1-3-14

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Big_East
OK St ml/pk (-115) 1.15units
over 70 ohio st/clemson (-110) 1.10units

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Legit Picks
4* Oklahoma St -1
4* Clemson +3.5 (Buy 1/2 Pt)
4* Rockets -11.5

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Northcoast
3* over 70' ohio st

Top opinions
okie st
ohio st

Had to pick
under 61' okie st

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle from Tim Donaghy's Ref Picks site.

regular 1 unit plays

Orange Bowl Ohio State ML -145 and Over 70
Cotton Bowl Oklahoma State ML -125
NBA Memphis Grizzlies +5/-125

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GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 03, 2014 6:38 AM by GT Staff

NBA Basketball

809 Los Angeles Clippers -1: We will lay the one point on the road with the hot LA Clippers as they have gone 7-3 ATS in their last ten games while the home team Dallas Mavericks have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

811 Memphis Grizzlies +4: Parry’s NBA Power Guide makes the Grizzlies a -2½ point favorite in this matchup, we will take the two buckets.

Results 2013-14 NBA (Thur 3-2-0) Overall Record: 37-31-4

NHL Hockey

55 Tampa Bay Lightning -120: Tampa skates into Calgary off a win and face off with the Flames who have dropped three straight games.

Results 2013-14 NHL (Thur.1-0-0) Overall Record: 57-42-1

NCAA Football

261 Oklahoma State / 262 Missouri OVER 61: After watching the last several bowl games this one looks like a must go over, the Cowboys had been scoring in bunches before the loss to Oklahoma.

263 Clemson +3: Bowl teams coming off a loss, their first of the season who won 7 or more games the previous year have gone 0-6 ATS, they Buckeyes lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game.


Results 2013-14 NCAA FB (0-0-0) Overall Record: 94-62-5

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NCAA Football Play of the Day January 03, 2014 7:00 AM by GT Staff

AT&T Cotton Bowl - AT&T Stadium - Arlington,Texas on FOX

Oklahoma State vs. Missouri at 5:00 p.m. PST

The line on this has moved from Mizzu -1½ to Okie State -1½ and we will follow the money in this game especially after watching Oklahoma beat Alabama straight up last night as a +17 point dog bringing the SEC down to earth. HC Gundy of the Cowboys has gone 9-0 SU when coming off a loss.

261 Oklahoma State -1½


Results 2013-14 NCAA FB (Thur 0-1-0) Overall Record: 20-23-1

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NHL

Hot teams
-- New Jersey won five of its last eight games.
-- Pittsburgh is 14-3 in its last 17 games. Rangers won four of their last five.
-- Lightning won six of their last eight games.
-- Ducks won eleven of their last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Blackhawks lost three of their last four road games.
-- Calgary lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Edmonton lost three in row, eight of last ten games.

Totals
-- Last three New Jersey games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Penguin games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Tampa Bay games.
-- Last six Anaheim-Edmonton games went over total.

Series records
-- Devils lost four of last six games with Chicago.
-- Rangers lost nine of last eleven games with Pittsburgh.
-- Home side won last four Tampa Bay-Calgary games.
-- Ducks won six in row, 16 of last 18 games with Edmonton.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball


3-Unit Play. #816. Take George Washington -9 over Georgia (Friday @ 7pm est).

This is an opportunity for George Washington to exact revenge from a really poor showing to this Georgia team they lost to previously on the road 52-41 (not even topping 45 points in that game). Mike Lonergan's team remembers that loss certainly and with Georgia having Missouri on the docket after this game you would think its hard for them to focus for a team like George Washington with Mizzou on deck. George Washington won just 10 games last year but this year ranks as a top 100 squad and as they come off a tough loss to Kansas State on the road they will likely be in a foul mood as they return home to face a team they lost to by a score of. This is a team that beat Maryland, Creighton and Miami of Florida in overtime this year as this is a tournament squad facing a team in the top 150 and the fact that this team is an SEC team they are facing they will certainly be up for this game. Note, Georgia comes off a loss as well at the hands of Colorado by 14 and now they face George Washington prior to heading to a big in conference matchup with Missouri. So, with revenge, getting up to play the bigger SEC team, GW on the bounce-back after a tough loss to a solid Kansas State team as they now return home to play Georgia on Friday Night and with UGA looking ahead to Missouri, let's roll with George Washington this evening as they likely win by 13-15 points this evening which is where we have it.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball


3-Unit Play. #802. Take Washington -3 over Toronto (Friday @ 7pm est).

You can't hold grudges against teams and you have to play the line that Vegas gives you as its about motivation, let downs and situations in the NBA. You have a Toronto team that comes off a huge, emotional win against the Pacers and they are in for a classic let down against the Wizards who come off a terrible game against the Mavericks on their home floor on New Years day. This has a reminder to the Bucks winning at Staples against the Lakers only to lay an egg on the road at Utah (which was our premium selection yesterday). So, its a good situation here for Washington coming off a loss, who has revenge from an earlier season loss to Toronto on the road and with the Raptors coming off a big win against a contender at home (which is why that line was so small at +5.5 to begin with for the home dog Raptors). There is a reason why the Wizards favored here as both teams are on an up tick and the motivation factor will be there for Washington to pick up the win this evening and also take down the public as well with it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Raptors won eight of their last ten games (5-1 last six AU). Wizards won five of its last seven (4-5 HF).
-- Atlanta won six of its last eight games (8-5 HF). Warriors won their last seven games (6-2 last eight AU).
-- Mavericks won four of last five games (0-2 HU).
-- Grizzlies won four of last six games (4-6 AU).
-- Jazz won three of its last four games (9-5 last 14 AU).

Cold Teams
-- Boston lost five of its last six games (0-3 last three HF). Pelicans lost six of last seven road games (2-4 last six AU).
-- Knicks lost four of last six games (2-7 last nine AU). Houston lost its last two games, allowing 113.5 ppg (8-4 last 12 HF).
-- Clippers lost three of last five games (6-3 last nine AF).
-- Denver lost its last eight games, five of last six by 8+.
-- Lakers lost their last six games (2-3 HF).

Series records
-- Raptors lost five of last six visits to Washington.
-- Warriors won last three games with Atlanta by 3-4-22 points.
-- Pelicans won five of their last six games with Boston.
-- Knicks lost their last eight games with Houston.
-- Clippers won four of last six games with Dallas.
-- Home team won ten of last twelve Denver-Memphis games.
-- Lakers lost four of their last five games with Utah.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Toronto road games stayed under.
-- Last five Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven New York road games went over total.
-- Five of last six Dallas home games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Denver home games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Laker games stayed under the total.

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Larry Rao
Wash -3
Utah +3.5
LAC ov 204
OK St -2
all 6 unit plays

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Big Al

3* Ohio st

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Dr. Bob College Football

Ohio State (-2.5) 41 Clemson 34
Fri Jan-03-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 264 Over/Under 67.5 - Matchup Stats


I liked Ohio State in this game enough to make them a Best Bet but a suspension to defensive linemen Noah Spence, coupled with the star cornerback Bradley Roby being downgraded to doubtful with a knee injury suffered in the Big 10 Championship game is enough to make me back off a bit. Even with those injuries my math model still leans with Ohio State and the Buckeyes apply to 43-8-2 ATS bowl situation that is based on their upset loss to Michigan State.


Ohio State’s defense was 0.7 yards per play better than average during the regular season, as their 1st unit allowed just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl to an average team but not having top CB Roby and top pass rusher Spence obviously hurts that unit. Roby was #3 on team in tackles, which is very good for a cornerback, while leading the Buckeyes with 16 passes defended while Spence had 8 sacks and 6.5 other tackles for loss. Over the years I’ve studied the affect of defensive injuries on defensive performance and using the combined statistics of those two key defenders would result in a predicted increase of 0.32 yards per play (0.18 yards per rushing play and 0.45 yards per pass play). That difference adds up to 3.4 points, which is a pretty significant number for two defensive players. Ohio State has played one full game (week 1 against Buffalo) and parts of two other games without Roby (against Iowa and Michigan State) and the pass defense was still 0.3 yards per pass play better than average on 73 pass plays without Roby (6.1 yppp against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense). Now, without Spence rushing the passer the pass defense should be a bit worse than that and Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd can certainly take advantage. Boyd averaged 8.1 yards per pass play in 10 games against FBS foes that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and I project Boyd at 8.3 yppp in this game. Clemson’s run defense is mediocre (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Ohio State’s run defense is still 0.6 yprp better than average even after adjusting for the injuries, so the Tigers are expected to average just 4.5 yprp in this game. Overall I have Clemson racking up 530 yards at 6.6 yppl in this game while controlling the ball for 13 more plays than the Buckeyes are likely to run.


Ohio State’s offense ranked 4th in my ratings this season behind only Florida State, Baylor, and Oregon, averaging 43.8 points on 514 yards at 7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. That attack was very good early in the season but it got even better at the start of Big 10 play when star RB Carlos Hyde was able to play after serving a 3 game suspension and quarterback Braxton Miller returned from an injury that kept him out nearly 3 full games. From week 5 on with both Hyde and Miller the Buckeyes attack averaged 43.6 points on 515 yards at 7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Hyde ran for 1408 yards at 7.7 yards per run despite missing 3 games while Miller ran for 1121 yards at 8.2 yards per rushing play while averaging 7.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB). Clemson’s defense is pretty good at 0.7 yppl better than average but they gave up 51 points on 565 yards at 7.9 yppl to Florida State and 35 points on 551 yards at 8.0 yppl to Georgia, whoare the only two elite offensive teams that the Tigers faced this season. Ohio State, meanwhile, scored 40 points or more against every team expect the 3 best defensive teams that they faced (Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State) and averaging 30 points against those 3 strong defenses is still very good given that those 3 teams would combine to allow just 16.7 points to an average offensive team. Clemson’s defense isn’t good enough to slow down the Buckeyes and my math model projects 504 yards at 7.3 yppl for Ohio State in this game.


Clemson is projected to gain more yards in this game but Ohio State’s 7.3 yppl to 6.6 yppl advantage is actually more significant than the total yards edge in favor of the Tigers and the Buckeyes have a 3.2 points advantage in special teams and a slight edge in projected turnovers. Overall the math favors Ohio State by 4 points with a total of 74.8 points even with the 3.4 points applied for Ohio State’s defensive attrition. That’s not much line value but Ohio State does apply to a 43-8-2 ATS bowl bounce-back situation. I still like Ohio State to cover even with their defense at less than full strength, but not enough to recommend them as a Best Bet anymore. I think the better play is on the over, as I project 75 points based on projected stats and 76 points based on a compensated and adjusted points model. I’ll lean with Ohio State and I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 71 points or less and a lean at higher than 71 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob College Football


Oklahoma State (-2 ½) 33 Missouri 29
Fri Jan-03-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 261 Over/Under 61.0 - Matchup Stats
Both of these teams lost their final game and were denied a conference championship but Missouri may be a bit more disappointed since a win over Auburn in the SEC Championship game likely would have put the Tigers in the national championship game while Oklahoma State simply would have been in a different major bowl game. Regardless of motivation my math model pegs Oklahoma State as the better team. Missouri has a bit of an edge offensively but Oklahoma State’s defense is clearly better than the Tigers’ stop unit and that could be the difference in what should be a competitive game.


The Cowboys are a good offensive team, averaging 38 points on 448 yards at 6.1 yards per play in 11 games against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That attack improved a bit midseason when Desmond Roland (4.7 ypr) took over for Jeremy Smith (3.8 ypr) as the featured running back in week 9 and Clint Chelf became the full time quarterback in place of J.W. Walsh. The compensated passing numbers of Chelf (7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) and Walsh are about the same but Chelf proved to be a better runner (368 yards at 7.8 yards per running play) and the offense rates at 0.8 yppl better than average currently. That unit has an advantage over a good but not great Missouri defense that has yielded 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. My math model projects 445 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Cowboys in this game.


Missouri’s offense was 1.2 yppl better than average this season (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and the Tigers are actually a bit worse with quarterback James Franklin back. Franklin missed some games in the middle of the season and backup Maty Mauk, while not nearly as accurate a passer, made more big plays and averaged more yards per pass play against tougher competition than Franklin. Franklin still posted good numbers, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback, and Missouri’s attack is still 1.1 yppl better than average with Franklin at the controls (just 0.1 yppl worse than their season average). Oklahoma State’s defense was very good this season, allowing just 4.9 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Cowboys’ defense is just as good as Missouri’s offense and the math projects 423 yard at 5.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.


Overall the math model favors Oklahoma State by 3 points with a total of 62.6 points and the adjusted points model favors the Cowboys by 3 ½ points with a total of 60.9 points. A negative 12-38-1 ATS bowl situation applies to Missouri, so I’ll lean with Oklahoma State at -2 ½ or less and I have no opinion on the total.

[golden contender]

GC: NBA PLay

T.G.I.F Card has 26-0 NBA Revenge Power Angle play, 21-1 Dog system + 94% Orange Bowl system and Triple System Cotton Bowl Winner. NBA Cashed big again on Thursday night and continues to lead several Leader Boards. Free 3* NBA System below



In the NBA on Friday night we have a solid 3* system side on the NY. Knicks plus the points. Game 807 at 8:05 eastern. The Knicks have home loss revenge for a 109-106 loss to Houston at the Garden earlier in the season and we can expect another closely contested hard fought game here tonight. We saw what they did last night, taking down the Spurs on the road with 4 days rest and avenging their worst loss of the season. They may be ready to finally gain some momentum and play up to their level of last season, instead of toiling at the back of the pack, like they have done for most of this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ats as a road dog of 10 or more with no rest off a road game last night and all road teams in Houston and getting 10+ points have covered 4 straight if they were on the road last night. The Rockets are 1-7 to the spread at home with rest as a favorite if they are off an ats loss of 10 or more as a home favorite in their last game. Now for our Super system side. Play against non divisional home favorites at -10 or higher with rest that are off a home favored spread loss by 7+ points and scored 90 or more if they allowed 100 or more and are playing an opponent, like NY Tonight that was a road dog of 10 or more points in their last game. These home favorites are 4-26 ats and 1-18 if they were favored by 5 or more in that home loss. With Melo back for the Knicks, Look for NY To stick around tonight. Take the Points. On Friday we have 4 Powerful Plays 2 in the NBA and Both Bowls. Jump on Now and start the weekend big. For the free 3* NBA System Play take the NY. Knicks plus the 11 points. GC

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Power Play Wins

Oklahoma St -2

Ohio St -3

Denver -4