6-3-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll 911: How to revive your dying MLB bets
By JASON LOGAN

April showers were supposed to bring May flowers, but for many MLB bettors those rainy days didn’t end.

Surviving the first two months of the baseball season with your bankroll intact can be about as tough a task as getting Red Sox fans to forgive Jacoby Ellsbury for jumping ship to the Yankees. If you’re among the many with their baseball bets on life support, we’re dialing 911 before it’s too late.

We asked Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to give some insight, tips and practices on how to revive your baseball bankroll.

Money management

We may be taking you back to sports betting kindergarten here, but plenty of bettors don’t understand proper money management. This practice is extremely important when it comes to baseball. Without it, your wallet with thin up quicker than Keira Knightley on a hunger strike.

The majority of MLB wagers are made on the moneyline, which can be very deceptive when it comes to wins and losses. A 30-12 record may look good at first glance but – depending on the price of those moneylines – could actually be a losing mark. Covers Expert Steve Merrill says ranking your plays and knowing how much to wager is an important part of climbing out of the red.

“Money management is critical and especially in a daily sport like MLB where you have multiple plays every day for six months straight,” Merill says. “The best method is to use a fixed percentage of bankroll for each play.”

Some cappers suggest divvying out 1 percent of your bankroll on MLB plays you like ($100 wager for a $10,000 bankroll) while others look to bet 3 percent and jump to 4 and 5 percent on games they really feel strongly about. If you’re coming out of a terrible April and May, you may want to start smaller and go from there.

“This will enable you to withstand the inevitable statistical swings - both good and bad - that occur during a long and high volume MLB season,” says Merril.

If you’ve been properly managing your bankroll this whole time but still burning through units, drop your bet size down to relieve some of the pressure of the losing skid. Some cappers suggest a decrease of 25 to 30 percent from your regular wager size.

Beware big moneyline favorites

Teams like Detroit, Los Angeles and St. Louis regularly find themselves at the top of the divisional standings but rarely sit among the top money earners for baseball bettors. That’s because you pay a premium to take these teams on the moneyline.

While these elite clubs win more often than not, those victories return cents on the dollar taking a long time to add up. And when those top teams do lose, it does Godzilla-like damage to your bankroll since it costs so much just to bet them.

Avoiding hefty favorites and finding other ways to cash in on these power teams is a good way to breathe life back into your bankroll. Covers Expert Nick Parsons says costly favorites should not be toyed with, instead look to alternative odds – like runlines – to find better value.

“I'd suggest playing favorites on the runline if the (moneyline) price is above -160,” says Parsons. “If you don't think that team is going to win by more than a run, then it's probably best to avoid that play all together.”

Doggy Dog world

Underdogs are underdogs for a reason – they’re not expected to win. That doesn’t always instill the greatest confidence in sports bettors. However, finding live underdogs is a perfect way to shoot Red Bull directly into the veins of your bankroll.

Some handicappers strictly wager on underdog teams, as to not get burned by high-priced favorites. Covers Expert Sean Murphy tends to lean toward plus-money teams, hunting down home pups and short road dogs showing their teeth.

“It's no surprise that I suggest looking for value in dogs priced north of +130 on a daily basis,” says Murphy. “Consider a couple of underdogs each day, expecting to split at worst, and your bankroll will not only survive but grow over time.”

Tracking totals

If you’ve been betting totals all along or just sick of getting pantsed on the moneyline, the MLB Over/Under is a great way to get out of a funk. And, perhaps more than any other sport, baseball total trends can be any easy way to spot profit.

“When the betting markets are off on a team's baseline total number, the value can last for weeks, even months,” says Teddy Covers. “Just ask anyone who has been betting Miami and Baltimore Overs or San Diego and Atlanta Unders in recent weeks.”

And when it comes to the cost of the Over or Under, MLB bettors aren’t paying a premium to play one side of the other, usually dealing with lines no higher than -130 associated with the total.

Pump the breaks and stay patient

Baseball is an everyday sport, however, there’s no rule that says you have to be it every day.

If you’re feeling the sting of a bad beat or extended losing skid – like an Aroldis Chapman beanball – you can always take a day or two off. Like any task or project, sometimes fresh eyes can be the best solution to a problem.

"While no one wants to hear it, laying off can be a fail-safe strategy to not further dwindle one's bankroll," says Covers Expert Bryan Power. "I know that if I feel I am struggling to pick winners, taking a day or two off can help. Take some time, look at what's going on with out making any actual wagers and see if you can come to any new conclusions."

Keep calm and give it time to turnaround. Don’t expect to follow a 0-fer day with a perfect 4-0 record just because you’ve taken all the steps above. Baseball is a 162-game schedule and as the classic sport betting cliché says, “It’s a marathon, not a race.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Interleague play has lost special place with MLB bettors
By JASON LOGAN

Interleague action used to be one of the most exciting chunks of schedule during the long and grueling MLB season. After months of the same ole divisional rivalries and league showdowns, baseball bettors got a brief breath of fresh air when the American and National Leagues would collide.

But, much like the way the Star Wars franchise was watered down, interleague play was ruined by Major League Baseball wanting to capitalize on the popularity of these AL vs. NL battles.

Now, interleague play isn’t just reserved for a few weeks on the calendar – it’s happening almost every day. In fact, interleague became so diluted that MLB.com stopped updating their historical records and stats section for these senior-versus-junior circuit clashes back in 2012.

As of Monday, which features four interleague games, there have already been 109 interleague contests played this season, with the AL holding a slight 59-50 edge over its NL opponents. However, if it wasn’t for the AL East - 27-16 versus the NL – the American League would be losing 34-32 to the National League.

“I think it's a completely different animal now that we see interleague play on a daily basis,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “Teams don't seem to be changing their approach as much when hopping leagues.”

Interleague games offered something different for the industry. It threw a bit of a curveball at books and bettors, who had to factor in how a starting pitcher would hit in limited plate appearance or what the impact would be if an NL squad suddenly had a designated hitter. There was an aura of the unknown, which leveled the playing field when it came to finding added value in those interleague moneyline and totals.

There are factors some handicappers still size up when breaking down the odds for American-National affairs, especially when it comes to sending an AL pitcher to the plate for one of their few career at-bats.

“This does make a huge difference and I try to typically avoid AL teams playing in NL parks unless they have a decided edge in starting pitching or if the NL team is just a bad one,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “Weak-hitting American League teams can be a good Under bet in NL parks while strong-hitting NL teams can be a good Over bet in AL parks.”

However, due to the oversaturation of interleague action in the modern MLB era, some bettors are treating these games the same as any other divisional or league matchup.

“It has been occurring long enough now where the teams are getting comfortable with the different venues and format,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “I handicap the games the same as regular in-league play using matchups, momentum, and current form.”

Heading into this week, the most successful interleague squads this season have been the San Francisco Giants (6-0), Milwaukee Brewers (7-2), and Los Angeles Angels (6-2), while the bottom of the interleague barrel features the Minnesota Twins (2-6), Philadelphia Phillies (1-8), and Chicago Cubs (2-6).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 3RD 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#911 OAKLAND @ #912 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Athletics LH Scott Kazmir (6-2, 2.36 ERA, WHIP: 0.961) - Kazmir has given up 16 hits in 24 1/3 innings over his four-start surge and is limiting opponents to a .212 average overall, the third-lowest mark among qualified American League starters entering Monday's action. The veteran, who has a 3.16 ERA in six road outings, has surrendered 10 runs on 15 hits (four home runs) in just 10 frames at Yankee Stadium. Kazmir is 7-7 with a 3.50 mark overall against New York.

--KEY STAT: KAZMIR is 20-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 2.3.

--KAZMIR is 13-4 against the run line (+9.9 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.1, OPPONENT 3.5.

--KAZMIR is 17-5 against the run line (+13.9 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.0, OPPONENT 3.0.

--KAZMIR is 19-8 against the run line (+13.1 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.8, OPPONENT 3.1.

--KAZMIR is 19-6 against the run line (+17.9 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 2.3.

--KAZMIR is 18-6 against the run line (+14.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 6.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

--KAZMIR is 12-2 against the run line (+11.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.9, OPPONENT 3.4.

•Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (4-3, 4.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.323) - Kuroda owns a 4.84 ERA over his last four starts and has surrendered 17 hits in just 10 1/3 innings in his last two outings, including nine in a shaky win at St. Louis on Wednesday. He is 0-2 with a 6.94 mark in two home starts versus the Athletics and has given up 25 runs in 35 1/3 frames at Yankee Stadium in 2014. Kuroda kept the ball in the park against the Cardinals after serving up five homers over his previous three appearances.

--KEY STAT: KURODA is 19-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.8, OPPONENT 3.1.

--KURODA is 15-3 UNDER (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.7, OPPONENT 3.4.

--KURODA is 14-3 UNDER (+10.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

--KURODA is 24-7 UNDER (+16.0 Units) in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.1, OPPONENT 3.1.

#913 TORONTO @ #914 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (4-3, 3.88 ERA, WHIP: 1.262) - Hutchison was scheduled to start Sunday against Kansas City, but the Blue Jays decided to push him back after he yielded five runs and three homers among seven hits in five innings of a 10-5 victory over Tampa Bay on May 26. "I just had a poor outing, I wasn't sharp," the 23-year-old Florida native told reporters after his worst start of 2014. "It was just one of those games you have to grind through. But I've been keeping my normal routine, with a few tweaks, and I'll be ready to take the ball on Tuesday." Hutchison, who missed all of 2013 because of Tommy John surgery, never pitched against Detroit, but faced Ian Kinsler (1-for-4, double, three RBIs).

•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.49 ERA, WHIP: 0.992) - Sanchez was two outs away from his third straight victory before Josh Donaldson's three-run homer against Joe Nathan gave Oakland a 3-1 walk-off victory on Wednesday. The 30-year-old Venezuelan yielded four runs in 20 1/3 innings over three starts - with victories over Texas and at Boston - since recovering from a blister on his right middle finger. Sanchez is 2-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts against Toronto, while Melky Cabrera is an eye-popping 10-for-18 against him.

--KEY STAT: SANCHEZ is 9-19 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0.

--SANCHEZ is 9-19 (-18.2 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9.

--SANCHEZ is 11-2 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

--SANCHEZ is 19-6 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 3.0.

#915 BOSTON @ #916 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (1-2, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.456) - Peavy, who went 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in May, turned in his best performance of the month but settled for a no-decision in Thursday’s 4-3 victory over the Atlanta Braves. The 2007 National League Cy Young Award winner allowed three runs on eight hits over a season-high eight frames, surrendering a homer for the 10th time in 11 starts. Peavy struck out a season-high 11 en route to a victory in his last turn versus the Indians in 2013 to improve to 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 all-time starts against them.

--KEY STAT: PEAVY is 9-21 (-14.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.9, OPPONENT 4.3.

--PEAVY is 2-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.7, OPPONENT 4.8.

--PEAVY is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.5, OPPONENT 3.5.

•Indians LH T.J. House (0-1, 4.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.429) - Bouncing back from his rough outing in his first major-league start on May 23, House did not factor in the decision despite permitting one run and striking out eight over 6 1/3 innings in Wednesday’s 3-2 setback versus the White Sox. The 24-year-old Louisiana native, who continues to fill the rotation spot of the injured Zach McAllister, is allowing left-handed batters to hit .368 thus far after holding them to a.188 average at Triple-A Columbus prior to his promotion. House will make just his fourth career major-league appearance and face Boston for the first time.

#917 BALTIMORE @ #918 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 4.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.484) - Jimenez bounced back from consecutive rocky outings by limiting Houston to one run and three hits over six innings on Thursday. Jimenez will pitch on his regular rest after scheduled starter Bud Norris was pushed back to pitch in Wednesday's middle game of the series. Jimenez owns a 3-2 mark and 3.03 ERA in six career outings versus Texas, including eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball last July as a member of the Cleveland Indians.

--KEY STAT: JIMENEZ is 19-5 UNDER (+13.7 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8.

--JIMENEZ is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4.

--JIMENEZ is 13-27 against the run line (-22.4 Units) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.1, OPPONENT 4.5.

•Rangers LH Joe Saunders (0-1, 4.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.845) - Saunders will make his third start of the season and second since missing returning from the 15-day disabled list with a fractured ankle that sidelined him for nearly eight weeks. The well-traveled veteran, who spent part of the 2012 season with Baltimore, blanked Minnesota on five hits over five innings last time out. Saunders has never lost to the Orioles in nine career starts, posting a 7-0 mark and 4.09 ERA.

#919 LA ANGELS @ #920 HOUSTON - 8:10 PM
•Angels LH C.J. Wilson (6-4, 3.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.109) - Wilson lost to Seattle in his last outing when he gave up three runs and five hits in 7 2/3 innings. He defeated the Astros on April 7 when he allowed one run and four hits in eight innings. Overall, he is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against Houston.

--KEY STAT: WILSON is 30-11 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.

--WILSON is 21-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.2, OPPONENT 3.1.

--WILSON is 13-3 OVER (+10.1 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.3, OPPONENT 3.4.

--WILSON is 18-7 UNDER (+10.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.0.

--WILSON is 18-4 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.4, OPPONENT 4.4.

--WILSON is 15-2 OVER (+13.2 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.6, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--WILSON is 15-2 OVER (+13.2 Units) in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 6.7, OPPONENT 4.9.

•Astros RH Collin McHugh (3-3, 2.80 ERA, WHIP: 0.978) - McHugh lost to the Angels on May 21 despite giving up just two runs and four hits in seven innings. He allowed a homer in the sixth to Albert Pujols to lose a 2-1 decision against Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver. McHugh tossed seven shutout innings of five-hit ball to beat Kansas City in his last turn after losing his three previous decisions.

--KEY STAT: MCHUGH is 1-11 (-10.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCHUGH 3.1, OPPONENT 5.8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Tuesday, 6/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ _

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
Interleague action used to be one of the most exciting chunks of schedule during the long and grueling Major League Baseball season. After months of the same ole divisional rivalries and league showdowns, baseball bettors got a brief breath of fresh air when the American and National Leagues would collide. But, much like the way the Star Wars franchise was watered down, interleague play was ruined by Major League Baseball wanting to capitalize on the popularity of these American League versus National League battles.

Now, interleague play isn’t just reserved for a few weeks on the calendar – it’s happening almost every day. In fact, interleague became so diluted that MLB.com stopped updating their historical records and stats section for these senior-versus-junior circuit clashes back in 2012. As of Monday evening, which features four interleague matchups, there have already been 109 interleague confrontations played this season, with the AL holding a slight 59-50 edge (54.1%) over its NL opponents. However, if it wasn’t for the AL East - 27-16 versus the NL – the American League would be losing 34-32 to the National League.

“I think it's a completely different animal now that we see interleague play on a daily basis,” says StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo. “Teams don't seem to be changing their approach as much when hopping leagues.”

Interleague games offered something different for the industry. It threw a bit of a curveball at books and bettors, who had to factor in how a starting pitcher would hit in limited plate appearance or what the impact would be if an NL squad suddenly had a designated hitter. There was an aura of the unknown, which leveled the playing field when it came to finding added value in those interleague moneyline and totals. There are factors some handicappers still size up when breaking down the odds for American-National affairs, especially when it comes to sending an AL pitcher to the plate for one of their few career at-bats.

“This does make a huge difference and I try to typically avoid AL teams playing in NL parks unless they have a decided edge in starting pitching or if the NL team is just a bad one,” says StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst James Vogel. “Weak-hitting American League teams can be a good Under bet in NL parks while strong-hitting NL teams can be a good Over bet in AL parks.”

However, due to the oversaturation of interleague action in the modern MLB era, some bettors are treating these games the same as any other divisional or league matchup. “It has been occurring long enough now where the teams are getting comfortable with the different venues and format,” says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor. “I handicap the games the same as regular in-league play using matchups, momentum, and current form.”

Heading into Week #10, the most successful interleague squads this season have been the San Francisco Giants (6-0), Milwaukee Brewers (7-2), and Los Angeles Angels (6-2), while the bottom of the interleague barrel features the Minnesota Twins (2-6), Philadelphia Phillies (1-8), and Chicago Cubs (2-6).
____________________________________________

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
-- De La Rosa is 6-0, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Pirates won Cole's last three starts (2-0, 3.93).

-- Kazmir is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Sanchez is 2-0, 2.01 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts. McHugh is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Archer is 0-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Kansas City won Shields' last six road starts.
-- Noesi is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts. Buchanon is 1-1, 4.63 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson has a 6.08 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 3-0 when he starts, scoring 35 runs- he had one no-decision shortened by rain.
-- Haren is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hahn is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.20 in seven AA starts; that ERA in the Texas League is very good, but five innings was his longest start.

-- Peavy is 0-2, 5.89 in his last six starts. House is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts. Saunders is 0-1, 5.19 in his two starts this season.

-- Ramirez is 0-4, 7.04 in his last five starts. Floyd is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.82 in his last five.
-- Garcia has a 4.12 RA in three starts this season.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cole's last eight starts.

-- Eight of last ten Cleveland home games went over; last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Yankees home games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 10 of last 14 Baltimore games went over the total; last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Dodger home games went over total. Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under.

•Hot Teams
-- Giants won eight of their last 10 games. Cincinnati won four of its last five.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Pirates won four of its last five games.

-- Indians won its last seven home games. Boston won seven of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Athletics won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Astros won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.

-- Braves won their last three games. Seattle won three of last four.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.

•Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost seven of its last 10 games. Philadelphia lost four of their last five.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last six games. Arizona is 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Padres are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.

-- Yankees lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Tigers lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Rangers are 4-9 in its last thirteen home games. Baltimore lost eight of last eleven road games, but won last two.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.

-- Marlins lost four of their last five home games. Tampa Bay lost its last nine road games.
-- Twins lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games. Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. Los Angeles is 9-13 in their last 22 home games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Pitt-SD-- Last seven Porter games stayed under total.

-- Bos-Cle-- Home side won nine of 11 Davis games; favorite won his last six.

-- TB-Mia-- Favorites won six of last eight Carapazza games.
-- KC-StL-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdogs won last five Wegner games; seven of his ten games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs won last four Cederstrom games; last three went over.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•ARIZONA is 4-21 (-19.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.4.

•PITTSBURGH is 10-0 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.5, OPPONENT 3.4.

•WASHINGTON is 3-18 (-18.4 Units) against the run line after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5.

•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 22-9 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.

•SAM DEDUNO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.4, OPPONENT 4.2.

•JAMES SHIELDS is 12-2 (+12.5 Units) against the run line on the road when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SHIELDS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.7.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(42-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -118.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5, +9.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-20, +27.6 units).

•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(60-21 since 1997.) (74.1%, +41.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (54-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.8, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (63% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7, +12.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +20.2 units).

•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(50-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +34.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-109.3
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.9 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 40 (67.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-13, +13.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (103-83, +12.2 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at NY Yankees

The A's head to New York to open their series against the Yankees and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JUNE 3 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 16.153; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.974 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under

Game 903-904: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.928; Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.851 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 17.261; Cubs (Arrieta) 15.904 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); N/A

Game 907-908: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 13.330; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.761 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 10 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Over

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.146; San Diego (Hahn) 15.099 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 911-912: Oakland at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 15.438; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 13.926 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Under

Game 913-914: Toronto at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.706; Detroit (Sanchez) 14.788 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under

Game 915-916: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 13.466; Cleveland (House) 16.588 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 18.416; Texas (Saunders) 14.420 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 11 Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.070; Houston (McHugh) 13.331 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 13.122; Atlanta (Floyd) 14.648 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Over

Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 18.143; Miami (Alvarez) 14.045 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 925-926: Kansas City at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.143; St. Louis (Garcia) 18.354 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over

Game 927-928: Minnesota at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 16.381; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 17.996 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Under

Game 929-930: Chicago White Sox at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 13.900; LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.139 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Phoenix

The Storm head to Phoenix where they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Mercury. Seattle is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

TUESDAY, JUNE 3 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 118.648; Atlanta 114.411 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 162 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 153 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-1); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.554; Phoenix 116.554 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8; 143 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 148 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Mets -115
Brewers(RL) -1.5(+138)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Rockies -165

Royals/Cards over 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play TUES Nationals -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mets on Monday and likes the Giants on Tuesday.

The deficit is 300 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants +100 over Cincy Reds
(System Record: 36-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 36-27

Rest of the Plays
Miami Marlins -103 over Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers -150 over Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays +124 over Detroit Tigers


Soccer Crusher
Santa Cruz + Ponta Preta SP UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 584-21, won last game)
Overall Record: 584-487-84

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
-- de la Rosa is 6-0, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Pirates won Cole's last three starts (2-0, 3.93).

-- Kazmir is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Sanchez is 2-0, 2.01 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts. McHugh is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Archer is 0-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Kansas City won Shields' last six road starts.
-- Noesi is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts. Buchanon is 1-1, 4.63 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson has a 6.08 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 3-0 when he starts, scoring 35 runs- he had one no-decision shortened by rain.
-- Haren is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hahn is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.20 in seven AA starts; that ERA in the Texas League is very good, but five innings was his longest start.

-- Peavy is 0-2, 5.89 in his last six starts. House is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts. Saunders is 0-1, 5.19 in his two starts this season.

-- Ramirez is 0-4, 7.04 in his last five starts. Floyd is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.82 in his last five.
-- Garcia has a 4.12 RA in three starts this season.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Buchanan 0-2; Zimmerman 1-11
-- Lincecum 4-11; Bailey 3-11
-- Wheeler 4-11; Arrieta 1-5
-- Anderson 0-4; de la Rosa 3-11
-- Cole 4-11; Hahn 0-0

-- Kazmir 2-11; Kuroda 5-11 (3 of last 4)
-- Hutchison 2-11; Sanchez 3-8
-- Peavy 1-11; House 0-2
-- Jimenez 4-11; Saunders 1-2
-- Wilson 3-11; McHugh 1-7

-- Ramirez 3-6; Floyd 0-5
-- Archer 3-11; Alvarez 4-11
-- Shields 2-12; Garcia 1-3
-- Deduno 2-5; Gallardo 2-11
-- Noesi 3-6; Haren 4-11

Totals
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cole's last eight starts.

-- Eight of last ten Cleveland home games went over; last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Bronx home games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 10 of last 14 Baltimore games went over the total; last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Dodger home games went over total. Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under.


Hot teams
-- Giants won eight of their last 10 games. Cincinnati won four of its last five.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Pittsburgh won four of its last five games.

-- Cleveland won its last seven home games. Red Sox won seven of their last eight games.
-- Toronto won 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Oakland won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Astros won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.

-- Braves won their last three games. Mariners won three of last four.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.


Cold teams
-- Washington lost seven of its last 10 games. Phillies lost four of their last five.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last six games. Diamondbacks are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Padres are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.

-- Bronx lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Detroit lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Texas is 4-9 in its last thirteen home games. Orioles lost eight of last eleven road games, but won last two.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.

-- Marlins lost four of their last five home games. Tampa Bay lost its last nine games on foreign soil.
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games. Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. Dodgers are 9-13 in their last 22 home games.

Umpires
-- Pitt-SD-- Last seven Porter games stayed under total.

-- Bos-Cle-- Home side won nine of 11 Davis games; favorite won his last six.

-- TB-Mia-- Favorites won six of last eight Carapazza games.
-- KC-StL-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdogs won last five Wegner games; seven of his ten games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs won last four Cederstrom games; last three went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | LA ANGELS at HOUSTON
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL)
89-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.6% | 42.6 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -0.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at ST LOUIS
KANSAS CITY is 26-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.7) , OPPONENT (2.9)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three big betting trends for the NHL Stanley Cup final

Moneyline favorites are a perfect 7-0 SU in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final since 2007.

The Stanley Cup final not only marks the final journey for two teams looking to become NHL champions, it also represents the final game action for bettors before the start of the three-month offseason.

Bettors will note several interesting trends - not only those involving the Los Angeles Kings and the New York Rangers, but those relating to previous Stanley Cup championships. And if past history in either case continues in this year's title showdown, following the trends could pay handsomely.

Here are three trends going into this year's Stanley Cup final:

Favorites Dominate Game 1

The favored team has been automatic since 2007 when it comes to setting the tone, going a perfect 7-0 SU in Game 1. The favorites ranged from a narrow -107, the moneyline the Kings cashed in on with their 2-1 win over New Jersey in the 2012 Stanley Cup opener, to the -188 pricetag the Vancouver Canucks converted in their 1-0 triumph over Boston in the 2011 championship curtain raiser. The Under has also been a strong play in Game 1, with Chicago's 4-3 overtime win over Boston in last year's Stanley Cup opener representing just the second Over in the past seven Game 1s.

Unders Lead the Way

The trend of fewer goals being scored later in the postseason really takes hold in the final, where the Under has been the predominant play for the better part of the previous seven Stanley Cup series. Teams have amassed a 15-24-4 O/U mark in those contests, with the Boston Bruins-Vancouver Canucks seven-game thriller in 2010 (5-1-0 O/U) serving as the only outlier in that time. The Under has been a particularly strong play over the previous two Stanley Cup finals, coming through in eight of the 12 games.

Kings of the Overs

Los Angeles has had a wild ride to the final - rallying from a 3-0 first-round deficit against San Jose and needing Game 7 victories to win each of its first three series. But the most amazing development in the Kings' quest to win a second Stanley Cup may be the extent to which it has bucked its incredible regular-season O/U trend.

Los Angeles had the best Under mark in the league at 22-41 O/U - thanks in large part to the league's best goals-against total - but has turned that on its face in the postseason, going 13-5-3 O/U entering the final. That includes six straight Overs to end its conference final win over Chicago.