5-27-14

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Umpire Streakers:

[1977] MIL/BAL – ’1st 5′ – Over 4.5 (+100)
[1962] SF/CHC – ’1st 5′ – Under3 (+100)
[956] NYM/PIT – Under 8 (-110)
[976] ATL/BOS – Under 7 (+100)
[969] MIN/TEX – Over 7 (-105)

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Tampasports

washington-m.line -best bet

ny mets-m.line

milwaukee-m.line

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 5/27

4-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) over New York Mets (7:10pm EST)


4-unit Play Take #967 Houston Astros (+125) over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST).


4-unit Play Take #976 Atlanta Braves (-105) over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST)

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball 5/27

5-Unit Play. #515. Take San Antonio +2.5 over Oklahoma City (Tuesday @ 9pm est)

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA 5/27

3-Unit Play. #601. Take Under 140 Seattle vs. New York (Tuesday @ 7:05pm est)

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- Can we start trusting Jered Weaver again? He started the season 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA, but he has come up big for the Angels of late, going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA over his past seven turns. He's helped give the Angels some stability, the bats have helped him get leads, and his rating has increased each time out.

Tonight Weaver takes the mound at Seattle where he's a -130 favorite over rookie left-hander Roenis Elias (3-3, 3.68). While Weaver comes off his best outing of the season, a complete-game 2-1 win over the Astros, the Mariners have been a thorn in his and the Angels' sides. With their 5-1 loss Monday night, the Angels are now 1-5 this season against Seattle and have scored only 14 runs with a .168 average in those six match-ups.

Over Weaver's last six starts against Seattle, he's gone 1-5 with a 4.05 ERA. His last outing against them was the Angels' season opener on March 31 where Weaver gave up four runs in 6.1 innings in a 10-3 loss. However, his last outing at Safeco Field turned out very well, a 7-1 win on Aug. 25 in which he allowed one run and three hits over eight innings.

So which Weaver shows up today? And will the bats finally show up against Seattle? We're talking about an Angels squad that is fifth in runs scored (4.8 per game) and fourth in slugging percentage (.419).

The best play might be to side with UNDER 7 runs. There are a several trends pointing to this game being low-scoring for both teams. In Elias' 10 starts this season, the Mariners have stayed UNDER in seven of them. The Angels have stayed UNDER in seven of their past nine road games and these two teams have stayed UNDER in six of their last eight meetings at Safeco Field.

Tuesday selections:

Angels/Mariners UNDER 7 (EV)

Blue Jays (Buehrle) -113 vs. Rays

Pirates (Volquez) +104 at Mets

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SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEE

Matt Garza continues to falter. Signed to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way back and it’s now getting worse. With his 2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced here.

Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins. Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.


Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY

The Astros have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66 innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate. One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off. Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra appeal.

The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits in an inning to score. The Royals have two wins over their past seven games and will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38 IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skills support that include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches: slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros to skip it.


ARIZONA/San Diego Over 9

Arizona has won three in a row at home while scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely) playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road, where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair share here.

Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore, current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we should see some crooked numbers against both.

Pass NBA & NHL

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Tuesday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Interleague Scoring Aplenty

Monday's interleague action was a perfect 3-0 O/U, as Boston (+121, 7) rallied to beat Atlanta 8-6, Baltimore (+138, 7.5) stormed back to defeat Milwaukee 7-6 and the New York Yankees (+164, 7) held off St. Louis 6-4. The Over is now 5-1 in the last six interleague games.

Underdogs Have Their Day

The day's five biggest underdogs all prevailed on an unusual day in the majors. In addition to the Orioles and Yankees pulling out wins, Houston (+170), Seattle (+136) and Miami (+130) were all victorious.

In Hudson They Trust

San Francisco (-178, 6.5) is the consensus pick of the day, with 77 percent believing Tim Hudson and the Giants will prevail over Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs. Hudson is 6-2 against the money line for the season and has put together five straight quality starts.

Pitching Notes

* Toronto left-hander Mark Buehrle has been the top value pitcher in the majors through the first two months, earning $871 with the Blue Jays going 9-1 S/U in his 10 starts. Buehrle and the Blue Jays (-116, 8.5) face Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Cobb, who is at a disappointing $-67 for the season.

* Texas ace Yu Darvish is 5-1 against the moneyline and 5-1 O/U in his previous six road starts dating back to the end of last season. Darvish and the Rangers (-143) visit the Minnesota Twins and veteran right-hander Phil Hughes on Tuesday.

Hitting Notes

* Toronto first baseman Edwin Encarnacion slammed his 13th home run of the month in Monday's 10-5 win over Tampa Bay, giving him a franchise-record 13 homers in May. The Blue Jays have soared on the strength of Encarnacion's power surge, going 18-7 against the moneyline and 14-10-1 O/U for the month.

* The Oakland Athletics pounded five home runs en route to a 10-0 thumping of Detroit on Monday, improving to 7-1 against the moneyline in their last eight home games and 7-2-1 O/U in their last 10 at O.co Coliseum. The A's (-117, 6.5) resume their series with the Tigers on Tuesday night.

Totals Streak

Cincinnati Reds (7-2 O/U): The Cincinnati pitching staff has labored of late, surrendering four or more runs in six of its last nine games. The Reds are 22-25-2 O/U for the season entering Tuesday's game against host Los Angeles (-164, 6.5).

Prop of the Day

The Blue Jays are +190 to be the first team to score five runs in Tuesday's showdown with Tampa Bay. Toronto has scored five or more runs in five of its previous seven games, while allowing more than four runs just once in that span.

Injury Notes

* Kansas City Royals starter Yordano Ventura will undergo an MRI on his injured pitching elbow Tuesday to determine the severity. The Royals are 0-5 S/U in Ventura's last five starts, and he failed to last longer than 6 1/3 innings in any of them.

* Tampa Bay catcher Ryan Hanigan left Monday's game against Toronto with discomfort in his hamstring. The Rays went 0-2 and $-223 in two games Hanigan missed earlier in the season with the same ailment.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Citizens Bank Park should expect wind blowing out to right field for Tuesday's game between Philadelphia (-116, 7) and Colorado. Teams averaged a combined 10.2 runs and 2.71 homers in 14 games under similar conditions last season - well above the stadium averages of 8.8 runs and 2.17 homers.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 9-1-1 in umpire Eric Cooper's last 11 games behind home plate. Cooper is calling the balls and strikes for Tuesday's game between Arizona (-123, 9) and visiting San Diego.

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HURLEY

NBA
medium spurs

MLB
small toronto
small texas

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Paul Leiner

2000* Thunder -2.5

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Vegas Sports Informer

3* Royals

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ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take #955 Pittsburgh (+105) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #962 San Francisco (-180) over Chicago Cubs (10 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #964 Toronto (-115) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #968 Kansas City (-130) over Houston (8 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #973 L.A. Angels (-130) over Seattle (10 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #976 Atlanta (-105) over Boston (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)

Today’s Totals
5-Unit GOW - Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 – Pittsburgh at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.0 – Boston at Atlanta (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 27)

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Allen Eastman

4* Rockies

3* Angels

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Indian Cowboy

MLB: 3* #976. Take Under 7 Boston vs. Atlanta (Tuesday @ 7 PM EDT)

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Diamond Dog Sports

1.5* #957: Padres: +120
Listed Pitchers: Stults / Miley

2.5* #956/957: Under Royals: 8.0 (-120)
Listed Pitchers: McHugh / Guthrie

2* #965/966: Under White Sox: 7.5 (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Masterson / Sale

NBA
3* #515/516: Over Thunder: 207.5 -105