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Thursday, January 16
Georgia State won last seven games, with four of last five on road; they won first three Sun Belt games by 9-10-23 points, while protecting ball better than anyone in US (12.9% turnover rate), while forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Arkansas State is 0-4 vs top 100 teams,; all losses were by 12+ points; Red Wolves make 39.4% of 3's, #26 in nation. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-10 vs spread.
Missouri made 11-21 from arc in 81-59 drubbing of Vanderbilt LY, first SEC series meeting; game was 49-20 at half. Tigers won its two games on road, by 4 at NC State, 2 at Auburn. Commodores lost three of last four games, losing at Alabama by 5, to Kentucky by 9 here in first two conference games. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Memphis won five of last six games, but loss was to Cincinnati in only AAC home game; Tigers are shooting just 29.4% from arc, but they get turnovers 22.7% of time, leading to shorter possesions (0:15.8, #31 in US). UConn is 1-2 in true road games winning by 12 at Washington, but losing at Houston/SMU in AAC games. Huskies are making 41.4% on arc. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-6 vs spread.
Colorado has horrible injury luck, losing star Dinwiddie for year, frosh Fletcher for six weeks; this will be emotional game for them after losing to UCLA by 13-3 points in first two Pac-12 meetings. UCLA lost by 9 at Missouri in only true road game, back on Dec 7; Bruins are shooting 41% from arc (#12 in US), 55% inside it, but they haven't left LA much. Pac-12 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-3 vs spread.
Ohio State won its last six games with Minnesota, winning last two here by 13-10 points; Buckeyes lost last two games to Michigan State/Iowa after a 15-0 start- they split pair of road games, winning at Purdue by 9, losing in OT in East Lansing. Big Dozen home underdogs are 3-4, 0-3 if getting less than 4 points. Gophers split first four conference games- all four games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT.
BYU won three of four WCC meetings with San Francisco, winning by 1-4 in its visits here; home team won all five of Cougars WCC games so far this year- BYU lost by 11 at LMU, 6 at Pepperdine, before winning last three games at home. USF is 4-2 in WCC with two OT wins- they got whacked at Gonzaga/St Mary's, but beat Pepperdine/LMU at home. WCC favorites are 8-3 if spread was five or less points.
Arizona won five of last six games with Arizona State, winning last three in Tucson by 11-17-15 points; Wildcats play great defense (#2 eFG% in US) and share ball well with McConnell at PG- they also rebound 41% of their own missed shots. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread. ASU is 13-4 with three losses by 11+ points; Carson is terrific PG, but rest of team isn't athletic enough for this opponent.
Gonzaga won last 20 games with Pepperdine, but they had similar win streak vs Portland and lost to Pilots last week; Zags' last eight wins here were all by 10+ points. Waves are 4-2 in WCC, beating San Diego, BYU in only two road games. Zags won by 4 at West Virginia, lost at Portland in their only two true road games. WCC home underdogs are 3-2, 3-0 if they're getting 6+ points.
USC won two of first three Pac-12 games with Utah, winning here by 17 LY, then losing to Utes in Pac-12 tourney; Trojans lost first three games in league this year by 34-19-20 points- they're shooting 21.7% from arc, turning ball over 23.2% of time in league games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-6, 4-3 if laying double digits. Utah is 1-3 in Pac-12 with all three losses by 3 or less points- they make 57.7% of 2's, #1 in country.
Long Beach State won last five games with UCSB, winning last three in Thunderdome by 16-23-7 points, but 49ers overscheduled again (played #2 schedule to this point), are just 3-11 vs D-I teams- they've played 10 top 100 teams already. Gauchos lost Big West opener at home by 8 to Cal Poly, but they also beat Cal in this gym and Cal is good- UCSB has made 38.6% from arc so far- they were 2-17 against Cal Poly.
Belmont beat Eastern Kentucky by 7-11 points in their first season in OVC; Bruins are 4-0 in OVC this year, with three wins by 11+ points and road wins by 13-15 at SE Missouri/UT-Martin. EKU are forcing turnovers 23.4% (#9) oif time; they're 2-2 in OVC, losing to Murray St. in OVC home opener. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-2 vs spread. Belmont's offensive eFG% of 58.0% is #2 in country.
North Dakota State hammered Neb-Omaha by 44-27 points LY; Bison are 3-1 at home vs D-I teams, losing to Southern Miss by point- they're making 56.9% of 2's but aren't great defensive team. Omaha is improved this year- they lost by 8 at Iowa, 3 at UNLV and beat Nevada in Reno; Mavericks force turnovers 20.8% of time, make 78.7% of free throws, #2 in country they also forcer turnovers 20.8% of time.
Fort Wayne is 4-4 on road, with all four wins vs teams ranked at #227 or lower; Mastodons make 38.9% of 3's (#32), won their first two Summit games over ND State/SD State, both at home. Fort Wayne is 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 150, beating North Dakota State last week. Denver runs Princeton offense, which can be tough to prepare for; they've lost four of last six games, with last three losses by 5 or less points or in OT.
Thursday, January 16
Georgia State won last seven games, with four of last five on road; they won first three Sun Belt games by 9-10-23 points, while protecting ball better than anyone in US (12.9% turnover rate), while forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Arkansas State is 0-4 vs top 100 teams,; all losses were by 12+ points; Red Wolves make 39.4% of 3's, #26 in nation. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-10 vs spread.
Missouri made 11-21 from arc in 81-59 drubbing of Vanderbilt LY, first SEC series meeting; game was 49-20 at half. Tigers won its two games on road, by 4 at NC State, 2 at Auburn. Commodores lost three of last four games, losing at Alabama by 5, to Kentucky by 9 here in first two conference games. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Memphis won five of last six games, but loss was to Cincinnati in only AAC home game; Tigers are shooting just 29.4% from arc, but they get turnovers 22.7% of time, leading to shorter possesions (0:15.8, #31 in US). UConn is 1-2 in true road games winning by 12 at Washington, but losing at Houston/SMU in AAC games. Huskies are making 41.4% on arc. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-6 vs spread.
Colorado has horrible injury luck, losing star Dinwiddie for year, frosh Fletcher for six weeks; this will be emotional game for them after losing to UCLA by 13-3 points in first two Pac-12 meetings. UCLA lost by 9 at Missouri in only true road game, back on Dec 7; Bruins are shooting 41% from arc (#12 in US), 55% inside it, but they haven't left LA much. Pac-12 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-3 vs spread.
Ohio State won its last six games with Minnesota, winning last two here by 13-10 points; Buckeyes lost last two games to Michigan State/Iowa after a 15-0 start- they split pair of road games, winning at Purdue by 9, losing in OT in East Lansing. Big Dozen home underdogs are 3-4, 0-3 if getting less than 4 points. Gophers split first four conference games- all four games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT.
BYU won three of four WCC meetings with San Francisco, winning by 1-4 in its visits here; home team won all five of Cougars WCC games so far this year- BYU lost by 11 at LMU, 6 at Pepperdine, before winning last three games at home. USF is 4-2 in WCC with two OT wins- they got whacked at Gonzaga/St Mary's, but beat Pepperdine/LMU at home. WCC favorites are 8-3 if spread was five or less points.
Arizona won five of last six games with Arizona State, winning last three in Tucson by 11-17-15 points; Wildcats play great defense (#2 eFG% in US) and share ball well with McConnell at PG- they also rebound 41% of their own missed shots. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread. ASU is 13-4 with three losses by 11+ points; Carson is terrific PG, but rest of team isn't athletic enough for this opponent.
Gonzaga won last 20 games with Pepperdine, but they had similar win streak vs Portland and lost to Pilots last week; Zags' last eight wins here were all by 10+ points. Waves are 4-2 in WCC, beating San Diego, BYU in only two road games. Zags won by 4 at West Virginia, lost at Portland in their only two true road games. WCC home underdogs are 3-2, 3-0 if they're getting 6+ points.
USC won two of first three Pac-12 games with Utah, winning here by 17 LY, then losing to Utes in Pac-12 tourney; Trojans lost first three games in league this year by 34-19-20 points- they're shooting 21.7% from arc, turning ball over 23.2% of time in league games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-6, 4-3 if laying double digits. Utah is 1-3 in Pac-12 with all three losses by 3 or less points- they make 57.7% of 2's, #1 in country.
Long Beach State won last five games with UCSB, winning last three in Thunderdome by 16-23-7 points, but 49ers overscheduled again (played #2 schedule to this point), are just 3-11 vs D-I teams- they've played 10 top 100 teams already. Gauchos lost Big West opener at home by 8 to Cal Poly, but they also beat Cal in this gym and Cal is good- UCSB has made 38.6% from arc so far- they were 2-17 against Cal Poly.
Belmont beat Eastern Kentucky by 7-11 points in their first season in OVC; Bruins are 4-0 in OVC this year, with three wins by 11+ points and road wins by 13-15 at SE Missouri/UT-Martin. EKU are forcing turnovers 23.4% (#9) oif time; they're 2-2 in OVC, losing to Murray St. in OVC home opener. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-2 vs spread. Belmont's offensive eFG% of 58.0% is #2 in country.
North Dakota State hammered Neb-Omaha by 44-27 points LY; Bison are 3-1 at home vs D-I teams, losing to Southern Miss by point- they're making 56.9% of 2's but aren't great defensive team. Omaha is improved this year- they lost by 8 at Iowa, 3 at UNLV and beat Nevada in Reno; Mavericks force turnovers 20.8% of time, make 78.7% of free throws, #2 in country they also forcer turnovers 20.8% of time.
Fort Wayne is 4-4 on road, with all four wins vs teams ranked at #227 or lower; Mastodons make 38.9% of 3's (#32), won their first two Summit games over ND State/SD State, both at home. Fort Wayne is 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 150, beating North Dakota State last week. Denver runs Princeton offense, which can be tough to prepare for; they've lost four of last six games, with last three losses by 5 or less points or in OT.
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