5-18-14

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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers


Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2.5, 181)


The Indiana Pacers have been waiting a year for a second chance at the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference finals after falling in seven games last spring. The Pacers had a rocky road getting back but will finally get their shot at the Heat when they host Game 1 on Sunday. Miami cruised through the first two rounds in a total of nine games while Indiana needed seven games to sneak past No. 8 seed Atlanta in the first round before fumbling past Washington in six.


The Pacers declared before the season that their intention was to secure the best record in the East to ensure that another seventh game against the Heat would be on their home court and stumbled into just that when Miami took its foot off the gas in the final week of the regular season. “Everything is behind us,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Like we said when we started the playoffs, (first-half record) 33-7 means nothing, How we struggled down the stretch and took a lot of criticism, that means nothing. That’s behind us and this is where we wanted to be.” Miami is gearing up for another physical battle and is not intimidated by starting on the road.


TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC


LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 2-point favorites, but were quickly bet to +2.5 and the total opened at 181 and has remained steady.


INJURY REPORT: Pacers - Andrew Bynum (Out, knee)


WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "The big question is which Indiana Pacer squad shows up in this series? Is it the same Pacers team that started the season 25-5 SU... or the recent squad that has struggled with a 10-13 SU record since March 3rd? Indiana lost Game 7 at Miami last year, so they fought hard to get the #1 seed this season. Home team is 12-2 SU in the past fourteen head-to-head meetings in this series." - Covers Experts' Steve Merrill


WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The Matchup everyone expected and that the Pacers wanted, after stumbling through the first two rounds of the playoffs the Pacers come into game 1 with 4 loses on their home court in these playoffs. We have instilled the Heat as favorites in Game 1 sitting as a 3 point favorite with 72% of the action on the Heat. The Heat are also heavy favorites at -420 to win the series." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag


ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami crushed Indiana 99-76 in Game 7 at home last season, putting an exclamation point on a back-and-forth series in which neither team managed consecutive wins. LeBron James averaged 29 points in that series and is coming off a semifinals against Brooklyn in which he averaged 30 points on 57 percent shooting. Chris Bosh hit a key 3-pointer in Game 4 against the Nets but is ready to get back to the physical challenge of the Pacers. “It’s back to a wrestling match now,” Bosh told ESPN.com. “For the latter half of the season, that’s how we’ve been playing. So for us, I think it will be a smooth transition.” Heat forward Udonis Haslem is expecting to get more time against a bigger Indiana front line and even center Greg Oden could be of use.


ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana wanted the matchup with the Heat but hasn’t been very impressive on its homecourt in the postseason. The Pacers dropped two at home to the Hawks in the first round and two to the Wizards in the second, including an embarrassing 102-79 Game 5 loss when they had a chance to clinch the series. David West picked the team up in the clinching game against Washington with a postseason-high 29 points, including eight in the decisive run to end the game. “It’s only going to get tougher,” West told reporters. “We’ve been talking about this series all year. We’ve had a different path than (Miami) had, but we’re here.”


TRENDS:


*Pacers are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall
*Over is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest
*Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
*Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Indiana


COVERS CONSENSUS: 69 percent bettors are on the Heat -2.5.

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Cappers Access


Pacers +2.5
Blackhawks -1.5 (+205)

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Betting trends for the NBA's conference finals

It may not have gone exactly according to plan, but the top-two teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences will do battle for spots in the NBA Finals.
Here are three betting trends to keep an eye on as the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder look to take the next step in their quest to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy:

Points A-Plenty

Over the previous four years, only one conference final series has trended to the Under; Boston and Orlando went 2-4 O/U in the 2010 Eastern Conference final thanks in large part to the Celtics' stifling defense. The other seven series in that span are a combined 26-14 O/U, including a 14-7 mark in the four Western Conference championship series. Three of the four remaining teams trended Over during the regular season; only the Pacers (35-44-3) favored the Under.

Long Series? No Problem

The Miami Heat have found themselves having to go the distance in back-to-back conference finals, but that didn't affect their ability to perform in the Finals. The Heat rolled to Game 7 victories in their previous two East finals by an average of 18 points, then went on to win the championship both times. It helped that Miami wasn't tested in either of its first two rounds the past two seasons; it needed 11 games to reach the conference final in 2012 and just nine games last season.

Fast Start = Slight Edge

Winning the first quarter is by no means a guarantee of a victory in the conference finals, but it certainly helps. Teams that outscore opponents in the opening 12 minutes are 25-19-2 in the conference championships, and have posted winning overall records in all four conference final series spanning the previous two years. Outliers punctuated the two seasons before that; teams seizing the lead after the first quarter went just 2-8 in 2011 after posting an absurd 9-2-1 mark in 2010.

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Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at St. Louis

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Braves look to salvage a victory today against a Cardinals team that is 2-10 in Jamie Garcia's last 12 starts during Game 3 of a series. Atlanta is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 18 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.700; Philadelphia (Lee) 14.870 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Over

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.101; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.710 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Floyd) 15.436; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.520 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Over

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.410; Cubs (Wood) 13.897 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); N/A

Game 909-910: Miami at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.113; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.549 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 13.831; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.722 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Roach) 14.849; Colorado (Nicasio) 16.170 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Under

Game 915-916: Oakland at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 14.707; Cleveland (Masterson ) 15.611 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.273; Houston (Peacock) 15.404 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-105); Over

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 14.298; Kansas City (Shields) 15.892 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-155); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.494; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.000 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Under

Game 923-924: Toronto at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.300; Texas (Martinez) 15.202 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.845; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 14.318 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.680; Boston (Peavy) 14.087 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 929-930: Pittsburgh at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.384; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.483 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Under

Game 931-932: Pittsburgh at NY Yankees (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.767; NY Yankees (Nuno) 14.300 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Connecticut at Minnesota

The Lynx play host to a Connecticut team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games against Western Conference opponents. Minnesota is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 20. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Connecticut at Minnesota (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 103.387; Minnesota 123.251 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 20; 163 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 15; 155 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15); Over

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.970; Los Angeles 121.327 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10 1/2; 151 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 161 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-8); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at Chicago

The Blackhawks open the Western Conference finals at home today where they are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Kings. Chicago is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.338; Chicago 13.892 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-160); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160); Under

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Today's NBA Picks

Miami at Indiana

The Pacers open up their Eastern Conference finals series at home today where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games versus the Heat. Indiana is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 18 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.591; Indiana 124.659 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 177 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3; 181 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under

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Round Three betting edges: Pacers solid as ATS dog
Marc Lawrence | May 18, 2014 |


One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2013-14 season winds its way to the finish line.


From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action since 1991, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…


DOWN BUT NOT OUT


You can blow out a good team once. Twice is not as likely.


As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 46-29-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.


Bring them in as a dog off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 15-5-1 ATS.


BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS


Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.


Teams with a better win percentage takings points off a loss are 22-17-1 ATS on the blind. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 21-12-1 ATS.


Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-5-1 ATS winning edge.


RUNNING ON EMPTY


You can hold a good team down, but not for long.


Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.


That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-6-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-3 against the number.


ITS WHAT’S TRENDING


Listed below are the best team trends for teams in Round Three of the post season.


Indiana: 17-8-2 ATS as a dog, including 4-1 ATS home.


Miami: 11-4 ATS off a loss, including 5-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.


Oklahoma City: 11-4 ATS when O/U total is 199 or greater, including 5-0 ATS off a SUATS loss.


San Antonio: 10-2 ATS away off a win, including 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win.


There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

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Kings at Blackhawks: What bettors need to know


Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks (-148, 5)


After failing last postseason, the Los Angeles Kings get another chance to knock off the Blackhawks as the teams begin their Western Conference final series in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Kings won four straight to oust St. Louis and outlasted San Jose in a seven-game set that saw the home team capture each contest before falling to Chicago, which won the conference final in five games and defeated Boston to earn the fifth Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. Los Angeles dropped all three contests at Chicago in last year's matchup and its first two at San Jose in this postseason's first-round series to extend its road losing streak to eight before winning five of its last six - including three of four at Anaheim.


The Kings have proven they never can be counted out as they became the fourth team in NHL history to overcome a 3-0 series deficit against the Sharks, then were down 3-2 to Pacific Division-champion Anaheim before posting a 2-1 triumph to even the set and trouncing the Ducks 6-2 in the seventh game. Chicago needed six games to dispatch both St. Louis and Minnesota, losing the first two before reeling off four straight wins against the Blues and claiming all three home games before eliminating the Wild with a 2-1 overtime triumph in Minnesota. The Blackhawks are 2-0 all-time versus the Kings, having also defeated Los Angeles in five games in their 1974 first-round matchup.


TV: 3 p.m. ET, NBC, TSN, RDS


ABOUT THE KINGS: Los Angeles was held to three goals or fewer in each of the first six games against Anaheim before erupting for six on Friday. Five different players recorded a goal and an assist apiece, including Anze Kopitar - who raised his league-leading point total to 19 and has registered at least one point in 13 of the Kings' 14 playoff contests. Marian Gaborik scored his league-best ninth goal and also set up a tally.


ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Marian Hossa and defenseman Brent Seabrook lead the club in scoring this postseason with 11 points apiece, but the most dangerous players on the roster remain captain Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. The dynamic duo has combined for seven of the team's game-winning goals, with Toews leading the NHL with four. Corey Crawford has been superb in net as he has posted a league-best 1.97 goals-against average.


TRENDS:


* Kings are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Blackhawks are 8-1 in their last nine Conference Finals games.
* Under is 22-8-3 in the last 33 meetings in Chicago.
* Kings are 1-4 in their last five Conference Finals games.


OVERTIME:


1. Los Angeles is 6-0 when facing elimination this postseason.


2. The Blackhawks have won nine of their last 11 meetings with the Kings, including all three in the 2013-14 regular season.


3. Los Angeles played nearly the entire second-round series against the Ducks without Ds Willie Mitchell and Robyn Regehr due to injuries. The latter saw just over 3 1/2 minutes of action in the opener before getting hurt.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Baltimore/KC under 7

Detroit +105

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports


Free Play Sun RED Sox -1115

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Rocketman Sports - Triple Dime NY Yankees (Morton/Kuroda) Listed (GAME 1) & Dime Angels

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to New York to take on the Yankees on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh is 17-23 overall this year while NY Yankees are now 21-19 overall on the season. Pittsburgh is 0-6 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.3 runs per game on the road this year and 3.1 runs per game in day games this season. Pittsburgh has a team batting average of only .203 when playing in day games this year. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.8 runs per game in interleague play this year. Charlie Morton is 0-5 overall this year, 0-2 on the road this year and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.66 ERA his last 3 starts. Kuroda is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in his seven starts vs Pittsburgh in his career. We'll play the NY Yankees for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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ANTHONY MICHAEL (Play of the Day)

#501 Miami Heat -2 (3:35 edt) ABC

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BOB BALFE

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -120
(Garcia/Floyd)