1-3-14

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Diamond Dog Sports

Oklahoma St/Missouri Under 61.5

Clemson +3

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Prediction Machine

Against the Spread Picks

262 MIZZOU vs OK ST. -1 6.1 56.7% $45
264 OHIO ST. vs CLEM -2.5 5.8 54.3% $20

Straight-Up Picks

262 MIZZOU vs OK ST. 35.6 29.5 58.2%
264 OHIO ST. vs CLEM 39.1 33.4 57.5%

Over/Under Picks

264 CLEM vs. OHIO ST. 67 72.5 Over 56.2% $40
262 OK ST. vs. MIZZOU 60 65.1 Over 56.0% $38

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GoodFella

2* Over 67 - Clemson vs Ohio St.

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Paul Leiner

100* Clemson +3

100* Clippers/Mavericks Over 203

50* Drexel +7

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The Factsman

Over 69 - Clemson vs Ohio St.

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No. 9 Missouri meets No. 13 Oklahoma State in Cotton Bowl
by Mark Kern

Cotton Bowl
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Tip-off: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma State -1.5, Total: 61

Former Big 12 rivals square off in Friday's Cotton Bowl as No. 13 Oklahoma State faces No. 9 Missouri in Arlington, TX.

The Cowboys went into their final regular season game with a chance to win the Big 12 and earn a BCS berth. However, a loss to rival Oklahoma gave the conference title to Baylor, and put OSU into the Cotton Bowl. Despite that loss, the Cowboys (8-4 ATS) still had an impressive season, and they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Justin Gilbert is one of the very best cornerbacks in the country, and he will play a big role in this game as the Tigers receiving corps is one of the best in the nation. Last season, Missouri struggled to a 2-6 conference record in its first season in the mighty SEC, but head coach Gary Pinkel has turned the club around, going 11-2 (both SU and ATS), and won the SEC East before falling 59-42 in the title game to Auburn. But Pinkel has led the Tigers to a 15-3 ATS mark (80%) after a loss by 17+ points in his tenure with the school. However, Mike Gundy has posted a 50-22 ATS mark (69%) when favored as the head coach of Oklahoma State. These former conference rivals have split their past 10 meetings (SU and ATS) since 1995, but the Cowboys won each of the past three matchups (SU and ATS), including a 45-24 blowout win at Missouri when they last met in 2011. Both teams have great offenses, combining for 78.8 PPG and 933 total YPG, making the key to winning the Cotton Bowl being which team can make the stops on defense.

The Cowboys throughout the years have been known as an offensive juggernaut, and this season was not any different. Oklahoma State ranks 13th in the nation in scoring (39.8 PPG) behind a balanced offensive attack that gains 269 passing YPG on 7.5 YPA and 172 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. Senior QB Clint Chelf (1,792 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 15 TD, 6 INT) regained his starting job after struggling early in the season, and has the ability to make plays with both his arm, as well as his legs, rushing for 321 yards (6.1 YPC) and six touchdowns. He has a terrific duo on the outside, as WRs Tracy Moore (44 catches, 638 yards, 6 TD) and Josh Stewart (52 catches, 623 yards, 2 TD) complement each other very well. Moore is a big, strong receiver that is able to make the tough catches over the middle of the field, while Stewart is a dynamic player that has the ability to make people miss in the open field and take the ball the distance. The ground game is propelled by RBs Desmond Roland (745 rush yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TD) and Jeremy Smith (442 rush yards, 3.8 YPC, 9 TD), who combined for 186 rushing yards in the last game versus Oklahoma. However, what has made Oklahoma State better this season is the vast improvement of the defense (20.0 PPG, 12th in nation), a unit that has been the weakness for the Cowboys in the past few seasons. This year, OSU has allowed 378 total YPG, broken down into 246 passing YPG (5.9 YPA) and 133 rushing YPG (3.5 YPC). The star on defense is senior CB Justin Gilbert (40 tackles) who has six interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns. While he is a terrific defensive player, he is equally as dynamic in the return game. But he'll have his hands full with the tall and athletic Missouri wideouts.

Gilbert figures to see a lot of time against guys like long-named Missouri WRs Dorial Green-Beckham (55 catches, 830 yards, 12 TD) and L'Damian Washington (47 catches, 853 yards, 10 TD) who stand 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-4, respectively. The man that feeds the large receivers is senior QB James Franklin (2,255 pass yards, 8.1 YPA, 19 TD, 5 INT) who has made terrific strides throughout his career at Missouri, leading his team to 39.0 PPG (16th in nation) on 257 passing YPG (39th in FBS) and 237 rushing YPG (16th in nation). He used to be known as a scrambler, but while he still has the ability to run and make plays (474 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 4 TD) defenses have to worry about him throwing the ball downfield. But he will be looking for redemption from that 2011 loss to Oklahoma State when he finished 14-of-27 for 184 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT. With Green-Beckham and Washington grabbing a lot of the focus of opposing defenses, senior RB Henry Josey (1074 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns with an average of 6.6 yards per carry) has had a terrific year. Josey has had a tough career having to battle with multiple ACL injuries, but he didn't show any signs of injury when he last faced the Cowboys in 2011, rushing for 138 yards on 25 carries (5.5 YPC). On defense, Missouri allows just 22.5 PPG (29th in FBS), but allows 407 total YPG 255 passing YPG (6.5 YPA) and 152 rushing YPG (4.2 YPC). In the SEC title loss to Auburn, the Tigers surrendered 545 rushing yards on 74 carries (7.4 YPC), plus 132 more yards through the air. But they have forced at least one turnover in all 13 games this year, totaling 29 takeaways.

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NCAAF BCS Bowls biggest betting mismatches
by Jason Logan

With the BCS Bowl schedule opening with the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day, we have a special edition of our biggest betting mismatches looking at the five big BCS bowl games, uncovering some of the underlying mismatches to help you get the edge.

Orange Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers (+2.5, 69.5)

Buckeyes’ battered defense vs. Tigers’ scoring options

The Buckeyes defense fell apart down the stretch, giving up 75 points in the final two games of the season, including 41 points to rival Michigan. Ohio State’s pass defense was exposed for 451 yards versus the Wolverines and 304 yards versus MSU, and limp into the Orange Bowl with significant injuries in the stop unit, most notably cornerback Bradley Roby.

Clemson’s connection of Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins is the best the nation, but the Tigers have plenty of other options on offense. Six-foot-5 WRs Martavis Bryant and Mike Williams are tough covers as is speedy Adam Humphries. Tight end Stanton Seckinger is also an option at 6-foot-4. Including Watkins, who caught 10 TDs, 13 different players caught passes for six points this season.

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OSU's DE Spence suspended for three games

Ohio State defensive end Noah Spence will sit out the Orange Bowl Friday night against Clemson and the first two games of next season as part of a three-game suspension.

No specific reason was given for the suspension other than Spence violated a Big Ten rule, the university announced Wednesday morning.

The news of Spence's Orange Bowl absence has not affected the line, where the Buckeyes are still 2.5-point faves over the Tigers.

Ohio State will miss Spence's presence in the middle of its sixth ranked rush defense. He led the Buckeyes with 13.5 tackles for a loss this season to go along with eight sacks. Spence was also named an All-Big performer and an all-conference academic player.

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No. 7 OSU clashes with No. 12 Clemson Friday
by Robert Livingston

Orange Bowl
Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 69.5

Falling one game short of a national championship berth, No. 7 Ohio State will have to regroup and prepare to take on No. 12 Clemson in the Orange Bowl, featuring two of the nation’s most prolific offenses.

The Buckeyes averaged 46.3 PPG this year (3rd in FBS), scoring at least 30 points in every single game this season. Their lone loss of the year came in the Big Ten Championship to Michigan State, when they fell 34-24. Between that and a narrow victory against Michigan, they gave up 37.5 PPG over their past two contests. The Tigers scored 40.2 PPG (9th in nation), running one of the most effective pass offenses in the country (329 YPG 11th in FBS). They also lost their most recent game, falling 31-17 at in-state rival South Carolina, while their other defeat came to No. 1 Florida State (51-14 on Oct. 19). Overall, the Tigers went 7-5 ATS this season, including 3-1 ATS in their final four games. As an underdog, they were 1-2 ATS. Ohio State finished 7-6 ATS, going 0-4 ATS in their final four contests. Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer is 38-11 ATS (78%) in all non-conference games he has ever coached, while Dabo Swinney is 12-3 ATS against good rushing defenses (allowing 120 rushing YPG or less) as the head coach of Clemson. The only time these programs met was the 1978 Gator Bowl, when Clemson won 17-15.

The Clemson passing offense continues to flourish with 8.7 YPA on 68.4% completions. That’s all credit to another solid season for senior QB Tajh Boyd (3,473 pass yards, 9.3 YPA, 29 TD, 9 INT), who completed 67.6% of his passes. Two of those picks came in the loss to South Carolina, but in the three games prior to that, he exploded for 1,005 passing yards, 12 TD and just 2 INT. He also added 273 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, despite averaging only 2.0 YPC. His top target is future NFL first-round pick, junior WR Sammy Watkins (85 catches, 1,237 yards, 10 TD), who can create a big play at any moment with his vertical speed. Watkins has at least 90 receiving yards in nine of 12 games this year. Junior WR Martavis Bryant (39 catches, 800 yards, 5 TD) also made big plays, averaging a hefty 20.5 yards per reception. On the ground, RB Roderick McDowell (956 rush yards, 5.4 YPC, 5 TD) should break the 1,000-yard mark this game after a solid season taking advantage of defenses that key in too much on Boyd. McDowell ran for 111 yards on just 14 carries (7.9 YPC) in the loss to South Carolina. Defensively, the Tigers were decent against the run, allowing 153 YPG on just 3.7 YPC, and opponents completed only 52.4% of their passes (45.9% in away games) for 198 passing YPG against a unit that yielded 21.1 PPG (17th in nation). But Clemson will be hard-pressed to keep the Buckeyes below 30 points.

Ohio State’s offense is built more on the ground, where it averaged 317.5 rushing YPG, third-most FBS. The Buckeyes scored 42 rushing touchdowns, with both RB Carlos Hyde (1,408 rush yards, 7.7 YPC, 14 TD) and QB Braxton Miller (1,033 rush yards, 6.8 YPC, 10 TD) both eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark. Hyde accomplished that feat that after missing the first three games of the year, rushing for more than 110 yards in each of his final eight games, breaking 200 yards in a game twice in the past four contests. Miller, who missed two games due to injury this year, ran for more than 140 yards in each of his past four games, averaging 156 rushing YPG on 9.4 YPC with 8 TD. But the junior is also an efficient passer, completing 63.2% of his throws for 1,860 yards (8.1 YPA), 22 TD and 5 INT. He also missed some time this year due to injury. WRs Philly Brown (55 receptions, 10 TD) and Devin Smith (42 receptions, 8 TD) were his top targets, tying for the team lead with 655 receiving yards each. While the Ohio State defense was stingy against the run, yielding a mere 103 YPG on 3.1 YPC, the pass defense often struggled, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.5% of their attempts for 260 YPG (6.8 YPA). The Buckeyes hope to capitalize on a turnover-prone Clemson team with 20 giveaways in its past eight games, including six in its most recent game, but they have forced only two turnovers in past three contests combined.

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

George Washington* over Georgia by 8
GW couldn’t put the ball in the ocean from a dock last season but the Colonials have
shown considerable improvement so far, averaging 12 more points per game. Part of
last season’s offensive stink job was being 0-for-12 on three pointers and shooting
24.6% from the field in a 52-41 loss at Georgia.
GEORGE WASHINGTON, 69-61.

Southern Miss* over Drexel by 11
Depth-shy Drexel plays on the road against a harassing defensive foe that will tax their
energy level playing 9 players for at least 10 minutes while Drexel’s starters are already
working overtime this season. Entering the week, Southern Miss’ only losses were at
Louisville and Western Kentucky.
SOUTHERN MISS, 68-57.

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POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(7:00) GEORGE WASHINGTON 64 - Georgia 61 _____ _____

(8:00) SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 73 - Drexel 66 _____ _____

BEST BETS: NONE

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets.

CBB GEORGIA at GEORGE WASHINGTON
Play On - A favorite (GEORGE WASHINGTON) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points, with all five starters returning from last season
82-41 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% 36.9 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 1.9 units )

CBB NEBRASKA-OMAHA at HAWAII
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days
72-74 over the last 5 seasons. ( 49.3% 39.6 units )
21-27 this year. ( 43.8% 10.7 units )

CBB GEORGIA at GEORGE WASHINGTON
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (GEORGIA) excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
131-75 since 1997. ( 63.6% 48.5 units )
12-6 this year. ( 66.7% 5.4 units )

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Today's NHL Picks

Tampa Bay at Calgary

The Flames host a Tampa Bay team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games against Western Conference opponents. Calgary is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 3 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Chicago at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.989; New Jersey 11.398 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-150); Under

Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.203; Pittsburgh 11.378 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+155); Over

Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.077; Calgary 12.210 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110); Over

Game 57-58: Edmonton at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.497; Anaheim 12.566 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-265); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-265); Under

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Scott Spreitzers

MegaBomb GOM
Ohio State University

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Norm Hitzges


January 3-6, 2014
Last week: 13-13
Season: 224-199
NFL




Indy -1 1/2 KC
Philly -2 1/2 New Orleans
Philly New Orleans UNDER 53 1/2
San Francisco -2 1/2 Green Bay
San Francisco--Green Bay OVER 46 1/2


BOWLS


Clemson +3 Ohio State
Missouri -1 Oklahoma St.