5-31-14

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Tampasports night plays 5/31

arizona-m.line-best bet

pittsburgh-m.line
seattle-r.line

spurs/okla city-under total -best bet

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INDIAN COWBOY MLB
3* D backs -105

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2Halves2Win NBA (on a 7-1-1 playoff run):

1* GAME: Spurs-Thunder u206 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Rooster

STRAIGHT BET [1970] TOTAL u4½+105 (1H TAM vrs 1H BOS) ( J ODORIZZI -R / R DELAROSA -R )

STRAIGHT BET [970] TOTAL u9-125 (TAM vrs BOS) ( J ODORIZZI -R / R DELAROSA -R )

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EZWINNERS


Added

3* Dodgers -155

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Trace Adams

Saturday's Selection ...

For Saturday, Raise the Bar 1500♦ is the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over the the Oklahom City Thunder. At 7:30 am eastern time, the Spurs are +3 1/2 point underdogs both in Vegas and offshore.


You know me, you know I am a big "Due Theory" believer, and after watching the home team in the Western Conference Finals steamroll to 5 wins and 5 covers in as many games, I think it is "Due Theory" time, and that the Spurs are going to be there at the Chesapeake Energy Arena this Saturday night.


You may also know that I am not a big believer in Scott Brooks as a head coach, and to me it is only a matter of time before Gregg Popovich makes the right road adjustments and gets the Spurs back to the NBA Finals starting on Thursday night.


Hard to argue the home team success in this series, and also hard to argue the 10-1 straight up and against the spread mark the Thunder sport their last 11 home games against San Antonio, but I am going to do just that. My feeling is the Spurs are the better, deeper team, and they have the better coach on their side as well. Throw in the +3 points or so that we are catching, and I think Game Six goes against the grain tonight as the visitor finally comes through.


Take the Spurs plus the points.

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Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM-MLB (80% in MLB 2014)
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 10:10 ET.


The Reds won 6-4 last night in Arizona and Johnny Cueto is hoping he'll get some of that same kind of support, tonight. Cueto ranks among the major league ERA leaders (1.83) but is near the bottom of baseball with an average run support of 2.80. That's why he's just 4-4 in 11 starts in 2014, with the Reds actually being a losing proposition in his starts (5-6)!


That hardly seems right, as along with his 1.83 ERA, Cueto has allowed just 43 hits in 83.2 innings while posting a 85-20 KW ratio. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.75 and opponents have batted a measly .148 against him. Now lets' compare that to his mound counterpart tonight, Arizona's Brandon McCarthy.


McCarthy began his career back in 2005 with the White Sox. He had 53 appearances in 2006 but only TWO were starts. However, since that time all but ONE of his 110 appearances from 2007 through 2013 (pitching for Texas, Oakland and Arizona) have been starts. Note that his record heading into 2014 was a very journeyman-like 42-50 (4.10 ERA).


He's made 11 starts for Arizona here in 2014, entering this contest 1-6 (team is 2-9). His ERA is 4.87 on the season but it's his night starts which really throw up a red flag. While he owns a 2.88 ERA in five day starts, he's been just AWFUL "under the lights!" He's allowed 46 hits over 34 innings in six night starts, posting a 1.56 WHIP and 6.88 ERA. Any surprise he's 0-4 and the team 0-6 in those contests?


Considering Arizona is MLB's worst home team at 9-20 (minus-$1,297) on the season and as a team allows on average, 5.34 RPG at Chase Field, isn't this a perfect spot for the Reds to give Cueto the kind of support he deserves? One last thing. Cueto allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 4.1 innings of an 11-5 loss at Arizona last June 21 but had allowed a total of just seven runs on 18 hits over 38 innings while going 5-0 in his first six starts against the D'backs (Reds were 6-0!).


I'll bet on that version of Cueto to show up here, considering the numbers he's posted so far in 2014 (see above for a reminder).

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Brad Wilton

Your Saturday Winner...

Saturday winner is a 100 Dime release on the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder to go Over the posted total. At 4:00 am Vegas time, the total is 206 1/2 points.

Saturday's Analysis


Call me stubborn, but I am not ready to give up on the Over just yet in this Spurs-Thunder series.


After Game 1 went sailing Over the total, the past 4 games have all held Under the total. In 2 of the last 3 games the teams were well over pace to land Over the total by the half, but the points trickled in just slow enough in the second half to keep things just Under the total.


In fact Thursday night the teams were sitting at 120 points at the break and fell a basket away from going over the total. Crazy!


Can't see that trend continuing tonight with elimination on the line, as I am sure Oklahoma City will bomb away if they get behind. They will also foul heavily if they find themselves playing from behind, and there is nothing better when you have a play on the Over then getting free points from the charity stripe when the clock is stopped.


After 4 straight series Unders, let's take Game 6 to finally land Over the posted price.

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pred. machine

again no normal play

half bet OKC -3.5 56.1%