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River City Sharps
3 Units Cardinals -120
3 Units Cardinals -120
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FiveHoleFreddy
Brewers ML "2*"
Angels/Astros Under 9 "2*"Comment
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Ecks and Bacon
"Mr Chalk" won on Wednesday in MLB in the American League with the Indians -$150/Red Sox.
For Thursday in the NBA Finals E&B like the Spurs -2/Heat for the first half.
"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB
E&B split with his soccer wagers on Tuesday winning with Bosnia +$220/Mexico and losing a play on the draw.
Ben lee is 1-3 -$93 for week thirty two and 139-159-5 -$2723 through Thirty One weeks.
"Mr Chalk" is 26-26 -$670 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.Comment
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SPORTSWAGERS
NBA Finals – Game 1
SAN ANTONIO -4½ -105 over Miami
(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
Yes, defense wins championships, as long as it is paired with a good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 of the past 30 Finals and with home court edge they have won the first game by 5 points or more 86% of the time. The importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions while Miami finished 11th. The Heat would be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st). Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs and they played some very average teams to get here.
It’s safe to suggest that the Spurs and Heat were equals last year and one could make a strong case for the Heat getting extremely lucky in that fateful Game 6. This year they are not equal. While San Antonio has seen a number of key players improve this season — Manu Ginobili has bounced back, Kawhi Leonard continues to grow, Tiago Splitter is better, Boris Diaw is playing the best ball of his life — a Miami team that lost Mike Miller and hasn’t gotten much from Greg Oden or Michael Beasley seems to have taken a half-step backwards this season. The Heat’s interior defense is an area San Antonio can exploit. If Luis Scola of the Pacers can abuse Bosh on the low block, which he often did, what damage might Tim Duncan do? And, assuming Tony Parker’s ankle is healthy, which Miami perimeter defender is going to keep him out of the paint? LeBron can’t be everywhere.
The Spurs’ depth gives them a greater margin for error and their chemistry on both ends right now is second-to-none. Furthermore, San Antonio has been playing against high level competition for the last few weeks, while Miami will likely face an adjustment period after playing a depressed Eastern Conference and an offensively-deficient Indiana team. Even though extra motivation concept is mostly sports movie myth, Duncan’s “this time we’re going to do it,” declaration is hard to dismiss. When a team as skilled, precise and focused as the Spurs are right now, it may be foolish to go against them in the tone setting first game.Comment
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SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Milwaukee @ MINNESOTA
Milwaukee/MINNESOTA over 8½ -114
(Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)
Wily Peralta has a 2.73 ERA after 11 starts and because of that low ERA we get a very beatable number here. Peralta’s in for some serious ERA regression and now is the time to take advantage before the market catches up. Peralta does not have a varied pitch mix. He’s a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider. Two-pitch pitchers rarely have long-term success at this level. Hitters have a 50% chance of “guessing” correctly and probably a 75% chance when he’s behind in the count. Peralta’s low ERA is a direct result of an unsustainable 84% strand rate, which is the highest among all starters in the majors with eight starts or more. It doesn’t take long for major league hitters to figure out ordinary pitchers and Peralta is as ordinary as they come. It’s only a matter of time before those stranded runners start crossing the plate and these hot-hitting Twins, with 10 hits or more in six of their last seven games are very likely going to cash in a bunch of them.
Then there’s Kevin Correia. Correia is 1-4 at Target Field with an ERA of 7.09. He also comes into this start with a 1.54 WHIP and a home oppBA of .312. He is consistent though, as his oppBA on the road is .313. In 33 innings at Target Field, Correia has struck out 13 batters. His swing and miss rate at home is 3%, which is the lowest in the majors of any pitcher with one start or more. If there was a live GM draft with 150 starters (five on each team x 30 teams), thrown into a pool, Kevin Correia would be chosen 150th by all 30 GM’s. If he throws a good game it’s pure luck because this stiff is nothing but batting practice out there and it would come as no surprise if the Brew Crew went over this number on their own.
Toronto @ DETROIT
Toronto +132 over DETROIT
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.64)
1:05 PM EST. With J.A. Happ going and with Edwin Encarnacion likely sitting this one out, the assignment today for the Blue Jays may seem like a difficult one. Happ comes in with a 4.10 ERA and a fly-ball bias profile so there is a strong chance of him getting roughed up a bit. However, we once again point out that the Blue Jays are playing too good to ignore as a dog, especially in this price range. Toronto is absolutely on fire while the Tigers have just four wins in their past 16 games. Even if Happ and the Jays pen, which is much stronger than the Tigers pen, gives up four or more, the Jays offense is capable of doing the same to Justin Verlander and Detroit’s volatile bullpen.
Two months into the 2014 season, the Justin Verlander we once knew has yet to make an appearance. After 12 starts and 79 innings pitched, Verlander sports a 3.99 ERA, a 57/31 K/BB split and he has looked more like a run-of-the-mill starter than a former Cy Young award winner. It’s not a case of bad luck or just one of those slow starts that several pitchers have every year either. Verlander’s strikeout rate decline stands out immediately and is likely correlated to diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career and actually marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. A lack of a dominant heater has forced him to paint the corners more and thus far he's failing to do so by walking nearly four batters a game. Hit % and strand % cancel each other out so his bloated xERA of 4.63 is a product of both poor skills and an abnormally low hr/f%. Things actually could get worse for Verlander before they get better. At age 31 with more than 1800 IP on his arm, we may in fact be looking at Verlander's new normal and signs of a rebound do not exist. Verlander’s swing and miss rate has been on a steady decline all season. Without his typical 95-98 MPH fastball to fall back on, Verlander has far less room for error and it seems he's having trouble adjusting. Counting him out would be a mistake, but xERA casts an ominous shadow over the potential for an imminent return to form. Verlander is priced like an ace but he’s not close to pitching like one and we’ll look to take advantage.
Miami @ TAMPA BAY
Miami +140 over TAMPA BAY
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
4:10 PM EST. In 33 home games, the Rays have 11 wins. Against Randy Wolf in the opener of this series the Rays scored one run. Tampa got lucky last night with a couple of home-runs, a real rarity for them, but still lost 5-4 to run their losing streak to nine games. Prior to last night they had gone six straight games scoring two runs or less. Now Wil Myers is on the DL to add to their misery. The Rays are last in the AL East and they’re 13 games behind the Blue Jays. In other words, it’s early June and the Rays are out of it. Jake Odorizzi has great potential, as evidenced by his solid 11% swing and miss rate and his 63 K’s in 53 innings. However, Odorizzi walks too many batters, which has led to an unacceptable 1.54 WHIP and 5.13 ERA. He is constantly behind in the count and it’s also worth noting that his batted ball groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is weak at 36%/24%/40%.
Against David Price, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, arguably the best top three starters on the same team in the majors, the Marlins strung together some hits and ended up winning all three. Now Jacob Turner gets his turn to try and dominate a lineup that is pressing hard and missing everything. Turner has quietly put together a solid string of five starts in May covering 28 innings. Over that span, Turner has an elite 55% groundball rate, a swinging strike rate of 14% and an xERA of 3.68. Turner is looking like a former first-round pick that was a key to the Anibal Sanchez trade two summers ago. An unlucky 35% hit rate in May has kept his ERA above 4.00 but all the signs are there of him taking a big leap the rest of the way. At age 23 with 1st-round pedigree, Turner should be on your watch list because he’s so close to being extremely relevant and we‘ll put that to the test here. Big overlay.Comment
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Sharpsyndicate
4* Milwaukee Brewers ML
3* Colorado Rockies ML
1* St. Louis Cardinals MLComment
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Insider Sports Report
4* St. Louis (Wacha) -125 over Kansas City (Ventura)
Range: -110 to -150
3* N.Y. Mets (DeGrom) +100 over Chicago Cubs (Wood)
Range: +120 to -125
3* Miami/San Antonio UNDER 199 (NBA)
Range: 201 to 197Comment
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Insider Sports Report
4* St. Louis (Wacha) -125 over Kansas City (Ventura)
Range: -110 to -150
3* N.Y. Mets (DeGrom) +100 over Chicago Cubs (Wood)
Range: +120 to -125
3* Miami/San Antonio UNDER 199 (NBA)
Range: 201 to 197Comment
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Paul Leiner
100* Over 7.5 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals
100* Colorado Rockies -130
50* Milwaukee Brewers -120Comment
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DOC SPORTS (NBA)
8-Unit NBA Finals – Game of the Year – #702 Take San Antonio -4 over Miami (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)Comment
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GAMBLING GOD
League: NBA Finals
Heat vs Spurs
Pick: Spurs Team Total over 101 points
Risk:$110 to win $100
Time: 6:00 PM PTComment
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GOODFELLA
Thursday Night MLB Team Total
ARIZONA D-BACKS – OVER 4.5 RUNSComment
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Linecatchers
Playersbet Paid Card
3 units: St. Louis Cardinals -115
2 units: New York Yankees -1 +100
Yankees are 8-1 in Tanakas last 9 start
2 units: San Francisco Giants -1 -105
Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
4 units: Washington Nationals
As we been saying this whole time the Phillies are in a bad spot right now. The home team is 14-6 in Kulpas last 20 games behind home plate vs. Washington. The Nationals come into tonights game 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a right handed starter.
Free Play
Washington Nationals -1 -135Comment
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Teddy Covers
10* NBA Finals Game 1 Top Total [20-12 63% NBA Playoff Run]
10* Over 198.5 Miami Heat/San Antonio SpursComment
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BILL MARZANO
San Antonio Spurs -4Comment
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