6-13-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire Streakers

6/13/14 "UNDER" Streaker Umpire

CLE/BOS UN 8.5 -105 Hallion L11gms 4ov/7un 63.6% 1u

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1* Yankees +160
1* D’Backs +180
1* Rangers +180
1* Blue Jays -105
1* Mets -104
1* Twins +136

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF CLEMENT

7* Rays/Astros Under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Rivers

FRIDAY

500,000♦ pick on New York and San Diego to stay Under the Total with Bartelo Colon facing Andrew Cashner. Note both starting pitchers. The total is sitting at 7 as of 4:05 this morning here in Miami where I'm based.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Snitch

World Cup Play

Mexico +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost on Thursday in the NBA Finals with the Heat -3/Spurs 1st Half.

"Mr Chalk" had Np in MLB on Thursday.

For Friday in World Cup soccer E&B like Cameroon +$260/Mexico for $25 and $25 on the Draw +$220.

For Friday in MLB in the American League "Mr chalk" likes the Mariners -$200/Rangers.

Ben lee is 2-4-$134 for week thirty three 144-167-5 -$2938 through

"Mr Chalk" is 30-28 -$610 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[golden contender]

GC: WNBA Play

Friday Card has the Inter League 100% Totals System of the Month with a 30-4 Pitching Angle, there is also a 100% Blowout system a N.L. West Power system play and the NHL Finals Game 5 specific Historical system. MLB Sweeps on Thursday. Free WNBA Play.


The Free WNBA Play is on Minnesota. Game 603 at 7:35 eastern. Minnesota has several powerful angles that apply in this game. They have won and covered both times as a short road favorite and are 7-0 off 3 or more road games. In June games they are 17-4. When playing an opponent that allows 77 or more they have won 30 of the last 35 . Atlanta has scored 90+ in back to back games and that's sets them up in a negative system that pertains to small home dogs. They have lost 23 of 36 vs winning teams and 6 of the last 8 here at home vs Minnesota. So we will back the better team in Minnesota. On Friday we start the weekend big with a the Inter League Total of the Month from a Tremendous never lost totals system. There is a 30-4 pitching angles and several more big indicators. There is also the Big 5* Blowout system and the N.L. West 100% power system play with a 12-1 angle. Finally the Historical Game 5 Stanley Cup system play in the NHL. Message to Jump on now and cash big as we get the weekend started big with Cutting edge System winners that won't be seen anywhere else. For the free play take Minnesota in the WNBA. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Happy Home Underdogs

Home underdogs had a strong showing in Thursday's major league action, going 4-1 against the moneyline. Cincinnati (+115), Philadelphia (+105), Houston (+102) and Colorado (+102) all prevailed while the Mets (+120) were the only one to falter; home underdogs are just 128-166 on the season.

Double Digits in Denver

The host Rockies racked up the runs Thursday, cruising past Atlanta 10-3 for their 10th double-digit performance of the year - all but one of them coming at Coors Field. Colorado is 8-2 SU in those games and is 17-15-1 O/U at home in 2014 despite having the highest average total by a wide margin.

Felix Factor

The Texas Rangers (+182, 7) face their longest odds in more than four years as they visit Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners. The Rangers haven't been this big an underdog since May 1, 2010, when they defeated Hernandez at Safeco Field 6-3 despite being installed at a whopping +194.

Pitching Notes

Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray is in the midst of a trend reversal as he prepares to face the visiting New York Yankees (+167, 7.5). Gray opened the season 2-5-1 O/U but has been one of the league's strongest Over plays in five starts since, going 4-0-1 O/U.

Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw has been strangely consistent this season, recording exactly nine strikeouts in six of his eight starts this season. The Dodgers are 4-2 S/U and 3-3 O/U in those outings entering Friday's showdown with visiting Arizona (+190, 6.5).

Hitting Notes

Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon broke out of a 4-for-24 slump Thursday with three hits, including a homer, in the rout of Atlanta. Colorado is 6-5 against the moneyline and 9-2 O/U when Blackmon goes deep entering Friday's tilt with host San Francisco (-137, 7.5).

Astros rookie first baseman Jon Singleton swatted his third home run of the season in Thursday's 5-4 win over Arizona. Houston is an impressive 7-3 S/U and 5-5 O/U in 10 games since Singleton was summoned from the minors.

Totals Streak

Toronto Blue Jays (0-6-1 O/U): The offensive woes continue for the American League East leaders, who have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six games - and not surprisingly, they lost all five. Toronto is s34-31-3 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

Expect a tight one between the host Chicago White Sox (-129, 8) and the Kansas City Royals, making a Chicago win by exactly one run (+350) a potentially strong play. The teams have played four one-run games in their last 10 meetings in Chicago, with the White Sox winning three of them.

Injury Notes

Arizona manager Kirk Gibson says slugger Mark Trumbo (foot) is still three weeks away from participating in baseball activities. The Diamondbacks are 25-23 SU, 19-27-2 O/U and +294 units in Trumbo's absence.

Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury left Thursday's game after aggravating his right hip injury, but expects to be back in the lineup Friday. Ellsbury is riding a 16-game hitting streak entering Friday's showdown with Oakland.

Weather Watch

Citizens Bank Park will see wind blowing out to center field for Friday's game between host Philadelphia (-113, 8.5) and the Cubs. Teams averaged nine runs and 1.95 home runs in 20 games under similar conditions in 2013; scoring was up over the park average, but homers were down.

Umpire Note of the Day

The road team is 10-2 in umpire Mike DiMuro's last 12 games calling the balls and strikes. DiMuro will be behind home plate for Friday's showdown between Toronto (-102, 9) and host Baltimore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Soccer

3-Unit Play. Take Spain -.5 (-120) over Netherlands (3 p.m., Friday, June 13)

I don't see this Netherlands team doing much in Brazil. Holland's make-up of their current squad just doesn't sell me on them. Comparatively,, Spain are the collectively better unit who have meshed as one and know what it is like to play as a team on the big stage. They are more cohesive as a group and are better together on the national level. Too many times Holland is seen as a bunch of stars who struggle to play together in major tournaments. This is going to be a cagey match, just as it was when these two met in the final of the 2010 World Cup. Neither wants to begin their group play schedule with a loss, however the Spanish' style of play works better in this type of situation. They will have the bulk of possession and the most opportunities to net a decisive goal. That is exactly the result, a 1-0 feisty victory for the reigning champs.


6-Unit Play. Take Switzerland Pk (-140) over Ecuador (12 p.m., Sunday, June 15)

With so many more notable European teams playing at the World Cup, I think a lot of people will look past a Swiss team that is a difficult team to defeat. Remember, in their first group play match against eventual champions Spain at the 2010 World Cup, Switzerland won that match. And while I don't think the Swiss will do any better than second place in the group with France taking the top spot, Switzerland is the clear choice for me as the runner up in group E. I like this spot for them to begin their World Cup with a win over Ecuador, a team that has shown the inability to win away from their hugely important home pitch advantage where they play at high altitude in Quito. That being said, Ecuador will be affected the most early on in this tournament before they get a chance to get their feet under them at normal sea level. The Swiss come through with three points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NHL Finals - Game 5

LOS ANGELES -½ +104 over N.Y. Rangers

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08

Regulation only. If you’ve ever watched a skilled prize fighter jab away at a lesser opponent you know it’s only a matter of time before that skilled fighter throws that knockout punch. That analogy can be applied here. The Kings have no interest in going back to New York for a Game 6. The Kings have clearly been the dominant team and the Rangers can consider themselves extremely fortunate to have survived that third period onslaught in Game 4 in which they were outshot 15-1. The Rangers have had their moments in this series but the longer it has gone on the more dominant the Kings have become. One could easily argue that Game 4 was the Kings’ best game of the series but they’re not satisfied yet.

So much has been made of the Rangers so-called rotten luck prior to Game 4 in the final. But were they unlucky when they drew the Philadelphia Flyers, perhaps the worst team in this year’s playoffs, in the first round? Were they less-than-fortunate when the Pittsburgh Penguins spit the bit against them in Round 2? Were they victims of misfortune when Carey Price went down in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final? Stanley Cup finals are not dictated by luck. They’re dictated by which team is better and since this series started, that gap between the Kings and Rangers has become a massive chasm. The Kings did not win Games 1 and 2 because they were lucky. They won because once they got themselves in a hole, they imposed their will on the game and took complete control. The Rangers did not win Game 4 because they were lucky. They won because their goaltender turned in an all-world performance. The Kings have dominated the faceoff circle, they have dominated puck possession and they have dominated shots on net. The Rangers are actually outhitting the Kings in this series by a margin of 141-140 but pay no attention to that, as the Kings are finding that it’s difficult to initiate contact when you have the puck on your stick all the time. Why would you ever need to hit your opponent when you’re starting out with the puck the majority of the time and controlling it for ridiculously long periods of time? The Rangers are simply not in the same class as these Kings and L.A.’s killer instinct figures to be on full display here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Minnesota @ DETROIT

Minnesota +143 over DETROIT

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.86)

The Tigers are not playing well at all. They just dropped two of three against the White Sox and have now lost six of their past seven series. Aside from their series loss to the South Side, Detroit also has series losses to Cleveland, Seattle, Texas and Toronto (they split with Oakland 2-2). Overall during that stretch, Detroit has just seven wins in its last 23 games. Drew Smyly has been skipped or pushed back in the rotation several times this season due to off days and postponements. It is unclear whether the sporadic usage has negatively affected Smyly's performance, though it made him available for three relief appearances in addition to his nine starts. With four pure quality outings and three disasters, Smyly has shown a tendency toward extreme outcomes. Smyly threw just 99 innings in 2012 and just 76 last season working out of the pen. Now his stamina comes into question, as it always does with relievers that transition to starting. Over his past five starts covering 27 innings, Smyly has a 4.67 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP and he’s walked 11. He also has a 42% fly-ball bias profile. As a favorite in this range against a very good hitting team, Smyly is too big a risk.

After being drafted in the first round of 2009, Kyle Gibson put up some decent stats at AA and AAA in 2010. But he struggled in 2011 and missed 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Gibson has posted a 5-5 record since winning a spot in the rotation at the start of this year and that .500 record is probably very accurate in terms of what to expect from Gibson going forward. Gibson has decent control but strikes out very few batters. Since his swing and miss rate is league-average, it’s likely he’ll see a strikeout growth in the near future. Gibson does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, as his 54% groundball rate will attest to. He also has an elite 17% line-drive rate. At 26, Gibson still has time to grow. For now, though, with so few walks and strikeouts, he’s at the mercy of the batted ball gods. As his hit%, strand%, and hr/f fluctuate, Gibson’s results will suffer/benefit accordingly so once again we’ll turn to value. As a favorite Gibson has risk but as a pooch that’s very capable of breezing through a lineup because of his outstanding control and groundball rate, he’s very playable and that applies here.


Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE

Cincinnati +115 over MILWAUKEE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

The Reds are healthy again and just took two of three from the Dodgers while outscoring them in the last two games, 9-1. That was against Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu and now the Reds take a step down in class when facing Matt Garza. Frankly, we have no interest in Garza whatsoever as the chalk and neither should you. Garza’s poor surface stats (4.42 ERA – 1.35 WHIP) are well supported by his poor under the surface stats. In his last start, Garza walked five and struck out one. His groundball rate has been in decline for three years running and is now at 38% after 13 starts. Garza has allowed three runs or more in seven of his past eight starts and he’s been able to pick up some wins because of the outstanding run support he’s received. That could definitely change here.

One of the unchecked boxes on Homer Bailey’s profile heading into 2014 was consistency. Big talent; yes. Pedigree and arsenal; no doubt. Flashes of brilliance; certainly. But could he ever put it together for a whole season? He did so in 2013 but he has struggled mightily so far in 2014. Before you jump ship, take note of the outstanding skills that Bailey possesses that has been masked by extreme bad luck. No starter has a worse combination of hit % and hr/f misfortune than Bailey: 42% hit%, 29% hr/f. Fact is, Bailey has a strong BB/K split of 25/70 in 78 innings. He also has an outstanding 53%/18%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. If that’s not enough, he has an above average swing and miss rate of 12% to go along with an xERA of 3.48, which is more than a full run lower than his actual ERA. Buy low targets don’t get much better than this and we’re all over it.


Kansas City @ CHICAGO

Kansas City +119 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)

The Royals have won four in a row and have outscored the opposition 23-11 over that span. Kansas City represents one of those odd anomalies in the game in that they have the third best road BA in the AL but they have the third worst road SLG in the league. That doesn’t make a lot of sense but those things even out over time and it suggests that the Royals may be on the verge of scoring plenty more. They’ll now face Jose Quintana in this hitter’s park. Over the past two seasons, Quintana has a 4.11 ERA against the Royals in five starts. Quintana’s lack of a dominant offering is offset by his four-pitch mix and strong command vs. both LH and RH bats. Quintana will rarely dominate and he’ll rarely throw a disaster but the South Side has lost seven of Quintana's past 10 games and one of those defeats was back in Kansas City on May 21. Quintana is serviceable but we would not trust him as the chalk in this spot.

Jeremy Guthrie is not high on anyone’s list of dependable starting pitchers. For whatever reason, however, Guthrie has put up some solid numbers against this group. In fact, in 267 combined AB’s, current White Sox have just 59 hits against Guthrie for a BA of just .221. The Royals have one of the major’s best pens and that certainly adds to their appeal here. The Royals always seem to play well at U.S. Cellular. They’ve won seven of the past eight games at this venue and now they’re heating up heading into the opener of this series. Great value on a very live pooch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Friday MLB Team Total

CINCINNATI REDS – OVER 3.5 RUNS (@BOL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

SOCCER World Cup – Mexico vs. Cameroon

Some reports are saying that it rained a bit in Natal early on the day, so this contest won’t be pretty to watch. I understand that Mexico has to be the favorite in here, but they are clearly overrated w/ odds between +115 and +130.

The storyline surrounding this contest is all about Cameroon’s (usual) off the field problems:

“Cameroon’s World Cup squad have refused to board a plane due to take them to Brazil for the World Cup because of disputes over bonuses, according to French sports newspaper L’Equipe. The newspaper’s website claims that the squad have instead remained at their hotel in the Cameroonian capital Yaoundé, while reporters have camped outside the Cameroon Football Federation headquarters awaiting further information.”

The matchup between these two teams is clearly favorable for a low scoring affair – both teams don’t use pure wingers, so there won’t be much width and depth on the wings. Instead, they use their wing-backs quite often but both teams are aware of it. Cameroon has a powerful midfield unit but lacks the proper talent to create open-plays to score. Mexico has more talent but still, they are struggling to score goals lately – they failed to score a single goal in L2 friendly games against Bosnia and Portugal. Both teams will pack the center of the field with 3 or 4 players.

My Leans in here:

Under 2 (I really hate this line of 2 goals, I would love to get some 2.25 line)
Over Prop in bookings (wet field is a great spot for some missed tackles)
Potential Plays will be released 15 minutes before kick-off.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Proposition: Over 4.5

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup Game of the Day: Netherlands vs. Spain

Netherlands vs. Spain (+450, -120, Draw +240)

The Netherlands and Spain are no strangers when it comes to World Cup competition as they prepare to square off Friday in their respective tournament openers. The Spaniards vanquished their Dutch counterparts four years ago on an extra-time goal from Andres Iniesta in one of the more thrilling World Cup finals in recent memory. The teams also combined for a World Cup championship-record 28 fouls, including 14 yellow cards.

Spain comes in as a prohibitive favorite, not only having prevailed in 2010 but as the two-time European champion. But the Spaniards should expect a major challenge from a Netherlands side that rolled through the qualifying stage, racking up 34 goals en route to a record of nine wins, zero losses and one draw. Spain was no slouch in its qualifying stage, posting six victories and two draws despite seeing many of its stars moving past their respective primes.

WORLD RANKINGS: Netherlands: No. 15, Spain: No. 1.

KEY INJURIES: Netherlands - MF Kevin Strootman is out with a torn ACL; F Robin van Persie is playing through a groin injury but says he'll be okay for the tournament. Spain - GK Victor Valdes was left off the club after injuring his knee in March; F Diego Costa says he has fully recovered from a hamstring injury.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "We've got a rematch of the 2010 Final, and although Spain look less sharp then four years ago, they still remain a formidable opponent. The Dutch come into this game with a lot of confidence. They have made it clear they're not intimidated by 'La furia roja' and are confident they can get a result. Holland made it to the WC scoring a remarkable 34 goals while the Spaniards conceded a mere three goals in qualifying. This should be a great match-up." Covers Expert Footy Tipster

ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: Things looked bleak after the Dutch dropped all three of their group matches to meekly bow out of Euro 2012. But fans breathed easy after the Netherlands ripped through qualifying, a stretch that included a pair of one-sided triumphs over Romania and an 8-1 evisceration of Hungary. Robben is joined by fellow national hero van Persie, while the emergence of Jonathan De Guzman and Bruno Martins-Indi should provide an infusion of young talent the Dutch need to compete.

ABOUT SPAIN: As expected, Iniesta will be the key to Spain's quest for a fourth straight major international championship. He was the man of the match in both the 2010 World Cup victory and the Euro 2012 triumph, and his creativity and versatility should give the Dutch fits. He'll be joined by a who's-who of international stars, including Xavi, Fernando Torres, Diego Costa, David Villa and Cesc Fabregas, who set up Iniesta's winning goal in the 116th minute of the last World Cup final.

TRENDS:

* The teams have met three times in the 21st Century, with the Netherlands owning a 2-1 edge.
* Spain has gone three games without allowing a goal, blanking Italy, Bolivia and El Salvador.
* Costa racked up 36 goals across all games for Atletico Madrid, La Liga champions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Late Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Yankees at Athletics

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Phelps (1-4, 4.88 ERA)
OAK: Gray (6-2, 2.83 ERA)

Previous series results: The Yankees continue their West Coast swing after pulling off a three-game sweep of the Mariners. In six of the last seven games, New York has limited its opponents to three runs or less. The Athletics return home following a 5-4 road swing, as Oakland avoided a sweep by beating Los Angeles, 7-1 on Wednesday as +125 underdogs.

What to watch for: Oakland has won eight of the past 10 meetings with New York, while taking two of three from the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this month. The Yankees are rolling on the road of late by winning eight of their past 11 on the highway, but New York is 1-6 in Phelps’ previous seven starts. The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in Gray’s last five outings, while Oakland has won just one of his past four trips to the mound.

Rangers at Mariners

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Probable Pitchers:
TEX: Tepesch (2-2, 4.91 ERA)
SEA: Hernandez (8-1, 2.39 ERA)

Previous series results: The Mariners put together a fantastic 6-1 road swing, but came back to Safeco Field and lost all three games to the Yankees. Seattle has compiled a 4-8 record the last 12 home games, while plating just seven runs in the New York series. The Rangers snapped a four-game skid with Wednesday’s 6-0 shutout of the Marlins, but Texas concluded its homestand at 3-6.

What to watch for: Texas and Seattle are hooking up for the tenth time already this season tonight, as the Rangers hold a 5-4 edge. The Mariners have won each of Hernandez’s last seven starts, but Seattle is 0-2 in his two starts against Texas this season. Tepesch has allowed nine runs in his past two outings, both losses by the Rangers. Texas has compiled a 5-3 record in the past eight road series openers, while winning seven of its previous 11 away contests.

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

Probable Pitchers:
ARZ: Anderson (5-0, 3.14 ERA)
LAD: Kershaw (5-2, 3.17 ERA)

Previous series results: The Dodgers won four of the first five games on their road trip, but Los Angeles dropped the final two contests at Cincinnati. L.A. was limited to just one run in those two defeats, as six of the seven games on that away swing finished ‘under’ the total. The Diamondbacks dropped three of four games to the Astros, including a 5-4 extra-innings loss last night in Houston.

What to watch for: Anderson beat Kershaw and the Dodgers last month, 18-7 as a +160 home underdog, as the D-Backs have won all five of Anderson’s starts this season. Los Angeles has captured eight of 11 matchups with Arizona already, including a 2-1 record at Dodger Stadium. Since getting racked at Arizona, the Dodgers have won three of Kershaw’s last four starts, but Los Angeles is 1-2 in his three home outings for -1.6 units.

Rockies at Giants

Probable Pitchers:
COL: De La Rosa (6-5, 4.04 ERA)
SF: Lincecum (5-4, 4.97 ERA)

Previous series results: The Rockies finished up a disastrous homestand at 3-7, but Colorado managed to win the final two games against Atlanta. It’s been a tough stretch for Colorado, who has lost 13 of its past 17 contests to fall four games below the .500 mark. The Giants avoided a sweep by routing the Nationals on Thursday, 7-1, as San Francisco was limited to just five runs in the first three losses to Washington.

What to watch for: These two NL West rivals have split eight meetings this season, while the Giants have won two of three matchups at home. Colorado has struggled away from Coors Field recently, dropping 12 of its past 15 road contests, while going winless in its last five away series openers. The Giants are 6-1 in Lincecum’s previous seven home outings, but the righty allowed 18 earned runs in four starts against the Rockies last season.