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Dave Essler
914 ARI / 913 ATLOVER 8 5dimes Triple Dime
Analysis: I'd love to wait for lineups, but honestly would take my chances that we don't miss 8........it has a far better chance of going to 8.5 than 7.5. First of all, I just don't like Wade Miley and we successfully faded him last week when he gave up four bombs to the Reds. We had the over, and sadly enough all four jacks were solo shots. I don't see that being the case again tonight, since Atlanta pounded out 13 hits last night and scored late of the D-Backs bullpen, who has to use four pitchers last night. Some only threw a few pitches, but it's the warm-up, too. Atlanta will probably have everyone available, but Kimbrell did pitch last night. However, if I like this enough to play it 3* then we probably shouldn't be depending on late runs, although it's nice to know it's another option. Santana is simply a flyball pitcher, and when he makes mistakes they are up and leave the park, a la Wafe Miley. He's seriously regressed since the great start, and gave up runs to Boston, Milwaukee, and the Cardinals, all before having a good game against Miami. Even in that game he allowed 7 hits and three runs in six innings, and on the road teams are hitting .284 against him, which is almost 40 points higher than in the bigger stadium in Atlanta. Miley's HOME ERA is 6.57 with a WHIP of 1.51, which is well below pedestrian. Mark Wegner is behind the plate, and in two of his last three games there's been 10 or more runs scored. The one that DID NOT go over was at Houston with Gonzalez and Oberholtzer pitching, so I can accept that. In the last week, the D-Backs are hitting .303. Granted some of that was on the road, but last nights' low outcome was somewhat predictable in a first-game-back. The Braves SEEMED to have turned a corner, hitting .278 over the last week (which is a vast improvement) and obviously cranked out 13 hits last night. Lastly, this is a small park and even with the roof closed, it doesn't take much to put one out. In the end, I can see both teams getting to four, and I can see one team simply going off, so there are TONS of ways this is a winner, and we don't see the pitchers' duel that would keep it under. Plus, Miley is a superior hitting pitcher. Out.
914 ARI / 913 ATLOVER 8 5dimes Triple Dime
Analysis: I'd love to wait for lineups, but honestly would take my chances that we don't miss 8........it has a far better chance of going to 8.5 than 7.5. First of all, I just don't like Wade Miley and we successfully faded him last week when he gave up four bombs to the Reds. We had the over, and sadly enough all four jacks were solo shots. I don't see that being the case again tonight, since Atlanta pounded out 13 hits last night and scored late of the D-Backs bullpen, who has to use four pitchers last night. Some only threw a few pitches, but it's the warm-up, too. Atlanta will probably have everyone available, but Kimbrell did pitch last night. However, if I like this enough to play it 3* then we probably shouldn't be depending on late runs, although it's nice to know it's another option. Santana is simply a flyball pitcher, and when he makes mistakes they are up and leave the park, a la Wafe Miley. He's seriously regressed since the great start, and gave up runs to Boston, Milwaukee, and the Cardinals, all before having a good game against Miami. Even in that game he allowed 7 hits and three runs in six innings, and on the road teams are hitting .284 against him, which is almost 40 points higher than in the bigger stadium in Atlanta. Miley's HOME ERA is 6.57 with a WHIP of 1.51, which is well below pedestrian. Mark Wegner is behind the plate, and in two of his last three games there's been 10 or more runs scored. The one that DID NOT go over was at Houston with Gonzalez and Oberholtzer pitching, so I can accept that. In the last week, the D-Backs are hitting .303. Granted some of that was on the road, but last nights' low outcome was somewhat predictable in a first-game-back. The Braves SEEMED to have turned a corner, hitting .278 over the last week (which is a vast improvement) and obviously cranked out 13 hits last night. Lastly, this is a small park and even with the roof closed, it doesn't take much to put one out. In the end, I can see both teams getting to four, and I can see one team simply going off, so there are TONS of ways this is a winner, and we don't see the pitchers' duel that would keep it under. Plus, Miley is a superior hitting pitcher. Out.
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