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CHICAGO CUBS (-105) over Philadelphia
7:00 p.m. ET
Tough extra inning loss for the FREE game yesterday so let’s bounce back today by going against one of baseball’s worst pitchers. Philadelphia’s Roberto Hernandez has lost his last 3 starts and has posted a 5.06 ERA this season. He lasted only four innings his last time out and that is nothing new for the righthander. He is 6-15 in his last 21 decisions dating back to last year. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta is coming off his best outing of the season. He matched his season high with seven strikeouts and limited Miami to three hits and no runs over six innings. Philly is playing well but still has one of the worst team batting averages in baseball and Arrieta quiets them again today. Take the Cubbies.
1923 Tampa Bay (1st 5)
923 Tampa Bay -120
917 Over 9 (+100) Min-Det
919 Under 8.5 (-120) -Cle-Bos
910 St Louis -110
921 Over 7.5 (-120) Kc-Cws
915 Toronto -110
901 Over 8 (-120) -Chc-Phi
Larry Ness' 10* 100% Division G.O.M. (9-4, 69% TY!)
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET.
The Baltimore Orioles are hoping to make a move in the AL East. They beat the Jays and Mark Buehrle 4-2 Thursday and sit 34-31 (tied with the Yanks) but still 3 1/2 back of the first-place Jays (39-29). The Toronto Blue Jays made more 'noise' than any team in MLB prior to the 2013 season and expectations were "through the roof." However, the Jays were a HUGE flop, going 74-88 to finish 23 games out of 1st-place in the AL East. The Jays were a last-place team and ended the year minus-$1,080 vs the moneyline, 20th out of 30 teams.
However, despite a three-game losing streak (and FIVE losses in its last six), Toronto remains in first-place (see above) and its moneyline mark of plus-$836 ranks third-best in all of MLB. Toronto's offense has ‘cooled off’ in losing FIVE of six, scoring just NINE runs while batting only .208. However, getting a chance to hit against Ubaldo Jimenez, may be “just what the doctor ordered” for this slumping lineup (more in a bit). Taking the mound for the Jays will be Drew Hutchison. Eyebrows were raised when the Blue Jays announced Hutchison would enter the season as the club's No. 2 starter. His 2014 season debut (on April 1) marked his first start since having Tommy John surgery in 2012 (he missed the entire 2013 season).
Hutchison is 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA over 13 starts in 2014 (Toronto is 7-6) but one must look CLOSER. He’s been awful at home, going 1-3 with an 8.72 ERA in five starts (team is 1-4) but excellent on the road, where he’s 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA in eight outings (Jays are 6-2). He’s also pitched VERY well against the Orioles in his young career, posting a 1.50 ERA in four starts. He owns just one win (no losses) and it’s hard to blame him for the fact that Toronto is 0-3 in his no decisions.
Baltimore's 4.57 ERA from its starting pitchers in 2013 was tied for 26th in the MLB and among the reasons the club failed to reach the playoffs after doing so in 2012. To make that move in the AL East, Baltimore’s starting pitching needs to continue its recent trend of outstanding performances. Baltimore has won EIGHT of 12 to pull within 3 1/2 games of Toronto and Kevin Gausman was the latest Orioles starter to impress, tossing six innings of one-run ball in Thursday's series-opening 4-2 victory. He became the >11th starter in 14 games to allow two or less ERs, with the rotation posting a 1.40 ERA in those 11 games.
However, expecting Jimenez to pitch well here, is a ‘pipe dream.’ The Orioles hoped that they had addressed some of their pitching woes from 2013 in the winter with the addition of Jimenez, who signed a $50 million, four-year contract Feb 19. Few will forget Jimenez's 19-8 (2.88 ERA) season of 2010 with Colorado but not much had gone right for him, since. That all changed last year though, as he was 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA in 32 starts for Cleveland (team was 21-11 with his moneyline of plus-$1,263 ranking FOURTH-best!). Jimenez finished last year winning his final SIX starts, posting a 1.09 ERA and a 51-7 KW ratio.
However, Jimenez enters this contest 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in 13 starts here in 2014. The Orioles are 3-10 in those starts (minus-$662 vs the moneyline) and I'm pretty sure that's NOT exactly what Baltimore expected from him. Worse yet, he's been just AWFUL here at Camden Yards, going 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA in six home starts with Baltimore going 0-6 for a PERFECT 100% “go-against.” Making matters worse, poor run support has been an issue for Jimenez lately, as the offense has backed him with just SEVEN total runs over his last six, overall starts (Orioles are not surprisingly, 1-5)!
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