5-11-14

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BeatYourBookie

SUNDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Indiana +4.5 over Washington (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Oklahoma City +5 over Los Angeles (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Minnesota +200 over Chicago (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play NY Rangers -115 over Pittsburgh (NHL TOP PLAY

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BeatYourBookie

SUNDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Kansas City +105 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Seattle is 43-52 in home games the last two seasons
Seattle is 52-64 in day games the last three seasons
Seattle is 25-31 when playing on a Sunday the last three seasons


10* Play Miami +105 over San Diego (MLB TOP PLAY)

San Diego is 51-67 after having won two of the last three games
San Diego is 33-42 vs. NL East Division Opponents
San Diego is 61-85 after batting .240 or worse over the last ten games


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5* Play LA Angels +100 over Toronto (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +105 over Chicago White Sox (MLB EXTRA PLAY)

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Baseball Crusher
Tampa Bay Rays -140 over Cleveland Indians
(System Record: 25-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 25-15

Hockey Crusher
NY Rangers -112 over Pittsburgh Penguins
(Playoff Record: system 14-1: overall 14-8, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 105-82-2

Basketball Crusher
Oklahoma City Thunder +5 over LA Clippers
(Playoff Record: 9-9-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 87-94-8

Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Gimnasia LP UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 567-21, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 567-481-84


Rest of Crusher's Plays Today:

Boston Red Sox -115 over Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Dodgers -160 over SF
Miami Marlins -110 over San Diego

Chicago Blackhawks -190 over Minnesota Wild
Chicago Blackhawks + Minnesota OVER 5
Pittsburgh + New York Rangers UNDER 5

Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Washington Wizards
Oklahoma City Thunder + Los Angeles Clippers OVER 215
Indiana Pacers + Washington Wizards UNDER 180

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Brandon Lang

10 Dimes: NY Mets -125 at home over the Philadelphia Phillies, 1:10 PM EST

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BEN BURNS

NHL Personal Favorite!
Chicago Blackhawks ML -190

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CHASE DIAMOND

10* NHL BEST BET
NY Rangers-110

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FantasySportsGametime

SUNDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Oklahoma City +5 over Los Angeles (NBA TOP PLAY)
3:30 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 21 of the last 27 games coming off a road win and they have won 47 of the last 65 games after allowing 105 points or more in their last game.Oklahoma City has won 32 of the last 45 games when playing on a Sunday and they are averaging 106 points a game this season.

50* Play Indiana +4.5 over Washington (NBA BONUS PLAY)

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NHL HOCKEY


50* Play Minnesota +200 over Chicago (NHL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Rangers -115 over Pittsburgh (NHL BONUS PL

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Baltimore -165 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 76 of the last 101 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 55 of the last 71 games when playing as a road underdog of +150 to +200.Houston has lost 74 of the last 103 day games and they have lost 128 of the last 180 road games.

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50* Play Detroit -175 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Atlanta -170 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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2Halves2Win NBA

Thunder vs Clippers - Over 215 (1*)

OKC Thunder+5 (1*)

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XpertPicks

SUNDAY BASEBALL

• Play Los Angeles Angels +100 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  1:00 PM EST

Jered Weaver has won 40 of the last 56 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has won 40 of the last 61 day games. Jered Weaver has won 76 of the last 115 games coming off a team win and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.86.

• Play Washington +130 over Oakland----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  4:00 PM EST

Gio Gonzalez has won 27 of the last 39 road games and he has won 27 of the last 39 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season. Gio Gonzalez has won 36 of the last 56 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 48 of the last 81 games coming off a team loss.

• Play Pittsburgh +100 over St. Louis----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh has won 66 of the last 116 games when playing in the 1^st half of the season and they have won 75 of the last 128 night games. Pittsburgh has won 93 of the last 170 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and they have won 67 of the last 111 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.

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XpertPicks

SUNDAY

• Play Oklahoma City +5 over Los Angeles (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  3:30 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 15 of the last 18 games after covering the spread in three of the last four games and they have won 43 of the last 63 games when the total posted is greater than 200 points.Oklahoma City has covered the spread in 27 of the last 44 games when playing on a Sunday and they are averaging 111 points over the last five games.

• Play Indiana +4.5 over Washington (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play Minnesota +200 over Chicago (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play New York -115 over Pittsburgh (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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Hot Chicks Picks / Britney DeLuca

In MLB take PHILADELPHIA +115
In MLB take WASHINGTON +120
In NBA take WASHINGTON -4.5

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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

MLB | PHILADELPHIA at NY METS
Play Against – Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
84-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.6% | 36.8 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

MLB | WASHINGTON at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 78-35 (+39.8 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)

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River City Sharps

3 UNITS - OAKLAND ATHLETICS (-130)

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE/N.Y. Yankees over 8 -105

Seven or under loses here but with these two starters going in a hitter’s park we’ll make that bet every time. Davis Phelps has 19 K’s in 17 innings but don’t believe it because most of those K’s came in relief and Phelps’ ridiculously low 5% swinging strike rate does not come close to supporting his strikeout totals. So, is Phelps a starter or reliever? You decide: Last two years as a starter: 4.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. As a reliever 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. Even out of the bullpen his upside is really limited by lack of a dominant pitch. Phelps’ fastball barely hits 90 mph. Low swinging strike with eroding control is a recipe for failure and it would be completely shocking to see Phelps get past the fifth inning here. Phelps was promoted to the starting role only because of Michael Pineda’s injury and because Vidal Nuno has been a disaster. Phelps is the next disaster waiting to happen.

Then there’s Matt Garza. Garza just keeps getting worse by the month. After facing a whole slew of weak hitting teams this season (St. Louis twice, Atlanta, the Cubbies, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Arizona), Garza has an ERA of 4.93. In three of his last four starts the final scores read: 8-3, 9-3 and 8-7. Garza has a 1.61 WHIP over his last five starts. His groundball rate is on the decline and that won't help with HRs at Miller Park (+23% LHB HR). He’s also walking more batters than usual with 11 issued over his last 27 innings. Frankly, there is nothing in Garza’s profile that suggests he’s ready to step it up and throw some gems. Instead, it’s more likely that his ERA and WHIP remain well below average because that is who Matt Garza is right now.


L.A. Angels @ TORONTO
TORONTO -1 +123 over L.A. Angels

Perception is everything. In this case, Jered Weaver is considered to be a better pitcher than Drew Hutchison but nothing could be further from the truth. Weaver’s history, W/L record, career ERA and familiarity with the betting public make him one of the game’s most overvalued pitchers. Weaver’s four-seam fastball velocity is on a steady decline and the result will be a large dip in K’s. Check out his four-seam fastball velocity trend now over four years including this season: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.5. If Weaver had a groundball pitch in his profile, he could re-invent himself now that he's in his 30s but that isn't the case. He has posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons, (this year it’s 48%) and his line drive rate trend suggests that he is being hit harder and harder: 16%, 19%, 21%, 22%. Weaver’s ERA has bested his xERA by a wide margin for years but we’re starting to see signs of it falling apart on him this year, as he’s had only three pure quality starts in seven attempts. Pitching in a hitter’s park against a very good offense like Toronto has will likely expose Weaver as the below average pitcher that he really is. Expect the Jays to take Weaver deep at least twice today.

Hutchison is truly the real deal. His surface stats (4.17 ERA) say he’s not an ace yet but stay tuned because a correction in his ERA is forthcoming. In hs last start against the Phillies at the Rogers Center, Hutchison made it through eight innings for the first time all season and seven of those innings were scoreless. Unfortunately, the Phillies jumped on him for five runs in the sixth inning, including a game-tying grand slam that cost Hutchison the shot at the win. Other than one pitch, he was outstanding again. Over seven starts, Hutchison has a 3.44 xERA. He's also managed to carry one of the best strikeout rates in the game, whiffing 44 hitters in 41 innings while walking just 11. That’s a strong 4-1 ratio. His swinging strike rate of 13% supports his K rate of 29.2% and now hitters have to consider his change-up as well. Hutchison only utilized his changeup 9.94% during the season's first four starts but he’s increased that to 17.23% over his last three appearances. Jays salvage the final game of this series and make Weaver look bad.


Chicago @ ATLANTA
Chicago +156 over ATLANTA

Aaron Harang is an instant fade when priced in this range. Harang owns a tidy 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after 42 innings but it’s all smoke and mirrors. While his base skills have looked good on occasion, his collective skills are below-average. A 30% hit rate, 89% strand rate and 0.4% hr/f have driven his surface stats. He's nothing more than an end-rotation stash and should be priced as such but he’s not. Harang has an awful 34% groundball rate, the same rate he had last season when he posted an ERA of 5.40. In June and July of last year, Harang’s hr/f rate was 21% so his 0.4% rate this year with virtually the same under the hood stats strongly suggests that he’s going to be taken yard several times over his next few starts. Warmer weather brings a better flight on the baseball and so far no pitcher has benefitted more by the cold weather than Harang. That’s all about to change over the next few weeks. Atlanta has won the first two games of this series but it’s not like its offense has woken up. The Braves scored five runs in the two games and remain one of the weakest hitting teams in the early going. Combine a weak hitting lineup with Harang starting and the result should not equal a team favored in this range.

Yeah the Cubbies are bad but like we always say, almost every team in this league will win 60 games and lose 60 games and this is one of those winnable one’s. Edwin Jackson has been on eight MLB teams in eleven years. Why he's often in demand: High innings pitched totals; a good health grade; solid hr/9. Why he's often deemed expendable: ERA swings; .467 lifetime win%; game-to-game volatility. Jackson has 35 K’s in 41 frames this season and his swinging strike rate of 11% supports that. The Cubs are 2-2 over Jackson’s last four starts. He dominated the White Sox in his last start by allowing just one run in seven frames while striking out nine and walking none. The Cubs lost that game so in reality, Jackson has given the Cubs a chance to win in five straight starts. He’s also been taken yard just one time all season. Sure, it's difficult to trust the ball with someone whose dominant start/disaster start split has been on a three-year collision course but Edwin Jackson is very capable of dominating any lineup when his focus is on. As a big pooch against Harang and this Braves lineup, the risk is worth the reward.