1-31-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lakers-Bobcats on five game Under trend
Andrew Avery

Even though the Los Angeles Lakers have been a great Over bet in recent games (8-1 O/U in their last nine), their Achilles' heel (when it comes to totals at least) appears to be the Charlotte Bobcats.

Yes, the Lakers and Bobcats have played Under in five-straight games heading into Friday night's matchup.

They met back on Dec. 14 with the the teams combining for 173 points - well under the closing total of 198.5.

This game is currently off the board.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolves open as home faves, quickly move to dogs
by Andrew Avery

The Minnesota Timberwolves may have opened as home faves with the Memphis Grizzlies in town Friday, but that didn't last long.

Both Pinnacle and Bet Victor opened this game at Timberwolves -1, but action quickly flooded in on the road team and moved to +1.5 and +1 respectively.

Caesars and the LVH - both of whom opened Wolves -1 - are now currently dealing them at +1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Grizzlies won nine of their last ten games. Minnesota won five of its last six games.
-- Thunder won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread). Brooklyn is 10-2 in its last dozen games.
-- Raptors won four of their last five games.
-- Bobcats are 5-4 in their last nine games.
-- Jazz won three of their last four home games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost 15 of its last 17 games. Bucks lost 21 of their last 24 games (1-6 vs spread last 7 on road).
-- Hawks are 5-7 in their last dozen games. 76ers lost six of last eight, covered one of last four.
-- Kings lost their last five games (1-3-1 vs spread). Dallas lost three of its last four games.
-- Denver lost four of its last six games.
-- Lakers lost last five games (0-3 vs spread in last three).
-- Golden State is 3-5 in its last eight games.

Series records
-- Magic won nine of last eleven games with Milwaukee.
-- 76ers lost three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Minnesota beat Grizzlies 101-93 Dec 15, ending 11-game series skid.
-- Nets won last two games with Thunder, after losing previous seven.
-- Mavericks won 16 of last 18 games with Sacramento.
-- Nuggets won nine of last eleven games with Toronto.
-- Lakers won their last five games against Charlotte.
-- Warriors are 2-0 vs Utah this season: 102-88/98-87.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total; eight of Philly's last ten games stayed under.
-- Last eight Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Brooklyn home games went over.
-- Over is 12-1 in last thirteen Sacramento-Dallas games.
-- Seven of last nine Denver games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Laker games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Utah games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Golden State games.

Back to backs
-- Warriors are 3-5 vs spread if they played the night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Blues/Hurricanes both won four of their last five games.
-- Winnipeg won six of its last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost last four games, allowing 18 goals.
-- Washington lost eight of its last ten games. Red Wings are 3-5 in last eight games.
-- Nashville lost four of last six at home. Devils lost three of their last four road games.
-- Canucks lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Islanders' last six indoor games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten St Louis games.
-- Last three Detroit-Washington games went over.
-- Six of last eight Nashville games went over total.
-- Last three Vancouver games went over the total.

Series records
-- Rangers are 9-4 in last thirteen games with the Islanders.
-- Blues lost three of last four visits to Raleigh.
-- Red Wings lost their last three games with Washington.
-- Devils won three of last four games with Nashville.
-- Canucks won five of last six games with Winnipeg.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Cornell at Brown

The Big Red head to Brown tonight where they are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Bears. Cornell is the pick (+13) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+13). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 817-818: Cleveland State at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 59.266; Detroit 53.018 Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 6 Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-1 1/2)

Game 819-820: Pennsylvania at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 47.623; Dartmouth 51.619 Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 4 Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (-2 1/2)

Game 821-822: Princeton at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 60.313; Harvard 61.280 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 1 Vegas Line: Harvard by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+8 1/2)

Game 823-824: Cornell at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 42.555; Brown 52.537 Dunkel Line: Brown by 10 Vegas Line: Brown by 13 Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+13)

Game 825-826: Columbia at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 50.674; Yale 55.285 Dunkel Line: Yale by 4 1/2 Vegas Line: Yale by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Yale (-2 1/2)

Game 827-828: Youngstown State at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 54.547; Oakland 54.349 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+2 1/2)

Game 829-830: Rider at St. Peter's (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rider 51.774; St. Peter's 50.653 Dunkel Line: Rider by 1 Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 1 Dunkel Pick: Rider (+1)

Game 831-832: Manhattan at Iona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 59.841; Iona 58.958 Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1 Vegas Line: Iona by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+2 1/2)

Game 833-834: Murray State at Austin Peay (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 52.763; Austin Peay 50.780 Dunkel Line: Murray State by 2 Vegas Line: Murray State by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+3 1/2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Brooklyn

The Thunder come into Brooklyn tonight riding a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 31 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Milwaukee at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.585; Orlando 111.117 Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 2 1/2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 5; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+5); Under

Game 803-804: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.667; Philadelphia 111.705 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 217 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

Game 805-806: Memphis at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 124.176; Minnesota 127.032 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1 1/2; 191 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Oklahoma City at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 126.938; Brooklyn 120.810 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 207 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Sacramento at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 117.518; Dallas 120.849 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 206 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 214 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Under

Game 811-812: Toronto at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.746; Denver 118.892 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 2; 204 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1); Over

Game 813-814: Golden State at Utah (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 124.751; Utah 115.868 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 9; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 202 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under

Game 815-816: Charlotte at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.391; LA Lakers 113.874 Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 209 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

St. Louis at Carolina

The Blues head to Carolina tonight to face a Hurricanes team that is coming off a 3-0 loss at Montreal and is 4-13 in its last 17 games following a defeat by 3 or more goals. St. Louis is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 31 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: St. Louis at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.532; Carolina 10.912 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 53-54: NY Islanders at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.120; NY Rangers 11.287 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+155); Over

Game 55-56: Washington at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.003; Detroit 11.563 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over

Game 57-58: New Jersey at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.063; Nashville 10.120 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+110); Under

Game 59-60: Vancouver at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.610; Winnipeg 10.544 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-105); Under

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Thunder at Nets: Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets (+3.5, 198)

It wasn't long ago that the Brooklyn Nets were considered the hottest team in the NBA; now, they have to contend with the new mantle-holder as they prepare to host the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night. Brooklyn opened the month of January with 10 wins in their first 11 games, but hit a roadblock last time out as they dropped a stunning 104-103 decision to Toronto. The Thunder have won nine in a row, with Kevin Durant starring in each one.

The Nets will try to become the first team to hold Durant under 30 points in 3 1/2 weeks. The NBA scoring leader reeled off 33 points in a 112-95 drubbing of the Miami Heat, becoming the first NBA player with 30+ points in 12 straight games since Tracy McGrady more than 10 years earlier. Durant is averaging 38 points over the course of the streak, and has fallen short of the 30-point mark just twice in his previous 18 games overall.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), YES (Brooklyn)

LINE HISTORY: Brooklyn opened as a 3-point home underdog and has jumped to +3.5 with early money on Oklahoma City. The total has come down from 199 to 198.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-14.0) - Nets (-7.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Thunder -4.0

KEY INJURIES: Thunder: Russell Westbrook (Out - knee). Nets: Andrei Kirilenko (Questionable - calf), Marquis Teague (Questionable - personal)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We knew the public would back them here, but not to this extent. We opened 3, now dealing Thunder -4 but I don’t see us going much higher than 4. We did hang what now looks to be a short number on the Thunder at -3, but the Nets are in a great spot in this game. Nets played an emotional game at Boston w/ Garnett and Pierce’s return home, only to lose their next game against the Raptors the very next night. Now they come off that loss, with 3 days of rest completely focused for this game tonight. - Peter Childs, Sportsbook.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Having only lost to Toronto in 2014, I have no choice but to start moving Brooklyn up in spite of their still negative point differential." - Bryan Power.

WHY BET THE THUNDER (37-10 SU, 28-19 ATS, 23-24 O/U): Durant has been typically humble despite finding himself in the hottest stretch of his career - first downplaying his marquee matchup with Miami's LeBron James, then going toe-to-toe with the multi-time MVP, who finished with 34 points in the loss. Durant averages 24.8 points in 11 career games versus the Nets.

WHY BET THE NETS (20-23 SU, 21-22 ATS, 22-19 O/U): Brooklyn opened the month with a 95-93 victory over the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Brooklyn was well on its way to a critical win over Toronto - a victory that would have moved the Nets to within a half-game of the Atlantic Division-leading Raptors. It was the most heartbreaking loss of what has already been a difficult season for the injury plagued Nets - and as point guard Deron Williams said afterward: "And we (had) three days to sit and think about it. And that makes it even worse."

TRENDS:
* Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Brooklyn.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

CONSENSUS PICKS: 80% of bets on Oklahoma City -3.5. 71% of bets on Over 198.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID BANKS

NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Brooklyn Nets
Fresh off possibly the biggest win in the history of the Oklahoma City
Thunder (37-10, 28-19 ATS) since moving from Seattle, they must guard against a
letdown visiting a hot team in the Brooklyn Nets (20-23, 21-22 ATS) at the
Barclays Center Friday at 8:05 ET on ESPN. The Thunder have now won nine
straight games to take over as the top seeds in the West, but no win was bigger
psychologically than the one on the road at Miami on Wednesday. The Nets
meanwhile have won 10 of their last 12 games and would be on a 10-game winning
streak if not for the Toronto Raptors, who handed them both losses including
a 104-103 heartbreaker when Brooklyn last played on Monday.

Even if the Thunder do have a letdown though, it would probably have more
of an effect on their defensive intensity than on their scoring, not
dissimilar to what happened in a look-ahead spot vs. the Atlanta Hawks on Monday
before the Miami game, when they barely got by in a 111-109 squeaker with who
else but Kevin Durant hitting the game winning shot. Oklahoma City has topped
100 points in all nine games during the winning streak, and usually
decidedly so as the Thunder are averaging 109.1 points during the streak. And oh,
in case you have not heard, Durant is now the hottest player on the planet
offensively as he has scored at least 30 points in 12 straight games, topping
40 points in five of those contests. And perhaps one way to avoid a letdown
is to remember that this is a revenge spot after the Nets went into Oklahoma
City and stunned the Thunder outright as 12-point underdogs the first time
these teams met this season.

The Nets are 10-2 since the calendar flipped over to 2014 after sitting at
10-21 before New Year's Day, a streak that began with the win in Oklahoma on
January 2nd and that has also included wins over the Heat and the Warriors,
with they latter win snapping Golden State's 10-game winning streak. It is
unfortunate that the two Brooklyn losses this calendar year have both come
to first place Toronto however, as the Nets remain three games behind the
Raptors while in second place in the Atlantic Division. The Nets have also
picked things up nice offensively, and thus seem primed to score their own fair
share of points if the Thunder defense shows any lethargy, and maybe even if
it doesn't! That is because Brooklyn has topped 100 points five of its last
six games and in seven of its last nine. The Nets may be shooting an
ordinary 45.0 percent from the field for the season, but they have raised that
percentage to 47.2 percent over the last five games.

The 'over' is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings. The 'over' is
also 21-9-2 in the Nets' last 32 games following a straight up loss, 19-9 in
their last 28 home games vs. teams with winning road records and 4-1 in their
last five home games overall.
PICK: OKC THUNDER-3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Friday, January 31

Cleveland State (-9) beat Detroit 73-63 Jan 8, shooting 55% inside arc with only six turnovers (+8). Vikings won six of their last eight games, but lost three of last four visits to Detroit- they're 2-2 on Horizon road, losing at Green Bay/Youngstown. Titans lost five of last seven games, but beat UIC at home Wednesday. Horizon home teams are 5-10 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.

Penn won 17 of last 20 games vs Dartmouth, winning last four here by 2-12-3-10 points; Quakers are 4-11 this year but upset Princeton in their Ivy opener- they're 1-6 on road, with only win at Monmouth way back on Nov. 12. Dartmouth lost its last five games after starting 7-4 against D-I teams; their last three games were vs St John's/Harvard (2)- they've been over their heads- their best win is over #284 Jacksonville State.

Princeton is 11-3 vs D-I teams but got upset at Penn in its Ivy opener; home team won Tigers' last seven games with Harvard-- Tigers lost last three visits here by 12-3-12 points. Princeton is 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 3 at Butler, winning by 2 in OT over Penn State. 15-3 Harvard split its last four games, with a bad loss at FAU; they're 2-2 vs teams in top 100, beating Green Bay by 12, Vermont by 6.

Cornell is 0-15 vs D-I teams; its only win was over a D-III team- they're 13-1 in last 14 games with Brown, winning last 10 visits here, last two by 6-3 points. Only two of Cornell's 15 losses are by less than 8 points. Brown is 8-7 vs D-I teams after splitting pair with Yale last week - all seven of their losses are by single digit margins. Six of Brown's eight wins are by 10+ points.

Yale lost five of last six games, is 0-5 vs top 100 teams, with three of the five losses by 18+ points; Bulldogs won eight of last nine games against Columbia, winning last five here by 8-17-5-8-19 points. Columbia won 8 of last 9 games with only loss by 6 to St John's; Lions only lost by 9 at Michigan State- they're 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200- only one of their six losses was more than nine points.

Youngstown won four of last five games with only loss to Valparaiso by 3, but they're 2-6 on road, with only wins at teams ranked #344/#266. #166 Oakland is 8-14, but played the #8 schedule in country; they're 3-4 in league, 0-4 if they allow 76+ points, 3-0 if they allow less. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-11 vs spread. YSU is shooting 54.6% inside arc in Horizon play, which leads the Horizon.

St Peter's (+7.5) made 31-35 from line, had only six turnovers in 77-69 win at Rider Jan 16, just its 4th win in last 17 series games, but they've lost three games in row since, by 7-17-8 points. Rider won six of its last seven visits here; they're 3-4 in last seven games, 3-3 on MAAC road, losing last road game by 16 at Manhattan. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in MAAC games where spread was less than 3 points.

Iona won five of its last six games, with only loss by hoop to Canisius, when Gaels rallied from 20-point deficit to lead in second half. Iona won five of last seven games with Manhattan, but teams split last four games played here, where Gaels are 5-1 in MAAC play, with all five wins by 9+ points. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-5 vs spread. Manhattan is 14-5 but lost two of its last three games.

Murray State (-7) beat Austin Peay 89-67 at home Jan 11, outscoring Governors 21-7 on foul line; Racers won last six series games, winning last four played here, by 16-9-12-3 points. Murray is 7-1 in OVC, 2-1 on road, winning by 4-13 points, losing at Edwardsville. Austin Peay is 1-4 in its last five games; only five of its 21 games (2-3) were vs teams ranked in the top 200.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB PRINCETON at HARVARD
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PRINCETON) a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more
113-61 since 1997. ( 64.9% 45.9 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.3 units )

CBB MANHATTAN at IONA
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MANHATTAN) off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
79-39 since 1997. ( 66.9% 35.0 units )

CBB COLUMBIA at YALE
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (YALE) poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse
65-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns NHL

Main Play: Nashville Predators ML

Free Play: St. Louis Blues/Carolina Hurricanes u5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule

Nets/Thunder Over 196.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PointWise JAN 31 - FEB 6, 2014

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES (5-5 LW)
MIAMI-OHIO over No Illinois (Tues) RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Baylor (Sat) RATING: 1
PENN STATE over Purdue (Sun) RATING: 2
HAWAII over Cal-Northridge (Sat) RATING: 2
WICHITA STATE over Indiana St (Wed) RATING: 3
LA-MONROE over Texas State (Thurs) RATING: 3
WM & MARY over Js Madison (Sun) RATING: 4
BOWLING GREEN over Toledo (Wed) RATING: 4
VILLANOVA over Temple (Sat) RATING: 5
NOTRE DAME over Syracuse (Mon) RATING: 5

NCAA BEST BETS Friday Night: COLUMBIA

NCAA BEST BETS Saturday: AKRON, TOLEDO, OKLAHOMA ST, MINNESOTA, NO IOWA,
VILLANOVA, VANDERBILT, PEPPERDINE, AIR FORCE, INDIANA STATE,
OREGON, LOUISVILLE, BYU, HAWAII

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
NCAA BEST BETS: PENN STATE, WILLIAM & MARY

PW NBA FRIDAY, JANUARY 31 (11-6 LW, they did well)
BEST BETS: ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, DENVER (3)

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1
BEST BETS: INDIANA (3), WASHINGTON, NW ORLEANS, CLIPPERS (2)

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
BEST BET: BOSTON (4)

SUPER BOWL PROPHECY
DENVER 27 - Seattle 22 RATING: 5