6-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Against the Number

World Cup

Ivory Coast +160
Greece Vs Colombia Under 2 (-114)
Costa Rica Vs Uruguay Over 2.5 (+130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at San Antonio

The Sparks head to San Antonio tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games versus the Stars. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

SATURDAY, JUNE 14 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Los Angeles at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 118.361; San Antonio 113.608 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 154 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -155 over Colorado Rockies
(System Record: 42-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 42-32

Hockey Crusher
New York Rangers +146 over LA Kings - pending
no play
(Playoff Record: system 25-2: overall 25-18-1, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 116-92-3

Basketball Crusher
no play
(Playoff Record: system 20-1: overall 20-19-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 98-104-8

Soccer Crusher
Greece + Colombia UNDER 2
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 589-21, lost last game)
Overall Record: 589-492-85

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Houston Astros +100 over Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals -118 over St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers -135 over Arizona Dbacks


Hockey
no play


Basketball
no play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Milwaukee Brewers -135

The Reds will be pitching Latos for the first time this year who is coming off a bumb knee. Gallardo is always a great pitcher at home and the Brewers usually are money in the bank at home. Cincinnati is not generating runs this year either. The Reds will probably only allow Latos to go 4 innings or so before they go to their bullpen which is a bit shaky. Take the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fading Teams
By ASA

Let's take a look at a couple of 1st place teams in baseball and assess how they got there and where they're going. Milwaukee and Detroit got off to fantastic starts this season but are currently trending downward are 'play against' teams right now. We see this situation arise every year when teams such as these start well and then become over-valued by the public. The Brewers and Tigers are currently valued like elite (1st place) teams, but are not really playing well of late even though the rest of the division has not been able to pass them up (yet).


Detroit is 6-16 their last 22 games after starting 27-12 and they were favored by -120 or more in 11 of those 16 most recent losses. That run has left the "Tiger-backers" with some empty wallets. Another sign Detroit is not as good as most people think is their record against top level opponents. The Tigers are just 11-13 against teams in our Top 10 Power Rating.

Much like Detroit, Milwaukee started the season 20-7, but have gone just 19-20 since, with seven losses as a favorite of -120 or more since May 1. Again, like Detroit the Brewers are just 2-5 against Top 10 teams this season.

Diminishing starting pitching has been a key factor for each club as four out of their five starters have much worse numbers since their first 6 starts of the season. Another reason both teams remain over-priced is the fact that both pitching rotations still have good overall season statistics and each has several established starters. Bullpens have been shaky of late as well, Detroit owns a 6.12 bullpen ERA in the last 10 games, Milwaukee at 4.40 in the last 10 games.

Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitchers:
Lohse 1st 6 ERA: 2.70 Since: 3.60
Estrada 1st 6 ERA: 3.13 Since: 5.83
Gallardo 1st 6 ERA: 1.91 Since: 5.40
Peralta 1st 6 ERA: 2.04 Since: 3.73

Exception to the rule:
Garza 1st 6 ERA: 5.00 Since: 3.95

Detroit Tigers Starting Pitchers:
Scherzer 1st 6 ERA: 2.08 Since: 4.47
Verlander 1st 6 ERA: 2.48 Since: 6.27
Porcello 1st 6 ERA: 3.49 Since: 4.62
Smyly 1st 6 ERA: 2.96 Since: 4.67

Exception to the rule:
Sanchez 1st 6 ERA: 2.89 Since: 1.59

Both teams have a few tough series coming up and could provide some great opportunities to play against them. Detroit kicks off a difficult stretch of series' against Minnesota, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Texas. The Tigers have a losing record against three of those four opponents this year, besting only Kansas City. They are just 4-10 against Minnesota, Cleveland, and Texas combined.

On Friday Milwaukee starts a three game series against Cincinnati. They already dropped three of four against the Reds in early May in the only series between the division rivals so far. The Brew Crew never scored more than three runs in any of those four games. They also have series' coming up against Arizona (1-2 vs. Diamondbacks this year) and Washington (10-3 in their last 10).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, playing on back-to-back days
47-10 since 1997. ( 82.5% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Midweek Series - Five Key Takeaways

It is time to again review the MLB Weekday series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you way ahead of the game in the days ahead.

A’s – And all those catches and throws that were not highlights…

The plan for a couple of weeks had been to save the Oakland defense as a topic heading into this weekend, when the gap between the A’s in the field and the Yankees could be used as a prime example of how under-valued that aspect of the game continues to be in the betting markets. Then Yoenis Cespedes made that brilliant throw to nail Howie Kendrick at home plate on Tuesday night, which went viral across the sports mediaverse, and the timing becomes even more pertinent. Yes, that was a remarkable play, but it is far from being the only one. Just 24 hours later Coco Crisp was reaching above the wall to take a HR away from Josh Hamilton, and Cespedes was at it again, throwing out Albert Pujols at 3B. Already this season Cespedes has thrown out three Angels at the plate. Welcome to the Oakland defense.

The A’s sport the best run differential in the Majors by a wide margin, and the defense has been a big part of that ride. They are #1 in PADE, and consider how much that .266 BABIP has helped to make their pitching staff look good – the league average is .294, and no other team is lower than .276. When the Yankees come to town this weekend, the defensive gap is considerable – they are allowing a .306 BABIP, and are #27 in PADE.

Now for some focus on how much impact the defenses have had on the bottom line. The Yankee pitchers have been striking out more batters (8.6-per-9) than the A’s (7.5-per-9), and allowing fewer BB (2.5-per-9 vs. 2.8), yet sport a 3.95 ERA, vs. the Oakland 2.83. The difference in HR rate of the home ball-parks indeed makes a difference, but it is the defense that tells the tale – when that is removed New York wins the xFIP comparison by 3.51 to 3.72. That xFIP metric tells us that the A’s defense has been worth almost one full run per game.

It is not a 66-game fluke. In 2013 the Oakland defense was #1 in PADE, #2 in BABIP allowed, and had an ERA of 3.56 vs. an xFIP of 4.05. In 2012 it was a #2 in both PADE and BABIP, with the ERA at 3.50 vs. an xFIP of 4.20. The defense had been very good those past two seasons, this time around they have elevated to great.

Some of the keys to the impact are things that are difficult to statistically measure. First is the confidence of the pitching staff to challenge hitters, knowing the quality of the gloves behind them. That is worth a lot. Second will be the lack of aggressiveness by opposing base-runners as the season progresses, having not only seen the highlight reels, but also the base scouting reports that show 20 assists for the OF already. Cespedes has nine of them, more than 13 other MLB teams, including, by the way, those Yankees.

Phillies – And when Ryan Howard sits…

If you are a subscriber to Steamwire (https://experts.***********/Store/Steamwire/Landing), and here comes the usual refrain – yes, you should be - there was a “Padres-Phillies Marketology” send-out yesterday morning that shows the value of the service, in terms of isolating value situations that you can take advantage of. Philadelphia was sitting Ryan Howard, with John Mayberry playing 1B, and there came all of the San Diego money – to the point at which you could have backed the Phillies at as high as +104 at first pitch, 20 cents from where they were sitting before the lineups were announced.

The Steamwire send noted the market over-reaction with a simple comparison – Howard was at .238/.308/.414 for the season, and .206/.268/.413 vs. left-handers, while Mayberry’s season was .242/.338/.500, and the lefty split .273/.385/.545. And no, this is not being written to showcase Mayberry on his big Thursday. Instead, it is about how little Howard actually brings to the table these days, something many market segments still do not fully appreciate.

The decline has been a steady one, after that 2005-11 cycle in which he entered each season as an MVP candidate. But that current slash line does not lie. His current K% is 30.8, well above his career 28.1 (only Mark Reynolds, Junior Lake and Danny Espinosa have been worse), while his BB% of 9.0 is far below the career 11.6. Pitchers are not afraid to throw him strikes anymore, especially with only 16.9 percent of his fly-balls leaving the yard, compared to a career 27.1. And this is happening at a position in which a team needs production if they are going to compete – the MLB average at 1B is .254/.329/.437. If we use WAR as the guideline, of the 34 players at the position that have at least 150 PA’s, Howard rates #27. How bad is that? He slots right below Brayan Pena and Ike Davis, and right above Justin Smoak and Yonder Alonso. Yet the Phillies continue to send him out there almost every day.

As for Mayberry, not only has he considerably out-hit Howard vs. left-handers this season (now at .324/.419/.703 after Thursday’s outburst), but in 2013 it was .240/.296/.460 to Howard’s .173/.218/.321, and in 2012 it was .271/.317/.494 compared to .173/.226/.378. Mayberry may only have 41 career starts at 1B, but given that Howard is below average defensively it is not likely that anything would be lost. The bottom line is that Howard should almost never start against a left-hander at this stage, and when he does sit, the Phillies may actually become a better team.

Orioles – Chris Tillman has been worse than you think

Off of back-to-back seasons of 9-3/2.93 and 16-7/3.71, Tillman appeared to be on his way as a solid MLB starter. As such his 5-3/4.91 does not set off major alarms just yet, especially after seemingly suffering a “bad luck” loss to the Red Sox in his last outing, a 1-0 in which he contributed six decent IP. But there may be something to see here.

You do not have to go far to find the warning signs – Tillman’s K’s-per-9 are down from 7.8 to 6.8 over 2013, while his BB-per-9 are up from 3.0 to 4.1. A wrong-direction change of more than one full outcome per-9 in the each of those categories is more than a warning sign; it is a red flag. To help create the proper perspective let’s look at a more advanced metric, of the 104 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his xFIP of 4.75 checks in at #101 (and one of the three below him, Chris Young, continues to be someone that you need to disregard in that particular category).

Tillman’s W/L mark is meaningless – twice this season he left after one inning, having allowed five runs or more, and was not tagged with a defeat, and he actually got a “W” in Toronto in a game that he allowed seven ER over 5 2/3 IP, including three HR’s. The fact that he held Boston to a single run in his last outing also should carry little meaning – 10 of the 27 batters that he faced reached via a hit or a BB, and the run he allowed was the only one the Red Sox scored in that entire series, getting shutout by Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen and the Baltimore bullpen. Tillman dealt to a 1.43 WHIP in that game; Boston managed only a 0.52 over the other 21 innings of that set.

There may have been a turning point that we can look back to. Tillman actually opened a solid 2-1/1.71 through four starts, but that fourth game was a laborious 122 pitches over just five frames in Fenway. He lost his way that day and it has not come back – in 10 starts since then it has been an ugly 6.57 ERA, with a 1.74 WHIP. During that span no full-time starter in the Majors has been worse, but the fact that he went 3-2 through those games, and the Orioles were 6-4, has kept it well under the market radar.

Rays – Could there be a “Buy Time” for Jake Odorizzi?

It is no longer a secret that 2014 is going to be a “lost season” in Tampa Bay, and many of the issues facing the Rays have been dealt with on this page, far ahead of the market curve. But now the prices are catching down to them, which could actually lead to some play-on situations over the course of the summer, particularly when Odorizzi takes the mound.

If a pitcher is sitting at 2-7/4.85, and the team behind him has the worst record in the Majors, there are not going to be many takers. But there are a couple of items that might help to cash tickets at what should be more than fair value. First is the belief that a Joe Maddon team is going to compete to the end of the schedule, regardless of their place in the standings. Second is that Odorizzi offers much more than his bottom line indicates, and is throwing the kind of pitches you can win with at this level.

First note that Odorizzi turned in seasons of 11-3/2.93 and 9-6/3.33 with two different AAA teams, Omaha (Royals) and Durham (Rays), and 231 2/3 IP at that level is a nice development tool for someone that is only 24. As for this season, that 2-7/4.85 ERA is not a good indicator. Of the 105 pitchers with at least 60 IP, his 3.50 xFIP rates #39, between #38 Henderson Alvarez and #40 James Shields. Those two are a combined 10-6/3.39. Get the picture?

How has it gone so wrong? Odorizzi checks in at #3 in K’s-per-9, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish, but when the ball has been put into play he has not had much fortune – a .350 BABIP that is far above the league norm of .294, with only four pitchers having a higher clip. When runners have reached base they have also come around too often – a 68.9 LOB% that rates #89, and can also regress towards league average over time. While the Tampa offense is not going to be anything special, over the course of the season Odorizzi should get more than the 3.2 of run support he has had so far (there have been three starts in which he allowed one run or none and did not get a win).

Cubs – How bad has Edwin Jackson really been?

There have been a couple of takes here in recent weeks using DBF (Difficulty of Batters Faced) as a metric for finding value on or against starting pitchers, now that there are enough box scores for that chart to matter. Jackson provides us with a prime example of how that factor can be used.

Jackson sits at 82-95/4.48 over 1,518 2/3 MLB innings, a traveling-circus tour in which he has had starts while wearing eight different uniforms. He has shown just enough flashes for teams to continue to give him opportunities, and then enough inconsistency for those tryouts to not last very long (of his 248 starts, 63 with Tampa Bay was a high). He finally landed with the Cubs LY, sporting a dismal 8-18/4.98, and so far this season it has been more of the same, a 4-6/4.70. But this time around it comes with a catch – he has actually been even worse than that.

Of the 105 pitchers that have worked at least 60 IP, Jackson’s DBF is dead last. He has faced hitters that have generated a .232/.292/.355 slash line, but has allowed them to produce at a .273/.348/.416. Let’s use some perspective to better illustrate what that means.

Only San Diego has a lower batting average than .232. The Padres are also the only team with an OBP of less than .292. And only the Padres and Mets have a lower SLG than .356. Jackson’s competition has been that weak. If we compare to individual batters, of the 168 qualifiers he has faced the equivalent of #142 for AVG (Dustin Ackley at .234), #145 in OBP (Mark Reynolds at .292), and #137 in SLG (Will Myers at .354).

Jackson is once again likely to draw some interest from contenders looking for an arm – it has happened before. Perhaps this time it shouldn’t.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) after shutting out their opponent against opponent after a combined score of 2 runs or less
36-24 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.0% | 27.3 units )
2-7 this year. ( 22.2% | -4.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 64-29 (+32.9 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.5) , OPPONENT (3.6)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Greece +440 over Columbia

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 4.40)

June 14 - 12:00 PM EST. An exciting showdown between the #8 ranked Colombians and 12th ranked Greece. Colombia came to the FIFA World Cup by way of exceptional play in their CONMEBOL qualification leg. Los Cafeteros have been able to force draws with Argentina and defeat Uruguay and Ecuador. Most recently, in an international friendly, the Colombians were able to procure an impressive 2-0 victory over highly touted Belgium. It is clearly indicative that Colombia can contend against top flight squads but they are overpriced here against this outstanding defensive opponent.

What is shocking is the disparity between Colombia and Greece by the oddsmakers. This is rather overwhelming considering Greece comes from the pedigree of UEFA qualification, accumulating twenty-five points on their way to qualification. Greece attained a berth to the 2014 World Cup by virtue of a play-off with Romania, where Greece emerged victorious in the aggregate. The thorn in the Greek side was an underrated Bosnia and Herzegovnia club. The Greeks allowed just four goals in their 10 group-stage games, three of which came in a single match against group winner, Bosnia. In typical Greek style, they won six qualifiers 1-0. Expect the Greeks to be as stingy as ever and give them a legit shot of pulling this upset.


England vs. Italy to Draw +202

Risking 1 units - To Win: 2.02)

June 14 - 6:00 PM EST. This is another European showdown that will certainly shape the outcome of Group D. The English and the Italians most recently met in 2012 at the EURO Tournament, where England would fall to Italy 4-2. The Italians are led by Andrea Pirlo, Daniele De Rossi and legendary goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Buffon was the catalyst and foundation of the 2006 championship run capped by off by Italy surrendering only one goal in the tournament. Pirlo is the secret weapon of Italy and he is a great concern for the English, who may be without Arsenal’s Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for the duration of the tournament. Both these teams are mirrored in rankings and have the potential to go deep in to the tournament. This opening contest is a tone setter for both squads and may feature a fair amount of quality chances and opportunities for both ends to mark.

However, this contest has every prospect of seeing multiple or no equalizers. The odds favor Italy to win this match-up by virtue of past accomplishments and recent matches but the English have Joe Hart, Daniel Sturridge and Frank Lampard. This is just the tip of the iceberg of talent that the English have on their squad entering this World Cup. Unmistakably, this contest will be a deciding factor for both teams that should earn a win against Costa Rica and be faced with the challenge of squaring off with South America’s most recently successful club, Uruguay. A win for either side can guarantee advancement in to the next round but in a game with two very equal clubs, the draw is where the value lies.


Honduras +1032 over France

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 20.64)

June 15, 3:00 PM EST. France and Honduras have never met before on any pitch. This is the inaugural collision between the European dynasty and their up and coming South American counterparts. Astonishingly, betting on Honduras can net any taker a handsome bounty if they dare offer at the massive take-back.

Comparing the FIFA Rankings, France is slotted at number 17 overall. Honduras is ranked 33rd. This by no means implies that France is twice as good as Honduras or does this cast a shadow of impunity in Honduras’ qualification. The presumption is that France will win the match because they are a perennial European power, however not so long ago, the expectation of French superiority greatly diminished. Teams like Belgium and Greece usurped the French in the rankings and were suddenly held in higher distinction. With these notions considered, Greece and Belgium on average are lesser of a favorite against less quality opponents overall. Honduras should by no means be a heavy underdog, as their body of work en route to the World Cup was exquisite.

The Hondurans pummeled fellow qualifier Costa Rica, they defeated America in the aggregate and they were a problem for Mexico. None of the three teams could come up with a win against Honduras. In fact, Honduras outscored these opponents 5-3. America is a 13th ranked football club, Mexico is ranked 19th respectively. Without question, Honduras can compete against top twenty opponents and France is no different. On a neutral pitch, Honduras is very capable of pulling off an upset. With a better than 10-1 incentive to the bold souls willing to place the bet, a victory by Honduras could be a sweet return on an enticing investment. Choosing Honduras with these odds may very well turn out to be the steal of the first week of the FIFA World Cup. Huge overlay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

(951) Chicago Cubs -$104

(Risking $103 to win $100) (Action)


1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

(969) Toronto Blue Jays -$115

(Risking $115 to win $100) (Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Mariners -125
50* Dodgers -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

9*Detroit Tigers-1½+111

This game features the 32-33 Twins and the 34-29 Tigers. Big time mismatch in this game as this is the first time this season I have taken a -1.5 as I just hate laying points. Twins have won 3 straight and are due for a let down today. Tigers are hungry and have the much better pitcher in Anibal Sanchez who is 2-2 with a 2.24 ERA. Take the hungry team here -1.5 for plus money 9* profit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Rangers/Mariners
Over 7.5

While we don't play as many MLB totals as some, we were able to cash a freebie last night with the Giants bullpen implosion in the ninth inning as the Giants and Rockies went over the number. We are looking at another nice totals play for Saturday MLB when the Texas Rangers and lefty Joe Saunders (0-2, 3.60) face off with Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 5.97) and the Seattle Mariners. Ramirez has really been a disappointment for the M's his season and he has been hit hard in the majority of his starts. In games between these two clubs, the OVER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Seattle and the OVER is also 9-2 in the Rangers last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record. We see Ramirez getting hit hard again tonight and Saunders is looking for his first win of the season. We think this one is going OVER the posted total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2005 as a road favorite after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base individually for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Yovani Gallardo starts the Brewers are 14-0 since June 24, 2010 as a home favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1400.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Red Sox are 2-17-1 OU since May 19, 2013 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. 2-6-1 this season.

CHOICE TREND:

The Rockies are 0-11 since September 05, 2012 as a dog when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter in a win for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Ryan Vogelsong starts the Giants are 13-2 since September 21, 2011 as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches last start for a net profit of $1060.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PowerplayWins

Power Play of The Day

Seattle Mariners (-117)
Pitcher: Ramirez
Game time: 7:00:00 PM (PST)