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Joe Gavazzi MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates (Rodriguez) at Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) (-135) 1:10 ET
4% Milwaukee (-135)
Though Braun has returned to the lineup, strong hitters, Gomez and Ramirez, remain on the shelf. That may have been a contributing factor in Milwaukee scoring just 1 run last night. But, that should not be a problem against Wandy Rod! Rodriguez has not pitched since April 19th. Prior to that time, he was 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA. His rehab starts at Triple A Altoona did not go well. In a pair of starts lasting 8 2/3 IP, Rodriguez allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with 6 BB. In 2 starts on the road this season, Rodriguez has a 9.00 ERA and a .341 BAA. He has always been a worse pitcher on the road than at home. That is confirmed by his 8.04 road ERA in 3 starts at this site. In a bounce back season, Gallardo has a 2.92 ERA. That includes a 2.55 ERA in 4 starts from this mound. History against the Pirates is good with a 2.63 ERA in 22 starts, including a 2.08 ERA in 4 recent starts. In a pair of daytime starts this season, Gallardo has yet to allow a run in 12 2/3 IP. Already this season against the Pirates, Milwaukee is 7-2, including 5-1 at this site. Pirates beat us last night 4-1, scoring 3 in the 9th against one of the best closers in baseball. But with a 150-115 bullpen index advantage, it is doubtful the late innings work against us today. On the basis of this analysis, it won’t be an issue.
Miami Marlins (Eovaldi) at San Francisco Giants (Cain) (-130) 10:15 ET
3% San Francisco (-130)
Miami exploded for a 13-3 victory last night against the Dodgers and Maholm, who pitched one of the worst games in MLB this season. That rare road victory boosted the Marlins record as traveler to 4-15, including 1-5 on this road trip. Consider that to be a major edge for the Giants, who have won 10/13 on this field of late and 15/20 overall. Cain (cut finger) returned from the DL with a solid outing in his last game. But, the 26-15 Giants have won just 1 of his 6 starts, where Cain is off to a career worst 0-3 start with a 4.25 ERA. Today, he starts from this mound for only the second time, where he has posted a 1.29 ERA. In 13 starts vs. Miami, Cain has a 3.07 ERA and .213 BAA. Eovaldi is an emerging starter for the Marlins with a 2.86 ERA and 48/10 KBB. Though that ERA is just 2.03 his previous 5 starts, he was ripped on the road in his last start by the weak hitting Padres. In that game, Eovaldi lasted just 5 IP (high-pitch count) allowing 2 runs and 11 BR in an eventual 9-3 defeat. Danger lurks for Eovaldi against this opponent. In a trio of starts against SF, Eovaldi has a 12.21 ERA and .382 BAA. The mysterious series record, which has seen Miami win 10/11 from the Giants, is the only reason we reduce the strength of this play. Expect that to change in this weekend series.
Baltimore Orioles (Chen) at Kansas City Royals (-130) (Ventura) 8:10 ET
4% Kansas City (-130)
Following an 11-4 run-up, the Orioles travel to Kansas City on a 4 game losing streak. The Royals enter on a 6-2 run keyed by their pitching staff. In this run-up, KC pitchers have a 1.88 ERA, backed by a bullpen which has not allowed an earned run in 19 1/3 IP. Not that Ventura will need much help! The emerging ace has a 2.34 ERA with sparkling 44/15 KBB. In 3 starts from this mound, opponents are hitting just .182 against Ventura. In his lone outing vs. Baltimore, a 5-0 KC victory, Ventura worked 8 innings with 8 Ks. The numbers for his mound opponent, Chen, are not as strong. In a trio of road outings, Chen has a 5.40 ERA and .302 BAA. Five starts against KC have resulted in a 4.60 ERA and .310 BAA. Knowing that KC is 19-2 when they score 4 or more runs is most reassuring now that we know the numbers of these starters.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Rodriguez) at Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) (-135) 1:10 ET
4% Milwaukee (-135)
Though Braun has returned to the lineup, strong hitters, Gomez and Ramirez, remain on the shelf. That may have been a contributing factor in Milwaukee scoring just 1 run last night. But, that should not be a problem against Wandy Rod! Rodriguez has not pitched since April 19th. Prior to that time, he was 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA. His rehab starts at Triple A Altoona did not go well. In a pair of starts lasting 8 2/3 IP, Rodriguez allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with 6 BB. In 2 starts on the road this season, Rodriguez has a 9.00 ERA and a .341 BAA. He has always been a worse pitcher on the road than at home. That is confirmed by his 8.04 road ERA in 3 starts at this site. In a bounce back season, Gallardo has a 2.92 ERA. That includes a 2.55 ERA in 4 starts from this mound. History against the Pirates is good with a 2.63 ERA in 22 starts, including a 2.08 ERA in 4 recent starts. In a pair of daytime starts this season, Gallardo has yet to allow a run in 12 2/3 IP. Already this season against the Pirates, Milwaukee is 7-2, including 5-1 at this site. Pirates beat us last night 4-1, scoring 3 in the 9th against one of the best closers in baseball. But with a 150-115 bullpen index advantage, it is doubtful the late innings work against us today. On the basis of this analysis, it won’t be an issue.
Miami Marlins (Eovaldi) at San Francisco Giants (Cain) (-130) 10:15 ET
3% San Francisco (-130)
Miami exploded for a 13-3 victory last night against the Dodgers and Maholm, who pitched one of the worst games in MLB this season. That rare road victory boosted the Marlins record as traveler to 4-15, including 1-5 on this road trip. Consider that to be a major edge for the Giants, who have won 10/13 on this field of late and 15/20 overall. Cain (cut finger) returned from the DL with a solid outing in his last game. But, the 26-15 Giants have won just 1 of his 6 starts, where Cain is off to a career worst 0-3 start with a 4.25 ERA. Today, he starts from this mound for only the second time, where he has posted a 1.29 ERA. In 13 starts vs. Miami, Cain has a 3.07 ERA and .213 BAA. Eovaldi is an emerging starter for the Marlins with a 2.86 ERA and 48/10 KBB. Though that ERA is just 2.03 his previous 5 starts, he was ripped on the road in his last start by the weak hitting Padres. In that game, Eovaldi lasted just 5 IP (high-pitch count) allowing 2 runs and 11 BR in an eventual 9-3 defeat. Danger lurks for Eovaldi against this opponent. In a trio of starts against SF, Eovaldi has a 12.21 ERA and .382 BAA. The mysterious series record, which has seen Miami win 10/11 from the Giants, is the only reason we reduce the strength of this play. Expect that to change in this weekend series.
Baltimore Orioles (Chen) at Kansas City Royals (-130) (Ventura) 8:10 ET
4% Kansas City (-130)
Following an 11-4 run-up, the Orioles travel to Kansas City on a 4 game losing streak. The Royals enter on a 6-2 run keyed by their pitching staff. In this run-up, KC pitchers have a 1.88 ERA, backed by a bullpen which has not allowed an earned run in 19 1/3 IP. Not that Ventura will need much help! The emerging ace has a 2.34 ERA with sparkling 44/15 KBB. In 3 starts from this mound, opponents are hitting just .182 against Ventura. In his lone outing vs. Baltimore, a 5-0 KC victory, Ventura worked 8 innings with 8 Ks. The numbers for his mound opponent, Chen, are not as strong. In a trio of road outings, Chen has a 5.40 ERA and .302 BAA. Five starts against KC have resulted in a 4.60 ERA and .310 BAA. Knowing that KC is 19-2 when they score 4 or more runs is most reassuring now that we know the numbers of these starters.
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