1-1-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN
4-Unit Play. Take #256 Stanford (-5.5) over Michigan State (5 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 1) -
Rose Bowl
I really like this Stanford team. They are one of the best five teams in college football. I think
that they will power through that Michigan State defense. Michigan State was just happy to win
the Big Ten championship game and deny Ohio State a shot at the national championship. That
really made their season. Stanford has dominated most of its opponents this year. They beat
Arizona State by 24 in the Pac-12 Championship. They also beat Notre Dame, Oregon, Oregon
State and UCLA by six points or more. They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and this
Stanford team has been one of the best bets in college football over the last four years. The
Cardinal is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 nonconference
games. Stanford is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games and Michigan State is 0-4 ATS against
teams from the Pac-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 247-248: Nebraska vs. Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 95.486; Georgia 97.091 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1 1/2; 65 Vegas Line: Georgia by 9 1/2; 60 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+9 1/2); Over

Game 249-250: UNLV vs. North Texas (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 77.731; North Texas 87.857 Dunkel Line: North Texas by 10; 50 Vegas Line: North Texas by 6 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-6 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 102.684; South Carolina 110.728 Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 8; 57 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1; 51 Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+1); Over

Game 253-254: Iowa vs. LSU (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 92.357; LSU 108.656 Dunkel Line: LSU by 16 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: LSU by 7; 49 Dunkel Pick: LSU (-7); Under

Game 255-256: Stanford vs. Michigan State (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 111.121; Michigan State 110.710 Dunkel Line: Even; 49 Vegas Line: Stanford by 5; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+5); Over

Game 257-258: Central Florida vs. Baylor (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.384; Baylor 109.752 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 19 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Baylor by 16 1/2; 68 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-16 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

10* Bowl GOY Wisconsin

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Dave Essler

CFB Side Wed, 01/01/14 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 253 Iowa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

5* Stanford -6

3* Baylor -16.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF Bowl Previews
Insiderangles

Gator Bowl – Nebraska vs. Georgia (-9) - This is a tricky matchup with both teams starting backup quarterbacks, Nebraska Coach Bo Pelini possibly coaching his final game before getting fired and two defenses that were both sub-par all season. With all of that being said, the Cornhuskers might be an overlay considering neither of these teams should really be favored over the other by this much without a clear quarterback edge in this contest. Yes, it remains to be seen how hard Nebraska plays for Pelini, but the Huskers also may relish this chance to beat an SEC school and gain some revenge for a 45-31 loss to the Bulldogs in the Capital One Bowl last season. Georgia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – UNLV vs. North Texas (-6½) - Do not adjust your sets, this seemingly low profile matchup is indeed being played on New Year’s Day, and it figures to be one of the lowest rated New Year’s bowls ever. But back to the events on the field, UNLV had a very nice turnaround after winning just two games last season to finish 7-5 and qualify for this bowl, and the Rebels played a bit of a tougher schedule inside the Mountain West than North Texas, which just finished its first season in Conference USA. UNT has nice defensive numbers statistically, although again the schedule should be brought into question, and that defense will be tested by the accurate UNLV quarterback Caleb Herring, who passed for over 2500 yards and 22 touchdowns vs. just four interceptions. North Texas is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games vs. teams with winning straight up records.

Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin (-1½) vs. South Carolina - Wisconsin was seemingly on its way to a BCS bowl when it inexplicably lost at home to Penn State 31-24 in the regular season finale as a 25-point favorite. South Carolina comes out of the SEC and went 10-2 overall, losing only at Georgia early in the season when the Bulldogs were totally healthy and by two points at Tennessee. The Gamecocks did finish the regular season with five straight wins though while going 4-1 ATS in those games when they could have easily mailed the season in after their second loss, and their top NFL prospect, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, may want to go out with a bang on this national stage. Small bowl underdogs of less than three points coming off of an ATS win (South Carolina) are 27-13-1, 67.5 percent ATS since 2000.

Outback Bowl – Iowa vs. LSU (-7) - This is another SEC vs. Big Ten matchup, except this time the LSU Tigers are probably not too thrilled about being here, not unlike last season when the Tigers lost to Clemson after missing out on a BCS bid. Iowa has some nice momentum after winning its last three games to get to 8-4, with the last two wins coming vs. Michigan at home and vs. Nebraska on the road. If LSU does not come to play, the Hawkeyes could have a surprise in store for the Tigers with the help of an Iowa defense that is ranked seventh in the country in total defense while allowing only 18.8 points per game. Single-digit bowl underdogs of +6 or more coming off of two straight up wins (Iowa) are 53-30, 63.9 percent ATS since 2000.

Rose Bowl – Stanford (-5½) vs. Michigan State - The first BCS Bowl of the season could very well be the second best matchup this year behind only the National Championship Game. Both of these teams have great physical defenses, with Michigan State leading the country in total defense while finishing 12-1 and that defense just shut down an Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship that had not lost a game since Urban Meyer became coach last year. But the biggest takeaway from that game was the development of quarterback Connor Cook, who passed for a career high 304 yards. Cook could very well end up being the key to this contest also. Michigan State is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.

Fiesta Bowl – Central Florida vs. Baylor (-16½) - The second BCS bowl this year features what many feel is the weakest team to qualify for one in UCF, but the Knights could use that as motivation, much like the Louisville Cardinals did when basically in the same situation last season before upsetting Florida. And Central Florida may not have as tough a matchup as the Cardinals had, as Baylor may have led the world in total offense, but the Bears were shown to be vulnerable when running into a good defense in their loss at Oklahoma State, and they were not as impressive in their two games that followed. Central Florida finished the year ranked 19th in the country in total defense. Big 12 bowl favorites (Baylor) are 26-40-3 ATS since 2000 for a 60.6 percent fade.

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College Football: Bowl Season Preview
Sportspic

Gator Bowl

Matchup: Nebraska (8-4, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia (8-4, 3-8-1 ATS)
Location: Gator Bowl, Everbank Field

Opening Line: Georgia -9
Current Line: Georgia -9
Percentage of Action: 66% Georgia

Key Betting Trends:
Nebraska: Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Nebraska bowl games
Georgia: 25-11 ATS in non-conference road games

Analysis: These two teams meet for the second straight year, but in a different New Year’s Day Florida bowl game. Last season, the Bulldogs covered as -9.5 favorites in a high-scoring affair. That defeat marked the third consecutive bowl loss for the Cornhuskers. Money is going Georgia’s way early on, but oddsmakers are holding tight with the line. This may be Bo Pelini’s swan song, and the Bulldogs have the weapons to make that a reality.

Early Lean: Georgia

Heart of Texas Bowl

Matchup: UNLV (7-5, 8-4 ATS) vs. North Texas (8-4, 9-3 ATS)
Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

Opening Line: North Texas -6.5
Current Line: North Texas -6.5
Percentage of Action: 64% UNLV

Key Betting Trends:
UNLV: 12-4 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons
North Texas: 7-2 ATS as a favorite this season

Analysis: Two teams that haven’t been bowling for a while meet up in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Running Rebels make their first trip to a bowl since the 2000 season. After losing and failing to cover in their first two games, UNLV has covered eight of the last 10 games, including one outright win as a three-point dog. North Texas last reached a bowl game in 2004, and since this is in effect a home game for the Mean Green, it should be noted that five of the team’s six home games went below the total. Early action has UNLV getting the most money, and their success in that area makes them a potential play.

Early Lean: UNLV

Capital One Bowl

Matchup: Wisconsin (9-3, 9-2 ATS) vs. South Carolina (10-2, 6-6 ATS)
Location: Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Opening Line: Wisconsin -2.5
Current Line: Wisconsin -2.5
Percentage of Action: 67% South Carolina

Key Betting Trends:
Wisconsin: 8-1 ATS versus teams averaging 31 points or more over last two seasons
South Carolina: Over is 8-3 in last 11 games as an underdog

Analysis: Last season, the Badgers failed to cover as four-point underdogs in their bowl matchup, but have been one of the best ATS teams this season. The Gamecocks narrowly missed covering their bowl game last year, falling short by a half-point. This year, they began 2-6 ATS, then finished by covering four of the last five games. Despite the fact that Wisconsin has the better handicapping numbers, South Carolina is getting much of the early money as the dog. That impact has yet to be felt with the line remaining where it started. The Badgers have failed to cover in their last two outings, and given the Gamecocks late-season surge in this category, this dog might bark.

Early Lean: South Carolina

Outback Bowl

Matchup: Iowa (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU (9-3, 5-6 ATS)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Opening Line: LSU -7
Current Line: LSU -7
Percentage of Action: 69% LSU

Key Betting Trends:
Iowa: 21-8 ATS after allowing 125 rushing yards or less in three straight games
LSU: 4-10 ATS as a favorite of five or more last 14 games

Analysis: The Hawkeyes return to bowl action after missing out last year. Two years ago, they were two-touchdown dogs, and still failed to cover. The Tigers lost outright as a six-point favorite in their bowl game last year. The early push has the public favoring LSU, but no line movement has taken place yet. Given the Tigers’ struggles as a favorite, taking the points is an inviting option.

Early Lean: Iowa

Rose Bowl

Matchup: Michigan State (12-1, 8-4 ATS) vs. Stanford (11-2, 7-6 ATS)
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

Opening Line: Stanford -3.5
Current Line: Stanford -3.5
Percentage of Action: 51% Michigan State

Key Betting Trends:
Michigan State: 9-1-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog
Stanford: Under is 7-1 in last eight games

Analysis: Two teams with underdog victories in their respective conference championships meet up. Michigan State is 11-2 ATS after conference win of 10 or more the last three seasons. Last year, the Spartans were two-point dogs in their bowl effort and won by a single point. The Cardinal return to the Rose Bowl and look to repeat last year’s result, when they covered as four-point chalk. Early action has seen both sides get virtually the same amount of money, with a microscopic edge to Michigan State. Taking the points might be the way to go here

Early Lean: Michigan State

Fiesta Bowl

Matchup: Central Florida (11-1, 7-5 ATS) vs. Baylor (11-1, 9-3 ATS)
Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona

Opening Line: Baylor -16.5
Current Line: Baylor -16.5
Percentage of Action: 68% Baylor

Key Betting Trends:
Central Florida: 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season
Baylor: Over is 8-4 this season

Analysis: The Knights are this year’s Cinderella BCS team, but face a formidable task. Their bowl outing was a success last year, winning comfortably as a seven-point favorite, but in one of the more obscure bowls. The Bears also make their BCS debut with a powerhouse offense. Last season, their bowl game was a rousing success, winning by 23 as a three-point dog. Baylor is getting a good portion of the early action, but they’re giving plenty of points to a UCF team that knocked off a heavily-favored Louisville squad on the road.

Early Lean: Central Florida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ten Bowl Report
By ASAWins

Gator Bowl


Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Bulldogs (-9, 60.5)
Venue: EverBank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Haven’t we done this before? Nebraska and Georgia met in the Capital One Bowl on year ago, with Georgia winning 45-31 behind five touchdown passes from Aaron Murray. Despite being just one year removed from that meeting – this game will have a much different feel. Neither of the returning QB’s from last year’s game will play here as Georgia’s QB Murray suffered a torn ACL in the 2nd to last game while Nebraska’s QB Taylor Martinez has not been fully healthy all season (just one appearance in Big Ten play). Nebraska is another Big Ten team that can’t wait to get back on the field. The Huskers lost their final game of the season at home on Black Friday to Iowa, 38-17. After the game, head coach Bo Pelini had to endure questions from the media on if he’d be fired or not. It seems that Nebraska will stick with Pelini, at least for one more game, before heading to the offseason. Nebraska finished 3-3 down the stretch. They lost at Minnesota by 11, vs. Michigan State by 13, and vs. Iowa by 21. Wins over that stretch included home vs. Northwestern by 3, at Michigan by 4, and at Penn State by 3 in overtime – meaning Nebraska came dangerously close to a complete second half breakdown this season.

Redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong, Jr. will get the start at QB here and he’ll need to throw well for the Huskers to win. He should be ready for action after a late-season ankle injury derailed him after he took over for an injured Taylor Martinez back in October. Armstrong completes just 53 percent of his passes and has seven TD and seven INT. If Armstrong struggles, Nebraska could turn to Ron Kellogg III, who started the finale vs. Iowa, but struggled in hitting 19-of-37 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. RB Ameer Abdullah has been the only constant for this offense. He rushed for 1,568 yards and eight scores this season, hitting the 100-yard mark in all but two games this season. He did that despite Nebraska shifting around its offensive line all season long after a string of injuries.

Speaking of injuries, no team in the nation had it worse than the Georgia Bulldogs. Six starters on offense suffered torn ACL’s this season (!) and high hopes of a national title went quickly out the window after a loss to Clemson in the first week of the season. Credit the Bulldogs for not quitting on the season as they won four of the final five games – including an overtime win over in-state rival Georgia Tech in the final week of the season. QB Hutson Mason will get his 2nd career start here in place of Murray. Mason has completed 64.8% of his passes for 648 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT in a little over two games of work. The offense hasn’t missed much with him under center as he led the team to 59 points and 41 points in his two games that he commandeered the offense. Star RB Gurley battled injuries throughout the year (missed three full games) but should be fully rested and healthy for the bowl game. He still finished with 903 rush yards (6.2 YPC), 344 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns (four TD in the finale against GA Tech). He finished with 125 rush yards and a score last year against Nebraska and could have another big day against this struggling Nebraska D.

Georgia’s defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL after last season and it showed early. They allowed 33 PPG through the first seven weeks but showed great improvement over the final five – surrendering just 23.4 PPG. Pelini and the Huskers would like nothing more than to close this season out on a high note with a win here over Georgia, but they’ll have to limit their mistakes. Nebraska finished minus-12 for the year in turnover margin, better than only three teams nationally. Georgia has faced three Big Ten teams in the last five Bowl games – going 2-1 SU & ATS in those games (only loss was a 3-point defeat to Michigan State in the 2011 Outback Bowl. Nebraska is 0-3 SU & ATS in the last three Bowl games, losing the last two to SEC schools.

Capital One Bowl


Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Badgers (-1, 49.5)
Venue: Florida Citrus Stadium
Location: Orlando, FL

Both of these squads finished as the third selection out of their respective conferences. Wisconsin’s loss in the final week of the regular season prevented them from being BCS Bowl eligible while South Carolina was behind Auburn & Alabama. No Big Ten team wants to get on the field more than the Badgers, who delivered their worst performance of the season in their final game against Penn State. Their stellar defense picked a bad game to have an off day as PSU racked up 465 yards and 31 points, including 339 pass yards and 4 TD from freshman QB Hackenberg. This UW defense finished 6th in rush defense, total defense, and scoring defense, and 12th against the pass. Seven of their 12 opponents were held to 10 points or fewer and not one surpassed 32 points. Offensively this unit is led by the duo of James White and Melvin Gordon at running back. Both earned 2nd Team Big Ten honors and form the No. 8 run game (283 YPG) in the nation. The speedy duo helped the Badgers average an FBS-best 8.3 yards per carry outside the tackles, and both rushed for more than 1,300 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns. Wisconsin will try to get its running attack going early in this game and take some of the pressure off of QB Stave – who did not play well to close out the season. Stave threw a career-high three interceptions against PSU and practice reports indicate that Wisconsin is giving reps to JUCO-transfer Tanner McEvoy in case Stave underperforms again.

This offense will face one of their toughest tests of the season against this fierce South Carolina defensive front. The Gamecocks ranked 32nd against the run and 18th in total defense despite playing a buzz saw of a schedule in the SEC. Just one of South Carolina’s opponents scored more than 28 points (Georgia back on September 7th) and the Gamecocks held their final five opponents (Missouri, Mississippi State, Florida, Coastal Carolina, and Clemson) to just 16.2 PPG. They won those five games by a combined 181-81 margin. The star of the show for the Gamecocks was supposed to be defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Nagging injuries and constant double-teams left him with a pedestrian season. The real stars were QB Connor Shaw and RB Mike Davis. Shaw continued to show the country why he's one of the most underrated performers. Shaw battled injuries and showed up for the Gamecocks when it mattered most. He finished the year with 2,135 yards with 21 touchdowns to just one interception. Davis, who is as much a home run threat as a legitimate between-the-tackles bruiser, rushed for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.

South Carolina’s resume is stronger as it boasts wins against Central Florida (AAC Champ) Missouri (SEC runner-up), and Clemson (playing in the Orange Bowl). Wisconsin lost its two marquee games this season: @Arizona State in a highly controversial ending and @Ohio State by seven points. Despite not returning to the Rose Bowl for the fourth consecutive season, all signs point to the Badgers being highly motivated for this game. For one, they lost all three of those Rose Bowls and they have a strong group of seniors (Jared Abbrederis, James White, and Chris Borland to name a few) that want to end their collegiate career with a Bowl victory. South Carolina has won back-to-back Bowl games, both against Big Ten opponents (Nebraska in 2011, Michigan in 2012).

Outback Bowl


Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Tigers (-7, 49)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL

Iowa bounced back nicely after a dismal 4-8 finish in 2012. Many doubted Kirk Ferentz’s team in the preseason and few had the team pegged as the 2nd best in the Legends division. Stout defensive play and a strong rushing attack led the team to an 8-4 finish, including three straight victories to close out the season. Their four losses came against Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin – who boast a combined record of 45-6. The Hawkeyes' success starts on defense, where they ranked in the top 20 nationally against both the pass and the run (7th overall in yards allowed). Everything revolves around a standout trio of senior linebackers in James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey, who combined for nearly 300 tackles and more than 30 tackles for loss. Rushing yards don’t come easy against this team as opponents average just 3.5 YPC and have scored just 5 rushing touchdowns against this Iowa defense all season long.

LSU will be dependent on running the ball as the Tigers’ starting QB all season, Zach Mettenberger, injured his knee and will miss this game. Freshman Anthony Jennings will get the start under center for LSU. He has attempted just 10 passes in relief duty this season, completing six for 99 yards with one TD. He has two of the nation’s top receivers to throw to in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Both have over 1,100 receiving yards this season with 18 combined touchdowns. Still, expect LSU to lean on a running attack led by RB’s Hill & Magee. Hill (1,185 rush yards) averages 6.8 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns while Magee (614 yards) averages 7.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. This LSU defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL last season and it has not been the dominant unit that we’ve come to expect from LSU. It’s a big testament to defensive coordinator John Chavis that he has this team ranked 20th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. This defense had its ups (21 points allowed to Auburn, 10 points allowed to Texas A&M) and its downs (44 points allowed to Georgia, 38 points allowed to Alabama), but overall is a pretty stout unit.

Iowa’s offense is far from explosive and LSU’s defense has the talent edge over the Hawkeyes O. The Hawks finished 81st in yards per game and 74th in points per game. The RB trio of Weisman, Bullock, and Canzeri combined for 1,852 rush yards (4.7 YPC) and 10 TD. First year QB Rudock finished with 2,281 pass yards (60.2%) with 18 TD and 12 INT. He has also shown the ability to extend plays with his legs (223 rush yards and 5 scores). LSU had much higher hopes than the Outback Bowl this season while Iowa is thrilled to go Bowling again after a one-year hiatus – so motivation will be a key factor in this game. LSU has dropped three of its last four Bowl games. Iowa has won three of its last four Bowl games, including a 21-point win over SEC South Carolina in the 20089 version of the Outback Bowl. These two last met in 2005 in the Capital One Bowl, with Iowa winning 30-25.

Rose Bowl


Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Cardinal (-4, 41)
Venue: Rose Bowl
Location: Pasadena, CA

The 100th Rose Bowl in 2014 looks more like a 1950’s style Rose Bowl as it features two suffocating defense and two power-style offenses. The first thing that jumps out about this matchup is the similar styles. Much like Stanford’s 20-14 win against Wisconsin in the Rose last year, points could be at a premium. Both Stanford (18.6 ppg) and Michigan State (12.7) allow fewer than 20 points per game, and the Spartans lead the nation in total defense. Neither team has allowed more than 28 points in a game this year; both allowed 28 on two occasions. Stanford will play in its second consecutive Rose Bowl after a definitive win over Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship game. The Cardinal had +206 yards and had three touchdowns of 22+ yards. Stanford’s stout defense held ASU to just 311 yards and QB Kelly to just 173 pass yards and one TD.

There’s nothing sexy about this team as they use a power-run style behind RB Gaffney. Gaffney has 1,613 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 rush TD this season (rush TD in every game but one this season). QB Hogan manages games well, but the passing attack is where this team struggles. Hogan has completed 61.4% of his passes this year with 20 TD and just 9 INT. He had just 14 TD in conference play and that includes a 5 TD performance against lowly Cal. MSU will be by far the best defense that Stanford faces this season. Rushing yards won’t be easy to come by against the top-ranked rushing defense (80 rush YPG allowed) and Hogan will be forced to make plays with his arm.

Michigan State was able to overcome an uncharacteristically poor performance from its defense to win the Big Ten Championship against previously undefeated Ohio State. OSU was able to gain 273 rush yards on 6.8 YPC, but the Spartans forced a number of key stops as OSU was just 1-of-10 on third down and 0-of-2 on 4th down. Offensively QB Cook passed for a career-high 304 yards and three touchdowns and RB Langford rushed for over 100 yards for the eighth consecutive game and sealed the game with a 26-yard rush TD with 2:16 remaining to seal the victory. Cook made huge strides this year and has developed into one of the top QB’s in the conference with 20 TD and just 5 INT this season. A balanced offense is the perfect complement to a suffocating defense and allowed the Spartans to win each of their nine Big Ten games by 10 points or more this season.

MSU leads the nation in fewest yards allowed (248.2 ypg), rush yards allowed (80.8 ypg) and third-down conversions allowed (27.7 percent), and ranks second in pass efficiency defense and fourth in points allowed. This is Stanford’s fourth straight BCS game and second straight Rose Bowl. The Spartans will play in their first BCS Bowl and haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1988, when they beat USC 20-17. The teams’ only common opponent is Notre Dame. The Irish handed Michigan State its only loss of the season, 17-13 on Sept. 21., but fell 27-20 at Stanford on Nov. 30. Stanford has won its last 10 games against ranked opponents, with the last loss coming two years ago in the Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the stats: Let's go bowling
By MARC LAWRENCE

Let’s take a look at what’s trending this New Year’s Day bowl card.

Bowling For Dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year’s Day…

Heart Of Dallas Bowl: The favorite is 2-1 ATS and the OVER is 2-1 in this bowl game since its inception.

Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five years and 6-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed each of the last three years, snapping a previous four year run by the dogs.

Orange Bowl: The favorite is 2-4 ATS the last six years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins six have been in straight up fashion.

Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 7-1 SU and ATS the last eight games versus Big 10 opponents.

Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good numbers: ACC bowl teams as dogs off a SU loss (Clemson) are 18-5-1 ATS, with Boston College and Duke results from 12/31 pending… Big 10 bowl teams off a double-digit SU win (Iowa and Michigan State) are 10-3 ATS… Big 12 bowl favorites of 8 or more points (Baylor) are 5-1 ATS… PAC 12 bowl teams off back-to-back SU wins (Stanford) are 7-1 ATS.

Bad Numbers: SEC bowl favorites of 8 or more points who allowed 35 or more points in their last game (Georgia) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers: Big 10 bowl teams who allowed 35 or more points in their last games (Nebraska) are 2-11 ATS.

Coach Me Up

Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as a bowl dog, and 3-1 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.

LSU’s Les Miles is 4-1 SUATS In bowl games vs. .818 or less opponents.

Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is 12-3 ATS away vs. an opponent off a SUATS win.

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SU favorite loss.

Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is 18-3-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents.

My Favorite Martian

Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 75-53 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 32-14 ATS.

Georgia and North Texas look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.

New Resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether UNLV maintains status quo today.

The Rebels are 10-15 SU and 16-6 ATS at home under head coach Bobby Hauck. They are 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS away from Vegas.

Stat Of The Day

Central Florida is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents in its school history.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

scott ferrall paid picks
NEBRASKA +9 ½
Georgia


Unlv
NORTH TEXAS -6


Wisconsin
SOUTH CAROLINA +2


Iowa
LSU -7 ½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

north texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges picks of the pole (free) next 3 days


Jan. 1


North Texas -6 UNLV
Wisconsin -1 So. Carolina
UCF +16 1/2 Baylor




COLLEGE BOWLS
DOUBLE PLAYS:




Alabama -14 Oklahoma (Jan. 2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

4* Iowa
4* Stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jackpot Sports

Bowl Game
UNLV +6.5