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Wow what a interesting night last night. We hit our 4* play on the Marlins in interesting fashion as they had the game in hand but gave up 2 runs in the top of the 8th which cost us our run line play on them. The Braves blew a two run lead in the bottom of the 9th to cost us our 3* play on the under in that game. So as a result we hit our 4* play again but took a huge hit to our units by losing 7 last night. We bounce back in a huge way with the run line game of the month, another 4* play. We are 3-0 on our 4* plays this year and look to continue the streak
4* Run line GOM
Kansas City -1.5 +120
This is the spot we have been looking for all month with the Royals taking on the Mariners. The Royals are surging winning 8 out of the last 10 and are coming into this game pissed off after losing the game in the top of the 9th. The Mariners bring Chris Young to the mound who has been sensational this year if you look at his stats. A record of 6-4 to go along with an ERA of 3.40 however per our system he is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball. The top level stats just don't add up and he is bound for a huge regression and our system calls for that today against the Royals. Vargas is also having a great year with a 7-2 record and ERA of 3.25 however unlike Young the underlying stats back up his performances. Vargas is 4-1 as a home favorite in his last 5 outings and this should continue with no problem. As you know Vargas is a fastball first and then change up pitcher which should do him well today against one of the worst change up hitting teams in baseball. Our system calls for Young to get battered and Vargas to do enough to win and turn it over to one of the better bullpens in baseball who is pissed off after giving up the game last night. Kansas City 6 Seattle 3
2* Play
White Sox +110
This may be a tough play for a lot of us to make as Rienzo as he has lost 4 start starts and has an ERA north of 5.5 but really like this spot against the Twins. Rienzo is gravely underrated according to our system and seems to be a great spot today. If Rienzo can keep his walks down which is always an issue he should be able to get a quality start against the poor cutter hitting Twins. Rienzo is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts and our system points to a victory today. White Sox 5 Twins 3
What is going on with the cellar dwelling Cubs? Chicago is a NL-best 18-13 since May 17 and have won nine of their last 11 at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh has dropped four of five but have won five straight series against the Cubs and eight of the last nine series at Chicago. The Pirates are 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and will start Vance Worley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who is making just his second start since August of 2011.
I'm taking a bit of a chance here with this dog. I know De La Rosa hasn't done well on the road. But his last start, Rubby went 7in only giving up 1 hit and 0 runs. So at this price i think it's worth a chance. Oakland will send out Chavez. Who i feel Boston can smack around and finally do some damage with their bats. Plus you know darn well the public will be all over the A's in this one. It may just be the bookie in me, but i like Boston in this one, at a nice price.
Everyone and their mother will be taking the Nat's in this one. I think the pitching match-up is pretty even. So I'll just fade the public and take the hot team.
Colorado ML (+119) vs Milwaukee The Brewers won a wild 13-10 game last night, and one wonders what's left in those bats after such an offensive display. Wily Peralta is hoping not much, but history would suggest otherwise. He has not faced the Rockies this year, but over the past 3 seasons, but in his one and only start in Coors Field last year, he lasted just 3.2 innings, surrendered 8 runs (5 earned), all on 7 hits and 3 walks (WHIP was 2.73). In his career, he is 0-2 against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA, 2.11 WHIP and .371 BAA. Peralta has been tagged pretty good in his last 4 starts (his one good outing was against the very light hitting Mets), surrendering 14 runs in 24 innings (5.25 ERA). Colorado counters with Christian Friedrich who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2012. His numbers were not impressive back then, but a couple of things play into his favor here. First, he has never pitched against the Brewers. No one on the Milwaukee roster has ever batted against Friedrich, so that creates an advantage to the pitcher. Second, Milwaukee has not hit lefties this year. So while the Brewers are one of the better hitting teams in baseball, they do not hit lefties (.260 overall and .234 vs lefties). I look for the Rockies to bounce back today and get the W. And we get the privilege of doing so at a good price.
Leans
Detroit ML (+111) at Cleveland JV as an underdog? Interesting that the books finally caught up to this. Just a hunch, because I know he's lost a lot of velocity, but I think he throws a gem today. Be careful about betting against JV today.
San Francisco ML (+107) at Arizona The Giants are just playing terrible ball right now, but McCarthy for Arizona is practically at auto fade status right now. Vogelsong has actually been pitching reasonably well lately. Giants find a way to get the W today.
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