1-1-14

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Point Train's CFB Best Bet - Wednesday, January 1

6-Unit - #255 Michigan State (+6.5) over Stanford - 4:00 PM CST

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BEST Football - 25* Bowl Game of the Year - Jan. 1

25* #252 South Carolina +2 over Wisconsin 12:00 PM CT

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Maximum Football - 15* Bowl Game of the Year - Jan. 1

15* #247 Nebraska +9 over Georgia 11:00 AM CT

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Bobby Dalton Football - Wednesday Early Update - Jan. 1

10* #250 North Texas -6.5 over UNLV 11:00 AM CT
5* #251 Wisconsin -1.5 over South Carolina 12:00 PM CT

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA CHARLOTTE at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NBA DALLAS at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) revenging a loss vs opponent, off a road win
86-48 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% 38.4 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 2.4 units )

NBA PHILADELPHIA at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

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POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(6:05) WASHINGTON 105 - Dallas Mavericks 100 _____ _____

(7:05) Indiana Pacers 108 - TORONTO RAPTORS 101 _____ _____

(8:05) MINNESOTA T'WOLVES 99 - New Orleans 87 _____ _____

(9:05) DENVER NUGGETS 112 - Philadelphia 76ers 106 _____ _____

(9:35) LA CLIPPERS 113 - Charlotte Bobcats 94 _____ _____

BEST BETS
WASHINGTON
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (3)

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THE GOLD SHEET

★★★ KEY RELEASES ★★★
“OVER” in the Washington-Dallas game (Wed., Jan. 1)

★★★ OVER THE TOTAL WASHINGTON 111 - Dallas 105—Rematch of
Dallas’ 105-95 win at AmericanAirlines Center back on Nov. 12 when Wizards
did not provide much help to Nene, by far the leading scorer in the game with 27
points. But Washington appears to be a different team than it did in mid-
November, as Wizards had won three in a row on recent road trip thru Dec. 26.
Return to active duty of G Bradley Beal has sparked an offensive surge that saw
Wizards score 107 ppg and hit 31 of 59 from 3-point range in last three before
facing Twolves last Friday. Might also look “over,” as Mavs that way last 5, and
7 of last 8, and Wizards “over” last five, both thru Dec. 26. 13-DAL -5' 105-95
(206); 12-DAL -8' 107-101 (192), Dal -4 103-94 (192)

Indiana 100 - TORONTO 89—While Toronto has been offering decent
spread value on the road (and where it slipped inside 8½ -point spread at
Indiana on Nov. 8), it has not been doing so at Air Canada Centre, where it had
dropped 9 of first 12 vs. points thru Dec. 27. Meanwhile, high-flying Indiana is
11-3 vs. line away; Raptors 3-9 vs. spread at Air Canada Centre thru Dec. 27.
13-IND -8' 91-84 (187); 12-Ind -1' 90-88 (188), Tor +9 74-72 (185), Tor +7' 100-
98 (OT-189), Ind -2 93-81 (185)

MINNESOTA 109 - New Orleans 107—Refer to Minny’s game on Monday
vs. Dallas, because heading into Christmas, T-wolves had covered back-toback
games only once since Nov. 13. Return of Anthony Davis to active duty
for Pelicans suggests that new Orleans might start to cover some numbers in
the dog role as it used to do with regularity in the earlier days of HC Monty
Williams’ regime, as near-miss at Portland and romp at Sacto prior to Christmas
provide some hope. Best call at Target Center, however, might be “over,” as
Hornets that way 13-6 last 19 thru Dec. 26. 12-Min -4' 113-102 (184), NO -2'
104-92 (183), No +7' 91-83 (179), MIN +1' 97-95 (190)

DENVER 102 - Philadelphia 87—Denver is struggling a bit lately (no
covers last four). Since ranking sixth in the NBA scoring with 104.0 points per
game on Dec. 7, the Nuggets have been one of the league’s lowest-scoring
teams with a 90.6-point average (thru Dec. 26) . Their 40.4 FG % and 26.9% 3-
point shooting were the NBA’s worst marks over that span, and Denver has
only reached 100 points twice in its last 10 games. But it’s going to take a lot of
adjustments on the Nuggets by the oddsmakers to get us interested in the
skidding Sixers, who had covered just 2 of their last 13 and had won SU just 3
of their last 19 thru Dec. 26. ”Totals” alert—Denver “under” last 8, and 10 of last
11 thru Dec. 26, though Philly “over” last 5 thru Dec. 27. 13-Den -7 103-92
(210); 12-PHI +1' 84-75 (198), DEN -14' 101-100 (205)

LA CLIPPERS 100 - Charlotte 96—One of the best road trends in the
league this season has been owned by none other than the Bobcats. Prior to
last Saturday at Atlanta, Charlotte has covered 10 of its first 11 as a road dog
this season! And Charlotte has been surging of late with four wins in its last five
games (thru Dec. 26), reaching the rarified air of a .500 mark in the process.
Yes, Bobcats are a playoff contender in the (L)East! Even with covers in five of
their last six entering last Thursday at Portland, reluctant lay hefty price with
Clips against combative Charlotte. 12-La -8' 100-94 (200), LA -16' 106-84 (197)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

**PREFERRED
Dallas over *Washington by 12
Dallas is a proven road warrior going 27-11 ATS in its last 38 road contests through
the third week of this month. The Mavericks have defeated Washington seven consecutive times, including 105-95 at home on Nov. 12.
DALLAS 106-94.

Indiana over *Toronto by 6
Toronto had covered three of the first four times when playing in the second of backto-back games. The Raptors also covered in the team's first meeting losing, 91-84, at Indiana on Nov. 8. The Pacers should start to average more points with Danny
Granger back from injury and playing 20-25 minutes a game.
INDIANA 95-89.

*Minnesota over New Orleans by 6
The Hornets are far more dangerous with emerging superstar Anthony Davis in the
lineup, but were only 4-13-1 ATS during their last 18 games versus Western
Conference opponents through Dec. 22.
MINNESOTA 106-100.

*Denver over Philadelphia by 10
The 76ers' shocking 3-0 start as long been forgotten as they entered post-Christmas
play having lost 20 of 25. The return of star rookie point guard Michael Carter-
Williams does make the 76ers more respectable. They had dropped 11 of 12 without
him.
DENVER 110-100.

*Los Angeles Clippers over Charlotte by 5
Doc Rivers finally has started to get the Clippers to play defense sparked by underrated center DeAndre Jordan. The Bobcats, though, had compiled one of the best
spread marks in the league heading into the final 10 days of December going 17-10-
1 ATS.
LA CLIPPERS 96-91.

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POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(3:00) INDIANA STATE 74 - Loyola-Chicago 61 _____ _____

(3:00) FRESNO STATE 69 - Unlv 56 _____ _____

(4:00) HARVARD 78 - Boston College 62 _____ _____

(6:00) CINCINNATI 70 - Smu 63 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(7:00) WILLIAM & MARY 71 - Old Dominion 64 _____ _____

(8:00) Utah State 74 - AIR FORCE 57 _____ _____

(8:00) DRAKE 79 - Evansville 65 _____ _____

(8:00) NORTHERN IOWA 77 - Bradley 58 _____ _____

(8:00) Temple 64 - RUTGERS 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(9:00) COLORADO ST 67 - San Diego State 66 (CBSC) _____ _____

(10:00) SAN JOSE STATE 63 - Nevada 62 _____ _____

BEST BETS
FRESNO STATE
DRAKE
NORTHERN IOWA

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB BRADLEY at N IOWA
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (BRADLEY) after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in January games
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% 46.0 units )

CBB EVANSVILLE at DRAKE
Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (EVANSVILLE) excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
116-28 since 1997. ( 80.6% 53.2 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% -8.0 units )

CBB SMU at CINCINNATI
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (SMU) after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games, with all five starters returning from last season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

INDIANA ST. over Loyola-Chicago by 12 to 15—12-DNP

Unlv 74 - FRESNO ST. 63—After losing a pair of stunning upsets at the
hands of Fresno last season, surging UNLV (8 straight covers thru Dec. 27!)
should be prepared to exact some revenge at the Sav-mart Center.
Fundamentals a bit different this season, as the Bulldogs are without some of
the size (including C Robert Upshaw, who transferred out prior to the season)
that caused some of the problems for the Rebels last season. This time around,
UNLV has added rebound-machine UConn transfer F Roscoe Smith (13.1 ppg),
and it’s hard to see smallish FSU doing much business on blocks vs. Roscoe
and 6-9 frontline mate Khem Birch (3.8 blocks pg). 12-FSU +8' 64-55, Fsu +14'
61-52

HARVARD 75 - Boston College 58—Do not at all like the fundamentals of
this matchup for BC, whose lack of athleticism is reflected in shoddy defensive
numbers that include allowing better than 47% conversions of opponent FG
attempts while also getting outrebounded for the season. The former stat is
especially troubling against sr.-laden, precision-based Harvard (hitting better
than 46% from floor) and its crafty offensive scheme designed to free many of
Tommy Amaker’s shooters (led by G Wesley Saunders’ 15 ppg) for clear looks
from the perimeter. Let’s also not forget that the Crimson “D” is holding foes to
less than 40% shooting for the season, and that this game was “no contest” at
Chestnut Hill last season when Amaker’s team rolled by 16. 12-Har +4 79-63

Night Games

CINCINNATI 62 - Smu 61—With ascending SMU feeling “good vibes”
following its 62-54 upset win at Wyo before the semester break, suggest
grabbing a handful of points vs. a Cincy, still experiencing offensive lapses.
The Bearcats, who’re overly-reliant on 6-4 sr. G Sean Kilpatrick (team-leading
18.9 ppg; No. 2 scorer only 11.1 ppg) for production, will have a hard time
staving off the better-balanced Mustangs (four avg. between 8.3 & 13.8 ppg),
executing with discipline and poise under peripatetic HC Larry Brown, AKA
“The Godfather.” 12-DNP CABLE TV—ESPNU

WILLIAM & MARY over Old Dominion by 3 to 5—12-WMU -3 71-62, Wmu+5 74-62

Utah St. over AIR FORCE by 3 to 5—12-DNP

DRAKE over Evansville by 4 to 6—12-DRA +1 83-69, EVA -8 84-78 (OT)

NORTHERN IOWA over Bradley by 12 to 15—12-NIA -7 84-53, Nia -3' 68-65, NIA -11 90-77 (CIT)

Temple over RUTGERS by 3 to 5—12-DNP CABLE TV—ESPNU

San Diego St. over COLORADO ST. by 1 to 3—12-SDS -5' 79-72 (OT),CSU -5' 66-60

Nevada 78 - SAN JOSE ST. 69—Nevada has some shortcomings, but San
Jose is the type of team that the Wolf Pack can handle. New Spartan HC Dave
Wojcik has been able to mix and match his personnel somewhat effectively in
the first half of the season, and 6-6 frosh Rashad Muhammad (17.2 ppg) looks
like a keeper. But Muhammad’s shot selection leaves much to be desired, and
the Wolf Pack can drape spider-like 6-8 defensive stopper Jerry Evans on the
Spartans’ frosh star. Nothing wrong with the Nevada backcourt, featuring
Evans (also 14.8 ppg), explosive sr. Deonte Burton (22.8 ppg), and UTEP
transfer Mike Perez (13 ppg). The battle-tested Wolf Pack has already won at
Cal Poly and USF and stayed within the number at Cal. 12-DNP

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Indiana State* over Loyola-Chicago by 12

Fresno State* over UNLV by 3

Harvard* over Boston College by 9
It’s a sick world where Harvard is favored in hoops vs. Boston College. Now that the
roles are reversed, BC will probably rise up and play some basketball for a change.
HARVARD, 80-71.

**PREFERRED
Cincinnati* over SMU by 20
Did SMU head coach Larry Brown anticipate moving up in class and playing a conference road game against Mick Cronin’s athletic monsters when he signed on the
coach SMU? No, probably not. He thought he’d be facing 4- and 5-guard offenses in
Conference USA. So, cue Alice Cooper’s ‘Welcome to My Nightmare’ and check to
see if Brown is looking to get out of yet another contract.
CINCINNATI, 69-49.

William & Mary* over Old Dominion by 6

Utah State over Air Force* 7

Drake* over Evansville by 9

Northern Iowa* over Bradley by 15

Rutgers* over Temple by 1
The Scarlet Knights could use a good, home-cooked meal right about now. A nice, big
Mack and Jack attack.
RUTGERS, 77-76.

Colorado State* over San Diego State by 1

Nevada over San Jose State* by 1

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FantasySportsGametime

Football Wednesday

1000* Play Nebraska +9 over Georgia (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Starts at 12:00 PM EST
Georgia has lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games and they have also lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing as a favorite. Georgia has lost four of the last six games against the spread when playing with two weeks of more of rest and they have also lost 4 consecutive games against the spread after having won four or five of the last six games.

1000* Play Iowa +7.5 over LSU (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Starts at 1:00 PM EST
LSU has lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have also lost 5 consecutive games against the spread coming off a home win in their last game. LSU has lost four of the last five overall games against the spread and they have lost two straight bowl games against the spread.

50* Play UNLV +6.5 over North Texas (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play South Carolina +2.5 over Wisconsin (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Michigan State +6.5 over Stanford (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Central Florida +17 over Baylor (NCAA BONUS PLAY)

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The Factsman
CFB

SOUTH CAROLINA ML

STANFORD -6.5

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Joe Gavazzi

5 ntex
4 neb
4 bay ov.
3 Scar
3 cfla
2 Iowa
2 Stan