3-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ten Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 2

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines

Illinois' Tracy Abrams, who scored 22 points over his previous four contests, went 8-of-16 from the field and 7-of-9 from the foul line en route to a season-high 25-point performance on Thursday – the most points the junior has ever scored against a Big Ten opponent. The scoring explosion was particularly unexpected after he made only five free throws and scored a total of 22 points over the previous four games on 23.3 percent shooting. The Illini have generated at least eight steals in each of their last five victories after doing so only four times over their first 26 games.

Michigan was supposed to unravel when Mitch McGary was lost to a back injury, but it proved to be the turning point of the season instead. The top-seeded Wolverines, who eye their sixth straight win on Friday in the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis when they meet Illinois, sported a 6-4 record when their rugged forward was ruled out indefinitely. The Wolverines rallied to win 17 of their final 20 games, including 15 in league play – the most by the school since 1993.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Illinois is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.


Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Buckeyes managed to advance despite a 1-of-14 performance from beyond the arc, continuing a disturbing trend over their last eight games. Over that stretch, Ohio State has shot 22.6 percent from the 3-point line and made three long-range jumpers or fewer six times after converting at a 35.3-percent clip and hitting eight or more 3-pointers 10 times over its first 24 contests.

Nebraska opened conference play with four straight losses before a victory on Jan. 20 over Ohio State turned the tide of its season. The fourth-seeded Cornhuskers figure to assure themselves of their first invite to the Big Dance since 1998 if they can defeat the fifth-seeded Buckeyes again on Friday in the Big Ten quarterfinals in Indianapolis. Nebraska is 10-3 since upending Ohio State at home and coming off perhaps its most impressive win of the season – a 77-68 victory over Wisconsin.

TRENDS:

* Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 9-2 in Nebraska's last 11 games overall.
* Ohio State is 0-5 in its last five neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACC Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 3

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5, 125)

The ninth-seeded Seminoles helped their chances for an NCAA bid by edging Maryland 67-65 in the second round Thursday. Florida State dropped a pair of 12-point decisions to Virginia in the regular season and could use another big performance from 7-3 Boris Bojanovsky, who slammed home the winning basket against Maryland.

The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense and will depend on a balanced offense as they attempt to snap a four-game losing streak in ACC tournament play and reach the semifinals for the first time since 1995. The Cavaliers had their 13-game win streak snapped at Maryland on Sunday, but finished with a 16-2 record in league play.

TRENDS:

* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Virginia is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Florida State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.


Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (Pick'em, 140)

No. 5 seed Pittsburgh rolled over Wake Forest 84-55 on Thursday in their first-ever ACC tournament game. Senior forward Talib Zanna was held to five points on 2-of-11 shooting in the first meeting with North Carolina, but he has been a force of late while averaging 15.2 points and 9.6 boards in his last five outings. The Panthers will need others such as junior Cameron Wright or freshmen Michael Young and Josh Newkirk to come up big.

North Carolina’s 12-game winning streak ended in its regular-season finale and the Tar Heels look to start another extended run. UNC started its league season 1-4 before Marcus Paige and James Michael McAdoo led a resurgence that ended with a 93-81 loss to Duke on Saturday. North Carolina is 90-42 all time in the ACC tournament with 17 titles, second only to Duke’s 19.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. the ACC.
* Over is 4-0 in Pittsburgh's last four games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in North Carolina's last eight neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pac-12 Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 3

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Arizona Wildcats

The Buffaloes lost both meetings against Arizona this season, but coach Tad Boyle is eager for another shot at the Wildcats. Guard Xavier Johnson, who predicted the Buffaloes would beat Arizona by 20 prior to last month’s contest and then shot 1-for-10 from the field, enters Friday’s game on a high note after scoring in double figures in five straight games.

The Wildcats likely secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament even before the week began, but Thursday’s rout over an overmatched Utah team surely improved their chances. Freshman Aaron Gordon had 23 points and eight rebounds against Colorado in last month’s meeting, when the Wildcats shot 60.3 percent from the field and 8-of-17 from 3-point range.

TRENDS:

* Colorado is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.
* Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in Colorado's last six games overall.
* Under is 16-5-1 in Arizona's last 22 neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big East Tournament betting cheat sheet: Day 3

Providence Friars vs. Seton Hall Pirates

The Friars entered the Big East tournament on the NCAA bubble and could use one more win to lock up their place in the field of 68. Big East second-leading scorer Bryce Cotton battled foul trouble and was held to 12 points on 1-of-9 shooting against St. John’s, but Josh Fortune helped pick up the slack with a career-high 24 points.

Seton Hall is enjoying its first two-game winning streak in the Big East tournament in more than a decade but will need to make it four in a row to gain an improbable entry to the NCAA tournament. The eighth-seeded Pirates will try to take their third straight when they face No. 4 seed Providence in the semifinals in New York on Friday. The Pirates squandered a 15-point lead before battling back to beat Villanova and have secured a pair of one-point victories in the tournament after playing their way into the quarterfinals with a 51-50 triumph over Butler.

TRENDS:

* Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Friars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Pirates last four overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Friars last 9 neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AAC Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 3

Houston Cougars vs. Louisville Cardinals

The Cougars should be feeling confident, however, knocking off third-seeded Southern Methodist in the quarterfinals after losing twice to the Mustangs in the regular season. L.J. Rose led the conference in assists during the regular season at 5.6 but the sophomore guard can also score when asked, especially lately. He has put up 16 points in each of the last three games, a mark he hadn’t reached since November.

The Cardinals prepped for this game by posting a 61-point win against Rutgers in the quarterfinals, the most lopsided win in Division I this season. Louisville has already trounced the Cougars twice this winter, included a 39-point win in January in which the Cardinals shot 15-for-28 from beyond the 3-point arc.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Houston is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Louisville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big 12 Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 3

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas Jayhawks

The No. 16 Cyclones received 24 points and 10 rebounds from Melvin Ejim while recording a 91-85 win over Kansas State. The Cyclones saw Dustin Hogue (19 points, 10 rebounds) join Ejim in posting a double-double and will need strong performances from guard DeAndre Kane and forward Georges Niang to slay the Jayhawks. Ejim has 10 double-doubles this season, including six games in which he has at least 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Top-seeded Kansas didn’t miss injured center Joel Embiid in its Big 12 tournament opener and attempts to claim another victory when it meets up with fourth-seeded Iowa State in Friday’s semifinals in Kansas City. Andrew Wiggins scored 30 points and Tarik Black stepped up to match a career high with 12 rebounds as the No. 10 Jayhawks notched a 77-70 overtime victory over Oklahoma State.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Iowa State is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Kansas is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games vs. the Big 12.
* Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Odds Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews / Doc Sports

I'm not sure what the biggest upset in the NBA has been in a single game this decade, but I'd venture to guess that if Philadelphia can beat Indiana on Friday night that would be on the short list. Here's what you need to know for all of Friday's games, in order of tipoff. Only Lakers-Spurs is on national TV (NBATV).

Timberwolves at Bobcats (+2, 206.5)

This could be a season-changing win for Minnesota should it pull out the victory. The Wolves would get to two games above .500 for the first time since Nov. 22. They are playing better, winners of eight of 11. Minnesota also has won three straight on the road and will be fully-rested, having last played Tuesday in an easy win over Milwaukee. Charlotte has won four of five and hasn't lost a home game since Feb. 8 against San Antonio. Bobcats guard Gary Neal should be back after sitting out Wednesday's win at Washington for an "internal matter." The Bobcats lost 119-92 in Minnesota on Jan. 10.

Key trends: Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its past five against teams with a winning record. The “under” has hit in 11 of Minnesota's past 14 after allowing at least 100 points in its last game.

Early lean: Wolves keep rolling.

Wizards at Magic (+5, 204)

Perhaps Washington is starting to feel the loss of Nene as the Wizards have lost back-to-back games for the first time since mid-February. The offense has gone into a shell, managing 175 total points in the two losses, although it was against good defensive clubs in the Heat and Bobcats. Orlando has lost four straight, and its only win this month was against historically-bad Philadelphia. The Magic are an incredible are 0-31 when being outrebounded this season. The Wizards are 2-0 against Orlando this year, but both were at home.

Key trends: Wizards have covered seven of the past nine meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past four in Orlando.

Early lean: Wizards win outright but Magic able to cover.

Pacers at 76ers (+16, 204.5)

I'm at the point where I no longer know what to say about Philadelphia. The Sixers have lost 18 straight -- the team record is 20 -- and amazingly the last 10 were all by at least 10 points. Philly also has lost a franchise-record 14 consecutive games at home. Philly has a D-League roster at the moment other than Thaddeus Young and Michael Carter-Williams. The Pacers ended their four-game skid Tuesday, but Larry Bird wasn't all that pleased with the 94-83 home win over Boston. Andrew Bynum made his Indiana debut and was very good with eight points and 10 boards in 16 minutes. However, he won't play in this one, which is probably a good thing. Philly fans might riot if he did as Bynum is partly responsible for the mess the Sixers are in. Indiana beat the Sixers by 14 in their only meeting on Nov. 23.

Key trends: Philadelphia is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Indiana's past five against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: I don't think I've ever not taken a team getting 16 at home, but how can you possibly lean the Sixers here? Go over as well.

Grizzlies at Raptors (“pick'em,” 188)

It's the No. 3 scoring defense in Memphis against No. 4 Toronto, so hence the low total. The Raptors have allowed triple digits in just three of their past nine games and has have won seven of them. They held the Pistons to 87 in an easy win Wednesday. Toronto has won 15 of 1its past 19 at home. Memphis has won four straight, three against likely playoff teams, not allowing 100 points in any of them. Mike Conley's layup with 1.5 seconds left Wednesday beat the Pelicans. Toronto won 103-87 in Memphis on Nov. 13.

Key trends: Toronto is 10-2 in its past 12 after a win of more than 10 points. The over is 8-1 in Memphis' past nine after a win.

Early lean: Huge on under with no strong opinion on side.

Suns at Celtics (+3.5, 207.5)

Rajon Rondo will be back in the lineup for Boston on Friday night after he sat out the Celtics' 116-92 home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday in the second of a back-to-back. Boston allowed 68 first-half Knicks points, the most scored by any team at Boston in the first half since 2005. Boston has lost nine of 12 overall. Phoenix is sliding in the West, having lost three straight. The first two, at Golden State and at the Clippers, were understandable. Not Wednesday's 110-101 home loss to Cleveland. Phoenix point guard Eric Bledsoe returned after missing 33 games and had 15 points and nine assists. The Suns played without forward P.J. Tucker due to suspension, but he'll be back.

Key trends: Phoenix is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 against teams with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in Boston's past seven following a double-digit loss at home.

Early lean: Phoenix will play desperate and cover.

Nuggets at Heat (-10, 214)

Miami looks tired as its 96-95 home loss to Brooklyn was the Heat's fourth in the past five games, and the offense is largely struggling. LeBron James had just 19 points against Brooklyn and hasn't had more than 23 since his career-high 61-point night on March 3. Denver ended a four-game road losing streak with a 120-112 win in Orlando on Wednesday, rallying from a 13-ponit deficit. Denver is pretty good when it reaches triple-digits but 2-24 this season when scoring less than 100 points. Miami beat Denver 97-94 on Dec. 30 in the Mile High City as James had 29 on his birthday.

Key trends: Denver is 0-6 ATS in its past six after a win. Under is 7-0 in Miami's past seven following a loss.

Early lean: Miami could be looking ahead to Sunday's big payback game against Houston. Denver it is. Love the under.

Trail Blazers at Pelicans (+3, 206.5)

The big news here is that Portland all-star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge almost certainly will not play after he landed hard on his back in Wednesday's 103-90 loss at San Antonio. X-rays were negative, but he could barely walk. The Blazers have lost a season-high four straight games and have allowed at least 103 points in each of them. New Orleans had a three-game winning streak snapped against Memphis on Wednesday, 90-88. Pelicans guards Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon both sat out. Both were ill, not hurt, so could return for this one.

Key trends: New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 9-2 in Portland's past 11 overall.

Early lean: Depends on Evans/Gordon. I like the Pelicans to win outright if they play.

Lakers at Spurs (-17.5, 227.5)

I thought oddsmakers might wait to see how destroyed the Lakers got on Thursday night in Oklahoma City before posting a line here. The big Lakers news this week was that not only will Kobe Bryant not return this season -- no surprise there -- but he reportedly won't play for Mike D'Antoni, either. Think L.A. regrets not hiring Phil Jackson when it had the chance? The Spurs have won eight straight and five of those by double-figures. Gregg Popovich probably will want to limit his starters' minutes here because it should be a cakewalk.

Key trends: The over is 8-0 in the Lakers' past eight in the second of a back-to-back. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its past five at home against teams with a losing record

Early lean: Lakers as the Spurs will empty the bench early. Thus hard to see reaching this total.

Clippers at Jazz (+8.5, 206.5)

Utah has lost seven of its past eight, and its only win doesn't count: last Saturday at Philadelphia. About the only bright spot of late has been rookie point guard Trey Burke, who has had back-to-back 20-point games for the first time in his career. Los Angeles is on an NBA-high nine-game winning streak despite playing five of those games without sixth man Jamal Crawford. He's not likely to be back here. Also news has come out that J.J. Redick may be officially shut down the rest of the year. Expect Blake Griffin to extend his franchise record of consecutive 20-point games to 25 in this one. He's averaging 32.5 points in two games against Utah this season.

Key trends: L.A. is 7-1 ATS in its past eight Friday games. The under is 6-0 in Utah's past six on Friday.

Early lean: Little bit of a letdown game for L.A. so Utah. The Clips rarely play well there.

Cavaliers at Warriors (-12, TBA)

Golden State's five-game winning streak ended in Wednesday's 111-98 loss at the Clippers. I'm guessing there's no total here because of Stephen Curry, who was limited to 29 minutes against the Clips because he's playing through a quad injury. Still, there is little doubt he will play. Actually it could be because Klay Thompson will sit it out because of a death in the family. He's averaging 17.9 points per game. The Cavs ended their four-game losing streak with a 110-101 win at Phoenix on Wednesday. Cleveland has won five of its past seven against the West. Golden State won 108-104 in overtime at Cleveland on Dec. 29. That was in the middle of the Warriors' season-high 10-game winning streak. Curry missed a triple-double by one rebound. The Warriors have won six straight in this series.

Key trends: Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its past eight after a win. The over is 8-2 in Golden State's past 10 against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Cavs should hang close without Thompson in there.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 98 - Washington Wizards 94 _____ _____

(7:05) Indiana Pacers 103 - PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 93 _____ _____

(7:05) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 103 - Minnesota Wolves 98 _____ _____

(7:05) TORONTO RAPTORS 107 - Memphis Grizzlies 100 _____ _____

(7:35) Phoenix Suns 109 - BOSTON CELTICS 95 _____ _____

(7:35) MIAMI HEAT 111 - Denver Nuggets 93 _____ _____

(8:05) Portland Trailblazers 109 - NEW ORLEANS 102 _____ _____

(8:35) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 119 - LA Lakers 99 (NBA) _____ _____

(9:05) Los Angeles Clippers 108 - UTAH JAZZ 94 _____ _____

(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 114 - Cleveland Cavaliers 101 _____ _____

BEST BETS
CHARLOTTE (4)
PHOENIX
MIAMI
SAN ANTONIO (3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Minnesota won five of its last seven games. Charlotte won four of its last five games.
-- Toronto won seven of its last nine games. Grizzlies won six of their last seven.
-- New Orleans won three of its last four games.
-- Clippers won their last nine games (7-2 vs spread).
-- Golden State won five of its last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost its last four games, all by 7+ points. Wizards lost last two games, by 9-13 points.
-- 76ers lost their last 18 games (4-14 vs spread). Pacers lost four of their last five games.
-- Suns lost four of their last five games. Boston lost seven of last ten.
-- Nuggets lost eight of last eleven games. Miami lost four of last five.
-- Portland lost five of its last six games.
-- Lakers lost four of their last five games.
-- Jazz won seven of their last eight games.
-- Cavaliers lost four of their last five games.

Series records
-- Bobcats are 5-3 in last eight games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Orlando.
-- 76ers are 3-5 in their last eight games with Indiana.
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Toronto.
-- Suns won five of last eight games with Boston.
-- Miami won last three games with Denver by 3-5-3 points.
-- Pelicans won three of last four games with Portland.
-- Lakers lost nine of last ten games with San Antonio.
-- Clippers won their last eight games with Utah.
-- Warriors won their last six games with Cleveland.

Totals
-- Three of last four Charlotte games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Magic-Wizard games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Indiana-Philly games.
-- Eight of last ten Memphis games went over total.
-- Six of last nine Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Denver games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Portland games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Laker games went over total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Clipper games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Cleveland games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Sharks won five of their last six games.
-- Edmonton is 8-6 in its last fourteen games.
-- New Jersey won five of its last seven games.
-- Predators won last two games, after losing seven of previous eight.
-- Dallas Stars won six of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won six of its last seven games.


Cold teams
-- Islanders lost six of their last nine games.
-- Canucks lost five of their last seven games. Washington lost five of last six.
-- Red Wings lost four of their last five games.
-- Florida lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Chicago lost nine of its last fifteen games.
-- Winnipeg lost its last five games, scoring total of ten goals. Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Flames lost three of last four road games.
-- Anaheim lost its last four games, outscored 17-8.

Totals
-- Six of last eight San Jose games went over total.
-- Last four Washington games stayed under total.
-- Last three Edmonton games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven New Jersey games went over total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Nashville games.
-- Four of last five Ranger games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Calgary games.
-- Last four Colorado games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Islanders lost five of last six games with San Jose.
-- Canucks won their last four games with Washington.
-- Red Wings won 12 of last 13 games with Edmonton.
-- Devils won five of last six games with Florida.
-- Blackhawks won seven of last eight games with Nashville.
-- Rangers lost three of last four games with Winnipeg.
-- Stars won their last three games with Calgary.
-- Avalanche won five of last eight games with Anaheim.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Fri: Tulsa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 U
TOP PLAY
MICH OVER 123-

REG PLAYS
VIRG OVER 125
FLOR OVER 133-
NEB UNDER 125
PITT OVER 140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beat Your Bookie

VIRG
NEBRASKA
LOUISVILLE
PACERS
SPURS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fantasy Gametime Sports

VIRG
MICH
FLOR
HEAT
CLIPPERS