3-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sweet Jones 55
Wizards -1 -115

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Sheep's Moves

#866 Louisville -18

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Bruce Marshall

Michigan St -13.5

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EZWINNERS
CBB
1* Sam Houston St -3

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Greg Shaker

All 2*
Tulsa Over 129
Xavier Under 145
VCU Over 130
Arizona Over 130

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SBP Original NBA

No plays today.

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Betting As A Business
NBA
Toronto pk / Memphis 7:05 ET 1.00 Unit (Play ON Toronto)

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Doc Sports

NBA
6* Clippers -9
3* Washington -5
3* Memphis/Toronto Under 186.5
3* Clevland/Golden St Under 201
2* Memphis PK

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Joey Cassano

added

Middle Tenn St. +1.5

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Dave Essler

3* Triple Dime George Washington

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic
Time: Friday 03/14 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -5 (-105) at 5Dimes

A lot was expected of the Washington Wizards this season. They have been a team that had struggled for years, but turned the corner a year ago. The Wizards have started to come on despite a pair of losses, as they are a robust 8-3 in their last 11 games. Their measure of success has been their road prowess that shows them at a nifty 15-1 ATS when taking to the road after a home game in their last 16. Without Dwight Howard, Orlando has fallen to the lower tier of the NBA. The Magic has lost four straight including a loss to the lowly Milwaukee Bucks - the NBA's worst team this season. The Wizards have dominated this team as they are 7-1-1 ATS and I see nothing to change that here. Play on Washington.

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Fezzik's Focus

862 Providence -2.5

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Syracuse -9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, March 14, 2014

NBA



NBA ROAD WARRIOR PLAY

Washington Wizards (-5) at Orlando Magic 7:05 ET

4% Washington (-5)

Well aware that the Wizards are facing an Orlando team that has played far better at home recently than on the road. Nonetheless, the Magic enters today’s matchup with a recent record of 16-45 SU and 13-22 ATS. On a 4 game losing streak, with little to play for, the Magic have spit the bit on the defensive side of the ball, where in the last 10 games they are allowing 107/48. Now, they must face a Washington team who has been one of the NBA Road Warriors. For the season, the Wizards are 18-15 SU on the road, including 18-4 ATS as road favorite to +9 and a long-term 21-6 ATS as road chalk. Despite a pair of recent losses (Washington is 17-12 ATS following a defeat TY), the Wiz remain on a positive run of 8-3 SU. They have owned this Magic team of late winning 4 of 5, while covering 7 of 9. Make this 10* Road Warrior play your top investment of the day in the NBA.



Minnesota T-Wolves (-2) at Charlotte Bobcats 7:05 ET

3% Charlotte (+2)

Despite all hands on deck, Minnesota cannot put together a winning streak to propel them into playoff contention in the West. Even with the return of Pecovic and Martin, the point guard play of Rubio and the all-around excellence of Love, this team has covered just 1 of their last 5 games, while allowing 112 PPG. The Bobcats’ resurgence is for real. Witness the 98-85 road victory at upwardly mobile Washington on Wednesday. The Bobcats are now 12-7 SU ATS of late. As is true of many young emerging teams, the streaks often happen at home. It is here that Charlotte has won 7 consecutive games while recording a 10-1 ATS recent mark. With the inside/outside tandem of Jefferson and Walker leading the way, this victory will certainly not be a shock to this bureau.



Phoenix Suns (-5) at Boston Celtics 7:30 ET

3% Phoenix (-5)

All current NBA teams, who are .500 or better, are 188-129 ATS following a defeat. Thus, it is we feel comfortable lining up with Phoenix, who is 17-10 ATS following a defeat. Though the Suns have dropped 3 straight, the return of Bledsoe will be positive news for them, as they integrate their starting guard back into the lineup. The Suns continue to over achieve their 20 projected wins with a mark of 36-28. Yet, in the rugged Western Conference, they are still vying for playoff inclusion. The Suns have shined brightest on the road, where they are 20-9 ATS. This mark fits hand in glove with the similar inverted home/road dichotomy of Boston. The Celtics are just 8-14 ATS of late on the parquet and an under achieving 7-11 ATS as home dog this year. Even with the return of PG Rondo, the Cs have shown little upside since the All-Star break, going 3-9 SU, all part of their recent 9-26 SU slide. Play this super surger vs. towel tosser as the West continues to dominate the East at these short road prices.



CBKB

Florida St. vs. Virginia (-6-) Noon ET ESPN2

4% Virginia (-6-)

The only thing preventing this from being a Top of the Ticket play is the fine record of Florida St. under 12th year HC Hamilton whose teams are 112-66 ATS as dog to -1. It certainly is NOT the Florida St. bubblicious underdog role which has seen more participants bleed with need over the years. Besides, the dog role did not help the Sems when they took 5 in a 62-50 loss at C’ville, one of two 12 point defeats to the Cavs this year. Far more interested in backing No. 1 seed Virginia, who enters off a loss at Maryland last Sunday, thus ensuring full focus for this contest. No surprise that under HC Bennett, Virginia maintained their Defensive Dandy status all season long with numbers of 55/38/32 and their combination of +11.4 in rebound, TO, and Assist/TO margin. The experience of Harris and Mitchell are of key consideration. But, it is a young, emerging guard tandem of PG Perrantes and scoring guard Brogdon that has lifted the Cavs to the top of this loop. Expect this to translate to a double digit victory today.



Pitt vs. N. Carolina (-1) 2:30 ET ESPN2

3% N. Carolina (-1)

The Panthers used the momentum of their miracle OT win vs. Wake Forest last Saturday to make a statement in their opening game 84-55 victory against Wake on Thursday. But, the only thing keeping this from a higher rating is the record of 11th year Pitt HC Dixon in this role which finds his Panthers to be 46-23 ATS as dog to -1. Veteran Carolina HC Smith counters that with his own solid CPP (coaching personality profile) that finds his Tarheels’ teams to be 49-22 ATS following a loss. Last Saturday night, the Tarheels traveled to Cameron, where the Dookies got their revenge from an earlier 74-66 defeat. Yet, current form still suggests that Carolina is the play. That loss snapped a 12 game winning streak which has seen Carolina go 9-4 ATS. Along the way was a 75-71 victory vs. this Pitt team at the Smith Center. This streak has coincided with the return to the lineup of Leslie McDonald, who has eased the burden on the perimeter for PG Paige and made life a lot easier for interior forces, McAdoo, Tokoto and Meeks. Long-term concerns abound about the Tarheels’ ability from the arc and the stripe, another reason to be conservative in this rating.



Illinois vs. Michigan (-7) Noon ET ESPN

5% Michigan (-7)

Following a 75-55 victory vs. Penn St. on January 4th, the Illini stood 13-2 SU, 2-0 SU in Big 10 play. Then, the bottom fell out in a run that saw the Illini go 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS. Miraculously, they turned it around with a 62-49 victory vs. Minnesota, February 19th. Since that time, they have gone 5-1 SU ATS, including upset wins at Minnesota, at Michigan St., at Iowa, and vs. Indiana yesterday (64-54). The key has been a defense that in 4 of those 6 games has held the opposition to 54 or less points. Now, the bad news for the Illini … their lone loss during this major turnaround was to this Michigan team by a wipeout score of 84-53. CCT handicapping theory is clear that the Illini’s 2 most recent upsets, including yesterday, combined with Michigan’s 5-0 SU streak to end the season (and maintain the No. 1 seed), is a bad omen for the Illini today.



St. Bonnie vs. St. Louis (-6) Noon ET NBCS

4% St. Louis (-6)

The Bonnie’s snapped a 0-4 SU, 0-5 ATS season-ending slide with an 82-72 victory against a LaSalle team who is the league’s biggest underachiever this year. So what! Today, it is a different animal and a very focused one. The Bills ended a 19 game winning streak when they beat GW (66-59) on February 21st. That led them to a 25-2 SU record with losses to only possible No. 1 seeds, Wisconsin and Wichita St. But, the bottom fell out with a 71-64 home loss to Duquesne (as -15). That keyed a 3 game losing streak before the Bills were able to turn things around with a season ending 64-62 road win at NCAA bound UMass. Consider that a buy sign for the most experienced team in the country with 5 senior starters. Under 2nd year HC Crews, the fundamentals installed by former HC Majerus have stuck like glue. Yet, St. Louis is rarely a margin team this season. It is not often that you see a 26-5 SU team with a 10-17 ATS mark. But, that is exactly what we have with SLU today, a reason why we get this huge discounted, value price. It will pay off for us in what I expect to be a double digit victory.



Dayton vs. St. Josephs (-1) 2:30 ET NBCS

3% St. Josephs (-1)

Dayton was good to us in their victory over Fordham yesterday closing out the Rams with an 87-74 win. Now, the Flyers remain on the precipice of the NCAA bubble with a closing season burst of 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS. Following a 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS run, St. Joes cooled down the stretch with a loss at GW and season-ending LHG embarrassment to underachieving Big 5 rival, LaSalle (71-73). Expect that to key a bounce back today against a Dayton team the Hawks defeated twice this season, by margins of 26 and 3 points.



S. Carolina vs. Tennessee (-10) 3:30 ET ESPNU

5% Tennessee (-10)

Following an 83-67 loss at Auburn on February 26th, the Gamecocks stood 10-18 SU for the season, 3-12 SU in the league. An improbable home upset of Kentucky sparked resurgence. Though it was followed by a loss to league leader, Florida, the Gamecocks have since spurted to a 3-0 SU ATS mark, all as underdog, covering by 43 points. Should we consider it a coincidence that this surge began at Mississippi St., when the tongue lashing of profanity administered by 2nd year HC Martin was a highlight of social media in recent days? But, handicapping theory is clear that 3 times is enough (upsets that is), especially when your next contest is in CCT play. Now, they must meet an opponent whose interior forces of Maymon and Stokes dominated the Gamecocks in an earlier meeting by a count of 72-53 on February 8th. The Vols have been ontheir own late season surge, as they have taken seriously the allegation that they remain on the bubble. Their last 3 games have been victories of 76-38 vs. Vandy, 82-54 at Auburn, and 72-45 to close the season vs. Missouri. Key difference from their opponent is that the Vols were favored in all those games. Please note that the Vols’ last 7 victories have all been by 16 or more points. Tennessee continues their ascent to the positive side of the bubble.







Minnesota vs. Wisconsin (-5) 6:30 ET BIG10

5% Wisconsin (-5)

The presses of Pitino, the younger, do not figure to bother the Badgers who turn it over only 8.2 times per game, among the best in the nation. This is Ryan’s most athletic team in his tenure with scoring options extending beyond the arc, along with the ability to drive and dish. Motivated by a season-ending loss at Nebraska, look for the Badgers to be playing for the Championship on Sunday and a potential No. 1 seed in the upcoming Big Dance. Defense, as always, is a staple for Ryan’s minions.



Richmond vs. VCU (-8-) 6:30 ET NBCS

4% VCU (-8-)

These two last met in a Richmond avenger in the Robins Center on March 6th. Richmond led virtually the entire game before havoc ensued down the stretch, resulting in a 56-50 series sweep. Though the Spiders rebounded from their 0-4 SU ATS regular season finish with a 76-64 blasting of Duquesne on Thursday, it is clear they are not the same team without best boy, Cedric Lindsay, the heart and soul of their team. Shaka Smart is on a typical 4-0 SU season ending run with a 10-3 SU ATS record since late January.



Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-1) 9:30 ET

3% Ole Miss (+1)

These teams are on the outside of the bubble looking in with the loser clearly not being offered an invitation to the Dance. Georgia has been one of the real surprise stories in the SEC with a record of 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS. That includes an 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS recent run, a 61-60 home court victory against this Ole Miss team, and a 69-61regular season-ending win at LSU. Yet, it is still not enough! We will opt for the Ole Miss Rebels, whose 2nd half super surge against rival Miss St. resulted in our 78-66 Top of the Ticket SEC Conference GOY winner. Back court tandem of Henderson and Summers a bit too prolific for the outmanned Georgia perimeter.



S. Mississippi vs. LA Tech (-2-) 6:30 ET CBSC

5% LA Tech (-2-)

LA Tech cruised (86-65 as -10) in our Top of the Ticket Conference USA GOY last night against outmanned Charlotte. Yet, this No. 1 seed continues to get little respect from the linemaker. Must back Tech and their Defensive Dandy status, a unit that allows just 66/40/29 and holds commanding positives in rebounding, TOs, and Assist/TO margin. Aside the fact this may well be a one-bid league, consider the motivation of 80-71 revenge for an earlier loss at Hattiesburg (where S. Miss was an undefeated 14-0 SU this season). Now on a neutral court and continuing to work injured star, Appelby, back into the lineup, look for the Bulldogs to ascend to the title game of the CUSA Championship.



Akron (-2) vs. W. Michigan 7:00 ET

5% Akron (-2)

Akron is a perennial champion in the MAC. Early in the season, the Zips had trouble fitting together the pieces under 10th year HC Dambrot. Now, the Zips are beginning to fire on all cylinders, as they enter this game on a 4-0 SU run scoring 83 points each in a pair of games against upper echelon league foes, Buffalo and Ohio. Along with that improved scoring, it is the defense that is a constant in this Akron program. Rarely do we see a time with a 21-11 SU mark struggle to a 10-18 ATS record. When we find one, it is time to take note of the value they offer. Such is the case today, as the Zips use the coaching experience of Hipsher, a solid defense, and an improving offense to get this victory against the No. 1 seed.



Houston vs. Louisville (-19) 7:00 ET ESPN2

3% Louisville (-19)

We often hear that March is referred to as Pitino time. It certainly was true last season when the Cards cut down the nets. A measure of that late season success is represented by this CPP (coaching personality profile) trend of Pitino, whose teams are 76-44 ATS following consecutive spread victories. It is an example of the way they blow through teams late in the season. Such has been the case in their most recent two games with victories over UConn (81-48) and Rutgers (92-31) on Thursday. Having already beaten Houston (91-52), they now catch the Cougars off an upset of a respected SMU team. It will make Louisville pay a bit of attention and roll to yet another 20 point victory against a Cougar team, who is unable to slow the pace.



Iowa St. vs. Kansas (-4) 7:00 ET ESPNU

3% Kansas (-4)

No Embiid? No matter! Frosh Wiggins has taken a leadership role, scoring 71 combined points in the last 2 games. Besides, this figures to be an open court affair, with the Cyclones preferring the 94 foot game. That resulted in a pair of Kansas victories in the regular season (92-81) and (77-70). The Iowa St. trio of PG Kane and interior forces, Niang and Ejim, are too much for most to handle. But, Kansas has athletic bigs that can float to the perimeter and shut down the arc. Kansas led by double digits against a desperate Oklahoma St. team yesterday. Yet, the Jayhawks showed enough poise to survive in OT by scoring the last 8 points in a 77-70 victory. That will hold them in good stead, if this game is close down the stretch.



San Diego St. (-4-) at UNLV 9:00 ET CBSC

4% San Diego St. (-4-)

You can allay your concerns about the Thomas and Mack Center. UNLV had an inverted home/road dichotomy this season, resulting in just a 3-7 ATS record at home in league play. Meanwhile, the Defensive Dandy status of San Diego St., who allows just 57/38/29, is reinforced by positives in the critical margins of rebounds, TOs, and Assist/TO margin. It resulted in a 13-2 SU road and neutral record for the Aztecs, including wins against Creighton, Marquette, and Kansas. Besides, road chalk in the CCT is a better than a 63% play when not facing a home team with the momentum of a 3-0 SU ATS streak. Aztecs showed they were hungry to win this event with a no-nonsense (73-39) blasting of Utah St. Consider that 15th year HC Fisher is a 67% play when allowing 50 or less points in the previous game and an 80% play coming off a win of 30 or more points. Having already defeated the Rebels (63-52) and (73-64) at this site, it is clear that the sweep is in order.



Cal Poly vs. Cal Irvine (-6-) 9:30 ET

4% Cal Irvine (-6-)

The Mustangs caught an overconfident Gaucho team and pulled a massive (69-38) upset against one of the best teams in the league. UCSB shot just 33%, while the Ponies had a +5 rebound margin and committed only 5 TOs. Armed with the knowledge of that outcome, do not expect the Anteaters to take Cal Poly for granted. Cal Irvine is the best interior team in the league, who figures to dominate the glass from start to finish against a Mustang team with a negative rebounding margin. In a pair of earlier victories against the Ponies, Irvine won 64-50 and 55-48, turning the defensive screws much as they did in our Top Play winner last night (63-43 as -11) against River. Knowing this is a one-bid league, top rated seeds always give a great effort in the semi-finals.



N. Colorado at Weber St. (-5-) 9:00 ET

3% Weber St. (-5-)

It is a down year for the Big Sky. Yet, Weber took command in the 2nd half of the season for a 14-6 SU league mark that garnered them the advantage of their strong home court. Though Weber was just 6-6 ATS at the Dee Events Center this season, under 8th year HC Rahe, the Wildcats are a dominant 58-39 ATS. Reinforcing that is the fact that in CCT play rested home teams following a victory are an 80% play. It was no contest when the Wildcats faced the Bears on this court this season, winning 79-65. Despite a pair of losses on this court, the Cats rarely lose here where they are 53-7 SU the previous 4 years. N. Colorado was a peripatetic team this season, whose fortunes were often tied to their shooting prowess. That regressed a bit down the stretch, as following a 13-4 SU start, the Bears finished on a 5-8 SU slide and just 4-9 ATS. Along the way have come some negative outings on the road, as they stand 0-3 ATS of late as road dog of 5 or more points with those losses by 14, 13, and 7 points. Must back Weber at home in this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* UCLA -3