1-5-14

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NCAA Football Game Pick

SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 267-268: Arkansas State vs. Ball State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 85.546; Ball State 84.065
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Ball State by 9 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+9 1/2); Under

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NFL Wildcard trends: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
By MARC LAWRENCE

Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

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Nelly's Greensheet:

Cinci over SD by 3

GB over SF by 3

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Playbook:

Cinci over SD by 4

GB over SF by 3

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Goldsheet:

Cinci 29 SD 16

SF 29 GB 22

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PointWISE:

Cinci 37 SD 22

GB 31 SF 30

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Football Jesus : packers + points

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Today's NFL Picks

SUNDAY, JANUARY 5 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/1)

Game 105-106: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.817; Cincinnati 137.797 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 43 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 47 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Under

Game 107-108: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.597; Green Bay 140.991 Dunkel Line: Even; 51 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 48 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over

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Marc Lawrence Never Lost NFL Wild Card Play Of The Year!

Packers

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NFL

Wild Card Round

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)—Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)—Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.

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Berman
SD 23 CIN 21
SF 26 GB 20

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Joe Benigno
CIn -7
SF -3

Evan Roberts
CIN -7
GB +3

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Fezzik
Over 62 Ball St Ark St

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Norm Hitzges

Last week: 13-13
Season: 224-199

NFL


San Francisco -2 1/2 Green Bay
San Francisco--Green Bay OVER 46 1/2