5-10-14

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Baltimore -155 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 37 of the last 57 games when playing on a Saturday and they have lost 28 of the last 40 games vs. AL East Division Opponents.Houston has lost 150 of the last 203 games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have lost 126 of the last 178 road games.

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50* Play Detroit -200 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -160 over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

SATURDAY

• Play San Antonio -1.5 over Portland (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  10:30 PM EST

Portland has lost 29 of the last 43 games against the spread vs. Southwest Division Opponents and they have lost 24 of the last 48 games against the spread after allowing 105 points or more in their last game.Portland has lost 28 of the last 40 home games against the spread coming off a loss and they are allowing an average of 112 points in playoff games this season.

• Play Brooklyn +1.5 over Miami (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play Montreal +190 over Boston (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play Anaheim +155 over Los Angeles (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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XpertPicks

SATURDAY BASEBALL

• Play Los Angeles Angels +110 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  1:00 PM EST

JA Happ has lost 30 of the last 40 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season and he has lost 11 of the last 17 day games. JA Happ has lost 12 of the last 16 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has an ERA of 6.24 vs. Los Angeles over his career.

• Play Cleveland +110 over Tampa Bay----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Erik Bedard has lost 22 of the last 25 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 22 of the last 31 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Erik Bedard has lost 6 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Saturday and he has an ERA of 9.39 in home games this season.

• Play New York Yankees +130 over Milwaukee----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

CC Sabathia has won 45 of the last 76 games when pitching in the month of May and he has won 34 of the last 41 inter-league games. CC Sabathia has won 94 of the last 150 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has won 30 of the last 48 night games.

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BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Brooklyn +1.5 over Miami (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play San Antonio -1.5 over Portland (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Montreal +190 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play Anaheim +155 over Los Angeles (NHL TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Arizona +115 over Chicago White Sox (MLB TOP PLAY)

Chicago is 24-34 when playing on a Saturday
Chicago is 33-58 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Chicago is 23-31 when the line posted is between -100 to -150


10* Play San Diego +110 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)

Eric Stults is 17-8 when the total posted is 7 runs or less
Eric Stults is 9-3 vs. NL East Division Opponents the last three seasons
Eric Stults is 23-13 in night games the last three seasons

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5* Play Chicago Cubs +130 over Atlanta (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Texas +110 over Boston (MLB EXTRA PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, May 10

Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 vs spread at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.

Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game 2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Rip City, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.

Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, May 10

Boston got OT goal from rookie AHL callup to even series; team that scored first won all four games. Montreal won eight of last eleven games with Boston, taking won six of the last eight games played here. There were only five power plays in last two games. Montreal is 6-2 in playoffs this spring, 2-2 on road. Boston is 34-12 at home this season; they're 0-8 on power play in series. Over is 5-1-2 in Montreal's playoff games. Nine of eleven Boston goals in this series have come in third period or OT.

Los Angeles won six of its last seven games since being down 3-0 in San Jose series; visitor won all three series games, and last six games overall in this rivalry. Anaheim is 4-0 in Staples building this year, after losing previous five visits here. Ducks were 2-2 on power play in Game 3, after being 1-8 first two games. Over is 5-2-3 in their last ten games, under is 5-1-3 in last nine series games, but 1-3-2 in Ducks' last six games overall. League-wide, totals find the over to be 36-16-12 in the playoffs, 7-4-5 in this round.

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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

MLB | CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY
Play Against – Any team (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs
165-112 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.6% | 60.2 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

MLB | HOUSTON at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 83-51 (+40.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.0)

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EZWINNERS

1* Angels +100

1* Cubs +$130

1* Nationals +145

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UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
By Mark Kern

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva

Saturday, May 10 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)

5-Round welterweight bout
Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.

Each of these men will try to force the fight at his own style, but in the end, the favored SILVA is an explosive athlete, and that will help him get the victory.

The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva’s 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown’s 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown’s 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.

Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.



UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin
By Mark Kern

UFC Fight Night: Philippou vs. Larkin

Saturday, May 10 – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati, OH
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)

Middleweight bout
Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.

Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday’s fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.

LARKIN has a chance to show he is ready to make some noise in this weight class, and that will be exactly what he does with a convincing victory against Philippou.

“The Monsoon” Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.

Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn’t too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND/Washington under 7 -109


The Nationals made Tommy Milone look like Steve Carlton last night and got whacked 8-0. After scoring just 12 runs over their past six games, the Nats must now face Sonny Gray. Gray is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA. He’s whiffed 40 and walked 16 in 47 frames and his groundball rate of 56% is among the elite marks in the league. Gray’s second half skills last year were strong across the board, where the numbers say he was a star, if not yet an All-Star. He's young, he's good, and his ERA ever since he burst onto the scene is fully supported by his xERA. Strikeout/ground ball combo is a real plus and it sure doesn’t hurt that both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are on the rack.

Tanner Roarke went 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 54 innings for the Nats last season. It was a sterling debut from this former 25th round pick as he bounced between the rotation and the pen. Right-handed bats couldn't even manage ONE hit against his slider the 141 times he threw it. Roarke’s 4.17 ERA this season is the result of one really bad start. Prior to that, Roarke had a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after 33 innings. Roarke has struck out 31 in 37 frames, he has walked just 10 and his swinging strike rate of 15% in five of his six starts is further proof that he’s as good as his numbers say he is. Two outstanding young pitchers in an extreme pitcher’s park is very likely going to keep this one under the total.



Miami @ SAN DIEGO
Miami -108 over SAN DIEGO


The Padres surprised everyone last night by whacking Jose Fernandez and the Marlins 10-1 but chances are the Padres go back to being the lame hitting team that they are here. The Padres lineup consists of four players hitting under .186. San Diego is last in the majors in runs scored and team batting average. The 81 walks they’ve drawn is the worst mark in the NL and second worst mark in the league and the 35 double plays they’ve hit into is also one of the worst marks in the league. The Padres will now face one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game in Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was virtually unhittable in April (2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and those marks came with full skill support that includes 8.2K/9, 1.2BB/9, a 56% groundball rate and a WHIP of 0.99. Eovaldi’s 96-mph average four-seam velocity was the highest in the NL. This kid has figured it out big time and with his pure raw stuff we’ll keep riding him at prices like this in situations like this.

Meanwhile Eric Stults is a fraction of the pitcher that Eovaldi is. Stults’ is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's pinpoint control that makes him (barely) worth betting on when he’s a big dog. As a small dog or favorite, he’s one to avoid. In 33 innings, Stults’ has 15 strikeouts and a groundball/fly-ball split of 41%/33%. Over his last three starts, Stults’ line-drive rate was 38%. This is a guy that has to hope that all those balls put in play are hit right at someone. He’s also the type of pitcher that does not have the ability to get out of jams on his own. His 5.40 ERA and 1.77 WHIP are a direct reflection of his poor skills that must rely on luck to succeed. If Jose Fernandez was -130 over Tyson Ross last night, Nathan Eovaldi should be -150 over Eric Stults today but he’s not close to being so. That’s value.


L.A. Angels @ TORONTO
L.A. Angels +106 over TORONTO


1:05 PM EST. It’s sunny and warm in Toronto today, which means the Rogers Center roof will be open (although not confirmed) for the first time this season and that’s bad news for Blue Jays lefty, J.A. Happ. Happ made his first start of the year on Monday, throwing five scoreless innings but it’s all a mirage, as he walked four Phillies while striking out only two. He’s worked four innings out of the pen this season over three appearances in which he’s walked five and struck out four. Overall, covering 9 innings between three relief appearances and one start, Happ has walked 9, struck out 6 and has a WHIP of 1.61. Happ's ERA (1.93) should begin correcting towards his xERA (5.95) beginning with this afternoon's tilt with the Angels. Happ is coming off of a rough season in 2013 (4.56 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.2BB/9 in 93 innings) and is a fly ball pitcher with shaky control in a tough home hitters park, that becomes tougher when the roof is open.

Tyler Skaggs is also a risk and if he were favored today we might be playing the Blue Jays but he’s not. Skaggs went 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 39 innings for the Diamondbacks last year. He showed flashes of brilliance, but dominant start/disaster start split highlight his current feast-or-famine ways. Skaggs is still just 22, he still has the potential for a bright future and he’s still very much a work in progress. This year, he’s had four quality starts in six attempts. The Halos are 5-1 in Skaggs’ six starts and he’s pitched into the seventh inning or beyond in four in four of them. Blue Jays hitters have never seen Skaggs (with the exception of Jose Reyes 0-2 and Dioner Navvaro 1-4) and that, too, works to Skaggs’ advantage. Fading Happ is the real play here, as he’s just far too erratic to trust or invest in as a favorite.


Houston @ BALTIMORE
Houston +152 over BALTIMORE

Colin McHugh has 23 strikeouts and just four walks issued in 19 frames since being called up. His 2.94 ERA is supported by his exact same xERA of 2.94. He also has a strong 0.88 WHIP. McHugh brings consistent, solid performances and command of a deep arsenal to the table, so he could definitely stick around in the rotation for some time. Yeah, he may get whacked here because the sample size is way too small to make any projections but one thing we know for sure is that Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles cannot be priced in this range over anyone.

Gonzalez went 11-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 171 innings for the O’s last season. Gonzalez is not a young prospect, as TJS in 2009 ate up two years of his career. He earned a promotion with a 1.61 ERA in AAA in 2012 but MLB is another matter. Career xERA of 4.74 reflects his pedestrian skills. Gonzalez doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. Take this projection seriously because Gonzalez is the type of pitcher that will throw as many disasters as he will quality outings. He comes into this start with a 5.23 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after six starts covering 31 innings. One third of those starts were quality. The Orioles have dropped Gonzalez’s last three starts by scores of 9-3, 9-3 and 5-2 and a similar result here would be no surprise. Again, Gonzalez should never be in this price range and if we lose this one, so be it but we’ll continue to play the value and let the chips fall where they may.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports NBA

#723/724: Over Spurs: 208.5 (-105) 2.5*

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Fezzik

San Antonio/Portland under 209

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JEFF CLEMENT

7 Units Cubs vs Braves – Under 7

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Saturday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Sabathia a strong underdog play

San Diego Surges as Home 'Dog

The Padres entered Friday a +123 underdog against Jose Fernandez and visiting Miami, but erupted for a season high in runs en route to a 10-1 victory. San Diego is 4-1 in its last five games as a home dog and is listed at -102 for Saturday's rematch.

CC Setting New Trends

New York Yankees lefty CC Sabathia is 3-1 as an underdog so far in 2014 after going just 3-9 a season ago. Sabathia and the Yankees are installed as a +121 underdog for Saturday's showdown with the host Milwaukee Brewers.

Scherzer a Sure Under Bet

Detroit Tigers fireballer Max Scherzer has been one of the safest Under plays all season - going 1-6 O/U so far - and has gone Under in each of his previous two starts against Minnesota. Scherzer and the Tigers (-255, 8) host the Twins on Saturday afternoon; Minnesota is 21-12-1 O/U on the season.

Pitching Notes

* Chicago Cubs ace Jeff Samardjiza has been as hard-luck as they come, going 1-6 against the moneyline despite boasting a sensational 1.62 ERA and .285 opposing OBP. Samardjiza and the Cubs (+136, 7) face the host Atlanta Braves, who are 9-7 as a home favorite in 3014.

* Miami hurler Nathan Eovaldi has surrendered just 10 home runs in 25 starts spanning the previous two seasons, during which the Marlins are 13-12 against the moneyline and 9-13-3 O/U.

Hitting Notes

* Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer is hitting .373 over his previous 12 games, during which Kansas City is a sizzling 8-3-1 O/U. Hosmer and the Royals (-120, 6.5) visit the Seattle Mariners on Saturday.

* White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu is heating up again after a brief lull, racking up seven hits over his last 13 at-bats following a 5-for-27 slide. Chicago is 3-0 O/U during his resurgence after going 1-6 O/U during his slump; the White Sox (-121, 8.5) host Arizona on Saturday.

Total Streak

Pittsburgh Pirates (6-1-1 O/U): Pittsburgh coughed up 35 runs over a five-game stretch before righting the ship in its last three contests, surrendering just eight runs en route to three straight victories.

Prop of the Day

A narrow Pittsburgh victory looks like a strong bet Saturday; the Pirates are +375 to beat St. Louis (-121, 7.5) by exactly one run and +750 to prevail by two runs. Each of the Pirates' previous five victories have come by one or two runs.

Key Injuries

* The San Francisco Giants have lost first baseman Brandon Belt for approximately six weeks with a broken thumb suffered Friday night. Belt leads the team with nine home runs but was mired in an 8-for-42 slump; the Giants went 11-3 against the moneyline and 3-10-1 O/U over that span.

* Detroit Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez (blister) threw a bullpen session Friday and appears ready to rejoin the rotation May 18 against Boston. Sanchez has been a bit of a letdown since late last season, with the Tigers going 3-7 against the moneyline in his previous 10 starts.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Camden Yards may welcome the wind Saturday, with gusts out to center field expected to exceed 15 mph for Baltimore's showdown with Houston (+152, 8.5). Baltimore went 13-4 while teams combined to average nearly 9.5 runs per game under similar conditions last season.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 12-1 in umpire Adrian Johnson's last 13 games behind home plate. Johnson will call balls and strikes at the Rogers Centre as the Blue Jays (-115, 9.5) entertain the Los Angeles Angels.