6-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers +138

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

MLB

3* Pittsburgh -120
2* Cards -160
2* Brewers -105
1* Washington -1.5 +130
1* SF +100
1* Reds -145
1* Over 9 CHW / MIN
1* Over 7.5 PHI / STL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Insiders

4* Play

Miami -142

Our system loves the Marlins tonight at home. They are coming to this game after being shutout by Wheeler last night. Matsuzaka takes the mound for the Mets tonight and our system grades him as one of the most overrated starting pitchers in baseball. He owns an ERA that is a lot lower than it should be... On the other side we have Alverez who is slightly underrated. The Mets bats have really struggled and tonight should be no different as Alverez throws a fastball on 61% of occurrences and the Mets sit in the bottom 5. Alverez also throws a slider on 15% of occasions which the Mets hit the worst in baseball. I honestly don't see this game being close as the Mets won't be able to keep up with the Marlins. I will be making a play on the money line as well! Final Score 5-2

3* Play

Atlanta and Washington Under 7

We have Minor vs Stratsburg tonight in Washington and a great spot for the under play! Both pitchers per our system are gravely underrated. When we have a top notch pitcher against one of the poorer hitting teams in baseball leads to a huge play. Minor should have some success against the Nats as they are just an average fasetball hitting team and are quite poor against both the slider, curveball, and change up which Minor throws 15%, 13%, and 10%, respectively. We see a final score of 3-2 which would result in an easy under play.

Seattle and Kansas City Under 7.5

Similar to the Braves and Nationals game we have two top tier pitchers against two teams who really don't hit the ball all that well. Both Iwakuma and Shields are slightly undervalued which should lead to an easy under game in this one. Iwakuma throws a lot of sliders and split fingers which the Royals really struggle against. Shields has struggled at home being a Royal but should have no problem against the poor hitting Mariners. We have a final score pegged at 3-2 as well.

2* Plays

San Fransisco +107

Miami -1.5 +160

1* Plays

LAD -106

Seattle +120

Milwaukee and Colorado Under 10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Tigers have struggled as of late but put their best pitcher so far this season out tonight against the Indians. Porcello is 8-4 with an ERA just over 4.00. He opposes Kluber who has also pitched well and is 6-4 with a 3.35 ERA, but his last two starts he has not made it through the 6th inning. The Tigers are in an unfamiliar position, second place and look to right the ship coming off a win against Kansas City last night. We will gladly take Detroit at this number as we look for another good effort here. The Sharps say....

3 UNITS - DETROIT TIGERS (+140)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks.


CarsonK - 1* Yankees (ML), Yankees (RL), Phillies, Braves


Bruno Bets - 2* Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Indians are 13-0 since May 08, 2013 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $1300.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Mat Latos starts the Reds are 13-0 since May 27, 2012 at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and 3 or fewer runs for a net profit of $1300.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Nationals are 0-16-1 OU since August 24, 2011 when they were shutout last game with 3-6 hits while allowing less than nine runs. 0-6-1 this season!

CHOICE TREND:

The Braves are 9-0 since September 24, 2008 as a dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1205.

ACTIVE TREND:

When Tim Lincecum starts the Giants are 1-11 since June 29, 2011 on the road after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1011 when playing against.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win free MLB Pick:

1* GAME - PHI @ STL: Cardinals ML (-165: Risking 1.65 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (N/A)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

N.Y. Mets @ MIAMI

N.Y. Mets/MIAMI over 7½ +100

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Take Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 3-0 record and 2.81 ERA and combine it with Henderson Alvarez’s overall 2.56 ERA and 1.62 ERA at home and you get a total that is very beatable. Matsuzaka’s impressive 2.81 ERA was compiled primarily in relief but a 4.38 xERA and awful skills show that he's been nothing but pure luck. He's also been much less impressive on the road, with a 5.06 ERA. Matsuzaka has faced the Marlins twice this season and has issued 4 walks and allowed 2 ER in only 1.3 IP. In 42 innings overall, Matsuzaka has walked 30 batters. Over his last 23 frames, he’s walked 14. He's walking batters at an unacceptable rate (6.1/9). Also his numbers have been helped by a low hit rate (22%) and a relatively high strand rate (79%). In summarizing, Matsuzaka’s velocity is now sub-90 mph 2+ years after TJS. His control is still woefully sub-par, he has a scary fly-ball% history. This guy is performing a high wire act and the wind is beginning to pick up. “Dice-K” may not last three innings and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Marlins have a .270 BA and .759 OPS at home, both second best in the NL.

Last weekend we played the Marlins/Pirates to go over 7½ when Henderson Alvarez went up against Vance Worley. The final score was 3-2 but the two teams combined for 18 hits and stranded a combined 19 base-runners. Once again, everything bounced Alvarez’s way. Alvarez comes into this start with a 2.56 ERA after 14 games started but we’re insisting it cannot last. He has just 56 K’s in 88 innings and his 1.28 WHIP is worse than the league average. Only half of his 14 starts have been of the pure quality variety but a remarkable and extremely lucky 91% strand rate since the beginning of May has kept his ERA in check. Alvarez’s surface stats may be the most misleading in the game. His skills say a serious ERA correction is forthcoming and we’ll attempt to cash in on that ERA correction once again. In the unlikely event that Alvarez throws another lucky gem, the Marlins may go over this number on their own.


Seattle @ KANSAS CITY

Seattle +122 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

After a major winning streak finally comes to an end you often see consecutive losses and we’ll put that to the test here. The angle is that there is a major letdown after such a hot run, as the players’ extreme focus decreases significantly and it may take a game or two to get it back. After a 6-1 road trip through Chicago and Detroit, two Central Division rivals, the Royals are certainly in danger of suffering a letdown in this opener. The enticing, cheap price on the hottest team in baseball with their most recognizable starter going suggests the oddsmakers are expecting letdown also. The Royals have won James Shields’ last eight straight starts and it’s not because Shields has been dazzling, it’s because he’s getting major run support. The Royals have scored five runs or more in seven of those eight starts and Shields has improved from a 3-3 record to an 8-3 record over that stretch. The record is misleading and so is Shields’ 3.50 ERA. Shields’ has struggled for most of the year and especially so over the past month with a 5.34 ERA in his past five starts. Overall he has an oppBA of .271 and he’s been tagged for 12 jacks already in 98 innings. Over his last six starts, Shields’ has posted an ugly 1.68 WHIP and he has a 22% hr/f with runners on base, the highest mark of any pitcher in the AL. Shields’ swing and miss rate is showing a significant decrease also, as it has gone from 11% in April, to 10% in May and is down to 8% this month. We’re seeing the signs of a fatigued pitcher, much like we saw in the second half of last season when Shields suffered some real skills erosion, notably to his groundball and strikeout rates. This year, add HR’s allowed to that skills erosion. Incidentally, the Mariners have the 5th best road BA in the AL.

Hisashi Iwakuma’s groundball arm built on last year's second half gains to finish in AL's Top Three in ERA/WHIP. His first half featured airtight control and superb command that he couldn't quite sustain. Even so, take that second half and throw in equal success vL/vR and home/road and you get one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Iwakuma has seven pure quality outings in nine starts. He has a 2.49 ERA on the road and in his one start against the Royals last season he allowed no earned runs in 8 IP. Iwakuma also has an elite groundball rate of 56% and a rock-solid BB/K split of 6/47 in 66 innings. At 33, it’s tough to dub him an ace but we’re not paying an ace price in this one either. The Mariners are in a better situational spot than the Royals, they have a better starter going and they’re getting a tag. That works.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Portfolio

MLB

Under 8.5 -115 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians
Miami Marlins -148
Minnesota Twins -148
Over 8.5 +100 Boston Red Sox/Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels -183

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Cleveland Indians -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#953: Braves: +160 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Minor / Strasburg

#971: Mariners: +115 1*
Listed Pitchers: Iwakuma / Shields


Totals

#961/962: Over Diamondbacks: 9.0 (+100) 2.5*
Listed Pitchers: Lincecum / Collmenter

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Betting Champ-MLB System Bets 6/20
Official system bets:

Washington Nationals {B} Bet (bet on Money Line)

Detroit Tigers {A} bet (bet on +1.5 Run Line)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brady Kannon | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 960 COL (-110) vs 959 MIL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Atlanta Over 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Colorado