2-2-14

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Sean Higgs

5* Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks +3.0/-115

5* Best Bet
Under 47 / -105

Analysis: Taking SEATTLE and the UNDER here. I'll be honest. Many of you had my plays in the Championship round and know that I had Denver and SF to play here at MetLife. Now, I will take that SF loss and roll the dice here on Seattle. Not because I thought SF was playing the best overall football and then since Seattle won, they are the best team. This is based on what I have seen of Denver. And the simple fact is this. When they have had to play physical, bruising teams that like to run, they have either come on with a loss, or on the short side of covering the number. We will start with Indy. They lost on the road to a team that was off to a very good start and had a nice season. Indy somehow managed over 100 yards on the ground with a patch-work run game. After their bye week, a couple tough division games vs SD and KC. They lost at NE when they should have won. Again they face SD and KC, losing at home to the Chargers. In the playoffs they faced SD and NE again and came out on top. But I am not impressed. The Broncos defense is playing very well. I am not going to take that away from them in the least bit. My problem lies with will they be able to contain bruising RB Lynch. I don't think so. This game is going to be won by the Seattle defense vs the Denver WRs. They have the size and strength to slow down this attack. I am not high on Wilson. I have said that before. Seattle is playing with house money. No pressure. All the pressure is on Manning. Seattle can swing here and miss. Denver can't miss at all. They take a shot and turn the ball over and turns into points, I can see them tightening up. This Seattle defense is very good. As great as Manning is, this defense is chomping at the bit to show just how great they are. Total wise, I really like the Under. Forget about the weather. Did you see the Lions and Eagles put up 54 in a near blizzard? I know Lynch won't have a problem in that, nor would I bet against Moreno. But I think these defenses are much better than Det/Phi. That being said, I don't see any wetness playing into the equation. It will be cold, and the QBs will be uncomfortable. The defenses love this kind of weather. We are going 2-0 today. If I don't cash the UNDER and SEATTLE, you can get the rest of February absolutely free by emailing me at seanhiggs2013@g mail 5* BEST BET PARLAY -- SEATTLE and UNDER

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Inside Angles - Superbowl Props

Team to have more first downs in the game - Seattle +2½ (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes. We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses. That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.

First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135): No matter how experienced you are, there are always some nerves early in the Super Bowl that can lead to some sloppy play until the teams settle down. Also, as mentioned, the Broncos may not have as easy a time finding the end zone early on vs. the best defense they have seen all year, and they may settle for a field goal the first time they are faced with a fourth down decision just to get some points on the board. And if the Seahawks are the first team to score, it is even more likely to be a field goal as Wilson is more apt to throw the ball away in the red zone if nothing is open. Both teams have solid kickers in Matt Prater of the Broncos and Steven Hauschka.

Will there be one scoreless quarter - Yes (+240): This play, besides the great odds being offered, is based more on Seattle being able to do what it wants. We think that the Seahawks will be successful in slowing down Manning, who again has not faced a defense nearly as good as Seattle's all season, and his targets for at least one full quarter and we also trust the Seattle offense to take time off the clock. Of course, this prop would also require the Seahawks to bog down around midfield before getting into field goal range, but our feeling here is that the +240 odds make this risk worthwhile.

Montee Ball pass receptions - 'under' 1½ (+120): Ball had a total of 20 receptions in 16 regular season games, and after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, the only reason he caught three passes in the AFC Championship Game was because the Broncos had a big enough lead on the Patriots that they took the opportunity to give Knowshon Moreno and his ailing ribs that have bothered him since he rushed for 224 yards at New England back in Week 12 some rest. We do not anticipate a blowout here and remember that Ball is still a fumble prone rookie, so do expect to see him on the field as much here with Moreno having had two full weeks off to recover since playing basically one half last game.

Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league's best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, "Good defense stops good offense", so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.

Super Bowl XLVIII MVP - Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.

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root
seattle

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Themachinespicks super bowl

Broncos ML

1st Half Under 24


Julius Thomas Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

Seattle more penalties than Denver


Marshawn Lynch Under 91.5 Rushing Yards


Marshawn Lynch Under 15.5 Receiving Yards


Monte Ball Under 10.5 Receiving Yards


S. Hauschka Over 1.5 Field Goals

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Football Jesus podcast: Seahawks

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SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +108 over Denver

Roughly about six weeks ago, books were putting out a Super Bowl line that featured the NFC versus the AFC, regardless of the matchup. This wasn’t a random number either, as the oddsmakers had to consider every possible Super Bowl matchup and what they came up with was the NFC as a 2½-point choice regardless of the matchup. Surely at that point, a Seattle/Denver Super Bowl was a distinct possibility that certainly was considered when they posted that advanced line. Now, we can break down this game like anyone else but that would just be redundant, as we all know it’ll come down to Seattle’s defense versus Denver’s offense. That said, we’re always looking to play the side that offers up the most value and when you consider that just a few weeks ago, the NFC was a 2½-point favorite over the AFC, our choice isn’t a difficult one.

The betting market loves offense and they love Peyton Manning. Make no mistake, this is Manning's Super Bowl as far as the media is concerned. He will embody the success or failure by the Broncos. He's the default MVP unless someone else does something really notable. He deserves it too, as watching Manning run an offense, especially when you have money on him, is one of the most enjoyable and compelling spectacles in sports. No QB in the history of the NFL has ever had as much presence, knowledge or ability to instantly recognize what the defense is bringing as Peyton Manning. He is the master of the quick read and perhaps the toughest quarterback to confuse in the NFL. However, this is also going to be the coldest Super Bowl ever and that has to favor the Seahawks. It’ll favor the Seahawks even more if there are gusty winds.

Let’s not forget that the Broncos defense is pure garbage. Week after week, they were torched but their league-leading offense masked their deficiencies. The Broncos surrendered 51 points to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to K.C., 28 to Tennessee and 34 to New England. That’s just five games and the Seahawks didn’t give up that many points combined in their final 13 games of the year including playoffs.

When we look at the schedules of these teams throughout the year, what we see is a Broncos team that had it rather easy. Their best win was against New England in the AFC Championship? Kansas City? Truthfully, the Broncos played weakling after weakling that included games against Oakland (twice) Baltimore, the Giants, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Of course Manning is going to put up big numbers against that group. The Broncos toughest games this year were against Dallas, Indy, New England and Kansas City. They lost to the Patriots in the regular season, they lost to Indy and needed a minor miracle to defeat the 'Boys. Denver also defeated K.C both times, by 10 and 7 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played San Fran three times, New Orleans twice and Carolina once. They went 4-1 in those games with only loss occurring in San Fran by two points.

Seattle is the 16th team to appear in the Super Bowl as the squad that allowed the fewest points during the regular season. The previous 15 that accomplished the same feat are 12-3 in the championship game. Peyton Manning led the NFL in passing. A regular season passing leader has NEVER won a Super Bowl and only four have been in the SB. They all lost, Dan Marino in 1984, Kurt Warner in 2001, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2007. You can add Peyton Manning in 2013 to that group. The better team taking a tag is the right way to play this one.

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Bob Balfe

Super Bowl Pick & Top 10 Prop Bets

February 2nd 2014

My Super Bowl Pick is Seattle +2 over the Broncos.

Here are my top 10 prop bets. Don't go nuts on playing too many props.

Total Interceptions - Peyton Manning (DEN)
Over 1/2 -145

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - How many times will "12th man" be said during the game?
OVer 2 -130

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance
NO +170

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game?
Yes +130

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Denver -150

SUPER BOWL XLVIII - Coin Toss
Tails -105

(SEA @ DEN) - Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over 44.5 -115

(SEA @ DEN) - Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?
NO -500

(SEA @ DEN) - Will there be a missed extra point after touchdown
YES +800

(SEA @ DEN) - Total Number of Penalties Assessed on the Denver Broncos
OVER 5.5 -115

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Sharps like Seahawks, Wilson in prop bets
by Andrew Avery

According to an oddsmaker from betdsi, sharp bettors have weighed in on Super Bowl prop bets.

"Sharp action is backing several Super Bowl props with a lot of them favoring the Seahawks and Russell Wilson," the oddsmaker said. "The prop betting trends are demonstrating a more negative bias for Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno. In one bright spot for the Broncos, Wes Welker is seeing some love from sharp money."

Here is a look at some prop bets which sharp bettors have backed:

Seattle Props:

Russell Wilson - Over 26.5 pass attempts
Russell Wilson - Over 30.5 rushing yards
Seattle - Over 1.5 field goals
Seattle to score the shortest touchdown of the game.

Broncos Props:

Peyton manning - Under 27.5 completions
Moreno - Under 15.5 rushing attempts
Moreno - Under 60.5 rushing yards
Moreno to not score a touchdown
Welker -11.5 receiving yards vs Baldwin
Welker +11.5 receiving yards vs Decker

Game Props:

Total Sacks Under 4.5

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World Wide Sharps
5* Denver/Seattle - Under 48

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Joe Gavazzi

Seattle +2

Seattle / Denver Under 48.5

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EM Sports SB pick

Seattle

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Prediction Machine
Props

Russell Wilson	Pass Yds	199.5	221.8	OVER (57.2%)
Russell Wilson	Comp.	17.5	16.5	UNDER (52.3%)
Russell Wilson	Att.	26.5	27.5	OVER (52.4%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	1.5 (+135/-165)	1.4	OVER (45.9%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	0 (+275)	1.4	0, (23.7%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	1 (+150)	1.4	1, (34.2%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	2 (+225)	1.4	2, (24.8%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	3 (+600)	1.4	3, (12.1%)
Russell Wilson	TDs Thrown	4+ (+1500)	1.4	4+, (5.2%)
Russell Wilson	INT	0.5 (-150/+120)	0.6	UNDER (47.2%)
Russell Wilson	Rushes	6.5 (EV/-130)	5.7	UNDER (64.1%)
Russell Wilson	Rush Yards	30.5	27.8	UNDER (53.6%)
Russell Wilson	Rushing TD	Yes (+250)/No (-325)	0.1	NO, 78.3%

Denver Quarterback

Peyton Manning	Pass Yds	290.5	241.3	UNDER (63.9%)
Peyton Manning	Comp.	26.5	22.7	UNDER (60.1%)
Peyton Manning	Att.	38.5	36.4	UNDER (53.4%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	2.5	1.9	UNDER (63.6%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	0 (+1000)	1.9	0, (9.1%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	1 (+350)	1.9	1, (28.7%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	2 (+200)	1.9	2, (26.1%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	3 (+250)	1.9	3, (18.0%)
Peyton Manning	TDs Thrown	4+ (+350)	1.9	4+, (18.1%)
Peyton Manning	INT	0.5 (-180/+150)	1.1	OVER (66.7%)

Seattle Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch	Rush Yds	87.5	83.6	UNDER (51.2%)
Marshawn Lynch	Rushes	21.5	22.9	OVER (52.5%)
Marshawn Lynch	Rec Yds	15.5	18.6	OVER (54.7%)
Marshawn Lynch	Recs	2 (110/-140)	2.1	OVER (37.3%)
Marshawn Lynch	TDs	0.5 (-165/+135)	1.0	OVER (60.6%)
Robert Turbin	Rush Yds	10.5	6.2	UNDER (61.5%)

Denver Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno	Rush Yds	65.5	63.9	UNDER (53.5%)
Knowshon Moreno	Rushes	15.5 (-110/-110)	15.1	OVER (50.5%)
Knowshon Moreno	Rec Yds	25.5	14.4	UNDER (64.3%)
Knowshon Moreno	Recs	3	1.7	UNDER (58.6%)
Knowshon Moreno	TDs	0.5 (-130/EV)	0.5	UNDER (55.3%)
Montee Ball	Rush Yds	32.5 (-110/-110)	37.8	OVER (59.3%)
Montee Ball	Rushes	8.5	8.7	OVER (51.2%)
Montee Ball	TDs	0.5 (+250/-325)	0.3	UNDER (75.8%)

Seattle Receivers/Tight Ends

Golden Tate	Rec Yds	45.5	51.1	OVER (53.6%)
Golden Tate	Recs	4 (EV/-130)	3.4	OVER (44.8%)
Golden Tate	TDs	0.5 (+175/-215)	0.3	UNDER (67.7%)
Doug Baldwin	Rec Yds	40.5	48.7	OVER (59.9%)
Doug Baldwin	Recs	3.5 (EV/-130)	3.1	UNDER (60.6%)
Doug Baldwin	TDs	0.5 (+215/-275)	0.3	OVER (29.5%)
Percy Harvin	Rec Yds	40.5	36.9	UNDER (55.0%)
Percy Harvin	Recs	4	2.9	UNDER (55.5%)
Percy Harvin	TDs	0.5 (+160/-200)	0.2	UNDER (68.3%)

Denver Receivers/Tight Ends

Demaryius Thomas	Rec Yds	75.5	62.9	UNDER (62.9%)
Demaryius Thomas	Recs	5 (-130/EV)	4.7	UNDER (51.2%)
Demaryius Thomas	TDs	0.5 (-130/EV)	0.5	UNDER (53.6%)
Wes Welker	Rec Yds	57.5	42.8	UNDER (59.4%)
Wes Welker	Recs	5.5	4.8	UNDER (52.0%)
Wes Welker	TDs	0.5 (-130/EV)	0.5	UNDER (54.2%)
Eric Decker	Rec Yds	57.5	52	UNDER (54.5%)
Eric Decker	Recs	4.5 (EV/-130)	4.0	OVER (49.7%)
Eric Decker	TDs	0.5 (+135/-165)	0.4	OVER (38.5%)
Julius Thomas	Rec Yds	55.5	47.9	UNDER (56.9%)
Julius Thomas	Recs	5 (EV/-130)	4.6	OVER (48.5%)
Julius Thomas	TDs	0.5 (-130/EV)	0.4	UNDER (59.8%)

Kickers

Steven Hauschka	Points	9	8.8	UNDER (51.4%)
Matt Prater	Points	9	5.9	UNDER (66.4%)

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RxPops69
Seattle +2.5

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Allen Eastman
Super Bowl


SEA/DEN u48
SEA/DEN 1H u23.5
DEN 1H -0.5

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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Wes Welker (Denver) (+950)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 4.75 units)

0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Luke Wilson (Seahawks) (+5000)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 25.00 units)

For these last two prop bets I've put half a unit on each - Wes Welker and Luke Wilson to score the game's first Touchdown. Wes Welker has been targeted 14 times in two playoff games by Manning and has caught 10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. During the regular season he was targeted 110 times with 73 catches and 10 touchdowns. I like the match up for Welker in the red zone and I will take him at +950. The second is a long shot pick on Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. During the regular season this 5th round Canadian draft pick had 20 catches on 28 targets for 272 yards and a touchdown (average of 13.6 yards per catch). Seahawks coach had this to say about Wilson: "Luke has tremendous talent, he has speed and strength and catching ability and range and all of that". Wilson was targeted once against the 49ers, although it isn't recorded as an official target as a 15 yard penalty was called against the defender. Wilson's TD this year was a 39 yard TD catch, but I could also see them using him in the red zone. Of course at 50/1 it is a long shot, but I will put half a unit on the big athletic TE.