5-24-14

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Cappers Access

Pacers +6.5
Blackhawks +102
W. Sox +110

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, MAY 24TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#901 LA DODGERS @ #902 PHILADELPHIA - 3:05 PM
•Dodgers RH Dan Haren (5-2, 3.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.235) - Haren has given up three home runs in his last two starts after going four straight outings without issuing a long ball. He issued two homers Sunday against Arizona, which reached Haren for a season high-tying five runs and 10 hits. Haren's career numbers against the Phillies include a 1-4 record with a 4.67 ERA in nine starts.

--KEY STAT: HAREN is 4-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.3, OPPONENT 5.2.

•Phillies RH David Buchanan (NR) - Buchanan was terrific over his first seven starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before struggling in his last two outings. In his last start, Buchanan needed 45 pitches to get through the first inning and issued four runs before getting pulled. "He hasn't been dominant," Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro said. "But he's been consistent and he's winning."

#903 COLORADO @ #904 ATLANTA - 4:10 PM
•Rockies RH Juan Nicasio (4-2, 4.03 ERA, WHIP: 1.305) - Nicasio has pitched well in four May starts, going 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and leaving his last outing Sunday against San Diego with a lead before getting a no-decision. He allowed four earned runs on nine hits against the Padres, but has surrendered just three earned runs in his other starts this month (18 innings). Nicasio has struggled against Atlanta in his career, allowing 20 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings while going 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA.

--KEY STAT: NICASIO is 20-9 OVER (+10.8 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NICASIO 5.4, OPPONENT 5.4.

--NICASIO is 18-6 OVER (+12.3 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NICASIO 5.9, OPPONENT 5.0.

•Braves LH Mike Minor (2-2, 3.80 ERA, WHIP: 1.352) - Minor has won his past two starts, allowing two earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in victories over San Francisco and Milwaukee. He threw 112 pitches in his last start against the Brewers on Monday, giving up two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings. Minor won both his starts against Colorado last year and is 3-0 lifetime against the Rockies, posting a 3.96 ERA.

--KEY STAT: MINOR is 17-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MINOR 4.8, OPPONENT 2.1.

#905 MILWAUKEE @ #906 MIAMI - 4:10 PM
•Brewers RH Wily Peralta (4-3, 2.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.231) - Peralta managed only one victory in his last five starts, but has not allowed more than three runs in any of them and went at least seven innings in three. The Dominican Republic native began the season 3-0 in his first four turns, giving up only six earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. Derek Dietrich has a homer in four at-bats against Peralta, who is 1-0 in three outings versus Miami with a 2.70 ERA.

--KEY STAT: PERALTA is 20-7 UNDER (+11.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PERALTA 2.6, OPPONENT 3.8.

•Marlins RH Jacob Turner (0-2, 6.59 ERA, WHIP: 1.573) - Turner has made four starts since returning from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss about a month and yielded 16 runs (15 earned) in 21 1/3 innings. The 23-year-old is 5-5 with a 5.00 ERA at home and 0-11 with a 4.09 ERA in 18 starts on the road in his career. Jean Segura is 3-for-6 and Carlos Gomez has homered against Turner, who is 0-1 in two starts versus Milwaukee.

#907 ARIZONA @ #908 NY METS - 4:10 PM
•Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (2-2, 4.02 ERA, WHIP: 1.213) - Collmenter is 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA in his last five starts after allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. However, he has failed to get through six innings in three outings this month after doing so in his final three starts in April. Collmenter gave up three runs in four innings in a loss to the Mets in his first start of the season April 14 and is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in seven career games (two starts) against New York.

•Mets RH Zack Wheeler (1-4, 4.53 ERA, WHIP: 1.571) - After posting four quality starts in five outings overall in April, Wheeler has endured an up-and-down May, going 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA while producing 15 walks and 15 strikeouts. He has not made a start at home since April 25, when he struck out 10 and allowed a run in six innings. Wheeler allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings opposite Collmenter on April 14 to pick up his first win of the year.

--KEY STAT: WHEELER is 12-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WHEELER 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8.

--WHEELER is 9-1 OVER (+8.0 Units) after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WHEELER 5.1, OPPONENT 5.3.

#909 ST LOUIS @ #910 CINCINNATI - 7:15 PM
•Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (0-0, 5.14 ERA, WHIP: 0.714) - Garcia left his first start since May 17, 2013 with a 5-4 lead before Atlanta rallied for a 6-5 victory Sunday. "He threw the ball well, very well," St. Louis manager Mike Matheny told reporters after the 27-year-old Mexican allowed four runs and five hits while striking out five in seven innings. "...When he was down, staying out of the middle, staying ahead in the count, he was making very very good pitches and getting some quick outs." Garcia is 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts) versus Cincinnati.

--KEY STAT: GARCIA is 21-30 (-22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARCIA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.8.

•Reds LH Tony Cingrani (2-3, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.383) - Cingrani allowed four runs, seven hits and three home runs - all career highs - in six innings of an 8-3 loss at Philadelphia on Sunday. The 24-year-old Evergreen Park, Ill., native faced the Cardinals in his first two starts of 2014, receiving a no-decision after yielding two hits and striking out nine in seven shutout innings and suffering the loss when he allowed three runs in four innings. Cingrani, who recorded 39 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings this season, is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three home starts.

#911 WASHINGTON @ #912 PITTSBURGH - 7:15 PM
•Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (3-3, 3.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.288) - Strasburg has quieted some of the concerns about his slow start by posting six straight quality starts, but he has only two wins over that stretch. He held Cincinnati to two runs over seven innings last time out but didn't factor in the decision in a 4-3 loss. Strasburg is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts against Pittsburgh, and the loss came in a 4-2 defeat last season in which he struck out 12 and allowed one run and two hits in eight innings.

--KEY STAT: STRASBURG is 7-18 against the run line (-12.8 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.2, OPPONENT 3.8.

--STRASBURG is 9-22 against the run line (-14.4 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.0, OPPONENT 3.7.

--STRASBURG is 0-9 against the run line (-10.5 Units) against National League Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 2.8, OPPONENT 4.4.

•Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (4-3, 3.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.329) - Cole is coming off a solid outing in a road win over the New York Yankees in which he struck out eight and allowed three runs over six innings. The 23-year-old has racked up six or more strikeouts in six of his nine starts, including four straight outings. Cole is 2-0 at home this season and 10-5 at PNC Park in his young career.

#913 CHICAGO CUBS @ #914 SAN DIEGO - 10:10 PM
•Cubs LH Travis Wood (4-4, 4.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.335) - Wood has been horrible on the road this season, going 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA in four such outings. He has excelled at home and held Milwaukee to two runs and two hits in seven innings in a 4-2 victory last Sunday. Wood is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against San Diego.

•Padres RH Billy Buckner (NR) - Buckner will be recalled from Triple-A El Paso to start Saturday’s game. The Padres are shy on starters with Andrew Cashner and Robbie Erlin on the disabled list with elbow injuries, which led to the recall of Buckner (3-2, 2.89 at El Paso). The 30-year-old has a 7-11 career record and 6.07 ERA while spending time with the Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels.

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

Soccer plays for the weekend

Tottenham
Liverpool

Seattle Sounders
New England - Under 2.5
Real Salt Lake

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks

NBA* MIAMI - OVER 182

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NBA

Saturday, May 24

Over is 44-32 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 27-49 in playoffs this season.

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Hondo’s incredible run of ineptitude dragged on Friday night when the Cards failed to carry out their mission in Cincinnati, causing the deficit to expand to 1,190 belles.

Saturday: Mr. Aitch will join forces with the Native Americans in Baltimore — 10 units on Ubaldo and the Birds to come up a hair short. Also, 10 on Shoemaker to help the Angels clog up the Royal offense.

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Chase Diamond

9* Houston Astros -105

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FEZZIK FOCUS

WNBA - 655 Atlanta vs Chicago - OVER 152

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Paul Leiner

100* Royals -110

100* Indians -110

50* Rays -140

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UFC 173 Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas and the MGM Grand Garden Arena for a 12-fight card Saturday night. In the UFC 173 main event, Renan Barao (32-1-0-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will defend his bantamweight belt against T.J. Dillashaw.

Most betting shops have the champ installed as an expensive -800 favorite (risk $800 to win $100), while Dillashaw is a +550 underdog (risk $100 to win $550). The total for 'over/under' wagers is 4.5 rounds (-180 to back the 'under', +150 for the 'over').

Barao has been laying waste to the 135-pound division since entering the promotion. The Brazilian hasn't tasted defeat in nearly a decade and is off his second win over Urijah Faber by first-round knockout at UFC 169.

Dillashaw (9-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a 28-year-old wrestler who fights out of the Team Alpha Male camp in Sacramento. He has won five of his last six fights with the lone defeat coming by split decision against Raphael Assuncao last October.

Prediction: Barao is clearly too expensive to bet at the enormous straight price. I think he wins a unanimous decision, but he could get the finish. If you win most of your bets going into the main event, maybe take a shot at the 'over' for the decent payout? I'll probably be on the sidelines for this one.

In the co-main event, Daniel Cormier (14-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) will put his unbeaten record on the line against Dan Henderson. The winner will most likely get the next crack at the light heavyweight belt against the winner of Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson.

Most books are listing 'DC' as a -900 'chalk,' with 'Hendo' available for a +575 return (risk $100 to win $575). The total is 2.5 rounds ('over' -140, 'under' +110).

This will be Cormier's second fight in the 205-pound loop. He was scheduled to make his light-heavyweight debut against Rashad Evans, but 'Suga' had to pull out due to a knee injury less than two weeks before the fight. Therefore, the UFC pulled former Penn St. wrestler Patrick Cummins off the street and into the Octagon.

Cormier needed only 79 seconds to earn a first-round KO over Cummins at UFC 170. Prior to the win over Cummins, Cormier beat Frank Mir and Roy Nelson in a pair of heavyweight scraps. Before joining the UFC, Cormier won the Strikeforce heavyweight strap thanks to wins over Antonio 'Bigfoot' Silva and Josh Barnett.

Henderson (30-11 MMA, 7-5 UFC) ended a three-fight losing streak by knocking out Shogun Rua in the third round of their rematch in Brazil on March 23. Rua was dominating in the first two rounds and nearly finished Henderson, but the 43-year-old former Olympic wrestler landed a vintage right-hand 'H-Bomb' that floored Rua. Henderson pounced and finished the fight with additional strikes.

Prediction: I think Cormier most likely wins, but I'd probably bet Henderson as a +500 underdog or better against a lion. Hendo's one-punch KO power is worthy of a small wager on the underdog here.

In the welterweight division, 'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler and Jake 'The Juggernaut' Ellenberger will collide in the third fight on the pay-per-view card. Most spots have Lawler as a -230 'chalk,' leaving Ellenberger as an underdog in the +180 range. The total is 2.5 rounds (-110 either way).

Lawler (22-10-0-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) is coming off a 25-minute slugfest against Johny Hendricks, who won the vacated 170-pound belt by unanimous decision in an epic thriller. Both fighters stood in the pocket and banged away for the first 4.5 rounds. Hendricks narrowly won Rounds 1 and 2, but Lawler clearly took Rounds 3 and 4 and nearly finished 'Bigg Rigg' on multiple occasions.

In the fifth and deciding stanza, Hendricks scored a takedown midway through the round and kept top position for the remainder of the bout. Lawler earned the title shot by winning his first three fights in his second tour of duty in the UFC. He beat Josh Koscheck, Bobby Voelker and Rory MacDonald.

Ellenberger (29-7 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is coming off the most disappointing performance of his career last summer against MacDonald, who won a unanimous decision in a snoozer. Both fighters talked trash galore going into the bout, but they were both reluctant to engage for the entire 15 minutes.

The winner of this bout will be in the mix for a title shot at 170.

Prediction: I like Lawler to prevail. The price is a little expensive, though, so I prefer a play on 'under' 2.5 rounds at the -110 price. I think Lawler wins by second-round KO.

The first two fights on the pay-per-view card feature 'Jamie Varner (-190) vs. James Krause (+155) and 'Takeya Mizugaki (-165) vs. Francisco Rivera (+140).

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Blackhawks at Kings: What bettors need to know

Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings (-121, 5)

By earning a split in the Windy City, the Los Angeles Kings wrested away home-ice advantage from the reigning Stanley Cup-champion Chicago Blackhawks. The resilient Kings look to ride the momentum of their five-goal outburst in the third period when the teams reconvene at Staples Center for Game 3 of the Western Conference final on Saturday. Jeff Carter highlighted the offensive display by recording his second career playoff hat trick and adding an assist in Los Angeles' 6-2 triumph over Chicago on Wednesday.

The loss at United Center was the first this postseason for the Blackhawks, who have won three of their last four visits to Staples Center - including a split in last season's conference final. "We have to go out there and win a game in L.A., for sure," Ben Smith told the Chicago Sun-Times. "It's something we've done before (and being able to) draw from that experience is nice." Defenseman Nick Leddy, who scored on Wednesday, collected a goal and an assist as the Blackhawks posted a 5-3 triumph over the Kings in the teams' lone regular-season meeting in Los Angeles on Feb. 3.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Despite Wednesday's lopsided final result, coach Joel Quenneville refused to hang his head at the team's predicament. "We've been in some tough sports," Quenneville said. "Look at last year - down 2-1 to Boston (in the Stanley Cup final), down 3-1 to Detroit (in the second round), down 2-0 to St. Louis (in this year's first round) and 2-2 in the Minnesota series - there's a lot of hockey left in this series." Chicago has scored a power-play goal in three of its last four contests, although it yielded a pair after killing off 44-of-48 short-handed situations entering Game 3.

ABOUT THE KINGS: Carter's young linemates also are enjoying strong series as Tyler Toffoli has scored in each contest while rookie Tanner Pearson has notched three assists. The trio combined on a backbreaking goal that gave Los Angeles a 4-2 lead as the Chicago players appeared uncertain if the puck had sailed into the netting. "I don't think they knew where it was," Pearson said. "So I saw it, I knew (Toffoli) would be in the slot somewhere, so I just passed it out there and fortunately he was there and put it in."

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.
* Blackhawks are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.
* Home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Under is 16-7-3 in the last 26 meetings.

OVERTIME:

1. Los Angeles' Dean Lombardi joined Montreal's Marc Bergevin and Anaheim's Bob Murray as finalists for the NHL General Manager of the Year Award, the league announced on Friday.

2. Chicago expects to see the return of C Andrew Shaw, who has been sidelined for the last seven games. He suffered a leg injury when he was on the receiving end of a check from Minnesota D Clayton Stoner during the second-round series.

3. The Kings dominated in the faceoff circle (43-of-70) in Game 2 as Cs Anze Kopitar and Jarret Stoll combined to win 29-of-43 draws.

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | INDIANA at MIAMI
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) after 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games
126-75 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.7% | 43.5 units )
11-6 this year. ( 64.7% | 4.4 units )

NBA | INDIANA at MIAMI
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less
82-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.2% | 37.4 units )
8-4 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.7 units )

NBA | INDIANA at MIAMI
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line in a playoff series which is tied, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
198-119 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 67.1 units )
7-14 this year. ( 33.3% | -8.4 units )

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NBA

Indiana at Miami

After being taken behind the woodshed spanked 107-96 as a 1 1/2-point road favorite in the opener the 'Three Amigos' nipped Pacers 87-83 Tuesday as two-point favorites to even the series. Now the series shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday. Home-court advantage in the playoffs has served Miami well since Wade, James, Bosh joined forces posting a smart 35-7 (26-16 ATS) record including 5-0 (3-2 ATS) this year. Miami's record at home is impressive, but basketball handicapping demands digging a little deeper to get a better take on the situation. To that end, those number pale compared to the what Indiana brings to the table. The Pacers, a resilient group have reeled off an 11-1 (10-2 ATS) streak following a post season loss including 3-0 SU/ATS running the hardwood vs Heat.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BALTIMORE) where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after 3 straight games where they had 12 or more hits
36-10 since 1997. ( 78.3% | 23.6 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MINNESOTA at SAN FRANCISCO
MINNESOTA is 17-11 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in Road games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)

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EZWINNERS

2* Rockies +135

2* A's -119

2* Twins +145

1* D-Backs +1.5 -210