6-5-14

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Cards -125

Orioles +105

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Thurs Washington -170

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Blue Jays on Wednesday and likes the Tigers and Spurs (series) on Thursday.

The deficit is 295 sirignanos.

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NBA Playoffs

Miami beat Spurs in seven games in Finals LY, escaping tough spot in Game 6 to pull out OT win when it appeared Spurs were going to win series. Heat is 4-3 on road in playoffs, 0-1 when getting points; they're 1-3 in last four games. Home team won 11 of last 14 series games. Seven of last nine Miami games went over total; six of last eight San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs won last eight home games, are 9-1 at home in playoffs, covering last seven home games. Neither team has played this month, so fatigue is no factor here.

Over is 48-36 in playoffs this season, 6-6 in last round..
Favorites are 34-50 in playoffs this season, 10-2 in last round.

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Spurs look for revenge

Miami Heat (66-31) at San Antonio Spurs (74-26)

Line and Total: San Antonio -3.5, Total: 198.5

Game 1 of the NBA Finals kicks off Thursday night in San Antonio when the Spurs look to get revenge on the Heat for what happened in 2013.

Miami advanced to the championship with a 117-92 blowout victory versus the Pacers in a home Game 6, while San Antonio actually had to work hard for a 112-107 road win in Game 6 over Oklahoma City. Last year, these two teams met in the NBA Finals where the Heat ultimately won their second straight championship with a Game 7 victory.

Over the past three seasons, the Spurs are 3-2 SU and ATS versus Miami when at home, but overall, the Heat are 8-4 SU while the two teams have split games 6-6 ATS. Twenty-eight of the past 39 games played in this series have gone Under the total since 1996. San Antonio star PG Tony Parker (ankle) is likely to play in Game 1 after missing most of the second half of the team's series-clinching win in the Western Conference Finals.

For interested bettors, Miami is 16-5 ATS over the past two seasons after three straight games forcing its opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers. The Heat are also 11-3 ATS when playing five or less games in 14 days this season. However, the Spurs are 43-24 ATS in non-conference games over the past two seasons, and 32-17 ATS after a combined score of 205+ points this season.

The Heat embarrassed the Pacers in Game 6 behind an impressive overall team effort. SF LeBron James (27.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) had an excellent game, finishing with 25 points (8-of-12 FG), six assists and four rebounds after having just seven points in Game 5. James was unstoppable attacking the rim, and really had it going from mid-range. He should have more difficulty against a Spurs team that tries to make the role players beat them.

PF Chris Bosh (15.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) really got himself going in the final three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. Bosh averaged 23.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.3 BPG over that final stretch, and his outside shot appeared to be back after he struggled mightily in the opening rounds of this postseason. Bosh will need to have a big series, as he is the only player with size on the Heat roster, and will be going up against some talented frontcourt players.

SG Dwyane Wade (18.7 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) had just 13 points in 25 minutes in Game 6, but he did have six assists and six rebounds. Wade looked like his old self in the first three rounds for Miami. If he can continue to drive aggressively and hit his outside shot occasionally, it will really help open up the floor for James in this series.

SG Ray Allen (9.1 PPRG, 3.5 RPG in playoffs) had some big moments against the Pacers, and the Heat will need his shooting off the bench against San Antonio.

Last year, the Spurs were devastated when a missed layup late in the series by PF Tim Duncan (16.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) fell just short, which helped allow the Heat to win the NBA championship. Despite suffering from that loss, the Spurs have rebounded and made it all the way back for some revenge in 2014. Duncan has been a man on a mission for the Spurs, finishing with 19 points and 15 rebounds in a closeout game on the road against the Thunder. San Antonio force-fed him the ball late and he delivered down the stretch on nearly every touch. Duncan will need to be aggressive in his matchup with the weaker Chris Bosh.

PG Tony Parker (17.2 PPG, 4.9 APG in playoffs) was injured in Game 6 against the Thunder and was able to play only 19 minutes, but he is likely to play in Game 1 against Miami. Parker will need to use his speed to make sure he is making a living in the paint because the Heat point guards are one of the team’s major weaknesses.

SG Manu Ginobili (14.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) had 15 points, six rebounds, five assists and four steals in Game 6 against the Thunder. Ginobili was all over the place for San Antonio in that series, making timely baskets and coming away with steals when the Spurs needed him most. His matchup with Dwyane Wade could come a long way in determining who wins this series.

SF Kawhi Leonard (13.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) will be faced with the difficult task of covering LeBron James for most of this series. C Boris Diaw (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.7 APG in playoffs), who had 26 points (8-of-14 FG) in Game 6, will also check James for a couple of possessions per game.

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team (WASHINGTON) well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) excellent free throw shooting team (>=80%) against an average free throw shooting team (71-76%), after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better
69-31 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

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Away dogs continue to roll against runline
By ANDREW CALEY

If you backed away dogs against the runline in major league action Wednesday night you probably went home happy.

Road underdogs took it to their home side counterparts last night going 8-2 against the runline, a success rate of an impressive 80 percent.

Taking away dogs against the runline has been the best bet in baseball all season, hitting at almost 64 percent for the season.

The biggest away dogs to come through were the Miami Marlins at +197, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4.

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MLB

St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

St Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals conclude their home-home I-70 interleague set with Royals having notched two victories in St Louis and Cardinals getting a little revenge with a win last night in K.C. St Louis mired in a 3-7 slump send out Michael Wacha, who currently sports a 4-3 record with a 2.45 ERA. The record disguises the fact that the right-hander has shown a dominating presence tossing 10 quality starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 12 trips to the mound. The Royals have Yordano Ventura scheduled to start. Ventura ridding an 0-4 skid is 2-5 on the campaign with a 3.45 ERA and returns after nine days of rest having skipped his last turn of the rotation. Wacha in fine form, St Louis 3-1 in his last four appearances, Ventura struggling look for Cardinals to extend it's 8-0 streak playing in Royals' back yard and it's move to 17-6 as a favorite of -$1.10 to -$1.50 in interleague action.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 2.31 in his last six starts.
-- Leake has 2.59 RA in his last six.
-- Fister is 3-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- De Grom has a 2.42 RA in four starts, but no wins.

-- Tanaka is 3-1, 1.82 in his last four starts.
-- Happ is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Peacock is 1-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts.

-- Wacha is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 4.99 in his last five starts.
-- Wood has an 8.00 RA in his last five starts.
-- Nicasio is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 4.95 in his last three.

-- Pomeranz is 1-1, 6.75 in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 2-2, 7.92 in his last four starts.
-- Tillman has a 10.13 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lewis is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three outings.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 6.23 in his last couple starts.

-- Turner is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-2, 5.79 in his last three outings.
-- Ventura is 0-4, 5.91 in his last four starts.
-- Peralta is 0-4, 3.94 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Bumgarner 2-12; Leake 2-11
-- Kendrick 6-11 (5 of last 6); Fister 2-5
-- DeGrom 0-4; Wood 3-11
-- Arroyo 5-11; Nicasio 5-11 (4 of last 5)

-- Pomeranz 0-5; Tanaka 3-11
-- Happ 0-6; Verlander 4-12
-- Skaggs 5-10; Peacock 2-7
-- Tillman 5-12 (5 of last 7); Lewis 3-9

-- Turner 2-7; Odorizzi 0-11
-- Wacha 3-12; Ventura 4-10
-- Peralta 1-11; Correia 2-11

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Giant games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Cub games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.

-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Bronx home games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 16 Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight St Louis games.

Hot teams
-- Giants won ten of their last 13 games.
-- Cincinnati won four of last five.
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six home games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Arizona won four of its last five road games.

-- Toronto won 16 of its last 19 games.
-- Oakland won its last five games, scoring 37 runs.
-- Baltimore won its last four road games.

-- Marlins won their last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado lost seven of its last eight games.

-- Bronx lost 12 of its last 16 home games.
-- Detroit lost 11 of its last fifteen games.
-- Texas is 4-11 in its last fifteen home games.
-- Angels lost six of their last nine games.
-- Houston lost three of last four. .

-- Tampa Bay lost its last nine games.
-- Milwaukee lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight games overall.

Umpires
-- Phil-Wsh-- Five of last seven Kulpa games stayed under.
-- SF-Cin-- Home side won eight of last ten Morales games.
-- NY-Chi-- Last seven Fagan games stayed under the total.
-- Az-Col-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Estabrook games.

-- A's-NY-- Five of last seven Hallion games stayed under.
-- Tor-Det-- Underdogs won four of last five Rackley games.
-- Balt-Tex-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven LBarrett games.
-- LA-Hst-- All three Campos games went over the total.

-- TB-Mia-- Six of seven Conroy games went over the total.
-- StL-KC-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Scott games.
-- Mil-Min-- Seven of nine Segal games went over the total.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY METS at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
51-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.1% | 27.3 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
OAKLAND is 11-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in Road games on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: OAKLAND (6.8) , OPPONENT (2.8)

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Linecatchers:

Playersbet Free Play

Washington Nationals -1 -135

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Three big betting trends for the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals have arrived, which means a much-anticipated rematch between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs, and a final opportunity for basketball bettors to scratch their itch prior to the offseason.

Here are three trends to pay attention to entering the NBA Finals:

Favorites, Under Rule Game 1

Looking for a strong start? Take the favorite and the Under in the opening game. Over the past seven NBA championship series, the favorite has covered the Game 1 spread six times. San Antonio's stunning 92-88 road victory over the Heat in the opening game of last year's NBA Finals is the only time in that stretch the underdog has covered.

The Under has been nearly as strong a trend over that span. Teams boast a 1-5-1 O/U mark over the previous seven openers, with Miami's 121-106 shootout win over Oklahoma City in 2012 the only Over in that time.

Miami Means More Offense

The Heat will participate in their fourth consecutive NBA Finals and their presence has meant more Overs than in seasons past. Miami and its Finals opponents - San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Dallas - have combined to go a respectable 9-7-2 O/U over the previous three championship series, running in stark contrast to the woeful 6-15-1 mark compiled by teams in the previous four NBA Finals.

Both the Heat and Spurs have been strong Over plays all year. Miami went 44-38 O/U in the regular season and is 11-4 O/U in the playoffs, while the Spurs were 44-37-1 O/U during the year and are 10-8 O/U in the postseason.

Spurs Stout at Home

It's one thing for a team to protect its home court, it's another for that team to do so against formidable road opponents. The Spurs, who will host the Heat in Thursday's NBA Finals opener, have covered in seven straight home games against teams with winning road records.

That stretch has seen the Spurs reel off seven consecutive home victories by an average of 23.7 points against the Thunder, Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers, who combined to go 71-52 on the road in the regular season. The Heat were 22-19 on the road in the regular season and are 4-3 away from home in the playoffs.

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2Halves2Win NBA:

1.5* GAME: Heat-Spurs o198.5 (-110: Risking 1.55 units to win 1.50 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Anthony Michael (YouWinNow) - #702 San Antonio -4

The Spurs have a big time revenge angle going here and I think that it will be a big time motivator for them here in game 1. Now add to that the fired up crowd and the history of game 1 losses by the Heat. Miami always seems to lose game 1 but find a way to win, I see the losing this game 1 as well. Take the Spurs here.

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Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals +109 over St. Louis Cardinals
(System Record: 35-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 35-30

Hockey Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 24-2: overall 24-16-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 115-90-3

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs -180 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: system 17-1: overall 17-18-3, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 95-103-8

Soccer Crusher
Ham Kam + FK Haugesund UNDER 3
This match is happening in Norway
(System Record: 584-21, lost last game and a push)
Overall Record: 584-488-85

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Miami Marlins +127 over Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees -150 over Oakland A's
Colorado Rockies -137 over Arizona Dbacks


Hockey
no play


Basketball
San Antonio Spurs + Miami Heat OVER 198.5