4-13-14

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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

NBA | TORONTO at DETROIT
Play Against – Any team (DETROIT) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite
113-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.9% | 45.9 units )
14-7 this year. ( 66.7% | 6.3 units )

NBA | TORONTO at DETROIT
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (DETROIT) revenging a loss vs opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
415-183 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 119.6 units )
60-28 this year. ( 68.2% | 2.1 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at INDIANA
Play Under – All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

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Baseball Crusher
Milwaukee Brewers -131 over Pittsburgh Pirates
(System Record: 8-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 8-6

Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild -160 over Nashville Preds
(System Record: 91-4, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 91-72-1

Basketball Crusher
Golden State Warriors +3 over Portland Trail Blazers
(System Record: 75-8, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 75-85-5

Soccer Crusher
Colon + Boca Juniors UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 551-20, won last 6 games and a push)
Overall Record: 551-473-81


Rest of Crusher's Plays today:

Washington Nationals -119 over Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds -133 over Tampa
Boston Red Sox +100 over NY Yankees

Ottawa Senators + Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 5.5
Dallas Stars +104 over Phoenix Coyotes
Buffalo Sabres + New York Islanders UNDER 5.5

Orlando Magic + Brooklyn Nets OVER 196.5
Detroit Pistons + Toronto Raptors UNDER 206
LA Lakers +12 over Memphis Grizzlies

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Philadelphia Phillies -118 over the Miami Marlins (Moneyline Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 1:35 PM EST

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Prophet Plays 4/13



Baltimore ML
Atlanta ML
Arizona ML
Yankees over 9


St Louis -1.5 runs
Arizona over 8.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +107 over MILWAUKEE

Despite being the hottest team in baseball, we can’t get on board with Kyle Lohse spotting a price because Lohse is on the verge of a blowup. Lohse has never been a dominant pitcher but because of his excellent control and ability to keep hitters off balance, he’s been able to win games consistently and pitch close to or more than 200 innings in each of the last three seasons. However, in his two starts this year that control has abandoned him, as Lohse has walked 7 batters in 12 frames. His hit and strand rates the past two years are mildly lucky and explain the gap between ERA (3.23) and xERA (4.15). In his two starts this year, Lohse’s strand and hit rates are normal and the result is his 4.50 ERA in two starts. Also note that Lohse has an alarming 1.58 ERA in those two starts. With three plus years of a lot of good fortune, Lohse’s lack of good skills are a sure thing to cause more blowups this year than he’s seen since his regular blowups from 2001 to 2010. Additionally, current Pirates have never been fooled by Lohse, as they have 55 hits in 161 career AB’s against him for a BA of .342.

Charlie Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any starter in MLB. His skills in the second half of 2013 featured solid command and the highest groundball rate in the game at 62%. Morton continues to work harder than any pitcher in the game in an attempt to improve his craft. Last season, Morton had one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swinging strike rate) but he had a sub-7% swinging strike rate on all of his other pitches. He’s improved in that area too this season, as his swinging K rate is 11% and he’s already struck out 11 batters in 12 innings while walking just two. With his arm strength returning in full-force in 2013 and showing no signs of trouble this year,, Charlie Morton is a legit breakout target and offers up way more value as a pooch than Kyle Lohse does as the favorite.

Our Pick Pittsburgh +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)


Miami +106 over PHILADELPHIA

It’s not customary for us to play on cold teams, as the Marlins have now dropped six straight but we’ll make an exception here because Kyle Kendrick is not worthy of being a price against anyone. Kendrick’s last game came at home against the Brewers where he was tagged for nine hits, six runs and two jacks in five innings. Kendrick’s skills look like those of a back-end starter, nothing more. He has excellent control and improved it in 2013 but a lack of strikeouts continue to hamper his long-term outlook. There’s not much more than meets the eye with Kendrick. Without a big strikeout pitch or plus velocity (his sinker tops out at 89 mph), there’s lots of hard contact against him. His WHIP (1.40) in 2013 was at an unacceptable level and he’s right back at that level in his two starts this year. Kendrick may have some value as a dog but as a favorite in his home park, he has none.

Henderson Alvarez is just 24 years old and is close to become a relevant pitcher at this level. Alvarez continues to fascinate. Though his strikeout rates are low, his velocity is not. Alvarez’s average sinker speed in 2013 (which he throws 59% of the time) was 92.6 mph. He also flashed a mid-90’s fastball, good command and a high groundball tilt. His lack of more than one swing-and-miss pitch hinders his short-term upside but his heavy fastball and improving slider makes him worthy of backing in certain situations. In his two starts this year, despite being tagged for 13 hits and four runs in 8.2 frames, Alvarez’s strong 59%/22%/19% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile reveals his upside even more, making him and the Fish very worthy of taking back a tag.

Our PickMiami +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

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Ben Burns NHL

Phoenix ML

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Chase Diamond

9* Oakland -130

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Paul Leiner

100* A's -125

100* Royals -120

50* Reds -135

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won both plays on Saturday.

Manny Pacquiao -$220/Timothy Bradley and the Brewers -$145/Pirates.

E&B had a play in soccer on Liverpool +$130/ Manchester City and a play on the draw.

The game just finished Liverpool won 3-2.

For Sunday in MLB in the National league "Mr Chalk" likes the Giants -$168/Rockies.

Ben lee is 5-4 +$25 for week twenty four 92-106-5 -$1971

"Mr Chalk" is 5-5 -$73 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

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Sunday's National League betting cheat sheet

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Five of the nine runs Henderson Alvarez has allowed this season have been unearned.

Cold batting stat: Giancarlo Stanton has struck out seven times against Kyle Kendrick during their lifetime series.

Weather: Partly cloudy and 61 degrees.

Key betting note: Phils have won 12 of their last 15 against Miami.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (109, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Washington's Gio Gonzalez is hot out of the gate with a 2-0 record and a .75 ERA

Hot batting stat: BJ Upton ended a home run drought dating back to last August yesterday.

Weather: Currently unavailable.

Key betting note: Atlanta own the Nationals in recent history, holding a 21-7 record over the last 28 games.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a .66 ERA in hist two starts against the Brew.

Hot batting stat: Ryan Braun is looking to build off a three home run explosion he posted against the Phillies this week.

Weather: Cold with weather in the high 40's.

Key betting note: Milwaukee's +25 run differential is seven better than any other team in the majors as the Brewers are the hottest team in the majors.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-220, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Michael Wacha has built off a breakout 2013 with two quality starts for St. Louis, finishing 1-0 with a .72 ERA to date.

Hot batting stat: Nate Scherholtz is 6-for-9 with three doubles in the series.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a potential high of 69.

Key betting note: Over is 4-1 in the Cards last five games.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (115, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Trevor Cahill is already off to a nightmare 2014, holding an 0-3 record and a 7.90 ERA.

Hot batting stat: Arizona have struck out 23 times in the first two games of the weekend series.

Weather: Sunny and warm.

Key betting note: Los Angeles have won 11 of their last 14 against the Diamondbacks.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-153, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Tim Hudson has turned back the clock for San Fran, going 2-0 to start 2014 for the Giants.

Hot batting stat: Rockies are on a five game winning streak against righties.

Weather: Cloudy and 53.

Key betting note: Rockies are 5-2 in their last seven against the NL West.

Interleague

Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (-137, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Reds' starter Tony Cigrani only made it through four innings in his last start, needing 88 pitches to make it through 12 outs after giving up three runs in the first inning.

Hot batting stat: Evan Longoria is continuing to be key for the Rays with hits in 10 of Tampa Bay's 12 games so far.

Weather: 16 MPH winds from the South.

Key betting note: Cincy are currently one of the coldest teams in baseball and are just 3-8 on the season.

Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres (128, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Max Scherzer is 13-3 on the road facing teams with losing records as of late.

Cold batting stat: Key Padres stars Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin are still out of the lineup for San Diego.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.

Key betting note: Under is 7-1 in the last eight road games for the Tigers with a total of 6.5 or lower.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's America League betting cheat cheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Sunday's American League games:

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-113, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Veteran Mark Buehrle has been locked in during April. The former White Sox ace is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in what has the makings of a return to his youthful form.

Cold batting stat: Jose Bautista is batting just .077 against Ubaldo Jiminez lifetime.

Weather: Calm and cool in the mid fifties.

Key betting note: The first two games of the weekend set have went Under easily in a 2-0 Toronto win Friday and a 2-1 extra innings victory on Saturday.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-110, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Ivan Nova has done well to keep the ball inside the park against the Red Sox historically, against the current Boston lineup only David Ortiz has a home run to his name against Nova.

Hot batting stat: Alfonsio Soriano has a .600 average and two home runs lifetime against projected Red Sox starter Felix Doubront.

Weather: Cool and calm April weather on the East Coast. 55 degrees and little wind is the early forecast.

Key betting note: Despite Nova's ability to keep the ball in the park against the Red Sox current batters, the Over is 6-1 in Nova's recent starts in the New York-Boston Rivalry.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-170, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Houtson are 0-6 in Oberholtzer's last starts.

Hot batting stat: Chris Carter is batting .575 lifetime with two home runs against Martin Perez.

Weather: High winds at 17 mph.

Key betting note: Rangers are 12-1 in last 13 games as favorites.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (120, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Jason Vargas first start of the season finished with eight strikeouts and a 1.20 ERA.

Cold batting stat: Justin Maxwell is 0-for-6 lifetime against Twins starter Kevin Correira,

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low 60's.

Key betting note: Twins are 0-5 in Correira's last five starts against KC.

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (-120, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Both starting pitchers in Sunday's matinee are coming off quality starts.

Cold batting stat: Chicago slugger Adam Dunn has yet to record a home run or RBI in his history with Indians starter Kluber over 11 career at bats.

Weather: Calm winds and cool weather at 57 degrees.

Key betting note: Indians are on a 9-2 streak in Chicago.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (115, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Scott Kazmir has allowed just nine hits over 13 1/3 innings of work this season, striking out 10 batters during two wins off the hop for the A's.

Cold batting stat: Mariners were 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position during Saturday's loss.

Weather: Calm and mid fifties.

Key betting note: Oakland are 4-1 on the road to date in 2014.

Interleague

New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels (-171, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: The Mets bullpen blew a three run lead last night, but still managed to hold onto an extra innings win.

Hot batting stat: Mike Trout if is 7-for-14 with two home runs against Bartolo Colon.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s.

Key betting note: Los Angeles struggled with interleague play last season, finishing with a mediocre 10-10 record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* Triple Dime Pittsburgh Pirates +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bones Best Bet


Saturday MLB recap: 3-4, +0.29u








No NBA plays today and doesn't look like we'll be on the final day of the NHL season either so we have turned our full attention to the diamond (and the Masters) for this Sunday afternoon. Huge MLB card here today guys - we've won 6 days in a row now and see no reason to slow down. A couple small 1 unit plays on the card so if you're going to leave any off your card, these should be the first two to miss.








BREWERS ML -115 *5* BEST BET (2:10 PM ET)








The Brewers are going for their NINTH straight win today and we really like their chances here today. They own a team ERA of an incredible 1.87 on the year and have the 8th highest scoring offense with 4.82 runs per game. Like we said yesterday, there is no hotter team in baseball and we fully plan on riding this wave until it's time to get off.








DODGERS ML -123 *3* (4:10 PM ET)








Dodgers going for the 3 game sweep today and it is set up perfectly for them with Cahill on the mound today for the Diamondbacks. Cahill has 3 starts this year and hasn't gone more than 6 innings in any. He has a 7.90 ERA on the year allowing 5, 2 and 5 earned runs in each of his 3 starts. Dodgers starters Haren has started 2 games, is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA.








CARDINALS ML + TIGERS ML +150 *3* (2:15 PM ET)








All you really need to know about this parlay is Wacha (1-0, 0.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) throwing today for the Cards and Scherzer (0-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) on the hill for the Tigers.








NATIONALS ML -118 *2* (1:35 PM ET)








Nats are 16-2 in Gio's last 18 starts as a road fave. The Braves are 1-4 their last 5 vs a left handed starter. The Nats are 4-0 in Hernandez last 4 behind the plate and road teams are 13-3 his last 16 behind the plate.










PHILLIES ML -118 *1* (1:35 PM ET)








The Phillies have won both games in this series and the Marlins have lost 6 straight. Alvarez has been bad this year with a 1.96 WHIP in 2 games. Phillies are 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts.










BLUE JAYS ML -104 *1* (1:35 PM ET)








Ubaldo has had some major control struggles since joining the Orioles - while Buerhle has been lights out for the Jays early on this season. Both offenses have been poor, but we like the Jays chances against a pitcher who cannot place his pitches to save his life right now. Despite Toronto's 6-6 record, they have been better than that this season.








WHITE SOX ML -119 *3* (2:10 PM ET)








Love the Sox here today. Chicago has a pitching advantage we like here with Quintana who has been solid with a 2.77 era in his first 2 starts. While the Indians counter with Kluber who has struggled with a 7.22 era. Cleveland is hitting .200 vs leftys while losing 4 of 5 against them. We look for Chicago to bounce back in a big way here today.








ATHLETICS ML -127 *2* (4:10 PM ET)








Kazmir vs Young, very simple here and the price is right. Kazmir has seemed to find himself once again starting the year 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA. While the Mariners turn out of sheer desperation to Chris Young who was previously in the bullpen and making his first start of the year.








RED SOX @ YANKEES OVER 9 -110 *2* (8:05 PM ET)








Two pitchers with 2+ WHIPs in their two starts this season. Neither Doubront or Nova has put anything together this season, and both teams had a strong offensive showing yesterday despite much better pitches on the mound. Doubront has been torched by the Yankees lately giving up 12 runs in his past 7.2 innings against them. On the flip side, Nova hasn't done much better allowing 7 runs over 8 innings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

(records are of current month only)
BASEBALL RELEASES
JEFF (7-10-3 -4.73)
1X- CLEVELAND +115 CHICAGO (2PM)
1X- TEXAS/HOUSTON – OVER 9 -120 (3PM)

JIMMY (13-7 +4.69)
1X- LA DODGERS -120 ARIZONA (4PM)

MARC (15-12 +.51)
1X- MIAMI/PHILLY – OVER 9 -105 (130PM)
1X- BOSTON/NY – OVER 9 -120 (8PM)

NHL RELEASES
JIMMY (4-6 -5.44)
1X- NY ISLANDERS -120 BUFFALO (5PM)

MARC (5-5-1 -.95)
1X- PHOENX/DALLAS – UNDER 5.5 -120 (9PM)

NBA RELEASES
JEFF (2-5 -3.50)
1X- ORLANDO/BROOKLYN – UNDER 196.5 (6PM)

JIMMY (0-2 -2.20)
PASS

MARC (5-2+2.80)
1X- GOLDEN ST/PORTLAND – OVER 203 (9PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS with rating

10* NHL Motivational Mismatch!
Phoenix ML