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MLB Weekend betting cheat sheet: McCarthy burning bettors bad
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend’s major league action:
Under Struck
Under bettors were handsomely rewarded Thursday with the most emphatic result of the season, as teams combined to go 1-11 O/U. Only one team scored more than five runs – the New York Yankees (-102, O 9), who fended off Toronto 6-4 in the lone over result of the day.
Minor Issue
Atlanta Braves lefthander Mike Minor enters Friday’s game against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals at +157 – his longest odds since June 18, 2012. Minor is 0-3 against the moneyline in three career starts as an underdog of +150 or greater.
McCarthy Era a Bad One
Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy will look to reverse a horrible trend Saturday as he and the Diamondbacks welcome the San Francisco Giants. McCarthy enters the weekend ranked last in the majors in value ($-1,252), with Arizona going a woeful 2-13 in his starts so far this season.
Tanaka Means Quality
New York Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has an impressive streak going as he prepares to face the visiting Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Tanaka has opened his career with 14 consecutive quality starts, racking up five double-digit strikeout efforts over that span.
Pitching Notes
* Kansas City ace James Shields hopes his teammates will continue providing plenty of run support Friday against visiting Seattle (+108, 7). Kansas City has scored six or more runs in eight of his last 11 starts, guiding him to a 10-1 mark against the moneyline and a 9-2 O/U record over that span.
* Chicago White Sox righty Andre Rienzo was once the highest-value starter in baseball, but will be looking to halt a personal four-game losing skid Saturday against host Minnesota. Rienzo has been an underdog in all 10 of his starts to date, and is 6-4 against the moneyline in those games.
* Detroit Tigers fireballer Max Scherzer will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season Sunday as he squares off against host Cleveland. Scherzer, who surrendered 10 runs over 4 1/3 innings last time out, is 8-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Indians.
Hitting Notes
* Cleveland outfielder Nick Swisher hit a game-winning grand slam Thursday, halting a 2-for-24 slump during which he struck out 10 times. The Indians are 4-1 SU and 3-2 O/U in games in which Swisher goes deep entering Friday’s tilt with the Tigers (+115, 8.5).
* Don’t expect a home run barrage with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright on the mound against Philadelphia Saturday. Members of the Phillies roster have combined for zero home runs in 131 career at-bats against Wainwright, striking out 32 times in the process.
* Sunday will feature a marquee pitcher-batter matchup as Texas ace Yu Darvish faces Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels. Trout has gotten the better of Darvish to date, batting .290 with four home runs in 31 career at-bats.
Totals Streak
San Diego Padres (0-5-1 O/U): Sound familiar? The Padres continue to confound oddsmakers, racking up six consecutive games in which they either scored or allowed one or fewer runs. San Diego is far and away the strongest Under bet in the league to date at 23-46-4 O/U.
Prop of the Day
Bettors may want to consider taking the Houston Astros to score first against Tampa Bay, a prop that pays -110. The Rays are the worst first-inning team in baseball, scoring just 22 times while batting a paltry .194.
Injury Notes
* Atlanta Braves hurler Gavin Floyd suffered a fractured elbow Thursday night and is out indefinitely. Floyd was solid in nine starts in his first season with the Braves, going 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts; the Braves were 5-4 SU and 3-6 O/U in those contests.
* Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz (knee) is expected to rejoin the major-league rotation sometime next week. Buchholz is 2-4 with a 7.03 ERA in 10 starts with the Red Sox, who are 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 O/U in those outings.
* Seattle Mariners DH Corey Hart (hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment this weekend. Hart has been out since mid-May, with the Mariners going 16-14 SU, 8-20-2 O/U and earning 290 units in his absence.
Weather Watch
* Wind at Wrigley Field will blow in from center field at 8 mph for Friday afternoon’s tilt between the host Cubs (+115) and Pittsburgh Pirates. Teams combined to score 7.7 runs with two homers in 10 games under similar conditions in 2013, down slightly from the stadium averages.
* Fans at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday afternoon will be greeted by wind blowing out to left field at 8 mph. Only one Royals home game last season featured wind blowing out to left – and it resulted in a 1-0 Kansas City victory.
* Busch Stadium is expected to see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for Sunday’s game between host St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Cardinals went 7-2 SU while averaging 6.22 runs in nine games under similar conditions a season ago.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 16-5 in umpire Adrian Johnson’s last 21 games calling balls and strikes. Johnson will be behind home plate for Friday’s game between the Cardinals (-160, 7.5) and Phillies.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:55 a.m. ET Friday.
T.G.I.F Plays include the A.L. Total Of the Month from a 100% System that averages 13 runs. A 19-2 Late night power system and the World cup Game of the Week with 2 perfect Angles. Free MLB matinee totals play.
On Friday the free MLB Matinee Totals System play is on the over in the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs game. Rotation numbers 951/952 at 4:05 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system that has gone over 18 of 23 times for road favorites like the pirates off a home win where they had 10 or more hits and are taking on an opponent, like the Cubs that are off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits. The Pirates have played over all 4 times on the road off a home win and in 4 of their last 5 overall. The Pirates have been hot since calling up Prized prospect Gregory Polanco and are scoring over 5 runs per game on .322 hitting the past week. In the series here the last 3 have played over all with 9+ runs scored. C. Morton is on the mound for the Pirates and he has gone over in his last 3 starts and allowed 6 runs in 5 innings here earlier. E. Jackson goes for the Cubs and he has also gone over in his last 3 starts with a 6.32 era. He allowed 6 runs in 4+ innings here earlier in the season. Look for this one to go over the total here today. On Friday we have a Powerful card that has the 100% A.L. Total of the Month, a 19-2 Late night System play and the World Cup Game of the Week. Jump on now as we start the weekend big with the Finest data available. For the free MLB play take Pittsburgh and Chicago over the total. GC
Philadelphia(33-38) vs. St. Louis(39-34). A.J. Burnett(4-6) ERA 4.17 vs. J.Garcia(3-0) ERA 3.72. The Phillies are 1-4 last 5 games against left handers and 1-4 last 5 meetings in St.Louis. The Cardinals are 7-3 last 10 Garcia home starts against teams with losing records and have won 8 of last 11 games. St.Louis is a 7 Unit Play!
Vegas SI
FRIDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)
20* MLB Royals -135 and 10* MLB OVER 7
20* MLB Mets +125 and 10* MLB UNDER 7.5
20* MLB Yankees -135 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5
20* MLB Twins -120 and 10* MLB OVER 9
20* MLB Angels -1.5 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5
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