1-25-14

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NCAAB

Saturday, January 25

Florida State won three of last five games with Duke, with three wins by 5 or less points- they split last four visits here. FSU is 0-2 vs Virginia, 4-0 vs rest of ACC, with road wins at Clemson/Miami. Duke is 2-1 as ACC home favorite, winning by 22-4-35 points. Seminoles are making 43.8% of 3's in ACC games, #1 in league; Duke is #3, at 40.3%. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 10-6 vs spread.

Providence won/covered last four games, were favored only once, with a win over Creighton; Friars are playing slowest tempo in league because they use a 6-man rotation. Xavier is 5-1 in Big East, 6-0 vs spread, with only loss by 6 at Creighton; they've scored 80+ points last four games. These are two best rebounding teams in league. Big East dogs are 6-1 vs spread in games where number was 4 or less points.

LaSalle won 69-61 at VCU in only A-13 meeting LY, after trailing by 8 in second half; Explorers only had 14 turnovers that day, are turning it over 19% of time in A-13 play this year (17.9% LY). LaSalle is 2-0 at home in league. beating GW/URI, scoring 74 ppg. VCU forces turnovers 26.1% of time; they split first two A-13 road games, winning at Dayton after losing by 10 at GW. A-13 home underdogs are 4-5 vs spread.

Towson beat Delaware by 3-20 points LY after losing previous five to Blue Hens. Underdogs covered Tigers' first four CAA games; they're 2-0 as road dogs, winning at Drexel/Charleston. Delaware is 5-0, with three of five on road- they won first two home games by 7-5 points, but didn't cover either, as road teams covered all seven of their league games. CAA home favorites are 4-14 against the spread this season.

Iowa State lost its last three games (giving up 83.3 ppg) after 14-0 start, despite being favored in all three; Cyclones won three of last four games with Kansas State, with all four games decided by 9 or less. Wildcats are 5-1 vs spread in league games, losing by 26 at Kansas, 3 at Texas, with win at TCU. Big X home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-6 vs spread. ISU's two Big X wins are by 13 at Texas Tech, 15 over Baylor.

Texas lost three of last four games with Baylor, losing last two visits to Waco by 5-7 points. Longhorns won last four games after 0-2 start in league- they're 1-1 as road dogs, losing by 13 at OSU, winning by 11 at West Va. Baylor lost its last three games after a 13-2 start; they're 1-1 as home favorites, losing to Oklahoma after beating TCU by 26. Big X home favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 2-4 if laying 6 or less points.

Maryland lost three of last four games, but they're 2-0 at home in their last year in ACC, beating Ga Tech/Notre Dame; favorites covered five of their six league games. Pitt is 5-1 in ACC, with only loss at Syracuse by 5; they've won at NC State by 12, Ga Tech by 7. ACC home underdogs are 4-8 vs spread. Pitt's 55.2eFG% on offense is best in ACC- they are making 52.5% of 2-pointers, 42.9% outside arc.

Tennessee won last three games with Florida; teams played once LY in first year of un-balanced schedule. Vols are 2-0 as road dogs, losing by 8 at Kentucky, winning at LSU. Gators won by 6 at Alabama Thursday, have less prep time here; they're 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 16-20 points. Vols are rebounding 41.2% of missed shots in league; Florida is #10 in SEC on defensive boards. SEC home faves of 9+ points are 6-3.

Michigan won four of last six games with Michigan State, losing last two visits here by 10-23 points; home side won last four series games, but Spartans have injury issues, with Payne/Dawson (hand) out. State won its last 11 games; they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning by 4-12-5 in its home games. Wolverines are 6-0 in league, with three wins on road, two as dog. Big Dozen single digit favorites are 5-16 vs spread, 1-9 at home.

Creighton was ridiculous 21-35 from arc in win at Villanova Monday, is 2-1 as Big East home favorite, winning by 18-6-28 points- they've made 43.5% of 3's in league (4-19 in only loss, at Providence). Georgetown is 1-4 without Josh Smith (grades/out for year), with only win at Butler in OT. Hoyas lost other two road games. by 18 at Providence, at Xavier by 23. Big East double digit home favorites are 3-3 vs spread.

BYU has to bounce back from triple OT loss at Portland Thursday, in which Austin/Haws both played 50+ minutes, two others played 43+. Cougars lost last four games with Gonzaga after winning first meeting in WCC, losing here by 11-20 points- Portland loss snapped their 5-game win streak. Gonzaga is 3-2 as WCC home favorite, with four wins by 14 or more points. WCC home favorites of 6+ points are 8-10 vs spread.

Cal-Irvine was 2-1 vs Hawai'i LY, beating Warriors by 11 in conference tourney in Hawai'i's first year in league- they won by 4 here, lost by 6 on islands. Anteaters are 4-0 in league, 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 18-6 over Fullerton/CSUN. Big West home favorites of 9 or less points are 1-5 vs spread. Hawai'i won last two games by 31-17; they're 2-2 in true road games, losing by 12 at Cal Poly, 1 at Northridge.

Belmont won seven of last eight games; lone loss was 74-63 at Eastern Kentucky, when they were -11 (20-9) in turnovers. Bruins are 1-2 as home favorites, winning by 11-2-14 points; they swept EKU by 7-11 points LY. Colonels won last four games, are 3-1 on OVC road, losing by 6 as 11-point favorites at Edwardsville. OVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 10-8 against the spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 25

Hot teams
-- Bulls lost three of their last four games. Charlotte won three of last four home games, but lost by 29 in NYC last night.
-- Clippers won seven of their last nine games. Toronto won five of its last six home games.
-- Thunder won/covered last six games; Durant (shoulder) didn't play in last night's game.
-- Rockets won six of their last eight games. Memphis won six of last seven games.
-- Pacers won six of their last seven games.
-- Wizards won five of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota won last three games, is 13-9 vs spread on road. Portland won six of its last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost eight of last ten games, are 7-14 vs spread at home.
-- Milwaukee lost 18 of last 21 games. Hawks lost three of last four on road (8-12 vs spread on road).
-- Nuggets lost four of last five games, are 8-12 vs spread at home.
-- Utah lost three of its last four games.

Series records
-- Bulls won nine of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Clippers won three of last four games with Toronto, but lost three of last four visits north of border.
-- Thunder won its last eight games with Philadelphia.
-- Memphis-Houston are 7-7 in last 14 meetings after Grizzlies won by a point in Houston last night.
-- Hawks won eight of last nine games with Milwaukee.
-- Nuggets won six of last seven games with Indiana, last three all by 4 or less points.
-- Jazz won three in row, six of last eight games with Washington.
-- Trailblazers won five of last six games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Four of last five Charlotte home games went over.
-- Nine of Clippers' last ten road games went over.
-- Four of last five Thunder road games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Houston's last ten road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Atlanta road games went over.
-- Last five Denver home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Washington road games went over.
-- Over is 10-1-1 in last dozen Minnesota-Portland games.

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NHL

Saturday, January 25

Hot teams
-- Carolina won seven of its last ten games.
-- Islanders won seven of their last ten games. Blues are 6-2 in last eight road games, 3-4 in last seven games overall.
-- Avalanche won five of their last six games. Tampa Bay won its last two games, scoring nine goals.
-- Columbus won last eight games, scoring 19 goals in last four.
-- Maple Leafs won won six of their last seven games. Winnipeg won four of last five.
-- Penguins won seven of their last nine games. Dallas won last two games, 7-1/4-0.
-- Ducks won 20 of their last 23 games.
-- Sharks won last five games, allowing seven goals. Minnesota won eight of its last eleven.

Cold teams
-- Senators lost three of their last four games.
-- Philly lost four of its last five games. Bruins lost four of their last six road games.
-- Washington lost its last seven games, scoring eight goals. Canadiens lost four of their last five games.
-- Sabres lost six of their last seven games.
-- Kings lost their last four games, all on the road.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight St Louis games; six of last seven Islander games went over.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Philly games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Montreal games. Six of last eight Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Last five Buffalo games went over the total.
-- Last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Pittsburgh games went over total.
-- Last three Anaheim games stayed under the total;
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Minnesota games.

Series records
-- Senators lost five of last six games with Carolina.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with St Louis.
-- Bruins are 10-3 in last 13 games with Philly, but lost last two.
-- Canadiens lost nine of last eleven games with Montreal.
-- Lightning lost five of last six games with Colorado.
-- Blue Jackets won last three games with Buffalo.
-- Jets won three of last four games with Toronto.
-- Dallas Stars lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh.
-- Kings won eight of last twelve games with Anaheim- this game is outdoors at Dodger Stadium.
-- Sharks won three of last four games with Minnesota.

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Cappers Access

Duke -8.5
Tennessee +9
Michigan St -4.5

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Sports Nostradamus

Duke
Over Iowa
Under Kentucky
Florida

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The Winners Circle

SATURDAY BASKETBALL PLAYS

10* Play Houston +1 over Memphis NBA TOP PLAY
10* Play LA Clippers +1 over Toronto NBA TOP PLAY


10* Play UTEP -16.5 over TX-San Antonio NCAA TOP PLAY
10* Play Oklahoma State -14 over West Virginia NCAA TOP PLAY
10* Play Louisiana Tech -19.5 over Marshall NCAA TOP PLAY

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LA Syndicate

Wyoming
Oregon St
St Mary's
Arizona State

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Chicago Syndicate

Duke
VCU
Iowa State
Butler

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H&H Sports

Triple Dime Pittsburgh
Double Dime Columbia & Baylor

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SB Professor MMA Picks 1/25

Alex Caceres (+215) over Sergio Pettis

Adriano Martins (+180) over Donald Cerrone

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Xavier +1½ over Providence (Spread Bet) (NCAA College Basketball) - Game Starts at 12:00 PM EST - EARLY PLAY ALERT

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Gold Sheet CTO Saturday, January 25

*WAKE FOREST over Notre Dame (Day Game)...Tourney-seeking WF enhanced its self-image by snapping a 17-game ACC road losing skein at Virginia Tech Wednesday. So suggest laying a short price vs. depth-shy Notre Dame, recouping from an emotionally/physically draining 74-72 loss at Florida State on Tuesday. Sole Irish post scorer 6-10 sr. C Garrick Sherman (14 ppg) will have a hard time fending off the Deacs’ active inside pair of 6-9 soph Devin Thomas (11 ppg, 8.6 rpg) & 6-9 F Tyler Cavanaugh (9 ppg, 4.6 rpg). Look for home- loving WF to climb to a perfect 12-0 SU this season in friendly Lawrence Joel Coliseum. *WAKE FOREST 76 - Notre Dame 65 RATING - 10
*MISSOURI over South Carolina (Day Game)...Being shorthanded and inexperienced at point guard is NOT a good way to go into the pressure cooker that is Columbia (Missouri), even if you are from Columbia (South Carolina). Such is the case for the Gamecocks, who have lost 5-9 sr. PG (and football WR) Bruce Ellington to NFL draft prep and jr. G Tyrone Johnson to injury. USC is 0-4-1 its last five as a visiting underdog, while the quick, long-armed, uptempo Tigers are eager to get back on track after Tuesday’s 77-71 loss at LSU. *MISSOURI 85 - South Carolina 60 RATING - 11
AKRON over *Central Michigan...It’s no mystery that CMU is still seeking its first signature win of the season, considering that the defensively-porous Chips are yielding a woeful 46.9% from the field (309th in U.S.). So, recommend laying about 4 hoops with an Akron team that showed it will vigorously defend its MAC title in its wire-to-wire 78-68 upset win at defensively-strong Eastern Michigan on Wednesday. The Zips got a big boost off the bench from 6-7 soph wing Jake Kretzer, who poured in 25 pts., while pass-first soph PG Carmelo Betancourt dished out 8 assists. AKRON 76 - *Central Michigan 61 RATING - 10
SANTA CLARA over *San Francisco...Sure, it’s revenge time for USF after being swept by down-the-peninsula rival Santa Clara a year ago, including humiliating 31-point loss on the Hilltop. But these battles between longtime Bay Area Jesuit rivals are always high-spirited both ways. And Broncos have offered much better value lately on road (covering 4 of last 5 away from Leavey Center), with new-look backcourt featuring jr. Brandon Clark (17.7 ppg more than twice as good as previous career high) and frosh Jared Brownridge (16.6 ppg) making recent suspension of sr. G Evan Roquemore easier to overcome. WCC sources report Dons never really replaced PG Cody Doolin, who left team in November. SANTA CLARA 74 - *San Francisco 70 RATING - 10

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Manhattan (-10 1/2) on Friday and likes Iowa State on Saturday.

The deficit is 95 sirignanos.

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SPORTS WAGERS NHL

N.Y. ISLANDERS/St. Louis over 5½ -109

Islanders’ games rarely go under this number, especially when a team that can score is the opponent. In fact, 12 of the Islanders last 17 games have gone over 5½ and in nine of those games the winning team scored five times or more. The Islanders have scored four goals or more in four straight and they have also allowed four or more in four straight. This is an Islanders team that is loaded with a bunch of hot snipers right now and it’s not like they’re facing strong goaltending. Fire away on Jaroslav Halak (today’s confirmed starter) and pucks will find the back of the net.

St. Louis has scored 173 goals, which ranks them third in the NHL behind Anaheim and Chicago. That bodes well here against an Islander team that has allowed more goals than any team in the league besides Edmonton. When the Blue Notes play teams that are not defense oriented, the games almost always go over this number. The Islanders defense is a mess, their goaltending has been erratic the entire year and even without Alex Steen, St. Louis, with its relentless forecheck, should have little difficulty padding their offensive numbers. The winning team in this series has scored five goals in three straight seasons and this year’s offense on both clubs are scoring in bunches.


Ottawa +112 over CAROLINA

Regulation only. On Thursday we discussed the Philadelphia Flyers grueling schedule and the negative impact of a postponed game against the Hurricanes that was made up the next day. In a difficult scheduling spot, the Flyers were soundly defeated by the Blue Jackets, 5-2. We have a similar fade here against the Hurricanes. Carolina has played four games since last Saturday. Its game against Philadelphia, originally scheduled for Tuesday, was postponed due to weather and ended up being played on Wednesday. Tuesday was a difficult traveling day for the ‘Canes. They subsequently played Wednesday and they also played the very next night in Buffalo. Carolina was mentally prepared for a game and a day off but instead they had a postponement, followed by back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. This game was originally scheduled for Friday but because teams do not play three games in three days it was moved to this afternoon. To make matters worse, this game starts at noon, making it five games that seem like six in seven days with a very early start to boot. Carolina, running strictly on fumes, does not figure to be sharp here.

Ottawa has played many afternoon games already this year and it’s something they are accustomed to. The Senators have dropped four of five but again, it’s because Coach Paul MacLean insists on using the inferior Craig Anderson instead of Robin Lehner but that is not the case here, as Lehner is the confirmed starter. The Senators own a better record on the road than they do at home and they come into this one in an extremely favorable scheduling spot. They are fresher and they should be much hungrier too. You see, this venue has been a house of horrors for the Sens, as they have lost 10 of the past 11 games here and they have to be sick of losing here already. This is the perfect opportunity for Ottawa to get this proverbial monkey off their backs. Anything less than a strong 60 minute effort against an exhausted and vulnerable team would be a huge disappointment.


WINNIPEG -½ +120 over Toronto


Regulation only. What often happens after a long winning streak is snapped is consecutive losses and sometimes it extends longer than two games. The Maple Leafs got very hot there for a stretch but they were brought back down to earth by a 7-1 shellacking in Dallas on Thursday. A close look, however, reveals that the Maple Leafs winning streak had a lot of good fortune attached to it in the form of outstanding goaltending. The streak started with a 3-2 OT victory over New Jersey in which the Maple Leafs were clearly outplayed, not to mention outshot, 38-25. The following game against Boston, the Leafs were outshot 41-26. The next three wins came against three cold teams in Buffalo, Montreal and Phoenix and the last game was the most legit of them all, a 5-2 victory in Colorado. Give the Maple Leafs a little credit for stringing together some wins but like most of their wins this season, the Leafs were the second best team on the ice in at least half of the six victories. James Reimer gets the call tonight in the Leafs fourth consecutive road game in four different time zones.

Winnipeg returns home from a brief two game trip through Anaheim and San Jose. They beat the Ducks 3-2 and lost to San Jose, 1-0. Combined, that pair has three regulation losses at home in 47 games. The Jets are playing with a new found confidence since Paul Maurice took over. In five games since replacing their coach, Winnipeg has four wins and one loss and has not allowed more than two goals against in any game. In its two home games under Maurice, Winnipeg held Phoenix and Edmonton to 19 and 22 shots on goal respectively while firing away 38 and 39 shots on net themselves. Anything close to that here against this beatable team with Reimer in net, gets us to the cashier’s booth.

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SPORTS WAGERS CBB

DePaul +8 -106 over SETON HALL

6:00 PM EST. Both these teams have similar records in both conference play and overall but the similarities end there and it’s not in Seton Hall’s favor. When we look at strength of schedule of these teams, the Pirates rank higher by about 20 spots based on the opposition’s W/L record but that is a misleading stat because it does not consider who the opposition defeated. A more accurate barometer of where teams rank takes into consideration the opposition’s schedule as well and in that regard, the Pirates strength of schedule when factoring in the opposition’s defense, ranks 284th while DePaul ranks 23rd. That’s a huge difference and it tells us that the Hall has beaten up on some very weak defensive schools while the Blue Demons are much more battle tested. When you factor in the opposition’s offense and combine them with the opposition’s defense, Seton Hall ranks 192nd in the country while DePaul ranks 27th. The Pirates are coming off three straight road games and they’re also coming off a crippling, two-point loss to the Johnnies on Thursday. Seton Hall has dropped four of five and while they figure to get better, it is still a school that is too big a risk spotting significant points.

The Blue Demons have played some decent basketball on the road despite some internal issues and injuries. HC Oliver Purnell is a no-nonsense guy that has suspended players for rule violations and benched players for mental mistakes and it’s going to pay off in the long term. The Blue Demons had a strong second half against Xavier on Monday after falling behind by 18 points at halftime. They rallied to cut it to seven before losing it by 10 points but it was a second half the coach insists the team will build off of and carry over into this game. In a game that has the makings of being tight and contested throughout, we certainly like the points in a game the dog can win outright.