5-17-14

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Three big betting trends for the NHL playoffs conference finals

Only four teams remain in the quest for the Stanley Cup championship - and bettors will want to pay attention to certain trends that have highlighted conference finals in recent years.

Here are three trends betters should be on the lookout for as the Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks face off for a spot in the Stanley Cup final:

Under a (Slightly) Stronger Play

Despite oddsmakers making adjustments to account for the greater emphasis on defense, teams have still trended Under of late. While clubs are 18-19-4 O/U in conference finals over the past four years, three of the previous four series have favored the Under; only last year's Chicago-Los Angeles series (2-2-1 O/U) did not. Expect low totals this year, with three of the four finalists ranked in the bottom half in regular-season offense and all four in the top 12 in goals against.

Comebacks (Slightly) More Common

Teams that scored first in the regular season prevailed roughly 69.5 percent of the time. That number dips slightly when looking at the previous four conference finals, with teams that hit the scoresheet first winning 68.2 percent of those games. Recent comebacks have been more prevalent in the Western Conference; the teams scoring first are just 6-4 over the past two conference finals, compared to a 10-0 mark for Eastern Conference teams that score first.

Power Outages Expected

Don't expect to see many power-play goals in either conference championship series. Last year saw just three power-play goals scored in the nine conference final games; there were 11 the season before, but those came in 95 combined opportunities. Aside from the Vancouver-San Jose outlier series in 2010-11 - in which the teams combined for a mind-boggling 16 man-advantage goals in their five-game showdown - no other series since 2010 has had more than eight.

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Rangers-Canadiens matchup trending towards under
By ANDREW CALEY

The Montreal Canadiens host the New York Rangers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Saturday afternoon and thanks to two superb goaltenders the under has been a strong play in the matchup.

The under is 7-0-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams and is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings at the Bell Centre in Montreal.

The Rangers Henrik Lundquvist has had a slightly better postseason than the Habs Carey Price, posting 1.99 goals against average and a .939 save percentage compared to Price's 2.15 gga and .926 save percentage, but both net minders have been spectacular.

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RIVER CITY SHARPS

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has recently called his team’s toughness into question and the Cardinals responded Friday night with a 5-2 win over the Braves. Today, they try and make it two in a row over Atlanta as the Cards send Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Braves Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA) Miller had a pretty rough start to the season but has been really good for the Cards over his last four starts, posting a 2.86 ERA in those starts. He’s also gotten some really good run production as the Cardinals have scored 19 runs in Miller’s last three starts. Annother interesting trend here today is that the Cards are 9-1 in Miller’s last 10 home starts as a favorite. Last night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 1-3 vs. the Cardinals this season and we think their struggles continue this afternoon. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-119)

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks

MLB* CHICAGO WHITE SOX +110

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Philly Godfather

STRAIGHT BET [952] TOTAL u7+106 (ATL vrs STL) ( A HARANG -R / S MILLER -R ) 100
STRAIGHT BET [958] TOTAL u7½-111 (CIN vrs PHI) ( H BAILEY -R / C HAMELS -L ) 100

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sat:

Nationals w/ Gonzalez -150

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louisville slugger

kan city royals

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Diamond Dog Sports

Sides 43-38-0
+918

#951: Braves: +110 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller

#954: Cubs: +110 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Garza / Jackson


Totals 31-43-4
-2,589

#951/952: Under Cardinals: 7.0 (+100) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang / Miller

#971/972: Over Royals: 7.5 (-105) (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Norris / Duffy

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James Jones

There is 1 premium pick for 5/17/2014.

Tigers+111 over Red Sox

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Jason sharpe mlb

4*seatlle +100

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Doc mlb

3* seattle +100

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Miller is 5-0, 2.16 in his last six starts.
-- Jackson has a 2.75 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 2.95 in his last three starts,
-- Lyles is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts. Erlin is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two.
-- Kershaw is 2-0, 1.74 in three starts this season. Anderson allowed one run in 5.1 IP (74 PT) in his MLB debut.
-- Giants won Lincecum's last three home starts (1-0, 2.60).

-- Cosart is 1-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Kazmir is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts. Tomlin is 2-0, 2.12 in two starts this season.
-- Porcello is 5-0, 2.84 in his last five starts. Lackey is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four.
-- Duffy has a 1.80 RA in two starts, but no wins.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 4-2, 3.19 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Harang is 1-2, 8.10 in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 7.07 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 8.83 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 0-2, 5.16 in last four.
-- Phillies are 0-4 when Hamels starts (0-2, 5.32).
-- Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's road starts (0-3, 5.14).

-- Noesi is 0-2, 4.91 in three starts for Chicago.
-- Norris is 1-2, 5.48 in four road starts.
-- Deduno is 0-1, 5.73 in two starts this season. Elias has a 5.76 RA in his last five outings.
-- Texas lost last five Ross starts (0-4, 10.12).
-- Ramos is 0-1, 6.35 in his last three starts.


-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.85 in his last four starts. Phelps is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Harang 0-8; Miller 0-8
-- Garza 4-8; Jackson 3-8
-- Colon 3-8; Gonzalez 4-8
-- Bailey 3-8; Hamels 1-4
-- Erlin 3-7; Lyles 2-8
-- Kershaw 1-3; Anderson 0-1
-- Koehler 0-8; Lincecum 4-8

-- Noesi 1-3; Cosart 4-8
-- Kazmir 2-8; Tomlin 1-2
-- Porcello 4-7; Lackey 3-8
-- Norris 1-7; Duffy 0-2
-- Elias 1-8; Deduno 2-2
-- Buehrle 1-8; Ross 3-8
-- Ramos 2-6; Wilson 2-8

-- Volquez 3-7; Phelps 0-2

Totals
-- 11 of last 15 Milwaukee road games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Washington home games.
-- Nine of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Atlanta games. Over is 6-0-2 in Cardinals' last eight games.
-- 16 of last 19 San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Arizona games stayed under; last five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last seven Miami games went over the total.

-- Five of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 10-4 in Boston's last fourteen games.
-- Six of last eight Texas games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles' last eight road games.
-- Five of last seven Houston home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay road games stayed under.

-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Pirate road games.

Hot teams
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Washington won five of its last seven home games.
-- San Diego won five of its last seven games.
-- Giants won 16 of their last 22 games.

-- A's won seven of their last eight games.
-- Tigers won their last nine road games. Red Sox won four of their last six home games.
-- Baltimore won eight of its last ten road games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last five games.
-- Twins won five of their last six home games.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of last ten on road. Angels won six of their last eight games overall.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Phillies lost eight of last ten games. Reds lost five of last six on road.
-- Braves lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last seven games.
-- Miami lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Dodgers are 5-8 in last 13 games. Arizona lost 15 of its last 18 home games.

-- Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Texas lost seven of its last nine home games.
-- Kansas City lost six of last eight home games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last six road games. Astros lost 11 of their last 16 games overall.
-- Seattle lost four of last five games, but won seven of last ten on road.

-- Bronx lost six of its last seven home games. Pirates lost 11 of their last 14 road games.

Umpires
-- Atl-StL-- Last three Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Four of last five Gorman games stayed under.
-- NY-Wsh-- Five of seven Hickox games stayed under.
-- Cin-Phil-- Road team won three of four Baker games.
-- SD-Col-- Home side won five of Knight's last six games.
-- LA-Az-- Favorites won five of last seven Wolcott games.
-- Mia-SF-- Favorites won seven of eight Cederstrom games.

-- Chi-Hst-- Five of last six TBarrett games went over.
-- A's-Cle-- Five of six Layne games went over the total.
-- Det-Bos-- Six of seven Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Balt-KC-- All five Segal games went over the total.
-- Sea-Min-- Four of six Hernandez games went over.
-- Tor-Tex-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Scott games.
-- TB-LAA-- Favorites won five of last six Reynolds games.

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JEFF HOCHMAN

4* KC Royals -125 over Baltimore

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Play: 4* KC Royals -125 (Norris/Duffy)
Play Title: Jeff's 4* MLB Grand Slam play & Preakness Stakes
Preskness Stakes (G1) Race #11

3 units #8 Social Inclusion (W+P+S) ML: 5/1

Working in Social Inclusion’s favor is that he earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure during that record-setting performance.
California Chrome, whose top Beyer is 108, posted a winning time of 2:03.66 in the Derby, the slowest winning mark on a
Derby track labeled fast since 1974. Social Inclusion has a lot of talent and should be ready for a big effort at a nice price.

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Dave Essler | MLB Money Line

double-dime bet – 959 SDP (+110) vs 960 COL
Analysis: Why is there a .30-.40 line move in this game? Makes no sense, or does it. With the ineptness of the Padres against RHP this season, you’d not expect this, especially with Lyles being more of a groundball pitcher. But, Lyles has had two straight games over 100+ pitches. He did that a fair bit early last season, and only one time late and the second time he was simply lit up at home by the Reds. Perhaps at 23 the kid just can’t do that yet. And last season, at home, he was simply horrible, with a 6.60 ERA and a .297 BAA. I get that that was then and this is now, but there is no way he has turned into Sandy Koufax in the off-season. The current Padres roster has 22 hits in 57 at-bats (.386) against him, so something’s got to give. Erlins’ got a WHIP of 1.24 over the course of the season, which is simply quite good. The only game he was really torched was at Washington, but he too has thrown a lot of pitches, which is why I also lean to the over. If the lineups are stupid, I’ll probably add that, but in the end it’s the Padres bullpen that makes the difference in this game, IMO.

*I suppose if I could still get 7 (we can) I’d have to take the over in the Cubs game. Cannot fathom, even with marginal weather, that it’s a pitchers’ duel.

*I STILL can’t bring myself to take Atlanta, but sooner or later they’re going to go off on someone and they do have the better bullpen.

*I can’t fathom the Mets beating Gio, either. BUT, the total coming down is a bit concerning. We know the Nats don’t fare as well against RHP, but it’s Bartolo, who we’ve made a living fading. Have to think the Nationals win this, somehow.

*I really want to take the over (at 7 perhaps) in the Phillies game. Neither team hitting a lick lately, but neither starter get anyone out, and both SP’s can hit a little.

*Anderson has had one good game for the D-Backs. How do you fade Kershaw, who’s also like another stick in the order. I’d have to lean under, at least F5 because the Dodgers haven’t seen Anderson, and PERHAPS the D-Backs RL.

*Lots of early love for Lincecum, but I can’t fade Koehler, either. I’d love to find a way to take the under here, if for no other reason the Giants pen at home is that much better. Perhaps Fish RL with low total and reasonably priced.

*Some early money on Houston, and I do like Cosart at home (he’s from nearby League City) but when Houston stops hitting, they stop hitting. If you made me, Houston and/or over.

*Tough to fade the A’s, too, especially w/Kazmir pitching, and the Indians simply suck against LHP. Tomlin had a couple of good outings, but sooner or later………lean under.
Hard to imagine Boston losing two straight at home, but the Tigers are finding ways to win. If Porcello finds a way to keep the ball down, this game stays under, IMO.

*Again, sooner or later the Royals will score, but staying far away for the time being. If you made me, I would indeed take them. Duffy has been decent, and that’s all there is to that.
If the Twins had seen Elias at all, I’d take them, and still might. Seattle one of the better hitting teams on the road, so lean over there.

*As always, we’d have to fade Texas against a LHP, inasmuch as Buerhle always kills me and Ross has this season as well.

*I do not think Phelps should be -135 to the Pirates w/all their LHH’s in and a DH as well.

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POWER PLAY WINS

New York Yankees -130
Oakland A’s -140
Boston Red Sox -130
L.A. Dodgers -160