6-23-14

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Sports Junkies (free play)

06/23 FREE PLAY32-16-3 L/51 FREE PLAYS!!Nationals vs Brewers (8:10 pm est.)
$100 MLB Play: Nationals ML +106 (Bovada)

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EZ WINNERS

2* Blue Jays -122

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Paul Leiner

100* Yankees +100

50* Phillies -110

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 6/23

4-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals (-110) over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST)

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MLB weekend series: Five key takeaways
by DAVID MALINSKY

It is time to take an inside look at the pitches and swings from the MLB weekend series, isolating those key edges that can put you far ahead of the marketplace, and build your bankroll in the days ahead.

A’s – Sean Doolittle, does a lot

Did you see Sean Doolittle coming? No reason to feel bad if you didn’t; even the A’s themselves did not anticipate it. Which makes it a prime time to talk about just how shockingly good he has been.

One of the earliest columns of this season dealt with Oakland’s hopes that Jim Johnson would be the answer at closer, but there were doubts from this end because of how he had been overworked by Baltimore. It was a move the A’s made because they were not sure how good Doolittle was, or how ready, and it was among the rare personnel mistakes from this franchise in recent years. Johnson’s season has gone from bad to worse, with a 5.58 ERA, including nearly as many BB (17) as K’s (19), and he is becoming insignificant, having been given one save opportunity in over two months.

Enter Doolittle. First, one can excuse the talent evaluators for missing the boat, because it was not until after two knee surgeries in 2010 that relief pitching became his aim, first in the Arizona Fall League in 2011. He blazed his way through the Minors in 2012, literally, with ridiculous K/command rates (48 over 25 IP, vs. only seven BB). Then over 2012-13 he worked 116 1/3 IP in The Show, mostly low leverage, but when called on to close he was not successful, converting only three of nine save chances. So despite 120 K’s vs. 24 BB through that span, his failure in pressure settings made the acquisition of a proven closer an off-season priority. Johnson simply was not the right one, but indirectly that may have turned out quite well for the Oakland future. It led to Doolittle getting another opportunity for the role, and he has been absurdly good.

The overall numbers tell the tale – a 2.00 ERA, converting 10 of 11 save opportunities, and the historic 50 K’s vs. only 1 BB over 36 IP (no previous pitcher in the 20th or 21st Centuries had made it to 50 K’s with a lone BB). But if we isolate to his current stretch, it reaches a rare Baseball realm. Doolittle had a dismal outing at Houston on April 26, giving up hits to all four batters that he faced, and each of them came around to score in an Oakland loss. Instead of it shattering his confidence, it ignited a flame.

Flame is the proper word, because it is the high hard stuff that hitters have not been able to catch up to. Since that bad outing vs. the Astros he has dealt a 0.00 over 22 appearances (24 1/3 IP), with astounding rates of 37 K’s vs. only six hits and 1 BB (Tampa’s Ryan Hanigan, back on May 20). And since May 10 he has retired 57 of 61 batters, 29 via K’s. But while K’s often bring inflated pitch counts that can wear someone down, in the two series vs. Texas and Boston last week he needed just 40 pitches through four frames, despite striking out half of the batters he faced. And while fans might have been disappointed that he did not get a strikeout on Saturday, be dispatched three Red Sox batters on only seven pitches.

Projecting him going forward is not easy – no one has ever maintained these dominance levels over an extended period. But he is the rarity of a left-handed closer throwing high heat, and that will mean continued matchup advantages; it will take quite some time before individual hitters get enough looks at him to be able to settle in. He is also a work in progress, with only 178 1/3 professional innings under his belt, so there is the frightening aspect that this may not even be his best stuff yet. His development could be that final piece to an awfully strong Oakland puzzle.

Angels – The Closer search, in late June

While the A’s have found their answer for the closer role, Mike Scioscia is still in need of Rolaids. Perhaps literally, given the way the late innings have been faring for his bullpen. While Oakland will be difficult to chase down, the Angels lead the AL Wild Card race, which is fitting for a team that is #3 in RPG, based on #5 in both SLG and OPS. They are going to hit. And a starting rotation that sits at 3.53, #8 in the majors, can buy that offense enough innings to click most nights. It has been from the mound-work in the latter stages where things have gone wrong.

The Angel bullpen sports a 4.49 ERA that rates #26. Despite having 41 wins there have only been 16 saves, with only five teams worse (and those five are a collective 50 games under .500). Only the Pirates have more blown saves, and there have been nine losses after leading in the 7th inning or later, more than any other team.

The problem is that it is not just one or two performers having bad campaigns that could turn around, but the fact that the direction for the season was never really in place. They actually came in with as much “hope” as expectation that the pieces were there. Ernestso Frieri can challenge hitters with his heat (a career 12.1 K-per-9), but his league-low ground-ball rate is a danger zone for a closer. He has been roughed up to an 0-3/5.83 with three blown saves, allowing eight HR over just 29 1/3 IP, and that latter count extends to 19 over just 98 IP the L2 seasons. When he gets his next opportunity will be a question – he did not work in the Texas series, after a dismal road trip in which he was rocked for six runs over 1.1 IP, allowing hits to eight of the 13 batters he faced, culminating with the Nick Swisher grand slam in Cleveland on Thursday.

But where can Scioscia turn? Joe Smith can be an effective set-up man with the ground-balls he generates, but has already failed on four of 12 save chances, and is far too vulnerable vs. left-handed hitters. Kevin Jepsen lacks the control (4.3 BB-per-9), and has already blown a pair of saves in six tries. Cam Bedrosian got the chance twice on that recent road trip, and failed both times after being rushed to the Majors, not having thrown a single pitch at the AAA level (Baseball generously credits him with a “hold” for that dismal outing in Cleveland, when three of the four batters he faced came around to score).

There is not a good answer on this roster for a team with the talent to contend in the other departments. Which means that the Angel closer for the stretch run of the pennant chase is likely wearing another uniform right now (Huston Street?). Until such a deal happens you will need to navigate carefully when it looks like they brings a Play-On setting – the focus can be on the First Five Innings to negate those closer issues, or if it is a favorable matchup for the offense vs. an opposing starter, making Over a part of your portfolio.

Phillies – Cole Hamels, and the elusiveness of Wins

Hamels will get one more start before June turns into July, but a case can already be made that he has been the best starter in the Majors this month, a tidy 0.73 over 37 IP, with 40 K’s vs. only 27 hits allowed. But that falls under the radar a bit because he only has one win over those five starts. Baseball does that, through short samples. What has happened to Hamels since the start of the 2013 season is an entirely different matter.

This past Saturday afternoon at St. Louis was one of those typical heart-breakers for a pitcher. Hamels matched St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright pitch-for-pitch, with the game tied 1-1 into the bottom of the 8th. He ended up on the wrong end of a 4-1 defeat, wearing down as he reached 120 pitches, but also again a victim of a lack of support. Of the meager seven total bases the Philadelphia offense managed in the game, he provided three himself (a single and a double). But this is not anything new.

Hamels has worked to a sharp 2.76 over 13 starts this season, but has only two wins, with the Phillies going 4-9. Over the past two seasons he has dealt at a solid 3.37, yet has only been credited with a 10-18 personal W/L, with a dismal 17-29 for the team. To get 10 wins out of 46 starts at that allowance rate is not easy; there were 19 games in that span in which he allowed two ER or less, and was not rewarded.

Let’s establish some perspective. If we track all qualifying pitchers since the start of 2013, the three directly above him on the ERA charts are Jered Weaver, John Lackey and James Shields. They have gone 57-43. The three below him are C. J. Wilson, Patrick Corbin and Derek Holland. They have gone 48-30 (a lower count due to Corbin and Holland being on the DL this season). Hamels is in the middle of a group that has generated a 105-73 W/L mark, which shows how much of an outlier his 10-18 is. And contrast the 146-101 record of the teams involved, vs. the 17-29 for the Phillies.

When rating Hamels, all that should matter is the way that he has pitched, and not the final scores, especially those $$$ +/- charts. Had you wagered on every one of his starts this season you would be -$459, and over the L2 seasons it is -$2025. Those are dramatic numbers, but of no correlation to his performance level, and hence of precious little predictive value. If the markets attach weight to them and create a counterfeit currency, it could mean some “play on” value for his upcoming starts, especially with the slow NL East pace through the first couple of 2014 furlongs keeping the Phillies in the hunt, which should ultimately lead to better play behind him.

Cardinals – When power takes a (Matt) Holliday

This is going to be a challenging road trip for Mike Matheny and the Cardinals, getting on the plane without Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia from the starting rotation, both being placede on the DL. The task is made more difficult by the St. Louis offensive struggles, with one of the keys to being above .500 the fact that there have been four 1-0 wins already. Perhaps no one is more important to watch the next few days than Holliday, in his return to Coors Field.

Issues of the Cardinal offense were dealt with in an important earlier take, noting that their run production level in 2013 was far beyond the usual distribution for their base production, and a downgrade was in order. As the season progresses it has been quite a drop – only the Rays, Braves and Padres have scored fewer RPG. But it is not just Baseball being Baseball, and some of those 2013 bounces evening out; instead there are genuine concerns about the dip in power from Holliday.

To call Holliday a model of consistency through the years is an understatement – since joining the Cardinals his full-season BA has been between .295 and .312 each campaign, the OBA range from .379 to .394, and SLG from .490 to .532. His HR counts were 28, 22, 27 and 22, and his BB% ranged from a low of 10.2 to a high of 11.6. So while he turned 35 this past January, that consistency gave no indication of any imminent decline.

But decline has been the story. Through 74 games and 323 PA’s his swings have only generated a .261/.372/.382 line. It is the latter count that is the most alarming – it is more than 100 points below any previous season, and he has only five HR. It got to the point where Matheny penciled him in at #2 in the batting order on Sunday, the first time in that slot since 2010.

The Cardinals badly need power from Holliday, because it will come from few other slots in the lineup – they are tied with Kansas City for the fewest HR in the Majors with 42, and no other team has less than 53. It is even more important with the pitching staff facing those issues on this road trip. Hence, why the spotlight shines on him, starting Monday night in Denver. Holliday has belted out a .359/.426/.655 over his career in Coors Field, with 91 HR in 373 games. He will be up against a struggling pitching staff, with the Rockies not even knowing their Wednesday starter yet. A power surge in this park vs. those pitchers may not necessarily mean much, but the lack of a power surge could turn out to mean plenty.

Giants – Matt Cain, no longer “Lord of the Flies”

In reviewing the MLB weekday series a few days ago there was a take on Buster Posey’s declining power counts, and how that would be a particular issue for the Giants over the course of the summer, because of the struggles of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in the starting rotation. Lincecum’s declining stuff was dealt with earlier in the season (you can click the link to the same column that focused on Jim Johnson above), but while Cain did not work this past weekend, his patterns are becoming established pretty clearly, so it is an appropriate time to re-define him as well. Especially since he is about to get MLB’s easiest matchup, a home game vs. the Padres, which can keep the markets a step behind.

Cain has put together a solid MLB career despite only having good, and not great, stuff, basically surviving by being a fly-ball pitcher on the West Coast, where a guy can make a good living out of that. There have been earlier takes here on Jered Weaver and Chris Young, and how modern metrics such as xFIP get blurred vision through their out distributions. Cain has been the same – in each of his first eight seasons his ERA was lower than his xFIP, three times by more than a full run. He appeared to be getting lucky consistently, with a career BABIP of .263, but fly-balls are turned into outs at a higher rate than ground-balls; the key is to keep them in the park, where the fielders can get a glove at them. After over 1,800 MLB innings, that key for Cain is no longer opening the locks the way it once did.

Cain fell off to 8-10/4.00 in 2013, only his second losing campaign, and his highest ERA since his first full season back in 2006. His K-per-9 was above his career average and his BB-per-9 was below it, both positives, and his BABIP checked in at a favorable .260 again. No sign of decline there, but his HR/FB rate was 10.8 percent, the highest of his career. Now 2014 brings a 1-5/4.52 so far, and some of the peripherals are disturbing. First note that his 6.9 K-per-9 would be a career low (not counting 2005, when he only made seven starts), while his 3.4 BB-per-9 would be the highest since 2008. His Swinging Strike rate is also at a career bottom. But the big alarm is again the HR/FB rate, now up to 15.1. While that might seem like an outlier that could pull back, for a veteran with a good track record, it marks the third straight season in which it has risen appreciably. There is something to be said for that. And to have the highest ERA of his career, despite a favorable .249 BABIP, is a genuine warning – his FIP of 5.02 is more than a run higher than any other full season, and his xFIP is the highest since 2008.

Cain will not completely implode because he is a crafty competitor, and can still get away with fly-balls from his home mound, plus those division road parks in Los Angeles and San Diego. But there is no appreciable reason for him to return to his past form – this simply might be who he is right now.

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INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)

3* Chicago Cubs-110

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ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)

2* St. Louis Cardinals -115

1* SF Giants-140

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GOODFELLA

Monday Night MLB Team Total

CINCINNATI REDS – OVER 3.5 RUNS (@BOL)

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RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Orioles host the White Sox in Camden Yards today to start a 3 game series and will send Wei-Yin to the mound opposing Chris Sale. Chen benefits from a 6.59 run-support average that is among the best marks in the majors. He hasn’t lost since May 3, going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA in his last eight outings after giving up three runs over 6 2/3 innings last Monday in a 5-4 loss at Tampa Bay. Sale is pitching well also (6-1, 2.20) and limiting hitters to a .171 average and enters after giving up three runs over six innings Wednesday to earn a 7-6 victory over San Francisco. A real pitchers duel, however, the Orioles have won all three of Chen’s starts against the White Sox, with the southpaw going 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA. The Sharps like the home doggie here. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+103)

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ROBERT FERRINGO (World Cup Soccer)

1* ESP -1 (-140)

1* CHI/NET – Over 2.5

2* BRA -2.5 (+110)
2* BRA -1.5 (-210)

2.5* MEX (+175)
2.5* CRO (+180)
1* MEX/CRO – Over 2.5

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ALLEN EASTMAN (MLB)

7-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7 p.m., Monday, June 23)

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EZWINNERS

2* Blue Jays -122

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MAGIC MIKE PICKS

Pittsburg Pirates

Baltimore Orioles

Croatia (WC)

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Kevin's Pick(s):
A good way to bounce back from a rough Friday as I went 3-0 Saturday and Sunday, including a 5 Star winner yesterday with the Dodgers winning 2-1. Kyle and I used the Dodgers in back to back 5 Star winners. Lets keep it going here on Monday.
2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers - BREWERS TO WIN (-123)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs Garza
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.63 units)
The Brewers enter this series coming off a road trip where they went 6-1, and they've won 4 straight games to boost their record to 47-30 on the season and 20-15 at home. The Nats are 39-35 on the year and 16-18 on the road and are coming off a split over the weekend with the Braves at home (winning their last two games). Gio Gonzalez will take the mound for Washington and he is 3-4 on the year with a 4.85 ERA, .255 OBA and 1.37 WHIP. On the road he is just 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA, and over his last three games he has an ERA of 11.68. Matt Garza will counter for Milwaukee and he is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA, .249 OBA and 1.30 WHIP. He has been stellar at home with a 2.89 ERA, .236 OBA and 1.15 WHIP, and has posted a 2-0 record and 2.00 ERA over his 4 June starts. The Nationals are 0-4 int heir alst 4 road games, 16-40 in their last 56 games as a road underdog, and 0-4 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as a road underdog. The Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs lefty starters and 5-1 in Garza's last 6 home starts. I'm on the Brewers here tonight.

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs - REDS TO WIN (+106)
Listed Pitchers: Simon vs Samardzija
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)
The Reds won 2 of 3 over the weekend vs Toronto and have won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Chicago dropped their final two games vs Pittsburgh to drop to just 31-42 on the season. Alfredo Simon will get the ball for Cincinnati and he is 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA, .231 OBA and 1.11 WHIP. He is actually slightly better on the road with a 7-1 record, 2.66 ERA and .211 OBA away from home. He has faced the Cubs twice, winning both and holding the Cubs to just 1 unearned run over 6 innings of work at his start at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will counter with their ace Jeff Samardzija who is 2-6 with a 2.60 ERA, .242 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. He has been stellar at home with a 1.64 ERA, but his record is just 1-3 at home as he seems to always get little run support. Samardzija has been regressing a little bit lately going 1-2 with a 5.73 ERA over 4 June starts. He has faced the Reds twice, losing both games, but pitching pretty good in both. Note that the Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 7-1 in Simon's last 8 road starts (4-0 in his last 4 starts overall). The Cubs are just 16-40 in their last 56 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 6-21 in Samrdzija's last 27 starts overall and 3-13 in his last 16 home starts. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with the Cubs when Samardzija is on the mound, and they are 21-6 in their last 27 meetings in Chicago. I'll take the Reds as underdogs with Simon on the mound.

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York is 41-32 when playing in the month of June the last three seasons
New York is 96-82 vs. division opponents the last three seasons
New York is 79-54 when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs


10* Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)

Washington is 64-42 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Washington is 39-32 when playing in the month of June the last three seasons
Washington is 33-26 when batting .225 or worse over the last ten games

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5* Play Miami +100 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Cincinnati +110 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PLAY)