calgary in back-to-back nights before making the trip up the mountain to face the Colorado Avalanche on Jan. 2. Playing in Colorado is a tough task in its own, but the thin air will have extra impact on Philadelphia coming off a grueling road schedule.

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Chicago Syndicate

CFB
Boston College
Duke & Over
Rice

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Marc Lawrence Never Lost 5* College Bowl Most Valuable Play!

Rice

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LA Syndicate

CFB
UCLA
Duke

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Sports Nostradamus

CFB
UCLA
Rice
Duke

CBB
Big Play Houston U.

Regular Plays
Xavier
Providence
Butler

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Chick Fil-A-Bowl: What bettors need to know

Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5, 75)

Game played at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia.

CHICK FIL-A BOWL STORYLINES

1. Johnny Manziel could play his final collegiate game when Texas A&M meets Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year's Eve in Atlanta. Manziel, who burst onto the scene to become the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy in 2012, finished fifth in the voting this season and said he will seek feedback from the NFL before declaring for the draft prior to the Jan. 15 deadline. If Manziel learns he may not be selected in the first round, he said he would probably return to Texas A&M.

2. Duke coach Dave Cutcliffe continues to turn around the program, which is making its second straight bowl appearance for the first time in school history. Most of the current Blue Devils got their feet wet in the postseason with a 48-34 loss to Cincinnati in the 2012 Belk Bowl, but sharing the stage with the Aggies is a far bigger step.

3. It is expected to be a high-scoring affair with the total betting line set at 73.5. Texas A&M is sixth in the nation in scoring at 43.6 points but 88th among the 123 FBS teams at 30.9 points allowed. Duke averages 31.6 points scored and 24.7 against, but struggled to stop the No. 2 scoring offense in its 45-7 loss to top-ranked Florida State in the ACC championship game on Dec. 7.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texas A&M opened -13 and has been bet down to -11.5. The total has climbed from 72 to 75 points.

TRENDS:

* Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Over is 18-8-1 in Blue Devils' last 27 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies' last five bowl games.

ABOUT DUKE (10-3, 6-2 ACC, 10-3 ATS): The Blue Devils won the Coastal Division crown - their first championship of any kind since sharing the ACC title with Virginia in 1989 - by winning their final six regular-season conference contests before having their eight-game win streak halted by the Seminoles. Cutcliffe has enjoyed the luxury of a two-quarterback system featuring juniors Brandon Connette (62.1 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions), who has a team-leading 13 rushing touchdowns, and Anthony Boone (63.9, 10, 11, with four rushing TDs). Wide receiver Jamison Crowder (96 catches, 1,197 yards, seven touchdowns) was joined by linebacker Kelby Brown (second in the conference at 9.2 tackles per game), safety Jeremy Cash and cornerback Ross Cockrell on the All-ACC first team.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 5-7 ATS): Manziel recorded another strong season statistically by completing 69.1 percent of his passes with 33 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, but wasn't able to lead the Aggies to a victory over their four toughest opponents - Auburn, Alabama, Missouri or LSU. Manziel also rushed for a team-leading 686 yards and eight touchdowns, but did most of his damage throwing the ball to Mike Evans (65 catches, 1,322 yards, 12 touchdowns). The Aggies are 15-19 in bowl games after their 41-19 victory over Oklahoma in last season's Cotton Bowl and are making their fifth consecutive bowl appearance.

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Autozone Liberty Bowl: What bettors need to know

Rice Owls vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7, 50.5)

Game played at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee.

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Rice picked up its first outright conference title since 1957 with a victory in the Conference-USA championship game and is headed to a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the second time in school history. The Owls’ reward for a strong season is a date with Mississippi State in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., on Dec. 31. The Bulldogs needed to pull out overtime victories in their final two games to gain bowl eligibility.

2. Rice coach David Bailiff was named C-USA Coach of the year by his peers after guiding the Owls to the second 10-win season in school history and can set a record with an 11th triumph. Rice ended the season with four straight wins, including a 41-24 triumph over Marshall in the C-USA championship game, and will go after the Bulldogs defense with a strong running attack.

3. Mississippi State endured a particularly brutal regular-season schedule and counts its six losses against ranked teams Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama. Quarterback Dak Prescott returned late in the season-ending win over rival Mississippi after a two-game absence due to a nerve injury in his non-throwing shoulder and should be healthy for the bowl game.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Mississippi State opened -7.5 and has been bet down to -7. The total has come down from 51.5 to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 40s with winds blowing south at 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in Owls last five neutral site games.
* Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last seven games overall.

ABOUT RICE (10-3, 7-1 C-USA, 8-5 ATS): The Owls average 240.2 yards on the ground and Charles Ross ended up with 1,252 rushing yards despite missing a pair of games in the middle of the season. Quarterback Taylor McHargue finished second on the team in rushing and guided a passing attack that tied for the fewest interceptions in C-USA with nine. “We know we are in for a tremendous challenge, but that’s what is exciting about the season we have had,” Bailiff told the school’s website. “I know our players are excited to play a team from the SEC.”

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-6, 3-5 SEC, 7-5 ATS): Prescott led the team in passing (1,657 yards) and rushing (751) and came off the bench in the fourth quarter to lead the tying field-goal drive in regulation before diving into the end zone for the winning touchdown in overtime against Ole Miss. That score made the Bulldogs bowl eligible for the fourth straight season and eliminated questions about coach Dan Mullen’s job security. “We know how good we can be and we’re not going to take anything for granted,” Prescott told the Mississippi Press of the upcoming bowl game. “We’re just going to go out there, make each other better and push each other.”

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Hyundai Sun Bowl: What bettors need to know

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. UCLA Bruins (-7, 47)

Game played at Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas.

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL STORYLINES

1. The Bruins, who play Virginia Tech in the Hyundai Sun Bowl on Dec. 31 in El Paso, Tex., have one of the top defensive ends in the nation in Anthony Barr and a talented sophomore quarterback in Brett Hundley, who must soon decide whether to enter the NFL Draft. But no player has generated more buzz than Myles Jack. The freshman linebacker added running back to his duties last month and totaled 267 yards and seven touchdowns in the final four games.

2. The Hokies weren’t a strong ground team before losing leading rusher Trey Edmunds to a fractured right tibia Nov. 30 in the regular-season finale against Virginia. Now they’ll have to lean on J.C. Coleman, who has carried the ball just 75 times for 262 yards this season, and possibly gamble with freshman Jerome Wright, who's yet to touch the ball.

3. Virginia Tech is dealing with a handful of other injuries that could impact the game, most notably to cornerback Kyle Fuller, who underwent surgery Nov. 19 to repair core muscle damage in his lower abdomen. Fuller, a first-team all-ACC pick last season, is hoping to play his final collegiate game alongside his younger brother, Kendall, a freshman defensive back for the Hokies.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: UCLA opened -7 and has been bet up to as high as -7.5. The total moved from 47 to 47.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the high 40s with winds blowing SW at 3 mph.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 9-4-1 in Hokies' last 14 games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bruins' last eight games in Decemb

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-4, 4-7-1 ATS): Logan Thomas hasn’t improved on his 2011 season when he was a second-team All-ACC selection, but the Hokies quarterback impressed enough this fall to earn an invitation to the Senior Bowl next month. Thomas continues to get dinged by interceptions, compiling 13 more this season to give him 39 over the last three years. He cleaned things up a bit during the last two months of the regular season, going without an interception in five of the final eight games.

ABOUT UCLA (9-3, 8-4 ATS): The Bruins are aiming for their first 10-win season since 2005, a year that also culminated with a victory in El Paso, Tex. Hundley has played a major role in UCLA’s outcomes this season, not only leading the Bruins in every passing category but also leading the team in rushing. He has been careful not to get too attached to a particular receiver, as both Shaquelle Evans (43 catches, 617 yards) and Devin Fuller (42-464) have taken turns leading the team in receiving.

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Advocare V100 Bowl: What bettors need to know

Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles (+7.5, 57)

Game to be played at Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana.

ADVOCARE V100 BOWL STORYLINES

1. All eyes will be on star running backs Andre Williams and Ka'Deem Carey as this New Year's Eve game in Shreveport, La., features two of the nation's top rushing attacks. Williams, who rushed for a Boston College-record 2,102 yards and 17 touchdowns, edged out Carey for the Doak Walker Award before finishing fourth in Heisman Trophy voting. Carey, a two-time All-American, also had 17 touchdowns while ranking fifth behind Williams in FBS play with 1,716 yards.

2. The Wildcats had a somewhat awkward finish to the regular season, losing three of their last four but making the one win memorable, pounding then-No. 5 Oregon 42-16 on Nov. 23. The luster of that victory was wiped away in a 58-21 loss to rival Arizona State the following week, which clinched the program's 15th straight season with at least five losses.

3. The Eagles used to make a living in bowl games, reaching 12 straight from 1999-2010 before two down years without an entry. The Wildcats are in a bowl game for the fifth time in the last six seasons.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Open Arizona -7 and jumped to -7.5. The total climbed from 57 to 58 points

WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 40s with winds blowing east at 4 mph.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats' last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Eagles' last four bowl games.

ABOUT ARIZONA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 5-7 ATS): While Carey is the star, quarterback B.J. Denker is a dual threat who can make the Wildcats' backfield nearly impossible to defend. Denker ranked seventh among FBS quarterbacks with 898 rushing yards and tied for third with 12 rushing touchdowns. However, it was Denker's ability to manage the passing game that often made the difference, as he had seven touchdown passes against one interception in Arizona's seven wins and seven touchdowns against six picks in its five losses.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5, 4-4 ACC, 7-5 ATS): The Eagles won four straight down the stretch for first-year head coach Steve Addazio before dropping the season finale at Syracuse on a late touchdown. The winning season and Williams' emergence as a national star turned the tide for a program that was mired in losing prior to Addazio's arrival. It also put a nice cap on the careers of a quality group of seniors, including Williams, quarterback Chase Rettig, B.C.'s all-time receiving yards leader Alex Amidon and record-setting kicker Nate Freese.

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INSIDER ANGLES

NCAA Football 2013-14 Bowl Previews

AdvoCare V100 Bowl - Arizona (-7½) vs. Boston College - Tuesday, December 31, 12:30 ET:
Both of these clubs finished at 7-5, but again, Arizona out of the Pac-12 faced the much tougher schedule and the Wildcats easily had the most impressive performance by either of the teams with a 42-16 shellacking of the Oregon Ducks in the second to last game of the season. Boston College is a program heading in the right direction and the Eagles have the leading rusher in the country in Andre Williams, who ran for 2102 yards on 6.4 yards per carry. However, Arizona has its own beast of a running back in Ka'Deem Carey and the Wildcats' versatile spread offense coached by Rich Rodriquez should give the Eagles fits. Boston College is 0-6 ATS in its last six December games.

Sun Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. UCLA (-7) - Tuesday, December 31, 2:00 ET:
This is another bowl that pits a Pac-12 Conference team against an ACC team, except in this one, the ACC club has a fighting chance. That is because the Hokies of Virginia Tech can play defense, ranked fourth in the nation in total defense, third in passing defense and eighth in rushing defense while allowing a mere 17.4 points per game. UCLA has the much more potent offense overall, but a couple of injuries and the suspension of tackle Torian White following sexual assault charges currently have the Bruins' offensive line down three starters with freshmen filling in at all three spots. ACC Bowl underdogs (Virginia Tech) are 39-23-2, 62.9 percent ATS since 2000.

Liberty Bowl - Rice vs. Mississippi State (-7) - Tuesday, December 31, 4:00 ET:
Rice got here by upsetting favored Marshall 41-24 in the Conference USA Championship Game to finish the season at 10-3. The Owls were 16th in the country in rushing offense with 240.2 yards per game on the ground, but quarterback Taylor McHargue hit some long passes vs. the Thundering Herd to seal the deal, and a few more of those in this game should keep the Mississippi State defense honest. The Aggies are another mid-level SEC team delegated to a minor bowl following a 3-5 conference mark, and their best win was probably vs. arch rival Mississippi in the regular season finale, which may not be saying much. Bowl favorites coming off of 3 ATS wins (Mississippi State) are only 29-50-3 ATS since 2000 for a 63.3 percent fade.

Chick-fil-A Bowl - Duke vs. Texas A&M (-11½) - Tuesday, December 31, 8:00 ET:
Is this the swan song for Johnny Manziel after only two years in college? Whether it is or is not, the Texas A&M defense is the bigger concern when thinking about giving double-digits with this team. The Aggies are ranked 106th in the country in total defense, 111th in rushing defense and 80th in passing defense while allowing 30.9 points per game. Duke was shut down by top ranked Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but there is obviously no shame in that and the offense of the 10-3 Blue Devils has a much better chance to get on track here. ACC Bowl underdogs (Duke) are 39-23-2, 62.9 percent ATS since 2000.