5-25-14

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WORLD CLASS CAPPER

MLB- 3* Red Sox moneyline @ +116
Starts at 1:30 PM est

MLB- 3* Royals vs Angels – Over 8 runs @ -110
Starts at 3:30 PM est

NBA- 3* Spurs vs Thunder – Over 208 points @ -110
Starts at 8:30 PM est

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Shaker’s Shorts

#980 San Francisco Giants – Team Total OVER 4 -115

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Indian Cowboy

NBA

8* Under 208.5

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allegheny analysis
under rangers

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Sheeps Moves
1962 Over 3 1/2 (-130) Col-Atl (1st 5) $1000
962 Over 7 1/2 (+100) Col-Atl $1000

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Larry Ness' 10* West Conf Finals G.O.Y. (9-3 NBA 10*s s/May 1)
My 10* Conference Finals (West) Game of the Year is on the OKC Thunder at 8:30 ET.


It didn't take long for the Spurs to erase the bad taste in their mouths from a 4-0 regular season series sweep at the hands of the Thunder. Game 1 win wasn't a cake walk but the Spurs did take a seven-point lead into the 4th quarter and then put away the Thunder by winning the final quarter 33-23, for a 122-105 win. The Spurs ordinarily own a huge edge in the depth department against the Thunder (in fact, against most teams) but with Serge Ibaka sidelined, it seems like Durant and Westbrook need to carry the ENTIRE load for OKC.


The Thunder's two stars were very good in Game 1 but Durant's 28-9-5 and Westbrook's 25-5-7 were not enough to overcome the fact that OKC's remaining three starters totaled just FIVE points. OKC's reserves did outscore San Antonio's 47-43 but it was not nearly enough. The Spurs shot a blistering 57.5% as a team, including 9 of 17 on threes. Duncan was terrific (27 & 7), Ginobili had 18 off the bench and Parker, seemingly not very limited by a hamstring injury, added 14 points and 12 assists. Leonard continued his excellent postseason with 16 points while Green made 6 of 7 FGs for 16 points plus as always, played great perimeter defense (he held the Thunder to 2-of-16 shooting when defending their players).


The Thunder entered Game 2 knowing they were undermanned without Ibaka but talked as if they were undaunted and undeterred. OKC led 26-24 after the first quarter and was up 36-33 in the second when the Spurs blitzed them with a 43-14 run spanning the second and third quarters! San Antonio would win the second quarter 34-18 and the third 33-18, on the way to a second consecutive dominating win, 112-77!


Durant and Westbrook each only had 15 points, shooting a combined 13 of 40 from the floor (32.5%), including 1 of 9 on threes. OKC's remaining three starters were again BRUTAL, combining for four points (2 of 9 shooting), while the Thunder connected on only TWO of 20 three-pointers as a team. The 77 points tied the Thunder's fewest-ever in a playoff game since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City in 2008 (also scored 77 points in 2012 vs the Lakers).


San Antonio's starting guards, Parker (22) and Green (21) led the way, as Green made SEVEN, three-pointers Big men Duncan (14 & 12) and Splitter (9 & 10) had solid games while Leonard, who has had a terrific postseason, was able to have a rare quiet game (played just 16 minutes, scoring four points), with no damage. The Spurs are now 7-1 SU and ATS since their Game 7 blowout of the Mavs, winning those seven games by an average margin of 21.9 PPG.


We are now on the eve of Game 3, after two dominating San Antonio wins, by an average of 26.0 PPG. However, the veteran Spurs are hardly willing to rest on their laurels, despite the consecutive blowouts. Let's NOT forget that Oklahoma City also dug itself a 0-2 'hole' in the 2012 Western Conference finals against the Spurs before rallying to win the next four games. Power forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both referenced the collapse of two years ago in their respective sessions with reporters on Friday. “We cannot take anything for granted,” Ginobili said. “We had a great start and ended up losing the series. We are playing a team that is so talented and has so many way of scoring – it is never over until you win the fourth game. We know that and most of us were on that team.”


Earlier this week, OKC head coach Scott Brooks made it clear Serge Ibaka wasn’t going to return during the series but the situation quickly changed with the Thunder landing in a dire situation. OKC has been caught in a severe mismatch against Duncan without Ibaka’s presence. Out of nowhere, the Thunder have upgraded Ibaka (calf) from out, to day-to-day.


General manager Sam Presti cautioned that the announcement doesn’t mean Ibaka is playing in Game 3. “I think it’s important, when you look at this, to recognize that we’re not saying that he’s playing but what we’re really trying to indicate is that the information is telling us that we can’t rule him out,” Presti told reporters on Friday. “He’s still out,” Brooks told reporters. “We’re still focusing on trying to beat the Spurs without him playing, and that has not changed. I know he’s listed as day-to-day but, still, he is out until I’m told differently. All of our attentions and game planning is to focus on ways to play much better than we did last game.”


So what does it all mean? I'm NOT counting on Ibaka to make a "Willis Reed-like" return (how many of you out there actually remember the 1970 NBA Finals?) but I am betting that OKC "comes to play" here in Game 3 and no matter how well-aware the Spurs say they are regarding a "let down," I believe it's almost inevitable.


Durant and Westbrook are off BRUTAL efforts and are almost a "GUARANTEE" to bounce back while it's IMPOSSIBLE for Collison, Perkins and Sefolosha to play any worse. Also, don't forget about players like Butler, Fisher and Jackson (listed in alphabetical order), each one of whom is capable of contributing a 15-point game!

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Goodfella triple dime.

REDS ML (+1.5)

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Prediction Machine
Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

511	8:30 PM	SA	@OKC	2.5	-2.3	50.5	$0		Analyze	Live

Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

512	8:30 PM	@OKC	SA	105.7	103.4	57.2	Analyze	Live

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

512	8:30 PM	SA @ OKC	208.5	209.0	Over	50.6	$0		Analyze	Live