If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:
AUBURN (269) AT FLORIDA ST. (270)
Latest Line: Florida St. -10.5; Total: 68.0
The Tigers finished the regular season as the nation's top rushing offense (335.7 YPG), including 296 against Alabama's elite D. They then had 545 against Missouri in the SEC title game, with RB Tre Mason rushing 46 times for 304. Auburn went 5-0 ATS as an underdog this year. The one close game Florida State played was at BC, a team that similarly features a Heisman candidate RB (Andre Williams). The Seminoles allowed 200 rushing yards in a 48-34 win that day. Since then, they've outscored opponents 484-79 over nine games, with no one coming closer than 27 points to the Noles.
FORECASTER: Florida St. 43, Auburn 25
Play Title 10* Money-Bomb
Play Selected Point Spread: -7.5/-110
Taking FLORIDA STATE here. Ok. Florida State has demolished every good team it has faced. No questions about it. I think Auburn is having a good year but is getting some gift plays, fluke perhaps. Lucky even. God's hand intervention maybe? A 109 missed FG return for a TD. A hail-mary TD pass. I mean come on? How many lives do these guys have left. I guess you might be worried that they feel unstoppable. And they should. They have gotten some huge breaks. But I am not buying them. Jimbo Fisher will have something special cooked up for this offense that went ballistic for nearly 550 yards rushing in the SEC Championship game. Seminoles DC and DE coach were both with Alabama in 2011. I think they know defense and Auburn. The SEC has owned the BCS. Now their conference champ is a dog. And a significant dog I think. Manziel ripped this defense for 450 yards passing and 4 TDs. I think Jameis Winston can do the same. The edge here is the defense and I think FSU has the better one. 10* Money-Bomb FLORIDA STATE
Daily Wager with Weekend Warrior January 06, 2014 6:27 AM by Mark Mayer
NCAA Football BCS Championship Game
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, Calif., at 5:30 p.m. PST on ESPN
270 FLORIDA STATE -10: The big money pushed this one up from 7½. Florida State has not had a game closer than 14 points. Duke and Clemson were blowouts and each played well in the bowls. Auburn’s task is to keep the game close. Easier said than done.
NCAA Football Play of the Day January 06, 2014 6:22 AM by GT Staff
NCAA Football BCS Championship Game
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, Calif., at 5:30 p.m. PST on ESPN
Auburn +10 vs. Florida State
This game had been sitting on -8 and -8½ for a long time after opening up at -9 but the money came in on the favored Seminoles this weekend and has driven the number up to -10 and what a value play this will be on the Auburn Tigers. We love this play on several angles, one the Heisman Jinx, as Bowl teams with a player who just won the award have gone -16 SU and 0-7 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points when playing a team with a winning percentage of over .900% and Auburn HC Malzahn’s has gone 14-1 SU when coming off a conference game.
GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 06, 2014 6:15 AM by GT Staff
NBA Basketball
701 Minnesota Timberwolves -6½: The 76ers are just bad, and by far the worst team in the Atlantic Conference East while Minnesota is a very good team and the Parry’s NBA Basketball Power Guide has them -11½ points better in this matchup on the road.
Results 2013-14 NBA (Sun. 1-2-0) Overall Record: 40-33-4
NHL Hockey
8 Colorado Avalanche -200: We will lay the high price in this game as the Flames skate into Colorado with a four game losing streak, it will go to five tonight.
Results 2013-14 NHL (Sun. 2-0-0) Overall Record: 60-42-1
NCAA Basketball
710 Texas Tech +1: We will rely on Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide for three plays in College hoops, the ratings have Texas Tech six points better at home.
716 The Citadel +3½: Big difference in this game as the Power Guide has The Citadel -4½.
718 NC Greensboro -7: We have Greensboro 14 points better at home over Furman.
Results 2013-14 NCAA BK (Sun 0-1-0) Overall Record: 33-26-0
Florida State vs. Auburn - January 6, 2014 - 8:30 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at pinnacle @ Under 68 -108
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Jan 6 - 8:30 PM
Reason For Pick:
I’m playing on Auburn and Florida State to finish UNDER the total. These teams can both score points. Both were involved in a number of high-scoring games on the season; each was profitable for “over” bettors. Therefore, its not surprising that this O/U line has climbed since it came out. I don’t expect to see quite the shootout that most others seem to be anticipating though and believe the high line is providing us with very fair value.
While they were indeed potent offensively, the Seminoles were also very stingy defensively. On the season, they allowed a mere 10.7 points per game, an average of 269.3 yards. In their last five games, they allowed 3, 3, 14, 7 and 7 points. (That’s an average of less than seven ppg.)
While the Tigers certainly got in some shootouts, keep in mind that nine of their 13 games produced 65 or fewer points.
The SEC defenses weren’t as dominant this year, as Alabama was the only team to allow less than 20 ppg. That means that this FSU defense will arguably/likely be the best one that Auburn has seen all year. (Note that even with the crazy ending, the Alabama game still finished with “only" 62 points and that it had an O/U line of just 52.5.)
The fact that there’s been all this time to prepare figures to help the defensive game planning, while potentially adding some rust on the offensive side of things.
A look at the previous BCS games, dating back to 2007, shows combined scores of 56, 21, 41, 58, 38, 62 and 55.
The Tigers know that they need to try and control the clock to have a chance at the victory. I expect a heavy dose of the run to help chew up the clock, leading to a final combined score which stays below the number. 10*
Game: Iona at Quinnipiac (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Quinnipiac -150 (moneyline) at Diamond
Quinnipiac moves over from the Northeast Conference into the Metro Atlantic, and the Indians can play. For the last several years they have had a rebounder in the top 10 in the country, and no different this season with Ike Azotam, scoring 16.8 points per game and pulling down 10.7 boards. This team is tough off the glass with three players all averaging eight boards or more. Iona will have trouble getting the ball off the glass, and that will be the difference here. The Gaels feature just a single player generating at least five boards a game, and that will be problematic here on the road. The Indians have the home court and will dictate the tempo here, and the glass is the difference maker. Play on Quinnipiac on the moneyline.
4-Unit Play #705 Take Orlando +9.5 over LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
Normally teams step up the first game after their star goes down, but the Clippers looked really bad in their first game without Chris Paul in a 20+-point loss to the Spurs on Saturday. While we don't think the Clippers are going to really fall apart with Paul sidelined, we do think that you have to look at the opponents when the Clippers are laying a big number like this. Orlando has been great at covering big lines this season as they are 5-2 ATS when getting nine or more points. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. They are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in LA and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups overall. This is a young, scrappy team that seems to get up for strong opponents, and we think that they keep this game close enough to cover the big line on Monday.
Comment