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Dr. Bob
***Clemson (+13) over SYRACUSE
03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 841
Teams that reach this point of the season undefeated tend to play a little tight and often play more cautious against teams that they are likely to beat without their best effort. The Orange are coming off a lackluster 6 point win over Notre Dame as an 11 ½ point favorite and they 37-84-3 ATS situation that applied to them in that game applies to Syracuse again today. Also, undefeated teams from game 20 on are just 9-29-1 ATS at home, including 3-19 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of .575 or higher, as is the case here. Clemson is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers play at a very slow pace, as do the Orange, so I don’t expect a lot of possessions in this game. The fewer possessions in a game the tougher it is for a big favorite to cover and my ratings, which take pace into account, only favor Syracuse by 12 points. Good defensive teams also tend to be good as big underdogs and Clemson applies to a 121-36-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense. I’ll take Clemson in a 3-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +12 points.
***Manhattan (-7) over NIAGARA
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 857
Niagara beat me a couple of nights ago but the Purple Aces apply to a 6-35-4 ATS subset of a 48-128-9 ATS home underdog situation while Manhattan applies to a 172-89-5 ATS road favorite situation. The road favorite is 19-3 ATS when those situations intersect and my ratings favor Manhattan by 8 ½ points. The Jaspers are a bit underrated because they played poorly in the 4 games that star George Beamon missed. I’ll take Manhattan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 points.
Opinion - ST. JOHN’S (+2 ½) over Creighton
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 848
St. John’s played well in a 60-63 loss at Creighton a couple of weeks ago, covering easily despite making on 1 of 10 3-point shots. The Red Storm are in a good spot to get their revenge, as they qualify in a 127-65-6 ATS home revenge situation as well as a 90-39-3 ATS home momentum situation that is 47-11 ATS when applying to home underdogs. I’m passing on the game because my ratings favor Creighton by 4 points and I don’t want to give up the line value but the situations are good enough for me to still lean with St. John’s plus the points.
***Clemson (+13) over SYRACUSE
03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 841
Teams that reach this point of the season undefeated tend to play a little tight and often play more cautious against teams that they are likely to beat without their best effort. The Orange are coming off a lackluster 6 point win over Notre Dame as an 11 ½ point favorite and they 37-84-3 ATS situation that applied to them in that game applies to Syracuse again today. Also, undefeated teams from game 20 on are just 9-29-1 ATS at home, including 3-19 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of .575 or higher, as is the case here. Clemson is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers play at a very slow pace, as do the Orange, so I don’t expect a lot of possessions in this game. The fewer possessions in a game the tougher it is for a big favorite to cover and my ratings, which take pace into account, only favor Syracuse by 12 points. Good defensive teams also tend to be good as big underdogs and Clemson applies to a 121-36-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense. I’ll take Clemson in a 3-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +12 points.
***Manhattan (-7) over NIAGARA
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 857
Niagara beat me a couple of nights ago but the Purple Aces apply to a 6-35-4 ATS subset of a 48-128-9 ATS home underdog situation while Manhattan applies to a 172-89-5 ATS road favorite situation. The road favorite is 19-3 ATS when those situations intersect and my ratings favor Manhattan by 8 ½ points. The Jaspers are a bit underrated because they played poorly in the 4 games that star George Beamon missed. I’ll take Manhattan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 points.
Opinion - ST. JOHN’S (+2 ½) over Creighton
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 848
St. John’s played well in a 60-63 loss at Creighton a couple of weeks ago, covering easily despite making on 1 of 10 3-point shots. The Red Storm are in a good spot to get their revenge, as they qualify in a 127-65-6 ATS home revenge situation as well as a 90-39-3 ATS home momentum situation that is 47-11 ATS when applying to home underdogs. I’m passing on the game because my ratings favor Creighton by 4 points and I don’t want to give up the line value but the situations are good enough for me to still lean with St. John’s plus the points.
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