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This certainly isn’t the feature game of the night but it pays the exact same as any other game and we’re suggesting it’s a soft line. On paper, Elon is 9-8 overall and 2-1 in the Southern Conference while Davidson’s overall record of 7-10 is two games back of Elon. However, Davidson is 3-0 in the conference and there is a reason why they are favored by 7½ against a team who has a better overall record than they do. We’ll get to that in a minute. First, the Elon Phoenix has played one of the worst schedules in all of Division I college basketball. Elon’s 9-8 record comes after playing the 303rd (out of 347) toughest schedule in the nation and most of the teams that have played an easier schedule than they have are schools you’ve never heard of like Houston Baptist, New Jersey Tech and Delaware State among others. Three of Elon’s victories have come against Division II schools and its other victories came against Marist State, Georgia State, Columbia, Virginia Military, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State and Citadel. Combined, Appalachian State and Citadel are 0-6 in the conference and 8-24 overall. Elon has played two ranked teams, Colorado and Duke and they lost by 17 and 38 points respectively while allowing at least 80 points against in both games. Elon also allowed Canisius 86, Charlotte 83, Georgia State 85, and two Division II schools to score 74 or more. This is dumpster fire Elon team but they are not priced as such.
Prior to conference play, the Wildcats of Davidson had dropped five in a row to drop their record to 4-10. However, the Wildcats lost to Duke, Virginia, Clemson, #19 New Mexico, then #14 North Carolina and #10 Wichita State. That counted for six of their 10 defeats. Davidson has victories this season over Charlotte (a team Elon lost to by 14) and Georgia. Their loss to North Carolina occurred in OT and in Wichita State they hung around the entire night and eventually lost by 11. With that difficult schedule comes a reward that Davidson is reaping right now. They have shot out to a 3-0 conference mark with all three victories being by 12 points or more. This strong program keeps churning out top caliber talent and this year is no different. The Wildcats are clearly the best team in the Southern Conference but have not been recognized as such yet and that allows us to take full advantage of this under the radar cheap price.
Not convinced that the Bruins deserve to be favored here. Boston has one win over their past four games, a 1-0 victory over the Sharks in a game that could have gone either way. The B’s have just three wins in their past eight games and the schedule has not been kind to them either. After a tough trip to the West Coast with games in Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose, the Bruins returned home to face the Leafs on Tuesday. Now they’re back on the road in another time zone making this their third different time zone in their past three games over five days. That’s not easy, physically or mentally, and as goaltender Tuukka Rask put it, “It’s draining mentally when you travel a lot, and you play every other day”. Speaking of Rask, the goaltender is approaching his career-high in starts (39) for an NHL season after headlining his 37th game of the year Tuesday night vs. the Maple Leafs. Rask is sporting a 3.00 goals against average and a rough-looking .898 save percentage to go along with a lackluster 2-3-0 record in five starts since the beginning of January. He’s also been pulled three times over his past 12 starts. In other words, he’s not unbeatable at the moment. It doesn’t help that the B’s are without defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Seidenberg. Boston is simply not playing well right now.
The Stars aren’t playing well either and that’s a surprise because this team has far too much talent to be hovering around the .500 mark and sitting below Minnesota and Phoenix in the standings. Dallas just snapped an ugly six-game losing streak with a much needed win over the Oilers. Defeating Edmonton is not a big deal but what it does is take a heavy load off their shoulders. When talented teams are slumping, one victory is all it takes to get going. One win often leads to two or more and we saw a very similar scenario with the Senators, a team that took a long time to get going but that has suddenly gotten hot. Dallas could be next in line for a big run providing they get adequate goaltending. A visit from what has to be a tired Bruins team that isn’t playing well lines up well for the Stars to string together a couple of wins in a row.
FLORIDA +132 over San Jose
OT Included. The Sharks have been potent from an offensive standpoint the entire year but the injury bug has bit them, leaving a couple of key players on the rack. Missing from the Sharkies lineup are Tomas Hertl (25 points in 35 games) and Logan Couture (35 points in 43 games). The fact that those two are centers hurts the club even more. San Jose is just 4-4 over their past eight games and this is a game they are not likely to be jacked up for. The Sharks last visit to Florida was back in February of 2011 and when they lace up for tonight’s game they’ll be playing in a half empty arena with no atmosphere. The Sharkies have just one regulation goal over their past two games and just nine over their past five games. Scoring is way down and so is the Sharks quality of play.
The Panthers are dangerous as hell. They’re coming off a 4-2 victory over the then red-hot Islanders. They’ve picked up points in six of their past eight games and both losses over that span came by a single goal. Prior to losing to Winnipeg 10 games ago, the Panthers had won eight of nine games. Ed Jovanovski is back in the lineup after missing 83 games dating back to last season. Jovanovski will play in his fifth straight game here and his presence makes this team better. Left winger Sean Bergenheim missed 10 games with a lower-body injury but is back in the lineup and has six goals in his last eight games and is playing outstanding hockey. The Panthers are not an easy out. They play hard, they play with confidence, they’re talented and when the opposition comes in here and doesn’t give it their all, they will lose. The Sharks are in danger of doing just that.
Game: Oakland at Cleveland State (5:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +7.5 (-110) at Sportsbook.com
The Oakland Grizzlies are just 7-12 to start the season, but their record is quite deceiving. The Grizzlies took on arguably the strongest out-of-conference schedule in the nation with games against UCLA, North Carolina, California, Gonzaga, Indiana, and Michigan State. That sure helps to soften the 1-7 road mark, and this team should be toughened by the level of competition they have faced this season. Cleveland State is 10-8, but has certainly had an easier path to get here. These teams are significantly separated by record only, but on the court they are a lot closer than the uncompensated line. Take the points on Oakland.
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