11-29-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Bill Bravenec

Saturday, November 29

Nevada - 4 1/2 at Louisiana Tech

Nevada averages 511 yards (#6) and 38.1 points (#13) per game on offense and has the nation’s #1 rushing offense that averages 308 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. Lousiana Tech’s defense has been pretty good against the run, but they are terrible against the pass and have not seen a high-powered balanced offense like Nevada’s since they gave up 38 points to Boise State. Nevada’s defense is also terrible against the pass, but Louisiana Tech has a one-dimensional offense that is ranked #25 in rushing but only #107 in passing. To keep up with Nevada, Louisiana Tech will have to pass since Nevada can stop the run. Nevada has the nation’s #2 rushing defense, allowing only 65 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. I don’t expect Louisiana Tech to be able to keep up. Nevada has played 3 teams currently in the BCS top 25, losing at home 35-19 to #7 Texas Tech and 41-34 to #9 Boise State and losing on the road 69-17 to #12 Missouri (this schedule is part of the reason Nevada’s passing defense looks so bad). Louisiana Tech has played one team currently ranked in the BCS top 25, losing 38-3 at Boise State.

Southern Mississippi - 13 1/2 at SMU

Southern Mississippi averages 442 yards (#19) and 30.9 points per game and should be able to move the ball and score at will on SMU’s porous defense, which allows 491 yards (#119) and 39.1 points (#117) per game. There is also a rushing mismatch, as Southern Miss rushes for 201 yards per game (#21) and 4.9 yards per carry and will be facing an SMU defense that allows 233 rushing yards per game (#118) and 5.0 yards per carry. SMU has a one-dimensional offense that is ranked last in the nation in rushing with an average of only 45 yards rushing per game. SMU had a decent passing game until before their last game against UTEP, when their top 2 receivers (Emmanual Sanders and Aldrick Robinson) were suspended. These 2 receivers had accounted for 2,005 out of 2,885 passing yards (70%) and 20 out of 27 passing TDs (74%) before the UTEP game. But without them, SMU only managed to put up 201 total yards (137 passing) and 10 points against UTEP’s #116 defense in a 38-10 loss, and I think Southern Miss has a much better defense than UTEP. At the end of October, Southern Miss had lost 5 in a row to drop their overall record to 2-6 and their conference record to 0-4. Since then, Southern Miss has turned their season around and gone 3-0, including a 70-14 blowout of UAB and an impressive 21-3 win over East Carolina. During the 3 game win streak, Southern Miss has outscored their opponents by an average of 36-8 and outgained them by an average of 444-229.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Coach Ron Meyer

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Locker Room GOY Kentucky Cfb

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Kelso's Saturday 100 unit play

Saturday, November 29, 2008
Big 12 Rivalry Game Of The Year

100 Units Oklahoma (-7½) over Oklahoma State

8:00 PM -- Boone Pickens Stadium
Oklahoma by 17-21
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA Football:

1* Oklahoma State +250 (Good value on a good team at home)
1* Georgia Tech + 255
1* Oregon +125
2* Baylor/Texas Tech over 69
2* NV/La Tech over 61
2* Georgia Tech +8
2* Florida/FSU under 55
2* Hawaii -28
3* Houston/Rice over 78
3* Oregon +3
4* Memphis -14
4* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State over 75

NHL:

1* Bruins +105
1* Coyotes +140

NBA/NCAA Basketball:

2* Grizzlies -8
2* Clippers -1
2* Cavaliers -7
2* OKC/Memphis under 194

2* New Mexico -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Matt Faaargo

Game: Miami Florida Hurricanes at NC State Wolfpack
Pick: NC State Wolfpack +1.5 -110

Reason: NC State has once again emerged as a possible bowl contender. With three straight wins, the Wolfpack are 5-6 and are one victory away from becoming bowl eligible. They are coming off a huge road win at rival North Carolina and pieces from last season will pay a big role in this game. NC State went to Miami last season and defeated the Hurricanes in overtime. That was the third of four straight wins for the Wolfpack who started the season 1-5 and were in a similar position they are now.

They were 5-5 and with two games left, all they needed was one win to make it to a bowl game after missing out in 2006. NC State was hammered at Wake Forest but still had a shot with a home game against Maryland. The Wolfpack were obliterated at home by the Terrapins 37-0 and were without a postseason spot for a second straight year. With this being the same scenario as last season, look for NC State to look back at that lesson learned and come out strong on Saturday.

Watching Miami on Thursday showed that it recent five-game winning streak may have been a fluke. I thought the Hurricanes would have come in with more energy riding a big streak but they were smacked in the face early and often and were crushed by the Yellow Jackets. Looking back at the run shows only one big win at Duke with the other four victories coming by a touchdown or less. The hurricanes are young and it certainly showed and coming back off that defeat will be even tougher.

At the start of the season, redshirt freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was fourth on the depth chart and it looked as though playing time would be sparse. However, he has come along quickly as is turning into one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. He has passed for 14 touchdowns while only tossing one interception. He has thrown five touchdown passes in each of his last five games and is coming off his best performance of the season where he threw for a season high 279 yards.

The Wolfpack have not been a strong rushing team but they have come on of late, culminating with a season high 187 yards against the Tar Heels. After averaging 80 ypg through their first six games, they have put up an average of 161.4 ypg over their last five games. Miami went into the Georgia Tech game with the 19th ranked rushing defense. It came out ranked 57th after allowing an unheard of 486 yards rushing. Don’t expect those kinds of numbers from NC State but the balance will keep Miami on its heels. 3* NC State Wolfpack.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

kelsos club

25 UnitsNevada (-5) over Louisiana Tech
2:30 PM -- Joe Aillet Stadium


4 UnitsFlorida State (+16½) over Florida
3:30 PM -- Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium

Florida by 7-10
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.

5 UnitsAuburn (+14½) over Alabama
3:30 PM -- Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama by 9-10
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.

3 UnitsUSC (-31½) over Notre Dame
8:00 PM -- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
USC by 35-42

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

DOC

5 Unit Play. #79 Take Auburn Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The Tide have not been in action for a while and have heard for the last six years that they cannot beat Auburn. Auburn is having a terrible year losing five of their last six but only won loss came via a blowout. This game is the season for Auburn and can salvage what has been a terrible season and may cost Coach Tuberville his job. Bama does not have the same focus, as a game next week against Florida is also on their minds along with being No. 1 in the country. Bama has not been a solid play this season as a big favorite and that trend will continue. An interesting stat in this match-up is that Coach Tuberville is 14-3 straight-up and ATS when playing an undefeated conference foe. Bama wins but it is in a battle. Bama 24, Auburn 17.




DOC

4 Unit Play. #71 Take South Carolina Gamecocks over Clemson Tigers (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN 2) This rivalry has lost its luster as both teams are going through disappointing seasons. Would have been reluctant to use SC after being crushed by Florida, but they had a week off to put that behind them. The Tigers beat Virginia last week in Charlottesville; however, the Cavs outgained them but the Tigers took advantage of four turnovers. The big problem all season for Clemson has been its offense, as their strong running attack has gone south. The last three games have been tight in this match-up; however, I firmly believe South Carolina is more talented and has a better coach. The Gamecocks get their revenge as we collect in the process as well. USC 24, Clemson 17



DOC

4 Unit Play. #73 Take Oklahoma Sooners over Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday 8:00 pm ESPN) It is not always smart laying points on the road especially in a big rivalry game; however, I feel strong that the Cowboys will not be able to match the scoring machine of the Sooners. The Sooners are on a mission after the bowl loss last season and the offense is loaded with talent around QB Bradford. No question that the Cowboys program has advanced but still not up to the OU caliber yet. Oklahoma needs an impressive victory to sway voters and they pull away early in this match-up and never look back. OU 48, OK St 24.




DOC

4 Unit Play. #65 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 12:00 pm CBS) Yellow Jackets have played better then anyone could of guessed under Coach Paul Johnson and would be 9-2 had they not given the game away late against North Carolina. They already have road wins in Boston and Death Valley and they have the talent to match up with the Bulldogs in this battle. As for Georgia, certainly cannot knock their success but their problems lie on the defense. Tech will have success running the football and Coach Johnson is 13-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003. Like the Jackets chances here and the points make it even more attractive. Call the upset. Ga Tech 27, Georgia 23.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Louisiana Tech - AiS shows an 82% probability La-Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Two forces oppose one another in this game. Nevada knows how to stop the run and La-tech knows how to run the ball. Nevada does not have a good secondary at all and many teams simply designed their attack to go after that weakness. Also, there were many games Nevada forced the opposition to abandon the run simply because Nevada had achieved a big lead. The same can be said of La-tech games. They know how to defend the run, but they don't have as weak a secondary as Nevada. Based on my research, I just don't see how Nevada will contain the rushing attack and this running game will set-up strong play action passing opportunities in the second half. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 38-40 for just 49%, but has made 51 units in profits since 1992. Play against road favorites versus the money line that are off a home loss against opponent off a road win. The average play has been a dog of +238. Again, this is like playing Black Jack and being paid $2.38 for every winning $1.00 hand played with the game odds still set at roughly 50%. That will NEVER happen at the casino, but now you have a system that requires a little work, but you will be rewarded well for that work. Take La-Tech and look for the SU win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Georgia Bulldogs - Saturday November 29, 2008 12:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +8 (-110) (Normal)

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College FootballGame: Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide - Saturday November 29, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-110) (Normal)


Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles - Saturday November 29, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Florida State Seminoles +16.5 (-110) (Normal)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

NSA

20* Alabama -14.5
10* Georgia Tech +7.5
10* USC -31.5
10* Kansas @ Missouri 10* OVER 69
10* Florida @ Florida St 3:30 PM EST 10* OVER 55
NBA 10* Denver -4
CBB 10* Massachusetts +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Special K

Saturday College Football 20* Super K-bomb:
379 20* Super K-bomb - South Carolina Gamecocks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Jeff Benton,

Saturday's winners ...
20 Dime: GEORGIA TECH (plus the points vs. Georgia)



10 Dime: SOUTH CAROLINA (vs. Clemson)



10 Dime: MISSOURI (minus the points vs. Kansas)





Georgia Tech



Ten days ago, Georgia Tech gashed one of the best defenses in the nation (Miami, Fla.) for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 rout. Today, the Yellow Jackets face a Georgia defense that has given up 167.4 rushing yards (not to mention nearly 24 points) in its last five games, including 33.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards in its last three … and Georgia Tech is catching well over a touchdown? Against its biggest in-state rival? This makes no sense to me at all!



It makes even less sense when you consider that Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the season, with only one of its defeats (28-7 at North Carolina) coming by more than a touchdown. Granted, the ACC is down this year compared with the SEC, but with the way the Yellow Jackets run the football (270 rush yards per game) and play defense (16.7 points, 296.7 total yards per game allowed), there’s no doubt in my mind they can cover this pointspread … if not win outright.



Georgia, which barely beat lowly Auburn in its last game two weeks ago (17-13 as a nine-point road favorite), has been dreadful against the spread, going 3-7-1 ATS on the season and 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including three straight non-covers at home. Also, the Bulldogs’ last two wins were each four-point victories.



The road team is 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 years in this rivalry, and the one push came in the Yellow Jackets’ last trip to Georgia when they blew a 12-0 first-half lead and lost 15-12 as a three-point underdog.



Throw in the fact that first-year Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson is 13-3 ATS in his last 16 games as an underdog going back to 2003 and his days at Navy, and I’ll gladly take the generous points with confidence!





South Carolina



Think the Ol’ Ball Coach and his Gamecocks are still fuming over that debacle at Florida two weeks ago? Think they’d like to take some frustrations out on archrival Clemson, which has struggled to score points pretty much all season and which knocked South Carolina out of a bowl last year? The answers to those questions are “yes” and “yes”!



After holding its first 10 opponents to 24 points or less and an average of just 15.6 points per game, South Carolina became the latest defense to get run over by the Gators in an ugly 56-6 loss. This week, though, the Gamecocks’ solid defense catches a break, as Clemson has scored 17 points or fewer in four of its last seven games – and that’s in the weak ACC. Last week against Virginia, the Tigers managed just 13 points, and they also scored just 17 against both Maryland and Georgia Tech and only seven against Wake Forest. And if you discount a 27-point effort at Florida State (Clemson got a garbage touchdown late), the only Division I-A teams the Tigers put points up against was Duke (31), North Carolina State (27) and Boston College (27).



True, Clemson’s defense (21 points or less allowed in nine of 11 games) has made up for the offense’s deficiencies. However, prior to the Florida disaster, Steve Spurrier’s offense had been clicking in putting up 23 points or more in six of its previous seven games (all six were victories). Also, the Tigers have just four wins against Division I competition, but two of those opponents (N.C. State and Duke) aren’t exactly powerhouses. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 7-4 on the season with three of the losses – including a 14-7 defeat to Georgia – were by exactly seven points, meaning South Carolina has been in every game this year except for the last one.



Finally, as if they needed added motivation against a hated rival, the Gamecocks have some. Last year, Clemson kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to steal a 23-21 win on South Carolina’s home field to knock the ‘Cocks out of a bowl. Well, today, it’s the Tigers who need a win to go bowling, and you know South Carolina would love nothing more than to return the favor. They’ll do it as the road team wins for the fourth straight year in this rivalry.





Missouri



You could argue that there’s no motivation for Missouri to cover this massive spread, seeing as the Tigers have already clinched the Big 12 North title and a berth in next week’s much-anticipated conference championship game. Except for the fact that they’re playing their biggest rival in Kansas. For that reason alone, there’s little doubt that given the opportunity to pour it on, Missouri will do just that.



Well, considering the poor state of Kansas’ defense, I see no reason why the Tigers won’t find the end zone early and often. The Jayhawks, who have lost four of their last five games, have given up 33 points or more six times in their last nine contests. And against the four prolific offenses that Kansas has faced – Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech and Oklahoma – it has given up a total of 178 points, or 44.5 points per contest! Obviously, with Chase Daniel running the show, Missouri’s offense definitely falls under the “prolific” category. The Tigers are averaging 45.7 points and 512.3 total yards, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in all but one game this year.



Additionally, during its current four-game winning streak, Missouri has outscored its opponents 182-72, or an average margin of victory of 28 points per game, and the Tigers have outgained those four opponents by a total of 532 yards!



Yes, Kansas can score points, too, but against the three best teams they’ve faced this year (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma), the Jayhawks averaged just 19.7 points. And Missouri’s defense comes into this one having allowed an average of 18 ppg during its four-game winning streak and the Tigers have held six of their last 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Missouri has won and covered the last two meetings against Kansas, and with this game being played on a neutral field in Kansas City, it’s interesting to note that the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from home. Lay the big price, as Missouri rolls by at least three TDs.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Fairway Jay

20* Oklahoma St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Iron Horse Rivalry 10* GOY is on the Florida Gators

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-29-08

Youngstown Connection
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
High Noon
#379 South Carolina +1 Noon EST